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opencc-zeroApr 2022View details →

Evolution of thermal physiology alters the projected range of threespine stickleback under climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict range shifts but could be unreliable under climate change scenarios because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is a key determinant of range and thus incorporating thermal trait evolution into SDMs might be expected to alter projected ranges. We identified a genetic basis for physiological and behavioural traits that evolve in response to temperature change in natural populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Using these data, we created geographic range projections using a mechanistic niche envelope approach under two climate change scenarios. Under both scenarios, trait data was either static ('no evolution' model), allowed to evolve at observed evolutionary rates for the trait ('evolution' model), or allowed to evolve at a rate of evolution scaled in association with the variance that is explained by quantitative trait loci (QTL; 'scaled evolution' models). We show that incorporating these traits and their evolution substantially altered the projected ranges for a widespread panmictic marine population, with over 7-fold increases in area under climate change projections when traits are allowed to evolve. Evolution-informed SDMs should improve the precision of forecasting range dynamics under climate change, and aid in their application to management and the protection of biodiversity.

opencc-zeroDec 2021View details →

Re-assessment of the climatic controls on the carbon and water fluxes of a boreal aspen forest over 1996-2016: changing sensitivity to long-term climatic conditions

Recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and boreal tree growth are generally non-stationary; however, it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate and carbon (C) fluxes of boreal forests are stationary or have changed over recent decades. In this study, we used continuous eddy-covariance and microclimate data over 21 years (1996-2016) from a 100-year-old trembling aspen stand in central Saskatchewan, Canada to assess the relationships between climate and ecosystem C and water fluxes. Over the study period, the most striking climatic event was a severe, 3-year drought (2001-2003). Gross ecosystem production (GEP) showed larger interannual variability than ecosystem respiration (Re) over 1996-2016, but Re was the dominant component contributing to the interannual variation in net ecosystem production (NEP) during post-drought years. The inter-annual variations in evapotranspiration (ET) and C fluxes were primarily driven by temperature and secondarily by water availability. Two-factor linear models combining precipitation and temperature performed well in explaining the inter-annual variation in C and water fluxes (R2>0.5). The temperature dependence of all three C fluxes (NEP, GEP and Re) declined over 1996-2015 (p<0.05), and as a result, the phenological controls on annual NEP weakened. The decreasing temperature sensitivity of the C fluxes over 1996-2015 may reflect changes in forest structure, related to the over-maturity of the aspen stand at 100-years of age and exacerbated by high tree mortality following the severe 2001-2003 drought. These results may provide an early warning signal of driver shift or even an abrupt status shift of aspen forest dynamics. They may also imply a universal weakening in the relationship between temperature and GEP as forests become over-mature, associated with the structural and compositional changes that accompany forest ageing.

opencc-zeroDec 2022View details →

Data from: Underlying geology and climate interactively shape climate change refugia in mountain streams

Identifying climate-change refugia is a key adaptation strategy for reducing global warming impacts. Knowledge of the effects of underlying geology on thermal regime along climate gradients and the ecological responses to the geology-controlled thermal regime is essential to plan appropriate climate adaptation strategies. In the present study, the dominance of volcanic rocks in the watershed is used as a landscape-scale surrogate for cold groundwater inputs to clarify the importance of underlying geology in stream ecosystems along climate gradients. First, using hundreds of monitoring stations distributed across multiple catchments, we explored the relationship between watershed geology and the mean summer water temperature of mountain streams along climate gradients in the Japanese archipelago. Mean summer water temperature was explained by the interaction between the watershed geology and climate in addition to independent effects. The cooling effect supported by volcanic rocks reached up to 3.3°C among study regions, which was more pronounced in streams with less summer precipitation or lower air temperatures. Next, we examined the function of volcanic streams as cold refugia under contemporary and future climatic conditions. Community composition analyses revealed that volcanic streams hosted distinct stream communities composed of more cold-water species compared with non-volcanic streams. Scenario analyses based on multiple GCMs and RCPs revealed a geology-related pattern of thermal habitat loss for cold-water species. Non-volcanic streams rapidly declined in thermally suitable habitats for lotic sculpins even under the lowest emission scenario (RCP 2.6). In contrast, most volcanic streams will be sustained below the thermal threshold, especially for low and mid-level emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5). However, the distinct stream community in volcanic streams and geology-dependent habitat loss for lotic sculpins was not uniform and was more pronounced in streams with less summer precipitation or lower air temperatures. These findings highlight that underlying geology, climate variability, and their interaction should be considered simultaneously for effective management of climate-change refugia in mountain streams.

opencc-zeroMay 2022View details →

Dataset: Sanctions and international interaction improve cooperation to avert climate change

Imposing sanctions on non-compliant parties to international agreements is advocated as a remedy for international cooperation failure. Nevertheless, sanctions are costly, and rational choice theory predicts their ineffectiveness in improving cooperation. We test sanctions effectiveness experimentally in international collective-risk social dilemmas simulating efforts to avoid catastrophic climate change. We involve individuals from countries where sanctions were shown to be effective (Germany) or ineffective (Russia) in increasing cooperation. Here we show that, while this result still holds nationally, international interaction backed by sanctions is beneficial. Cooperation by low cooperator groups increases relative to national cooperation and converges to the levels of high cooperators. This result holds regardless of revealing other group members' nationality, suggesting that participants' specific attitudes or stereotypes over the other country were irrelevant. Groups interacting under sanctions contribute more to catastrophe prevention than what would maximise expected group payoffs. This behaviour signals a strong propensity for protection against collective risks.

opencc-by-4.0May 2022View details →

FOCI model output used in the study by Ivanciu et al. - On the ridging of the South Atlantic Anticyclone over South Africa: the impact of Rossby wave breaking and of climate change

This dataset contains the model output used in the analysis presented in the study by Ivanciu et al., 2022 - On the ridging of the South Atlantic Anticyclone over South Africa: the impact of Rossby wave breaking and of climate change. Four ensembles of three simulations each were performed with the global coupled climate model FOCI (Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure, Matthes et al., 2020). Details about the ensembles can be found in the above-mentioned publication. The files containing "past" in their name belong to the ensemble "PAST", the files containing "future" in their name belong to the ensemble "FUTURE", the files containing "future_GHG" in their name belong to the ensemble "GHG" and the files containing "future_Ozone" in their name belong to the ensemble "OZONE" from the publication.

opencc-by-4.0Nov 2021View details →

Data and code for: Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts

Data and code for "Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts," accepted in Ecological Monographs

opencc-zeroMay 2022View details →

Data from: Climate change is associated with increased allocation to potential outcrossing in a common mixed mating species

Premise: The balance between cross- and self-fertilization is driven by the environment. Yet no long-term study has documented whether anthropogenic climate change is affecting reproductive strategy allocation in species with mixed mating systems. Here, we test whether the common blue violet (Viola sororia; Violaceae) has altered relative allocation to the production of potentially outcrossing flowers as the climate has changed across the 20th century. Methods: Using herbarium records spanning 1875 to 2015 from the central United States, we quantified production of obligately selfing cleistogamous (CL) flowers and potentially outcrossing chasmogamous (CH) flowers by V. sororia, coupled these records with historic temperature and precipitation data, and tested whether changes to the proportion of CL flowers correlate with temporal climate trends. Results: We find that V. sororia progressively produced lower proportions of CL flowers across the past century and in environments with lower mean annual temperature and higher total annual precipitation. We also find that both CL and CH flower phenology has advanced across this time period. Conclusions: Our results suggest that V. sororia has responded to lower temperatures and greater water availability by shifting reproductive strategy allocation away from selfing and toward potential outcrossing. This provides the first long term study of how climate change may affect relative allocation to potential outcrossing in species with mixed mating systems. By revealing that CL flowering is associated with low water availability and high temperature, our results suggest the production of obligately selfing flowers is favored in water limited environments.

opencc-by-4.0Jan 2022View details →

Flood timing data for the paper "Climate Leads to Reversed Latitudinal Changes in Chinese Flood Peak Timing"

Flood timing data and derived flood objects used in the paper Climate Leads to Reversed Latitudinal Changes in Chinese Flood Peak Timing.

opencc-by-4.0May 2022View details →

Climate change threatens the distribution of major woody species and ecosystem services provision in southern Africa

Species occurrence points used in this study to investigate the effect of climate change on the distribution of eight tree species in 18 countries in southern Africa, covering 36% of the continent. We proposed a loser/winner ranking of the species based on the changes in climatic suitability within their historical distributions as well as future gains and losses of suitable areas. We interpreted these findings in terms of changes in the provision of key ES (timber, food, energy, and medicine), and identified hotspots of ES provision decline. We used species presence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, climatic data from the AfriClim dataset, and the MaXent algorithm to project the changes in species' land suitability.

opencc-by-4.0May 2022View details →

Supplemental data and code for Climate change will amplify the inequitable exposure to compound heatwave and ozone pollution

Supplemental data and code for Climate change will amplify the inequitable exposure to compound heatwave and ozone pollution

Riding an escalator: upward range shift and patterns of genetic response to climate change in Acer caudatifolium

Aim Rapid global warming is threatening global biodiversity, and it will likely lead to varying degrees of local adaptation, particularly among plant species. Besides, rising temperatures frequently result in upslope distribution shifts towards climatic optima (i.e., the escalator effect) within a limited dispersal space, such as in insular environments. Here, we integrated ecological and genetic approaches to investigate how climate change will impact the genetic compositions and spatial distributions of Taiwan endemic maple Acer caudatifolium. Location Taiwan Methods We estimate the distribution range shifts of A. caudatifolium under climate change through species distribution modeling (SDM). We also use 368 genotyped samples to infer dispersal and genetic hotspots and quantify the contributions of geography/environments to genetic variations. We further assess the potential risk to A. caudatifolium under different climate warming scenarios. Results We detected three genetic diversity hotspots near mountainous glacial refugia and two dispersal hotspots in northern Taiwan and the central-to-southern Central Mountain Range. Overall range reductions and an altitudinal upslope-shift were observed in SDM. Using both linear and nonlinear regression approaches, we found that genetic variation was significantly associated with geographic distance and elevation-related climatic variables. The potential risk analysis revealed that the northernmost summit-dwelling populations were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the major risk factor differed among populations: for central populations, temperature and precipitation jointly determined the potential risk, whereas precipitation was the only risk factor for northern and southern populations. Main conclusions This case study demonstrates how various climate factors, mountain height, and the availability of corridors jointly determine the demographic fates and sustainability of island maples in the face of climate change. This study also provided estimates of the implications of global warming, which can be conducive to developing appropriate conservation strategies.

Projected climatic changes lead to biome changes in areas of previously constant biome

Aim: Recent studies in southern Africa identified past biome stability as an important predictor of biodiversity. We aimed to assess the extent to which past biome stability predicts present global biodiversity patterns, and the extent to which projected climatic changes may lead to eventual biome changes in areas with constant past biome. Location: Global. Taxon: Spermatophyta; terrestrial vertebrates. Methods: Biome constancy was assessed and mapped using results from 89 dynamic global vegetation model simulations, driven by outputs of palaeoclimate experiments spanning the past 140 ka. We tested the hypothesis that terrestrial vertebrate diversity is predicted by biome constancy. We also simulated potential future vegetation, and hence potential future biome patterns, and quantified and mapped the extent of projected eventual future biome change in areas of past constant biome. Results: Approximately 11% of global ice-free land had a constant biome since 140 ka. Aside from areas of constant Desert, many areas with constant biome support high species diversity. All terrestrial vertebrate groups show a strong positive relationship between biome constancy and vertebrate diversity in areas of greater diversity, but no relationship in less diverse areas. Climatic change projected by 2100 commits 46–66% of global ice-free land, and 34–52% of areas of past constant biome (excluding areas of constant Desert) to eventual biome change. Main conclusions: Past biome stability strongly predicts vertebrate diversity in areas of higher diversity. Future climatic changes will lead to biome changes in many areas of past constant biome, with profound implications for biodiversity conservation. Some projected biome changes will result in substantial reductions in biospheric carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services.

Data from: Small but mighty: how overlooked small species maintain community structure through middle Eocene climate change

Understanding current and future biodiversity responses to changing climate is pivotal as anthropogenic climate change continues. This understanding is complicated though by the multitude of available metrics to quantify dynamics, and by biased sampling protocols. Here, we investigate the impact of sampling protocol strategies using a data-rich fossil record to calculate effective diversity using Hill numbers for the first time on Paleogene planktonic foraminifera. We sample 22,830 individual tests, in two different size classes, across a seven-million-year time slice of the Middle Eocene featuring a major transient warming event, the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~40 million years ago (Ma)), at study sites in the mid-latitude North Atlantic. Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), we investigate community responses to climatic fluctuations. After correcting for any effects of fossil fragmentation, we show a peak in generic diversity in the early and mid-stages of the MECO as well as divergent trajectories between the typical size-selected community (> 180 µm) and a broader selection including smaller genera (> 63 µm). Assemblages featuring smaller genera are more resilient to the climatic fluctuations of the MECO than those assemblages that feature only larger genera, maintaining their community structure at the reference Hill numbers for Shannon's and Simpson's Index. These results raise fundamental questions about how communities respond to climate excursions. In addition, our results emphasise the need to design studies with the aim of collecting the most inclusive data possible, to allow detection of community changes and determine which species are likely to dominate future environments.

Plant specialisation may limit climate‐induced vegetation change to within topographic and edaphic niches on a sub‐Antarctic island

Extreme changes in temperature, rainfall and wind regimes have been correlated with plant species range expansion upslope on sub-Antarctic islands. Ongoing climatic changes are expected to continue driving changes in species distributions globally, but niche specialisations may limit the capacity for range shifts. We hypothesised that non-climatic characteristics of ecological niches of vascular plant species could limit climate induced range shifts. We determined the altitudinal ranges of vascular plant species (n=13) on sub-Antarctic Marion Island and measured air temperature, topographic, foliar and soil properties along transects on geologically distinct substrates. Climatic and non-climatic associations were determined using multiple linear regression and boosted regression tree (BRT) analyses. The degree of niche specialisation was determined using outlying mean index analysis (OMI) within the range of species on the island. Several species (7 of 13) exhibited niche-specialisation. Correlation analysis revealed that edaphic properties including soil depth, loss on ignition, the principal component of most soil nutrients (Mg, Cl, K, Ca, Cu, Zn, P, S), Si, Mn and clay dominated the BRT prediction of overall plant cover. Although air temperature was correlated with plant cover in linear models, model simplification dropped temperature in both BRT and linear models. As a consequence, multiple determinants, including temperature, climate, topography and soils control the distribution of vascular plant species on this sub-Antarctic island.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2022View details →

Future Food Security in Africa under Climate Change

This excel file contains data tables (S2-S3) also found in the supplementary materials of the publication titled "Future Food Security in Africa under Climate Change".  The tables included here include a regional breakdown of African countries (Table S2), available calories for direct or indirect human consumption under diverse food loss and waste pathways (Table S3), and data on national caloric deficits under different scenarios (Table S4).

Asymmetry of thermal sensitivity and the thermal risk of climate change

Aim. Understanding and predicting the biological consequences of climate change requires considering the thermal sensitivity of organisms relative to environmental temperatures. One common approach involves "thermal safety margins" (TSMs), which are generally estimated as the temperature differential between the highest temperature an organism can tolerate (CTmax) and the mean or maximum environmental temperature it experiences. Yet, organisms face thermal stress and performance loss at body temperatures below their CTmax, and the steepness of that loss increases with the asymmetry of the thermal performance curve (TPC). Location. Global Time period. 2015-2019. Major taxa studied. Ants, fish, insects, lizards, and phytoplankton. Methods. We examine variability in TPC asymmetry and the implications for thermal stress for 384 populations from 289 species across taxa and for metrics including ant and lizard locomotion, fish growth, and insect and phytoplankton fitness. Results. We find that the thermal optimum (Topt, beyond which performance declines) is more labile than CTmax, inducing interspecific variation in asymmetry. Importantly, the degree of TPC asymmetry increases with Topt. Thus, even though populations with higher Topts in a hot environment might experience above-optimal body temperatures less often than do populations with lower Topts, they nonetheless experience steeper declines in performance at high body temperatures. Estimates of the annual cumulative decline in performance for temperatures above Topt suggest that TPC asymmetry alters the onset, rate, and severity of performance decrement at high body temperatures. Main conclusions. Species with the same TSMs can experience different thermal risk due to differences in TPC asymmetry. Metrics that incorporate additional aspects of TPC shape better capture the thermal risk of climate change than do TSMs.

opencc-by-4.0Jul 2022View details →

Data associated with: Climate change will likely threaten areas of suitable habitats for the most relevant medicinal plants native to the Caatinga dry forest

Medicinal plants play an important role in providing ecosystem services, such as local cultural and economic value, and human well-being, especially in poor regions. The use of plants to improve living conditions and increase the chances of survival comes from the beginning of human life. Climate change has the potential to contract areas of suitable habitat for medicinal plant species across different regions. As a consequence of climate change, the possibility of treating diseases can be compromised, and even interrupted. We collected data from the medicinal applications and the parts that are used of 10 species of medicinal plants native to the Caatinga dry forest [i.e., Myracrodruon urundeuva Allemão (Anacardiaceae), Cereus jamacaru DC (Cactaceae), Neocalyptrocalyx longifolium (Mart) Cornejo & Iltis (Caparaceae), Maytenus rigida Mart (Celastraceae), Operculina hamiltonii (G Don) DF Austin Staples, Operculina macrocarpa (L) Urb (Convolvulaceae), Amburana cearensis (Allemao) AC Sm, Anadenantehra colubrina (Vell) Brenan, Bauhinia cheilantha (Bong) Steud and Erythrina velutina Willd (Legimonosae). In addition, we also collected precise georeferenced data (native occurrence) of these medicinal plant species, that was accessed in 1) The Global Biodiversity Information Facility platform (GBIF) is an international data network funded by governments around the world, providing open access to data on all life on Earth (https:// www.gbif.org, accessed May 2022); 2) REFLORA - Herbário Virtual, virtual herbarium network that contains information on Brazilian plants that are deposited in 63 herbaria in Brazil and 10 international herbaria (http://reflora.jbrj.gov.br/reflora/herbarioVirtual, accessed May 2022); 3) Botanical Information and Ecology Network Platform (BIEN), a global information network that helps to document patterns of plant diversity, trait records and distribution, which includes georeferenced plant observation data from herbarium records, plots, survey inventories (https://bien .nceas.ucsb.edu/bien/biendata, accessed May 2022) and 4) 95 botanical monographs and floras. We excluded all repeated and mismatch occurrence data for each species. We collected all the available points for the studied species.

opencc-zeroJul 2022View details →

Precipitation Efficiency Constraint on Climate Change

Precipitation efficiency (PE) relates cloud condensation to precipitation and intrinsically binds atmospheric circulation to the hydrological cycle. Due to PE's inherent microphysical dependencies, definitions and estimates vary immensely. Consequently, PE's sensitivity to greenhouse warming and implications for climate change are poorly understood. Here, we quantify PE's role in climate change by defining a simple index as the ratio of surface precipitation to condensed water path. This macroscopic metric is reconcilable with microphysical PE measures and higher is associated with stronger mean Walker circulation. We further find that state-of-the-art climate models disagree on the sign and magnitude of future changes. This sign disagreement originates from models' convective parameterizations. Critically, models with increasing under greenhouse warming, in line with cloud-resolving simulations, show greater slowdown of the large-scale Hadley and Walker circulations and a two-fold greater increase in extreme rainfall than models with decreasing.

openother-openJul 2022View details →

Data from: Effects of climate change on plant resource allocation and herbivore interactions in a Neotropical rainforest shrub

Data from "Effects of climate change on plant resource allocation and herbivore interactions in a Neotropical rainforest shrub" published in Ecology and Evolution. doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9198