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Fig. 1. Occurrence points for 12 in Projected Climate Change Effects On Nuthatch Distribution And Diversity Across Asia
Fig. 1. Occurrence points for 12 Sitta species and one Tichodroma species used in this study. Sitta solangiae and S. victoriae each had fewer than 5 occurrence points and were excluded from the analysis.
Fig. 3 in Projected Climate Change Effects On Nuthatch Distribution And Diversity Across Asia
Fig. 3. Model predictions regarding number and percent of nuthatch species lost due to climate change, along with estimated current and future species richness for nuthatches. Shading ramps range from white (minimum) to dark gray (maximum) as follows: number of species lost 0-5, percent of species lost 0-100, and current and future species richness 0-9 species.
Data from: Potential effects of future climate change on global reptile distributions and diversity
<p class="first-paragraph"><span><strong>Aim:</strong></span><span> Until recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale.</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Location:</strong></span><span> Global, excluding Antarctica</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Time period:</strong></span><span> 1995, 2050, 2080</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Major taxa studied:</strong></span><span> Reptiles</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Methods:</strong></span><span> We modelled the distribution of 6,296 reptile species and assessed potential global as well as realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species-specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3,768 range-restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non-modelled species.</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Results:</strong></span><span> Reptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographic realms, with the greatest decrease in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominating global poleward shift. Non-modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species.</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Main conclusions:</strong></span><span> With ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect as well as considerable impacts on species' range extent, overlap, and position were visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a re-assessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change.</span></p>
Alpine range by species input to simulations that reveal climate and legacy effects
<p>Whether the distribution and assembly of plant species are adapted to current climates or legacy effects poses a problem for their conservation during ongoing climate change. The alpine regions of southern and central Europe (SACEU) are compared to those of the western US and Canada (WUSAC) because they differ in their geographies and histories. Individual-based simulation experiments disentangled the role of geography in species adaptations and legacy effects in four combinations: approximations of observed alpine geographies vs. regular lattices with the same number of regions (realistic and null representations), and virtual species with responses to either climatic or simple spatial gradients (adaptations or legacy effects). Additionally, dispersal distances were varied using five Gaussian kernels. Because the similarity of pairs of regional species pools indicated the processes of assembly at extensive spatiotemporal scales and is a measure of beta diversity, this output of the simulations was correlated to observed similarity for Europe and North America. In North America, correlations were highest for simulations with approximated geography and location-adapted species; those in Europe had their highest correlation with the lattice pattern and climate-adapted species. Only SACEU correlations were sensitive to dispersal limitation. The southern and central European alpine areas are more isolated and with more distinct climates to which species are adapted. In the western US and Canada, less isolation and more mixing of species from refugia have caused location to mask climate adaptation. Among continents, the balance of explanatory factors for the assembly of regional species pools will vary with their unique historical biogeographies, with isolation lessening disequilibria.</p>
Concordant and opposing effects of climate and land-use change on avian assemblages in California's most transformed landscapes
<p>Climate and land-use change could exhibit concordant effects that favor or disfavor the same species, which would amplify their impacts, or species may respond to each threat in a divergent manner, causing opposing effects that moderate their impacts in isolation. We used early 20th-century surveys of birds conducted by Joseph Grinnell paired with modern resurveys and land-use change reconstructed from historic maps to examine avian change in Los Angeles and California's Central Valley (and their surrounding foothills). Occupancy and species richness declined greatly in Los Angeles from urbanization, strong warming (+1.8°C) and drying (-77.2 mm), but remained stable in the Central Valley, despite large-scale agricultural development, average warming (+0.9°C), and increased precipitation (+11.2 mm). While climate was the main driver of species distributions a century ago, the combined impacts of land-use and climate change drove temporal changes in occupancy, with similar numbers of species experiencing concordant and opposing effects.</p>
Data for: Hardwoods influence effect of climate and intraspecific competition on growth of woodland longleaf pine trees
<p>Longleaf pine woodlands of the North American Coastal Plain are proposed to be resilient to climate change impacts, but little is known about changes in limiting factors to longleaf pine growth as climate has changed in the late 20<sup>th</sup> and early 21<sup>st</sup> centuries. Moreover, the role that neighborhood trees play in the context of climate change remains largely unexplored. We used static and moving-window tree-ring and climatic analyses to measure the effects of climate on longleaf pine growth at a site in southwest Georgia, USA. We then performed maximum likelihood analysis to examine the influence of neighboring hardwoods on the response of longleaf pine growth to the joint effects of competition and climate. Analysis of climate data from local stations in southwest Georgia over six decades indicated that mean air temperature decreased until the late 20<sup>th </sup>century and then began to rise, and that the variability of spring and summer precipitation has increased. Tree ring and climate analyses indicated longleaf pine radial growth is sensitive to precipitation and air temperature, and that the strength of correlation of longleaf pine growth to summer air temperature and summer precipitation increased since the 1950s. Likelihood models, which were applied over a shorter (23-year) period and explicitly incorporated competition, did not support a link between summer temperature and growth but did indicate summer precipitation increased growth. Furthermore, basal area of neighboring hardwoods was correlated with greater pine growth per millimeter of precipitation. Basal area of neighboring longleaf pine negatively affected the growth of conspecific trees; the presence of hardwoods increased the competitive effect when basal area of neighboring pine trees was low (<10 m<sup>2</sup> ha<sup>-1</sup>) but decreased the competitive effect when basal area of neighboring pine trees was high (≥ 10 m<sup>2</sup> ha<sup>-1</sup>). These results suggest that retention or recruitment of hardwood trees when restoring longleaf pine woodlands may contribute to increased ability to withstand dry summers and may help to allay concerns of managers that retention of hardwoods will unduly affect the growth of residual mature longleaf pines.</p>
Figure 7.2 of IPCC-IPBES report - The effects of actions to mitigate climate changes on action to mitigate biodiversity and of actions to mitigate biodiversity loss on actions to mitigate climate change
<p>Here are the underlying data and codes for Figure 7.2 of the IPCC-IPBES report (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4659158)<br> </p> <p>We decide to represent only the recognized links (positive and negative) in Figure 7.2. The table1 file represents these relationships. If you decide to represent the non-recognized interactions (gray), you should use the table2 file and re-divide it in the code.</p> <p>The code produces the Sankey diagram, which was used to produce Figure 7.2. The order of the nodes was organized manually to represent better the Chapter 7 discussion. After that, you can export the figure and work in an external program.</p> <p>The final figure was produced using PowerPoint and with labels and icons inserted manually. </p>
The delayed effect of climatic conditions on pre-fledging nestling haematocrit in a suboscine species in Patagonia
<p>Haematocrit, the proportion of blood comprising erythrocytes, is often used as a proxy of individual condition. Nestling haematocrit is influenced by several factors, but ambient temperature is generally agreed as a key driver. It is unclear which day(s) in embryonic or nestling development are most influential in determining pre-fledgling haematocrit. This is important, because if we are able to identify what day(s) nestlings are physiologically most vulnerable to climatic conditions, this may inform future conservation management and help mitigate the effects. We investigated the effect of ambient temperature, precipitation, body size, brood size, age, food abundance and habitat on nestling haematocrit in <em>Aphrastura</em> <em>spinicauda</em> (thorn-tailed Rayaditos). We collected this data from two climatically different locations in Chile: Northern Patagonia (Pucón) and Sub-Antarctic Patagonia (Navarino Island), located ~1800 km further south. We aimed to identify the key drivers of nestling haematocrit and find when nestlings are physiologically most vulnerable to climatic conditions. We confirm that ambient temperature is the key driver of nestling haematocrit, with increasing ambient temperatures nestling haematocrit decreased. However, precipitation also affected haematocrit in the late incubation stage. At low and high precipitation, nestling haematocrit was low and is optimal in light rainfall. Our results show a delayed effect of ambient temperature and precipitation in late incubation and on the day of hatching which can determine pre-fledgling haematocrit, which may cause lower post-fledgling fitness. We found that climatic conditions on the day haematocrit was collected were not important in determining haematocrit. We found that haematocrit was higher in the sub-Antarctic area and that higher temperatures and precipitation on the day of hatching will result in lower nestling haematocrit and poorer pre-fledgling condition. As atmospheric temperatures rise, nestling fitness is at risk. This is a threat to many bird species, especially those in locations vulnerable to climate breakdown.</p>
Effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species and plant functional strategies on the Canary Islands
<p>Occurrence data:</p> <p>We used occurrence data from the Banco de Datos de Biodiversidad de Canarias, an open-access database, for single-island endemic (SIE; n = 325), archipelago endemic (AE; n = 234) and definitely non-endemic native (NEN; n = 149) extant seed plant species (excluding subspecies), in a raster of 500 m x 500 m grid cells covering the Canary Islands (<a href="https://www.biodiversidadcanarias.es/biota/">https://www.biodiversidadcanarias.es/biota/</a>) [<em>accessed 14/03/2022</em>]. The database includes all species listed in the checklist of the Banco de Datos de Biodiversidad de Canarias, across 31,628 grid cell assemblages. Species range in occurrence from 1 to 4,466 cells. We only retrieved occurrences for which a species has been certainly observed or collected (precision level 1 of four levels). The Banco de Datos de Biodiversidad de Canarias provides presence-only information that is spatially biased by sampling effort (Hortal et al., 2007). However, the sampling bias of SIEs, AEs, and NENs is less than for species overall because studies incorporated into the database involved focus on, and extensive sampling of, endemic and non-endemic native species (<a href="https://www.biodiversidadcanarias.es/biota/documentos">https://www.biodiversidadcanarias.es/biota/documentos</a>). We considered a species (pseudo-)absent if it was not recorded at a site, although we recognise that there is debate as to whether this truly represents absences.</p>
Data for: Phylogenomics and historical biogeography of Hydrangeeae (Hydrangeaceae) elucidate the effects of geologic and climatic dynamics on diversification
<p>Demonstrating the process of transregional biogeography and mechanisms underlying evolutionary radiations is crucial to understanding biological evolution. Here, we use Hydrangeeae (Hydrangeaceae), a tribe with a unique disjunct distribution and complex trait variations, using a solid phylogenetic framework, to investigate how geographical and climatic factors interact with functional traits to trigger plant evolutionary radiations. We constructed the first highly supported and dated phylogenetic framework using 79 protein-coding genes obtained from 81 plastomes, representing 63 species and all major clades, and found that most extant species originated from asynchronous diversification of two lineages undergoing repeated expansion and retraction, at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between East Asia and North America, during the Eocene to Pleistocene (driven by geologic and climatic dynamics). In accordance with these drivers, interactions of flora between central-eastern China and Japan occurred frequently after the Late Tertiary. We found that resource limitation and range fragmentation likely accelerated the diversification of Hydrangeeae, which supports the resource-use hypothesis. Our study sheds light on the evolutionary radiation and assembly of flora within East Asia, and the East Asian-North American disjunction, through integration of phylogenomic and biogeographic data with functional trait and ecological data.</p>
Model simulation data used in "The global impact of the transport sectors on the atmospheric aerosol and the resulting climate effects under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)" (Righi et al., Earth Syst. Dynam., 2023)
<p>This dataset contains the output of the EMAC global model simulations analysed and discussed in Righi et al. (<i>Earth Syst. Dynam.</i>, 2023). For details see the README.md file.</p>
Data from: The sequential direct and indirect effects of mountain uplift, climatic niche and floral trait evolution on diversification dynamics in an Andean plant clade
<p><span>Why and how organismal lineages radiate is commonly studied through either assessing abiotic factors (biogeography, geomorphological processes, climate) or biotic factors (traits, interactions). Despite increasing awareness that both abiotic and biotic processes may have important joint effects on diversification dynamics, few attempts have been made to quantify the relative importance and timing of these factors, and their potentially interlinked direct and indirect effects, on lineage diversification.</span></p> <p><span>We here combine assessments of historical biogeography, geomorphology, climatic niche, vegetative and floral trait evolution to test whether these factors jointly, or in isolation, explain diversification dynamics of a Neotropical plant clade (Merianieae, Melastomataceae). After estimating ancestral areas and disparification over time in climate and trait space, we employ Phylogenetic Path Analyses as a synthesis tool to test eleven hypotheses on the individual direct and indirect effects of these factors on diversification rates.</span></p> <p><span>We find strongest support for interlinked effects of colonization of the uplifting Andes during the mid-Miocene and rapid abiotic climatic niche evolution in explaining a burst in diversification rate in Merianieae. Within Andean habitats, later disparification in floral trait space allowed for the exploitation of wider pollination niches (i.e., shifts from bee to vertebrate pollinators), but did not affect diversification rates. Our approach of including both vegetative and floral trait evolution, rare in assessments of plant diversification in general, highlights important pre-adaptations to mountain colonization, specifically woody habit and larger flowers. Overall, and in concert with the idea that ecological opportunity is a key element of evolutionary radiations, our results suggest that a combination of rapid niche evolution and pre-adapted traits were critical for the exploitation of newly available niche space in the Andes in the mid-Miocene. Further, our results emphasize the importance of incorporating both abiotic and biotic factors into the same analytical framework if we aim to quantify the relative and interlinked effects of these processes on diversification.</span></p>
Replication data for: Effect of Regional Marine Cloud Brightening Interventions on Climate Tipping Points
<p>Data for reproduction of Hirasawa, H., Hingmire, D., Singh, H., Rasch, P. J., & Mitra, P. (2023). Effect of regional marine cloud brightening interventions on climate tipping elements. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL104314. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104314</p> <p>Includes:</p> <ul> <li>Raw monthly 2m temperature (TREFHT) and precipitation (PRECT) data from CESM2 MCB simulations.</li> <li>Ensemble mean data from CESM2 Large Ensemble</li> <li>Tipping point metric timeseries from CESM2 LE Historical and SSP2-4.5 and CESM2 MCB simulations.</li> <li>Jupyter notebook displaying plotting script</li> <li>Scripts showing procedure for computing tipping point metrics</li> <li>CAM6 SourceMod changes to apply cloud droplet number concentration perturbations</li> <li>Top of atmosphere long and shortwave anomalies from fixed sea surface temperature simulations for computing effective radiative forcing</li> </ul>
Species richness: a pivotal factor mediating the effects of land use intensification and climate on grassland multifunctionality
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Data for: Dissolved organic matter (DOM) offsets the detrimental effects of climate change in the nitrogen fixing cyanobacterium Crocosphaera
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Data from: Effects of climate and forest development on habitat specialization and biodiversity in Central European mountain forests
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Data from: The sequential direct and indirect effects of mountain uplift, climatic niche and floral trait evolution on diversification dynamics in an Andean plant clade
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Data from: Assisted migration of cloud forest trees: Unearthing the effects of climatic transfer distance
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Species mixture effects and climate influence growth, recruitment and mortality in Interior West U.S.A. Populus tremuloides - conifer communities
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The delayed effect of climatic conditions on pre-fledging nestling haematocrit in a suboscine species in Patagonia
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