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81 results for “climate change scenarios”
Supplementary material 1 from: Jarnevich CS, Young NE, Sheffels TR, Carter J, Sytsma MD, Talbert C (2017) Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: an example with coypu (Myocastor coypus). NeoBiota 32: 107-125. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.32.8884
Supplementary figures and table : Explanation note: Supporting information including global location data used to create models (Supplementary figure 1), global distribution of tropical environments (Supplementary figure 2), and Global circulation model climate data used for forecasts of Myocastor coypus distributions (Supplementary table 1).
Predicting Potential Distribution of Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) King and H. Rob. in Shivapuri Nagarjun National Park, Nepal under Climate Change Scenarios
<p>Data used in the paper</p>
Maps for Soil loss by water from climate change scenarios for Austria
<p><span>The internal EJP SOIL project SERENA contributed to the evaluation of soil multifunctionality aiming at providing assessment tools for land planning and soil policies at different scales. By co-working with relevant stakeholders, the project provided co-developed indicators and associated cookbooks to assess and map them, to report both on soil degradation, soil-based ecosystem services and their bundles, under actual conditions and for climate and land-use changes, at the regional, national, and European scales.</span></p> <p><span>This dataset contains the change of modelled annual soil loss rates for changing R-factor according to RCP4.5 and RPC8.5 climate scenarios, relative to modelled soil loss in the base scenario, using R-factor calculated for the 1990-2021 period. For each climate scenario, four periods were considered: 1991-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The RUSLE-based soil loss calculations were done according to the SERENA/EJP-Soil soil erosion cookbook and are described in the respective project deliverables D3.3 and D3.4.</span></p>
Data from: Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa
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Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios
<p><strong>Aims: </strong>To identify potential hull fouling marine invasive species that could survive in East Antarctica presently and in the future.</p> <p><strong>Location: </strong>Australia's Antarctic continental stations: Davis, Mawson and Casey, East Antarctica; and subantarctic islands: Macquarie Island and Heard and McDonald Islands.</p> <p><strong>Methods: </strong>Our study uses a novel machine-learning algorithm to predict which currently known hull fouling MIS could survive in shallow benthic ecosystems adjacent to Australian Antarctic research stations and subantarctic islands, where ship traffic is present. We used gradient boosted machine learning (XGBoost) with four important environmental variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and pH) to develop models of suitable environments for each potentially invasive species. We then used these models to determine if any Australia's three Antarctic research stations and two subantarctic islands could be environmentally suitable for MIS now and under two future climate scenarios.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>Most of the species were predicted to be unable to survive at any locations between now and the end of the century, however, four species were identified as potential current threats, and five as threats under future climate change. <em>Asterias amurensis</em> was identified as a potential threat to all locations.</p> <p><strong>Main conclusions: </strong>This study suggests that the risk are very low, but plausible, that known hull fouling species could survive in the shallow benthic habitats near Australia's East Antarctica locations and suggest a precautionary approach is needed by way of surveillance and monitoring in this region, particularly if propagule pressure increases. Whilst some species could survive as adults in the region, their ability to reach these locations and undergo successful reproduction is considered unlikely based on current knowledge.</p>
Figures 1–7 in Potential distribution of the guava psyllid Triozoida limbata (Hemiptera, Psylloidea), today and in global climate change scenarios
Figures 1–7. Triozoida limbata: 1- Habitus of adult; 2- head; 3- male terminalia, in profile; 4- female terminalia, in profile; 5- habitus of immature; 6- open leaf roll gall on guava with immature specimens; 7- leaf roll galls on guava.
Figure 2 in Environmental niche modelling of the Chinese pond mussel invasion in Europe under climate change scenarios
Figure 2. Response curves of the environmental variables selected for prediction of S. woodiana distribution under the recent climate scenario. Each curve (green line) shows how the logistic prediction changes as each environmental variable is varied. The orange dashed line crosses the maximum value of the variable.
Data from: Heritable variation and lack of tradeoffs suggest adaptive capacity in Acropora cervicornis despite negative synergism under climate change scenarios
<p>Knowledge of multi-stressor interactions and the potential for trade-offs among tolerance traits is essential for developing intervention strategies for the conservation and restoration of reef ecosystems in a changing climate. Thermal extremes and acidification are two major co-occurring stresses predicted to limit the recovery of vital Caribbean reef-building corals. Here we conducted an aquaria-based experiment to quantify the effects of increased water temperatures and pCO2 individually and in concert on 12 genotypes of the endangered branching coral, Acropora cervicornis, currently being reared and outplanted for large-scale coral restoration. Quantification of 11 host, symbiont, and holobiont traits throughout the 2-month long experiment showed several synergistic negative effects, where the combined stress treatment often caused greater reduction in physiological function than the individual stressors alone. However, we found significant genetic variation for most traits and positive trait correlations among treatments indicating an apparent lack of tradeoffs, suggesting that adaptive evolution will not be constrained. Our results suggest that it may be possible to incorporate climate-resistant coral genotypes into restoration and selective breeding programs, potentially accelerating adaptation. </p>
Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios
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Data from: Heritable variation and lack of tradeoffs suggest adaptive capacity in Acropora cervicornis despite negative synergism under climate change scenarios
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VEMAP 2: U.S. Annual Climate Change Scenarios
The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate experiments. The purpose of these scenarios is to reflect time-dependent changes in surface climate from AOGCMs in terms of both (1) long-term trends and (2) changes in multiyear (3-5 yr) to decadal variability patterns, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Development of the data set is reported in Kittel et al. (1997). Scenarios have been derived from transient greenhouse gas experiments with sulfate aerosols from the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and the Hadley Centre (HADCM2; Mitchell et al. 1995, Johns et al. 1997) accessed via the Climate Impacts LINK Project, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Scenarios were developed for the following variables: total incident solar radiation, minimum and maximum temperature, vapor pressure, precipitation, relative humidity and mean monthly irradiance for the time periods January 1994 to approximately 2100. These data and the VEMAP 1 data (Kittel et al. 1995) were used to drive models in VEMAP Phase 2, the objectives of which are to compare time-dependent ecological responses of biogeochemical and coupled biogeochemical-biogeographical models to historical and projected transient forcings across the conterminous U.S. This data set of annual climate change scenarios was designed to be concatenated with the /VEMAP/vemap.html">VEMAP 2: U.S. Annual Climate, 1895-1993 data set to create a single climate series from 1895 - ~2100. This data set is being made available for the U.S. National Assessment. Users are requested to confer with the NCAR VEMAP Data Group to ensure that the intended application of the data set is constistent with the generation and limiations of the data. For more information, refer to the VEMAP homepage. Data Citation The data set should be cited as follows: Kittel, T. G. F., N. A. Rosenbloom, C. Kaufman, J. A. Royle, C. Daly, H. H. Fisher, W. P. Gibson, S. Aulenbach, D. N. Yates, R. McKeown, D. S. Schimel, and VEMAP 2 Participants. 2001. VEMAP 2: U. S. Annual Climate Change Scenarios. Available on-line from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.
VEMAP 2: U.S. Monthly Climate Change Scenarios, Version 2
The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate experiments. The purpose of these scenarios is to reflect time-dependent changes in surface climate from AOGCMs in terms of both (1) long-term trends and (2) changes in multiyear (3-5 yr) to decadal variability patterns, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation(ENSO). Development of the data set is reported in Kittel et al. (1997). Scenarios have been derived from transient greenhouse gas experiments with sulfate aerosols from the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and the Hadley Centre (HADCM2; Mitchell et al. 1995, Johns et al. 1997) accessed via the Climate Impacts LINK Project, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Scenarios were developed for the following variables: total incident solar radiation, minimum and maximum temperature, vapor pressure, precipitation, relative humidity and mean monthly irradiance for the time periods January 1994 to approximately 2100. These data and the VEMAP 1 data (Kittel et al. 1995) were used to drive models in VEMAP Phase 2, the objectives of which are to compare time-dependent ecological responses of biogeochemical and coupled biogeochemical-biogeographical models to historical and projected transient forcings across the conterminous U.S. This data set of monthly climate change scenarios was designed to be concatenated with the /VEMAP/vemap.html">VEMAP 2: U.S. Monthly Climate, 1895-1993, Version 2 data set to create a single climate series from 1895 - ~2100. This data set is being made available for the U.S. National Assessment. Users are requested to confer with the NCAR VEMAP Data Group to ensure that the intended application of the data set is consistent with the generation and limitations of the data. For more information, refer to the VEMAP homepage. Data Citation The data set should be cited as follows: Kittel, T. G. F., N. A. Rosenbloom, C. Kaufman, J. A. Royle, C. Daly, H. H. Fisher, W. P. Gibson, S. Aulenbach, D. N. Yates, R. McKeown, D. S. Schimel, and VEMAP 2 Participants. 2000. VEMAP 2: U. S. Monthly Climate Change Scenarios, Version 2. Available on-line from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.
VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios
The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate experiments. The purpose of these scenarios is to reflect time-dependent changes in surface climate from AOGCMs in terms of both (1) long-term trends and (2) changes in multiyear (3-5 yr) to decadal variability patterns, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation(ENSO). Development of the data set is reported in Kittel et al. (1997). Scenarios have been derived from transient greenhouse gas experiments with sulfate aerosols from the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and the Hadley Centre (HADCM2; Mitchell et al. 1995, Johns et al. 1997) accessed via the Climate Impacts LINK Project, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Scenarios were developed for the following variables: total incident solar radiation, minimum and maximum temperature, vapor pressure, precipitation, relative humidity and mean daily irradiance for the time periods January 1994 to approximately 2100. These data and the VEMAP 1 data (Kittel et al. 1995) were used to drive models in VEMAP Phase 2, the objectives of which are to compare time-dependent ecological responses of biogeochemical and coupled biogeochemical-biogeographical models to historical and projected transient forcings across the conterminous U.S. This data set of daily climate change scenarios was designed to be concatenated with the /VEMAP/vemap.html">VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate, 1895-1993, Version 2 data set to create a single climate series from 1895 - ~2100. This data set is being made available for the U.S. National Assessment. Users are requested to confer with the NCAR VEMAP Data Group to ensure that the intended application of the data set is consistent with the generation and limitations of the data. For more information, refer to the VEMAP homepage. Data Citation The data set should be cited as follows: Kittel, T. G. F., N. A. Rosenbloom, C. Kaufman, J. A. Royle, C. Daly, H. H. Fisher, W. P. Gibson, S. Aulenbach, R. McKeown, D. S. Schimel, and VEMAP 2 Participants. 2000. VEMAP 2: U. S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios. Available on-line from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.
VEMAP 1: U.S. Climate Change Scenarios Based on Models with Increased CO2
The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) is an ongoing multiinstitutional, international effort addressing the response of biogeography and biogeochemistry to environmental variability in climate and other drivers in both space and time domains. The objectives of VEMAP are the intercomparison of biogeochemistry models and vegetation type distribution models (biogeography models) and determination of their sensitivity to changing climate, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and other sources of altered forcing. Climate scenarios from eight climate change experiments are included in the data set. Seven of these experiments are from atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) 1xCO2 and 2xCO2 equilibrium runs. These GCMs were implemented with a simple "mixed-layer" ocean representation that includes ocean heat storage and vertical exchange of heat and moisture with the atmosphere, but omits or specifies (rather than calculates) horizontal ocean heat transport. The eighth scenario is from a limited-area nested regional climate model (RegCM) experiment for the U.S. which was supported by the Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment (MECCA). The CCC and GFDL R30 runs are among the high resolution GCM experiments reported in IPCC (1990). Changes in monthly mean temperature and relative humidity were represented as differences (2xCO2 climate value - 1xCO2 climate value) and those for monthly precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and horizontal wind speed as change ratios (2xCO2 climate value/1xCO2 climate value). GCM grid point change values were derived from archives at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR; Jenne 1992) and spatially interpolated to the 0.5 degree VEMAP grid. Wind speed changes are for the lowest model level. For GISS runs, we calculated winds from vector components and then determined the change ratio. Values from the 60-km RegCM grid were reprojected to the 0.5 degree grid. Vapor pressure (and relative humidity) were not available for the CCC run; relative humidity changes were not determined for the RegCM experiment. A key issue in the generation of altered climates based on climate model output is the strong possibility of physical inconsistencies in the new climates. Change ratios from the NCAR archive have an imposed upper limit of 5.0, providing some constraint on these changes. An exception is that the GISS wind speed change ratios do not have this limit imposed (most GISS wind speed change ratios were less than 5). For a discussion of the utility and limitations of using climate model experiment outputs for exploring ecological sensitivity to climate change, see Sulzman et al. (1995). The 8 climate model experiments are: CCC - Canadian Climate Centre (Boer, McFarlane, and Lazare 1992) GISS - Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Hansen et al. 1984) GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Three experiments: (1) GFDL R15: R15 (4.5 degree by 7.5 degree grid) runs without Q- flux corrections (Manabe and Wetherald, 1987). (2) GFDL R15 Q-flux: R15 resolution (4.5 degree by 7.5 degree grid) runs with Q-flux corrections (Manabe and Wetherald 1990, Wetherald and Manabe 1990). (3) GFDL R30: R30 (2.22 degree by 3.75 degree grid) run with Q-flux corrections (Manabe and Wetherald 1990, Wetherald and Manabe 1990). OSU - Oregon State University (Schlesinger and Zhao 1989) UKMO - United Kingdom Meteorological Office (Wilson and Mitchell 1987) RegCM (MM4) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) nested regional climate model (climate version of the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR mesoscale model MM4; Giorgi, Brodeur and Bates 1994). Conterminous U.S. simulations were on a 60-km interval grid and were driven by 1x and 2xCO2 equilibrium GCM runs (Thompson and Pollard 1995a, 1995b). 1x and 2xCO2 RegCM runs were each 3 years in length. Climate changes were based on averages for these runs. A complete users guide to the VEMAP Phase I database which includes more information about this data set can be found at ftp://daac.ornl.gov/data/vemap-1/comp/Phase_1_User_Guide.pdf. ORNL DAAC maintains additional information associated with the VEMAP Project. Data Citation: This data set should be cited as follows: Kittel, T. G. F., N. A. Rosenbloom, T. H. Painter, D. S. Schimel, H. H. Fisher, A. Grimsdell, VEMAP Participants, C. Daly, and E. R. Hunt, Jr. 2002. VEMAP Phase I Database, revised. Available on-line from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.
Grape berry response to heatwaves in a climate change scenario: a physiological, transcriptional, and metabolic overview
GEO Series GSE206753. Vitis vinifera. 66 samples. Type: Expression profiling by high throughput sequencing.
Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios
The Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The initial study was published in 1997, based on output of HadCM2 model forced with greenhouse gas concentration from the IS95 emission scenarios in 1997. Results of the initial study are presented at SEDAC's Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study, released in 2001. The co-authors developed and tested a method for investigating the spatial implications of climate change on crop production. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) dynamic process crop growth models, are specified and validated for one hundred and twenty seven sites in the major world agricultural regions. Results from the crop models, calibrated and validated in the major crop-growing regions, are then used to test functional forms describing the response of yield changes in the climate and environmental conditions. This updated version is based on HadCM3 model output along with GHG concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The crop yield estimates incorporate some major improvements: 1) consistent crop simulation methodology and climate change scenarios; 2) weighting of model site results by contribution to regional and national, and rainfed and irrigated production; 3) quantitative foundation for estimation of physiological CO2 effects on crop yields; 4) Adaptation is explicitly considered; and 5) results are reported by country rather than by Basic Linked System region. The data are produced by A. Iglesias and C. Rosenzweig and the maps are produced by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).
Data from: An objective approach to select climate scenarios when projecting species distribution under climate change
[No abstract entered]
Data from: An objective approach to select climate scenarios when projecting species distribution under climate change
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Data for climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19 related energy demand changes
<p>This repository contains data for the main text figures plus some supplementary figures in the article:<br> Kikstra et al 2021 Nat. Energy. DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8">10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8</a></p> <p>This dataset should be cited as: Kikstra et al. (2021). Data for climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19 related energy demand changes. DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5211169">10.5281/zenodo.5211169</a></p> <p>In order to reproduce the figures, one needs to use the script that is available on GitHub at:<br> <a href="https://github.com/iiasa/covid-energy-demand-scenarios">https://github.com/iiasa/covid-energy-demand-scenarios</a></p> <p>The most accessible way of exploring the scenario data behind this article would be to go to <a href="https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/engage/#/workspaces/60">https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/engage/#/workspaces/60</a>.<br> This goes to a web tool hosted by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) which provides access to a database of these and more variables of interest, defined for each scenario on the detail of MESSAGE regions, with a few example workspaces available within the ENGAGE Scenario Explorer.<br> The Scenario Explorer is a versatile open access tool to browse, visualize and download data and results. Users can freely create a private workspace where customized plots can be saved and shared.<br> For tutorials on how to use the Scenario Explorer, please visit <a href="https://software.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ixmp-server/tutorials.html">https://software.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ixmp-server/tutorials.html</a>.</p> <p>The scenarios that were used for the IPCC Special Report on 1.5C warming (SR1.5) have been made available at <a href="https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/">https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/</a>.</p> <p>The data is available for download at the <a href="https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/engage/">ENGAGE Scenario Explorer</a>. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and science communication, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and <a href="https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/engage/#/license">legal code</a> for more information.</p>
Emissions scenario database of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, hosted by IIASA
<p>This scenario ensemble collects emissions pathways quantitative, model-based scenarios related to the mitigation of climate change.</p> <p>The ensemble was compiled from the energy and integrated-assessment modelling community in response to a call by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, see <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/about-us/climate-advisory-board/call-for-scenario-data-contributions">https://www.eea.europa.eu/about-us/climate-advisory-board/call-for-scenario-data-contributions</a>.</p> <p>The scenario ensemble can be accessed via the <strong>EU Climate Advisory Board Scenario Explorer</strong> hosted by IIASA at <a href="https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/eu-climate-advisory-board">https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/eu-climate-advisory-board</a>. The data can be downloaded and re-used for analysis and data visualization, but re-publication of a substantial portion is prohibited. </p> <p>The reason for the restriction is that we anticipate updates/extensions and (possibly) error corrections of this scenario ensemble.<br> We want to avoid a situation where multiple inconsistent versions of the scenario database are in wide circulation, which can lead to confusion for users. Therefore, please refer to the IIASA Scenario Explorer for the most-up-to-date version of the database.</p> <p>Further guidance and the full license text is available at <a href="https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/eu-climate-advisory-board/#/license">https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/eu-climate-advisory-board/#/license</a>.</p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
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International Brain Laboratory public data
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OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.