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opencc-zeroDec 2019View details →

Data from: Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios

Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land-use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three different socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM and PLUMv2). It assesses the impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from biomass and soil as a direct consequence of cropland expansion. Results show substantial variation between models and scenarios, with little overlap across all nine projections. Although SSP1 projects the least impact, there are still significant impacts projected. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the greatest impact across carbon storage and biodiversity metrics due to both extent and location of cropland expansion. Furthermore, for all the biodiversity and carbon metrics used, there is a greater proportion of variance explained by model used. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of land-based models. Incorporating effects of land-use change in biodiversity impact assessments would also help better prioritise future protection of biodiverse and carbon-rich areas.

opencc-zeroDec 2017View details →

Data from: Distinguishing the victim from the threat: SNP‐based methods reveal the extent of introgressive hybridization between wildcats and domestic cats in Scotland and inform future in situ and ex situ management options for species restoration

The degree of introgressive hybridisation between the Scottish wildcat and domestic cat has long been suspected to be advanced. Here we use a 35-SNP-marker test, designed to assess hybridisation between wildcat and domestic cat populations in Scotland, to assess a database of 265 wild-living and captive cat samples, and test the assumptions of the test using 3097 SNP markers generated independently in a subset of the data using ddRAD. We discovered that despite increased genetic resolution provided by these methods, wild-living cats in Scotland show a complete genetic continuum or hybrid swarm structure when judged against reference data. The historical population of wildcats, although hybridised, clearly groups at one end of this continuum, as does the captive population of wildcats. The interpretation of pelage scores against nuclear genetic data continues to be problematic. This is probably because of a breakdown in linkage disequilibrium between wildcat pelage genes as the two populations have become increasingly mixed, meaning that pelage score or SNP score alone are poor diagnostic predictors of hybrid status. Until better tools become available, both should be used jointly, where possible, when making management decisions about individual cats. We recommend that the conservation community in Scotland must now define clearly what measures are to be used to diagnose a wildcat in the wild in Scotland, if future conservation action is to be effective.

Data from: Food spoilage, storage, and transport: implications for a sustainable future

Human societies have always faced temporal and spatial fluctuations in food availability. The length of time that food remains edible and nutritious depends on temperature, moisture, and other factors that affect the growth rates of organisms that cause spoilage. Some storage techniques, such as drying, salting, and smoking, date back to ancient hunter–gatherer and early agricultural societies and use relatively low energy inputs. Newer technologies developed since the industrial revolution, such as canning and compressed-gas refrigeration, require much greater energy inputs. Coincident with the development of storage technologies, the transportation of food helped to overcome spatial and temporal fluctuations in productivity, culminating in today's global transport system, which delivers fresh and preserved foods worldwide. Because most contemporary humans rely on energy-intensive technologies for storing and transporting food, there are formidable challenges for feeding a growing and increasingly urbanized global population as finite supplies of fossil fuels rapidly deplete.

Data from: Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.

Data from: Historical baselines and the future of shell calcification for a foundation species in a changing ocean

Seawater pH and the availability of carbonate ions is decreasing due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, posing challenges for calcifying marine species. Marine mussels are of particular concern given their role as foundation species worldwide. Here, we document shell growth and calcification patterns in Mytilus californianus, the California mussel, over millennial and decadal scales. By comparing shell thickness across the largest modern shells, the largest mussels collected in the 1960s-1970s and shells from two Native American midden sites (1000-2420 years BP), we found that modern shells are thinner overall, thinner per age category, and thinner per unit length. Thus, the largest individuals of this species are calcifying less now than in the past. Comparisons of shell thickness in smaller individuals over the past 10-40 years, however, do not show significant shell thinning. Given our sampling strategy, these results are unlikely to simply reflect within-site variability or preservation effects. Review of environmental and biotic drivers known to affect shell calcification suggest declining ocean pH as a likely explanation for the observed shell thinning. Further future decreases in shell thickness could have significant negative impacts on M. californianus survival and, in turn, negatively impact the species rich complex that occupies mussel beds.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Divergent plant–soil feedbacks could alter future elevation ranges and ecosystem dynamics

Plant–soil feedbacks (PSF) are important interactions that may influence range dynamics in a changing world. What remains largely unknown is the generality of plant–soil biotic interactions across populations and the potential role of specific soil biota, both of which are key for understanding how PSF might change future communities and ecosystems. We combined landscape-level field observations and experimental soil treatments to test whether a dominant tree alters soil environments to impact its own performance and range shifts towards higher elevations. We show: (1) soil conditioning by trees varies with elevation, (2) soil biota relate to PSF, (3) under simulated conditions, biotic PSF constrain range shifts at lower elevations but allow for expansions at higher elevations, and (4) differences in soil conditioning predict feedback outcomes in specific range-shift scenarios. These results suggest that variable plant–soil biotic interactions may influence the migration and fragmentation of tree species, and that models incorporating soil parameters will more accurately predict future species distributions.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

Climate change is projected to influence the genetic resources of plant species. Recent research has examined genetic diversity patterns under current climate conditions, with little attention to the future genetic consequences for species. In this study, we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic approaches to project future changes in genetic diversity using plastid and nuclear DNA and reconstructed distribution patterns of three circumboreal plants (Chamaedaphne calyculata, Linnaea borealis ssp. borealis, and Pedicularis sceptrum-carolinum ssp. sceptrum-carolinum) in the last glacial maximum. We found that circumboreal plants could potentially lose their geographic ranges in the future (2070; 35–52% in RCP 4.5 (representative concentration pathways), 37–53% in RCP 6.0, and 56–69% in RCP 8.5), only slightly compensated by a predicted range gain of 18–33% (across the three RCPs). It is expected that future genetic diversity level could remain similar or lower than the present level. On the other hand, the homogeneity of the genetic background—a lack of admixture and domination of one gene pool in most populations of C. calyculata and L. borealis ssp. borealis—was predicted to become more pronounced in the future. Combining the paleoecological niche modeling and genetic data revealed, more precisely, the climate refugia for circumboreal plants in the Alps, central Asia, Beringia, and southern North America and the macrorefugia more restricted to the northern part of Eurasia and North America, reaching the arctic zone.

Data from: The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency

The extent of the savanna biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannas in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savanna tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African, and Australian savanna distributions from a physiologically-based statistical distribution model - the Thornley transport resistance model (TTR-SDM) - and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parameterized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070 all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannas at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannas at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savanna biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions.

opencc-zeroSep 2019View details →

Data from: Current and projected future risks of freshwater fish invasions in China

Biological invasions are a primary threat to global biodiversity, supporting mounting calls for the development of early-warning systems to manage existing and emerging invaders. Here, we evaluated the geographical pattern of invasion risks of currently established and potentially emerging nonnative freshwater fishes in China by jointly considering the threats of introduction and establishment under climate change. Introduction threats were estimated according to proxies of human activities and propagule pressure for two primary pathways (aquaculture or ornamental). Establishment threats for 51 current and 64 potential invaders (based on whether having established or not self-sustaining populations) were assessed using an ensemble of species distribution models under current (1960-1990) and future [2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070s)] climate scenarios. Geographical patterns of invasion risk were then assessed by overlaying the threats of introduction and establishment for each species group both in present-day and in the future. We found that eastern China displayed the highest threat of introduction. In contrast, southeastern and northwestern regions were identified as the most suitable for the establishment of both current and potential future invaders. Under a changing climate, 83 out of 115 species displayed an increase in habitat suitability, resulting in an overall increase of 4.8% by 2050s and 7.1% by 2070s in the extent of suitable habitat for nonnative freshwater fishes. Taken together, invasion risk was found to be highest in southeastern China and lowest in the Tibet Plateau. Our research highlights the importance of assessing invasion risk by integrating the threats associated with the introduction and establishment stages. In particular, our findings revealed convergent patterns of invasion risk between current and potential nonnative freshwater fishes under climate change. Geographic patterns in hotspots of existing and emerging invasions provide critical insights to guide the allocation of resources to monitor and control existing and emerging invasions in China.

opencc-zeroDec 2017View details →

Data from: Statistical forecasting of current and future circum-Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness

Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross-validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedbacks.

Data from: Unravelling the evolutionary history and future prospects of endemic species restricted to former glacial refugia

The contemporary distribution and genetic composition of biodiversity bear a signature of species' evolutionary histories and the effects of past climatic oscillations. For many European species, the Mediterranean peninsulas of Iberia, Italy and the Balkans acted as glacial refugia and the source of range recolonization, and as a result, they contain disproportionately high levels of diversity. As these areas are particularly threatened by future climate change, it is important to understand how past climatic changes affected their biodiversity. We use an integrated approach, combining markers with different evolutionary rates and combining phylogenetic analysis with approximate Bayesian computation and species distribution modelling across temporal scales. We relate phylogeographic processes to patterns of genetic variation in Myotis escalerai, a bat species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. We found a distinct population structure at the mitochondrial level with a strong geographic signature, indicating lineage divergence into separate glacial refugia within the Iberian refugium. However, microsatellite markers suggest higher levels of gene flow resulting in more limited structure at recent time frames. The evolutionary history of M. escalerai was shaped by the effects of climatic oscillations and changes in forest cover and composition, while its future is threatened by climatically induced range contractions and the role of ecological barriers due to competition interactions in restricting its distribution. This study warns that Mediterranean peninsulas, which provided refuge for European biodiversity during past glaciation events, may become a trap for limited dispersal and ecologically limited endemic species under future climate change, resulting in loss of entire lineages.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: Identifying future zoonotic disease threats: where are the gaps in our understanding of primate infectious diseases?

Background and objectives: Emerging infectious diseases often originate in wildlife, making it important to identify infectious agents in wild populations. It is widely acknowledged that wild animals are incompletely sampled for infectious agents, especially in developing countries, but it is unclear how much more sampling is needed, and where that effort should focus in terms of host species and geographic locations. Here we identify these gaps in primate parasites, many of which have already emerged as threats to human health. Methodology: We obtained primate host-parasite records and other variables from existing databases. We then investigated sampling effort within primates relative to their geographic range size, and within countries relative to their primate species richness. We used generalized linear models, controlling for phylogenetic or spatial autocorrelation, to model variation in sampling effort across primates and countries. Finally, we used species richness estimators to extrapolate parasite species richness. Results: We found uneven sampling effort within all primate groups and continents. Sampling effort among primates was influenced by their geographic range size and substrate use, with terrestrial species receiving more sampling. Our parasite species richness estimates suggested that, among the best-sampled primates and countries, almost half of primate parasites remain to be sampled; for most primate hosts, the situation is much worse. Conclusions and implications: Sampling effort for primate parasites is uneven and low. The sobering message is that we know little about even the best studied primates, and even less regarding the spatial and temporal distribution of parasitism within species.

Data from: Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks

Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of forest disturbances such as wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks, thereby increasing the potential for sequential disturbances to interact. Interactions can amplify or dampen disturbances, yet the direction and magnitude of future disturbance interactions are difficult to anticipate because underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We tested how variability in postfire forest development affects future susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, focusing on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in forests regenerating from the large high-severity fires that affected Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in 1988. We combined extensive field data on postfire tree regeneration with a well-tested simulation model to assess susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks over 130 y of stand development. Despite originating from the same fire event, among-stand variation in forest structure was very high and remained considerable for over a century. Thus, simulated emergence of stands susceptible to bark beetles was not temporally synchronized but was protracted by several decades, compared with stand development from spatially homogeneous regeneration. Furthermore, because of fire-mediated variability in forest structure, the habitat connectivity required to support broad-scale outbreaks and amplifying cross-scale feedbacks did not develop until well into the second century after the initial burn. We conclude that variability in tree regeneration after disturbance can dampen and delay future disturbance by breaking spatiotemporal synchrony on the landscape. This highlights the importance of fostering landscape variability in the context of ecosystem management given changing disturbance regimes.

Data from: The interactive effects of photoperiod and future climate change may have negative consequences for a wide-spread invasive insect

Increasing global temperatures may affect many ectotherms, including insects, although increasing temperatures are thought to benefit future populations through effects on adult size, fecundity, or populations. However, the way that temperature may interact with photoperiod is not well understood. We study this problem using the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, an important worldwide invasive whose future spread is thought to be affected by changes in climate. We investigated how mass at maturity varied with temperature (21°C, 25°C) across short and long photoperiods, using laboratory populations from the extreme ends of this species' current US range (Florida, New Jersey). These values were used to parametrize a model to predict optimal mass based on development times; the results of a second laboratory experiment under the same treatments were compared to model predictions. Warmer conditions shortened development times in females from all locations leading to either higher or lower mass depending on the photoperiod. We then used published mass–fecundity relationships to determine the consequences of mass on fecundity under our conditions. Under the majority of scenarios warming decreased predicted fecundity under long photoperiods, but proved beneficial under short photoperiods because the costs of fast development were offset by increased survival in the face of late-season freezing risk. However, fecundity was always low under short photoperiods, so the marginal benefit of warming appears negligible given its cost under long photoperiods when the majority of reproduction occurs. Thus, with northern range expansion, where colder weather currently limits this species, detrimental effects of warming on fecundity are likely, similar to those identified for mass. Unlike previous work that has shown benefits of a warming planet to insects like Aedes albopictus, our work predicts lower performance under warming conditions in summer across the current range, a prediction with implications for range expansion, disease dynamics and populations.

Data from: Utilizing next-generation sequencing to resolve the backbone of the Core Goodeniaceae and inform future taxonomic and floral form studies

Though considerable progress has been made in inferring phylogenetic relationships of many plant lineages, deep unresolved nodes remain a common problem that can impact downstream efforts, including taxonomic decision-making and character reconstruction. The Core Goodeniaceae is a group affected by this issue: data from the plastid regions trnL-trnF and matK have been insufficient to generate adequate support at key nodes along the backbone of the phylogeny. We performed genome skimming for 24 taxa representing major clades within Core Goodeniaceae. The plastome coding regions (CDS) and nuclear ribosomal repeats (NRR) were assembled and complemented with additional accessions sequenced for nuclear G3PDH and plastid trnL-trnF and matk. The CDS, NRR, and G3PDH alignments were analyzed independently and topology tests were used to detect the alignments' ability to reject alternative topologies. The CDS, NRR, and G3PDH alignments independently supported a Brunonia (Scaevola s.l. (Coopernookia (Goodenia s.l.))) backbone topology, but within Goodenia s.l., the strongly-supported plastome topology (Goodenia A (Goodenia B (Velleia + Goodenia C))) contrasts with the poorly supported nuclear topology ((Goodenia A + Goodenia B) (Velleia + Goodenia C)). A fully resolved and maximally supported topology for Core Goodeniaceae was recovered from the plastome CDS, and there is excellent support for most of the major clades and relationships among them in all alignments. The composition of these seven major clades renders many of the current taxonomic divisions non-monophyletic, prompting us to suggest that Goodenia may be split into several segregate genera.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: A population genetic window into the past and future of the walleye Sander vitreus: Relation to historic walleye and the extinct "blue pike" S. v. "glaucus"

Background: Conserving genetic diversity and local adaptations are management priorities for wild populations of exploited species, which increasingly are subject to climate change, habitat loss, and pollution. These constitute growing concerns for the walleye Sander vitreus, an ecologically and economically valuable North American temperate fish with large Laurentian Great Lakes' fisheries. This study compares genetic diversity and divergence patterns across its widespread native range using mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region sequences and nine nuclear DNA microsatellite (μsat) loci, examining historic and contemporary influences. We analyze the genetic and morphological characters of a putative endemic variant– "blue pike" S. v. "glaucus" –described from Lakes Erie and Ontario, which became extinct. Walleye with turquoise-colored mucus are evaluated, since some have questioned whether these are related to the "blue pike". Results: Walleye populations are distinguished by significant considerable genetic divergence (mean FST mtDNA=0.32±0.01, μsat=0.13±0.00) and substantial diversity across their range (mean heterozygosity mtDNA=0.53±0.02, μsat=0.68±0.03). Southern populations markedly differ, possessing unique haplotypes and alleles, especially the . The Ohio/New River population that housespossesses the most pronounced divergence and the oldest haplotype. Northerly formerly glaciated populations have greatest diversity in Lake Erie (mean heterozygosity mtDNA=0.79±0.00, μsat=0.72±0.01). Genetic diversity was much less in historic Lake Erie samples from 1923–1949 (mean heterozygosity mtDNA=0.05±0.01, μsat=0.47±0.06) than today. The historic "blue pike" had no unique haplotypes/alleles and there is no evidence that it comprised a separate taxon from walleye. Turquoise mucus walleye also show no genetic differentiation from other sympatric walleye and no correspondence to the "blue pike". Conclusions: Contemporary walleye populations possess high levels of genetic diversity and divergence, despite habitat degradation and exploitation. Genetic and previously published tagging data indicate that natal homing and spawning site philopatry led to population structure. Population patterns were shaped by climate change and drainage connections, with northern ones tracing to post-glacial recolonization. Southerly populations possess unique alleles and may provide an important future genetic reservoir. Allelic frequencies of Lake Erie walleye from ~70–90 years ago significantly differed from today, suggesting population recovery after extensive habitat loss, pollution, and exploitation. The historic "blue pike" was indistinguishable from walleye, indicating that taxonomic designation is not warranted.

Data from: Bayesian estimates of male and female African lion mortality for future use in population management

The global population size of African lions is plummeting, and many small fragmented populations face local extinction. Extinction risks are amplified through the common practice of trophy hunting for males, which makes setting sustainable hunting quotas a vital task. Various demographic models evaluate consequences of hunting on lion population growth. However, none of the models use unbiased estimates of male age-specific mortality because such estimates do not exist. Until now, estimating mortality from resighting records of marked males has been impossible due to the uncertain fates of disappeared individuals: dispersal or death. We develop a new method and infer mortality for male and female lions from two populations that are typical with respect to their experienced levels of human impact. We found that mortality of both sexes differed between the populations and that males had higher mortality across all ages in both populations. We discuss the role that different drivers of lion mortality may play in explaining these differences and whether their effects need to be included in lion demographic models. Synthesis and applications. Our mortality estimates can be used to improve lion population management and, in addition, the mortality model itself has potential applications in demographically informed approaches to the conservation of species with sex-biased dispersal.