Find research datasets worth reusing

opencc-by-4.0Dec 2020View details →

Amundsen Sea future MAR simulations forced by the CMIP5 multi-model mean

Amundsen Sea future MAR simulation forced by the CMIP5 multi-model mean (RCP8.5) This future simulation is fully described in the following article: Donat-Magnin, M., Jourdain, N. C., Kittel, C., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Gallée, H., Krinner, G., and Chekki, M. Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The Cryosphere. The future is derived from the CMIP5 multi-model mean under the RCP8.5 scenario and covers the 2079-2108 period. The corresponding present-day simulation is available on <a href="http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4308510">http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4308510</a> and was thoroughly evaluated in the following TC paper: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020">https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020</a> See netcdf metadata for more information. Note that what is called runoff in the outputs is not actually a runoff (into the ocean) but more the net production of liquid water at the surface (which can either form ponds or flow into the ocean). Monthly files provided on MAR grid (see MAR_grid10km.nc). We also provide climatological (2079-2108 average) surface mass balance (SMB), surface melt rates and net liquid water production ("runoff") on a standard 8km WGS84 stereographic grid (see files ending as mean_polar_stereo.nc). Daily snowfall and surface melt rates are provided in ICE*nc. The interpolation to the stereographic grid is done using interpolate_to_std_polar_stereographic.f90. The fields are extrapolated to the ocean grid points so that ice sheet models with various ice-shelf extent can use this dataset. To extrapolate the SMB and surface melt projections to other warming scenarios or period, see eq. (2,3) in Donat-Magnin et al. The following variables are provided: <ul> <li>CC Cloud Cover</li> <li>LHF Latent Heat Flux</li> <li>LWD Long  Wave Downward</li> <li>LWU Long  Wave Upward</li> <li>QQp Specific Humidity (pressure levels)</li> <li>QQz Specific Humidity (height levels)</li> <li>RH Relative Humidity</li> <li>SHF Sensible Heat Flux</li> <li>SIC Sea ice cover</li> <li>SP Surface Pressure</li> <li>ST Surface Temperature</li> <li>SWD Short Wave Downward</li> <li>SWU Short Wave Upward</li> <li>TI1 Ice/Snow Temperature (snow-layer levels)</li> <li>TTz Temperature (height levels)</li> <li>UUp x-Wind Speed component (pressure levels)</li> <li>UUz x-Wind Speed component (height levels)</li> <li>VVp y-Wind Speed component (pressure levels)</li> <li>VVz y-Wind Speed component (height levels)</li> <li>UVp Horizontal Wind Speed (pressure levels)</li> <li>UVz Horizontal Wind Speed (height levels)</li> <li>ZZp Geopotential Height (pressure levels)</li> <li>mlt Surface melt rate</li> <li>rfz Refreezing rate</li> <li>rnf Rainfall</li> <li>rof "Runoff" (i.e. net production of surface liquid water)</li> <li>sbl Sublimation</li> <li>smb Surface Mass Balance</li> <li>snf Snowfall</li> </ul>

opencc-zeroAug 2021View details →

Hotspots of species loss do not vary across future climate scenarios in a drought-prone river basin

Aim: Climate change is expected to alter the distributions of species around the world, but estimates of species' outcomes vary widely among competing climate scenarios. Where should conservation resources be directed to maximize expected conservation benefits given future climate uncertainty? Here, we explore this question by quantifying variation in fish species' distributions across future climate scenarios. Location: Red River basin, south-central United States. Methods: We modeled historical and future stream fish distributions using a suite of environmental covariates derived from high-resolution hydrologic and climatic modeling of the basin. We quantified variation in outcomes for individual species across climate scenarios and across space, and identified hotspots of species loss by summing changes in probability of occurrence across species. Results: Under all climate scenarios, we find that the distribution of most fish species in the Red River Basin will contract by 2050. However, the variability across climate scenarios was more than 10 times higher for some species than for others. Despite this uncertainty in outcomes for individual species, hotspots of species loss tended to occur in the same portions of the basin across all climate scenarios. We also find that the most common species are projected to experience the greatest range contractions, underscoring the need for directing conservation resources towards both common and rare species Main conclusions: Our results suggest that while it may be difficult to predict which species will be most impacted by climate change, it may nevertheless be possible to identify spatial priorities for climate mitigation actions that are robust to future climate uncertainty. These findings are likely to be generalizable to other ecosystems around the world where future climate conditions follow prevailing historical patterns of key environmental covariates.

FIGURE 5 in Freshwater fishes from Paraná State, Brazil: an annotated list, with comments on biogeographic patterns, threats, and future perspectives

FIGURE 5. Cumulative number of lots of fish collected by state (marine lots included). The dashed line represents the approximate collection year of the first lots deposited in the state's main freshwater fish collections, especially MZUEL and NUP. State abbreviations: PR, Paraná; SP, São Paulo; RS, Rio Grande do Sul; MS, Mato Grosso do Sul.

FIGURE 4 in Freshwater fishes from Paraná State, Brazil: an annotated list, with comments on biogeographic patterns, threats, and future perspectives

FIGURE 4. Cumulative descriptions of the native freshwater fish species from Paraná State (blue line), species occurring naturally in the Paraná State, but originally described from São Paulo State (SP; green line) and species originally described from Paraná State (PR; red line). 1 = early descriptions of species from the upper rio Iguaçu basin (Haseman, 1911); 2 = foundation of main freshwater fish collections from Paraná State, especially MZUEL and NUP.

FIGURE 3 in Freshwater fishes from Paraná State, Brazil: an annotated list, with comments on biogeographic patterns, threats, and future perspectives

FIGURE 3. Number of species in the richest families of each order of the freshwater ichthyofauna from Paraná State, Brazil. Colors indicate orders.

FIGURE 1 in Freshwater fishes from Paraná State, Brazil: an annotated list, with comments on biogeographic patterns, threats, and future perspectives

FIGURE 1. Partial map of South America, with the Brazilian states outlined in black (Paraná State filled with blue). A) Map of Paraná State highlighting the ecoregions and sub-ecoregions. B) Sampling localities used to compile the list of the Paraná State freshwater fish species (red points). Each red point can represent more than one sampling site. Green bar = Sete Quedas waterfalls (currently submerged under the Itaipu Reservoir); black bar = Itaipu dam; blue bar = Iguaçu waterfalls.

opencc-zeroJan 2021View details →

Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth, and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.

opencc-by-4.0Jan 2021View details →

Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble

This dataset contains the data behind the figures 2-13 and A1-A4 in the article "Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble", which will be published in Journal of Glaciology.

opencc-by-4.0Jan 2021View details →

Supplementary data for "History and future of the Martian dynamo and implications of a hypothetical solid inner core"

This dataset contains the results of the calculations we carried out for the submitted manuscript titled "History and future of the Martian dynamo and implications of a hypothetical solid inner core". The data are organized into the following three groups: 1) radial_profiles; 2) histories; and 3) parameter_space_exploration. The first group, "radial_profiles", describes the radial density structure, and corresponding profiles of pressure, gravity, enclosed mass, and thermal expansivity for our simplified models of Earth and Mars. The second group, "histories", contains the results of our thermal evolution calculations for our reference Earth case and our five reference cases for Mars. For each case, there is a header file describing the input parameters, the derived parameters, and the contents of the accompanying tables of values. The third group, "parameter_space_exploration", contains the data that is partially illustrated in Figures 11-16, in which we show various outcomes across a wide range of multidimensional parameter space. All files are in ASCII format. Header files explain their contents in plain language and/or with reference to variables described in the paper. Data tables are tab-delimited.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2019View details →

The Breakout Moment for open repositories is now - How can we build the best future for our users?

Closing keynote held at the 14th International Conference on Open Repositories, OR2019 in Hamburg. Chair: Torsten Reimer, British Library

Data from: The present and future effects of land use on ecological assemblages in tropical grasslands and savannas in Africa

The world is currently experiencing a period of rapid, human-driven biodiversity loss. Over the past decade, numerous metrics for biodiversity have been used to create indicators to track change in biodiversity. However, our ability to predict future changes has been limited. In this study, we use two very different models to predict the status and possible futures for the composition and diversity of ecological assemblages in African tropical grasslands and savannas under land-use change. We show that ecological assemblages are affected more by land use in African grasslands and savannas than in other biomes. We estimate that average losses of assemblage composition and diversity are already between 9.7 and 42.0%, depending on the model and measure used. If current socio-economic trajectories continue ('business-as-usual'), the likely associated land-use changes are predicted to lead to a further 5.6–12.3% loss of assemblage composition and diversity. In contrast, a scenario that assumes more efficient use of agricultural areas (thus requiring a smaller total area) could be associated with a partial reversal ‒ of as much as 3.2% ‒ of past losses. While the agriculture that causes the majority of land-use change is an important source of economic growth, projections of the effects of land use on ecological assemblages can allow for more informed decisions.

opencc-zeroJun 2019View details →

Data from: Geologic and geomorphic controls on rockfall hazard: how well do past rockfalls predict future distributions?

To evaluate the geospatial hazard relationships between recent (contemporary) rockfalls and their prehistoric predecessors, we compare the locations, physical characteristics, and lithologies of rockfall boulders deposited during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) (n=185) with those deposited prior to the CES (n=1093). Population ratios of pre-CES to CES boulders at two study sites vary spatially from ~5:1 to 8.5:1. This is interpreted to reflect (i) variations in CES rockfall flux due to intra- and inter-event spatial differences in ground motions (e.g. directionality) and associated variations in source cliff responses, (ii) possible variations in the triggering mechanism(s), frequency, flux, record duration, boulder size distributions, and post-depositional mobilization of pre-CES rockfalls relative to CES rockfalls, and (iii) geological variations in the source cliffs of CES and pre-CES rockfalls. On interfluves, CES boulders traveled approximately 100 to 250 m further downslope than prehistoric (pre-CES) boulders, interpreted to reflect reduced resistance to CES rockfall transport due to preceding anthropogenic hillslope de-vegetation. Volcanic breccia boulders are more dimensionally equant, rounded, larger, and traveled further downslope than coherent lava boulders, illustrating clear geological control on rockfall hazard. In valley bottoms, the furthest-traveled pre-CES boulders are situated further downslope than CES boulders due to (i) remobilization of pre-CES boulders by post-depositional processes such as debris flows, and (ii) reduction of CES boulder velocities and travel distances by collisional impacts with pre-CES boulders. A considered earth-systems approach is required when using preserved distributions of rockfall deposits to predict the severity and extents of future rockfall events.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: Understanding geographic origins and history of admixture among chimpanzees in European zoos, with implications for future breeding programmes

Despite ample focus on this endangered species, conservation planning for chimpanzees residing outside Africa has proven a challenge because of the lack of ancestry information. Here, we analysed the largest number of chimpanzee samples to date, examining microsatellites in >100 chimpanzees from the range of the species in Africa, and 20% of the European zoo population. We applied the knowledge about subspecies differentiation throughout equatorial Africa to assign origin to chimpanzees in the largest conservation management programme globally. A total of 63% of the genotyped chimpanzees from the European zoos could be assigned to one of the recognized subspecies. The majority being of West African origin (40%) will help consolidate the current breeding programme for this subspecies and the identification of individuals belonging to the two other subspecies so far found in European zoos can form the basis for breeding programmes for these. Individuals of various degree of mixed ancestry made up 37% of the genotyped European zoo population and thus highlight the need for appropriate management programmes guided by genetic analysis to preserve maximum genetic diversity and reduce hybridization among subspecies.

Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

Data from: Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species available for future invasions, and it has been suggested that the problem of invasions will diminish as a result of this. However, the extent to which source pool depletion affects future invasions remains unclear. Here we describe a mechanistic model that captures the simultaneous effects of depletion of source species pools along with increases in pathway rates (e.g. imports) to predict future numbers of new invasions. We assume that the distribution of species abundance within invasion pathways is positively skewed, which is modelled using a log-normal distribution. Given their high propagule pressure, the most abundant species are likely to invade first, while the many rare species are likely to invade only under high pathway volumes. We apply this model to the case study of bark beetle, Scolytinae, invasions in the USA. Source species pools in Europe and Asia (225 and 655 species of Scolytinae, respectively) are much larger than numbers that have historically established (16 and 32). Parameterization of the model indicates a highly skewed species abundance distribution in the pathway and this is confirmed by species frequencies in port inspection records, thus explaining why only a small fraction of species has historically invaded. Forecasts from the model indicate that with increasing rates of imports, more species from these regions are likely to invade in the future despite the depletion of the most abundant species from source species pools. Previous statistical models tend to underestimate future establishments in the presence of increasing import rates due to their failure to account for key underlying mechanisms. Policy implications. The mechanistic model developed here is widely applicable for predicting future invasions of all taxa and provides insights into how increases in rates of imports counteract the species pool depletion effect, resulting in the continued establishment of new species.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: Phenotypic and genetic divergence within a single whitefish form – detecting the potential for future divergence

Human-induced nutrient input can change the selection regime and lead to the loss of biodiversity. For example, eutrophication caused speciation reversal in polymorphic whitefish populations through a flattening of littoral-pelagic selection gradients. We investigated the current state of phenotypic and genetic diversity in whitefish (Coregonus macrophthalmus) in a newly restored lake whose nutrient load has returned to pre-eutrophication levels and found that whitefish spawning at different depths varied phenotypically and genetically: individuals spawning at shallower depth had fewer gill rakers, faster growth, and a morphology adapted to benthic-feeding and they showed higher degrees of diet specialization than deeper spawning individuals. Microsatellite analyses complemented the phenotype analyses by demonstrating reproductive isolation along different spawning depths. Our results indicate that whitefish still retain or currently re-gain phenotypic and genetic diversity, which was lost during eutrophication. Hence, the population documented here has a potential for future divergence because natural selection can target phenotypes specialized along re-established littoral-pelagic selection gradients. The biodiversity however, will have better chances to return if managers acknowledge the evolutionary potential within the local whitefish and adapt fishing and stocking measures.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Individuals' expected genetic contributions to future generations, reproductive value, and short-term metrics of fitness in free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia)

Appropriately defining and enumerating 'fitness' is fundamental to explaining and predicting evolutionary dynamics. Yet, general theoretical concepts of fitness are often hard to translate into quantities that can be measured in wild populations experiencing complex environmental, demographic, genetic and selective variation. While the 'fittest' entities might be widely understood to be those that ultimately leave most descendants at some future time, such long-term legacies can rarely be measured, impeding evaluation of the degree to which tractable short-term metrics of individual fitness could potentially serve as useful direct proxies. One opportunity for conceptual and empirical convergence stems from the principle of individual reproductive value (Vi), defined as the number of copies of each of an individual's alleles that is expected to be present in future generations given the individual's realised pedigree of descendants. Since Vi tightly predicts an individual's longer-term genetic contribution, quantifying Vi provides a tractable route to quantifying what, to date, has been an abstract theoretical fitness concept. We used complete pedigree data from free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to demonstrate that individuals' expected genetic contributions stabilise within an observed 20-year (i.e. ~8 generation) time period, allowing estimation of individual Vi. Considerable among-individual variation in Vi was evident in both sexes. Standard metrics of individual lifetime fitness, comprising lifespan, lifetime reproductive success and projected growth rate, typically explained less than half the variation. We thereby elucidate the degree to which fitness metrics observed on individuals concur with measures of longer-term genetic contributions, and consider the degree to which analyses of pedigree structure could provide useful complementary insights into evolutionary outcomes.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate-impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g. pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution we analyse climatic data (e.g. temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g. lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LANDCLIM) modelling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (ca. 6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by ca. 5-7 {degree sign}C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-mediterranean to sub-mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130,000-115,000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7{degree sign}C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/year, and disturbance (e.g. fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

opencc-zeroJan 2020View details →

Cuttlefish show flexible and future-dependent foraging cognition

Some animals optimise their foraging activity by learning and memorising food availability, in terms of quantity and quality, and adapt their feeding behaviour accordingly. Here we investigated whether cuttlefish flexibly adapt their foraging behaviour according to the availability of their preferred prey. In Experiment 1, cuttlefish switched from a selective to an opportunistic foraging strategy (or vice versa) when the availability of their preferred prey at night was predictable versus unpredictable. In Experiment 2, cuttlefish exhibited day-to-day foraging flexibility, in response to what will happen in the proximate future (i.e. preferred prey available on alternate nights). In Experiment 1, the number of crabs eaten during the day decreased when shrimp (i.e. preferred food) were predictably available at night, while the consumption of crabs during the day was maintained when shrimp availability was unpredictable. Cuttlefish quickly shifted from one strategy to the other, when experimental conditions were reversed. In Experiment 2, cuttlefish only reduced their consumption of crabs during the daytime when shrimps were predictably available the following night. Their daytime foraging behaviour appeared dependent on shrimps' future availability. Overall, cuttlefish can adopt dynamic and flexible foraging behaviours including selective, opportunistic and future-dependent strategies, in response to changing foraging conditions.

Data from: Predicting community rank-abundance distributions under current and future climates

Understanding influences of environmental change on biodiversity requires consideration of more than just species richness. Here we present a novel framework for understanding possible changes in species' abundance structures within communities under climate change. We demonstrate this using comprehensive survey and environmental data from 1,748 woody plant communities across southeast Queensland, Australia, to model rank-abundance distributions (RADs) under current and future climates. Under current conditions, the models predicted RADs consistent with the region's dominant vegetation types. We demonstrate that under a business as usual climate scenario, total abundance and richness may decline in subtropical rainforest and shrubby heath, and increase in dry sclerophyll forests. Despite these opposing trends, we predicted evenness in the distribution of abundances between species to increase in all vegetation types. By assessing the information rich, multidimensional RAD, we show that climate-driven changes to community abundance structures will likely vary depending on the current composition and environmental context.