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192 results for “environmental modelling”
Publicly available QSPR models for environmental media persistence
<p>The evaluation of persistency of chemicals in environmental media (water, soil, sediment) is included in European Regulations, in the context of the Persistence, Bioaccumulation and Toxicity (PBT) assessment. In-silico prediction are a valuable alternative for compounds screening and prioritization. However, already existing prediction tools have limitations: narrow applicability domains due to their relatively small training sets, and lack of medium-specific models. A dataset of 1579 unique compounds has been collected, merging several persistence data sources annotated by, at least, one experimental dissipation half-life value for the given environmental medium. This dataset was used to train binary classification models discriminating persistent / non-persistent (P / nP) compounds based on REACH half-life thresholds on sediment, water and soil compartments. Models were built using ISIDA (In SIlico design and Data Analysis) fragment descriptors and Support Vector Regression, Random Forest and Naïve Bayesian machine-learning methods. All models scored satisfactory performances: sediment being the most performing one (BA<sub>ext</sub> = 0.91), followed by water (BA<sub>ext</sub> = 0.77) and soil (BA<sub>ext</sub> = 0.76). The latter suffer from low detection of persistent (“P”) compounds (Sn<sub>ext</sub> = 0.50), reflecting discrepancies in reported half-life measurements among the different data sources. Generated models and collected data are made publicly available.</p>
Data: Using environmental DNA and occupancy modeling to estimate rangewide metapopulation dynamics
<p>We demonstrate the power of combining two emergent tools for resolving rangewide metapopulation dynamics. First, we employed environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys to efficiently generate multi-season rangewide site occupancy histories. Second, we developed a novel<i> </i>dynamic, spatial multiscale occupancy model to estimate metapopulation dynamics. The model incorporates spatial relationships, explicitly accounts for non-detection bias and allows direct evaluation of the drivers of extinction and colonization. We applied these tools to examine metapopulation dynamics of endangered tidewater goby, a species endemic to California estuarine habitats. We analyzed rangewide eDNA data from 190 geographically isolated sites (813 total water samples) surveyed from two years (2016 and 2017). Rangewide estimates of the proportion of sites that were occupied varied little between 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.51). However, there was evidence of extinction and colonization dynamics. The probability of extinction of an occupied site (0.106) and probability of colonization of an unoccupied site (0.085) were nearly equal. Stability in site occupancy proportions combined with nearly equal rates of extinction and colonization suggests a dynamic equilibrium between the two years surveyed. Assessment of covariate effects revealed that colonization probability increased as the number of occupied neighboring sites increased and as distance between occupied sites decreased. We show that eDNA surveys can rapidly provide a snapshot of a species distribution over a broad geographic range, and when these surveys are paired with occupancy modeling, can uncover metapopulation dynamics and their drivers.</p>
Survey of environmental modellers
<p>A survey of environmental modellers, conducted in 2020 and disseminated via Twitter.</p>
Data from: Development of a protocol for environmental impact studies using causal modelling
1- The global issue of water scarcity caused by climate change and human utilisation highlights the importance of an efficient assessment of water quality in freshwater systems. One of the challenges facing water management in environmental impact studies is the difficulty of inferring causality in complex systems. Traditional water assessment methods are inadequate because they are challenged to separate natural variation from the effect of human activities. 2- Knowing the causal structure of a complex ecosystem will enable managers to identify key anthropogenic, climate and flow drivers of water quality, and make informed decisions about interventions that improve water and environmental quality. In this study, I show how causal modelling can facilitate decision making for water treatment plant managers to improve their environmental management of this valuable resource. 3- Models built using causal modelling techniques, including structural equation modelling and the principles of Bayesian Networks, were utilised for management decision making purposes. The discharge load values were manipulated in the models to predict the effect of a potential intervention, e.g. treatment plant upgrade, on the values of the water quality variables in the creek. That is, water quality variables were predicted when an imaginary or counterfactual situation was imposed on the models. 4- This study showed that there would not be any observable effect of effluent on macroinvertebrate communities if the discharge loads of chlorophyll a, total organic carbon, total phosphorus, nitrate, and conductivity were reduced to 0.1 of observed values. The concentrations of environmental variables in the creek would return to their baseline levels when their corresponding discharge loads in the effluent were halved or divided by 10. 5- Based on the findings of this study, managers in the field of environmental impact studies can predict the response of a system in the presence of potential interventions under complex and uncertain conditions. The implementation of such techniques offers great promise in the wider field of environmental management where accounting for multiple factors structuring ecosystems in necessary to adequately represent causality.
Data from: Is there a correlation between abundance and environmental suitability derived from ecological niche modelling? A meta-analysis
It is thought that species abundance is correlated with environmental suitability and that environmental variables, scale, and type of model fitting can confound this relationship. We performed a meta-analysis to (i) test whether species abundance is positively correlated with environmental suitability derived from correlative ecological niche models (ENM), (ii) test whether studies encompassing large areas within a species range (>50%) exhibited higher AS correlations than studies encompassing small areas within a species range (<50%), (iii) assess which modelling method provided higher AS correlation, and (iv) compare strength of the AS relationship between studies using only climatic variables and those that used both climatic and other environmental variables to derive suitability. We used correlation coefficients to measure the relationship between abundance and environmental suitability derived from ENM. Each correlation coefficient was considered an effect size in a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis. In all cases we found a significantly positive relationship between abundance and suitability. This relationship was consistent regardless of scale of study, ENM method, or set of variables used to derive suitability. There was no difference in strength of correlation between studies focusing on large or small areas within a species' range or among ENM methods. Studies using other variables in combination with climate exhibited higher AS correlations than studies using only climatic variables. We conclude that occurrence data can be a reasonable proxy for abundance, especially for vertebrates, and the use of local variables increases the strength of the AS relationship. Use of ENMs can significantly decrease survey costs and allow the study of large-scale abundance patterns using less information. Including only climatic variables in ENM may confound the relationship between abundance and suitability when compared to studies including variables taken locally. However, modelers and conservationists must be aware that high environmental suitability does not always indicate high abundance.
Data from: Modeling effects of environmental change on wolf population dynamics, trait evolution, and life history
Environmental change has been observed to generate simultaneous responses in population dynamics, life history, gene frequencies, and morphology in a number of species. But how common are such eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change likely to be? Are they inevitable, or do they require a specific type of change? Can we accurately predict eco-evolutionary responses? We address these questions using theory and data from the study of Yellowstone wolves. We show that environmental change is expected to generate eco-evolutionary change, that changes in the average environment will affect wolves to a greater extent than changes in how variable it is, and that accurate prediction of the consequences of environmental change will probably prove elusive.
Data from: Spatial scaling of environmental variables improves species-habitat models of fishes in a small, sand-bed lowland river
Habitat suitability and the distinct mobility of species depict fundamental keys for explaining and understanding the distribution of river fishes. In recent years, comprehensive data on river hydromorphology has been mapped at spatial scales down to 100 m, potentially serving high resolution species-habitat models, e.g., for fish. However, the relative importance of specific hydromorphological and in-stream habitat variables and their spatial scales of influence is poorly understood. Applying boosted regression trees, we developed species-habitat models for 13 fish species in a sand-bed lowland river based on river morphological and in-stream habitat data. First, we calculated mean values for the predictor variables in five distance classes (from the sampling site up to 4000 m up- and downstream) to identify the spatial scale that best predicts the presence of fish species. Second, we compared the suitability of measured variables and assessment scores related to natural reference conditions. Third, we identified variables which best explained the presence of fish species. The mean model quality (AUC = 0.78, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) significantly increased when information on the habitat conditions up- and downstream of a sampling site (maximum AUC at 2500 m distance class, +0.049) and topological variables (e.g., stream order) were included (AUC = +0.014). Both measured and assessed variables were similarly well suited to predict species' presence. Stream order variables and measured cross section features (e.g., width, depth, velocity) were best-suited predictors. In addition, measured channel-bed characteristics (e.g., substrate types) and assessed longitudinal channel features (e.g., naturalness of river planform) were also good predictors. These findings demonstrate (i) the applicability of high resolution river morphological and instream-habitat data (measured and assessed variables) to predict fish presence, (ii) the importance of considering habitat at spatial scales larger than the sampling site, and (iii) that the importance of (river morphological) habitat characteristics differs depending on the spatial scale.
Data from: Correlation between genetic diversity and environmental suitability: taking uncertainty from ecological niche models into account
The hindcast of shifts in the geographical ranges of species as estimated by ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been coupled with phylogeographical patterns, allowing the inference of past processes that drove population differentiation and genetic variability. However, more recently, some studies have suggested that maps of environmental suitability estimated by ENM may be correlated to species' abundance, raising the possibility of using environmental suitability to infer processes related to population demographic dynamics and genetic variability. In both cases, one of the main problems is that there is a wide variation in ENM development methods and climatic models. In this study, we analyse the relationship between heterozygosity (He) and environmental suitability from multiple ENMs for 25 population estimates for Dipteryx alata, a widely distributed, endemic tree species of the Cerrado region of central Brazil. We propose a new approach for generating a statistical distribution of correlations under randomly generated ENM. The confidence intervals from these distributions indicate how model selection with different properties affects the ability to detect a correlation of interest (e.g. the correlation between He and suitability). Additionally, our approach allows us to explore which particular ensemble of ENMs produces the better result for finding an association between environmental suitability and He. Caution is necessary when choosing a method or a climatic data set for modelling geographical distributions, but the new approach proposed here provides a conservative way to evaluate the ability of ensembles to detect patterns of interest.
Data from: Importance of antecedent environmental conditions in modeling species distributions
Although species distributions can change in an unexpectedly short period of time, most species distribution models (SDMs) use only long-term averaged environmental conditions to explain species distributions. We aimed to demonstrate the importance of incorporating antecedent environmental conditions into SDMs in comparison to long-term averaged environmental conditions. We modeled the presence/absence of 18 fish species captured across 108 sampling events along a 50-km length of the Sagami River in Japan throughout the 1990s (one to four times per site at 45 sites). We constructed and compared the two types of SDMs: (1) a conventional model that uses only long-term averaged (10-year) environmental conditions; and (2) a proposed model that incorporates environmental conditions 2 years prior to a sampling event (antecedent conditions) together with long-term averages linked to life-history stages. These models both included geomorphological, hydrological, and sampling conditions as predictors. A random forest algorithm was applied for modeling and quantifying the relative importance of the predictors. For seven species, antecedent hydrological conditions were more important than the long-term averaged hydrological conditions. Furthermore, the distributions of two species with low prevalence could not be predicted using long-term averaged hydrological conditions but only using antecedent hydrological conditions. In conclusion, incorporating antecedent environmental factors linked with life-history stages at appropriate time scales can better explain changes in species distribution through time.
Data from: A dynamic state model of migratory behavior and physiology to assess the consequences of environmental variation and anthropogenic disturbance on marine vertebrates
Integrating behavior and physiology is critical to formulating new hypotheses on the evolution of animal life-history strategies. Migratory capital breeders acquire most of the energy they need to sustain migration, gestation and lactation before parturition. Therefore, when predicting the impact of environmental variation on such species, a mechanistic understanding of the physiology of their migratory behavior is required. Using baleen whales as a model system, we developed a dynamic state variable model that captures the interplay among behavioral decisions, energy, reproductive needs and the environment. We applied the framework to blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, and explored the effects of environmental and anthropogenic perturbations on female reproductive success. We demonstrate the emergence of migration to track prey resources, enabling us to quantify the trade-offs among capital breeding, body condition, and metabolic expenses. We predict that periodic climatic oscillations affect reproductive success less than unprecedented environmental changes do. The effect of localized, acute anthropogenic impacts depended on whales' behavioral response to the disturbance; chronic, but weaker, disturbances had little effect on reproductive success. Because we link behavior and vital rates by modeling individuals' energetic budgets, we provide a general framework to investigate the ecology of migration and assess the population consequences of disturbance, while identifying critical knowledge gaps.
Data from: Environmental filtering improves ecological niche models across multiple scales
1. A clear challenge for ecological niche modeling is determining how to best mitigate the effects of sampling bias from commonly collected biodiversity data. Recent approaches have focused on filtering occurrences in overrepresented regions based on geographic or environmental proximity. 2. We tested the efficacy of filtering in geographic and environmental space using occurrence data from four species. Our evaluation strategies examined 14 distance measures in geographic and environmental spaces and eight combinations of environmental variables and their ordinations. This resulted in 78 datasets for each species, which we evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), the difference between training and testing AUC, omission rate, the true skill statistic, and Schoener's D to examine the effects of different filtering schemes. 3. The degree of change produced by filtering on predicted suitability and evaluation statistics increased with increasing range size. Environmental filtering resulted in higher model fit at larger extents and retained more occurrences than geographic filtering. 4. Our results indicate that models should be evaluated using multiple evaluation statistics at multiple thresholds. The use of bin sizes when filtering in environmental space allows for simple comparison between species and filter types and makes for an easily reportable and repeatable distance metric. We specifically recommend that ecological niche models using natural history collection data filter in environmental space with variables derived from permutation importance or the first few axes of a principal components ordination.
Data from: Modeling spatial expansion of invasive alien species: relative contributions of environmental and anthropogenic factors to the spreading of the harlequin ladybird in France
Species distribution models (SDM) have often been used to predict the potential ranges of introduced species and prioritize management strategies. However, this approach assumes equilibrium between occurrences and environmental gradients, an assumption which is violated during the invasion process, where many suitable sites are empty because the species has not yet reached them. Here we considered the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis as a case study to show the benefits of using a dynamic colonization–extinction model that does not assume equilibrium. We used a multi-year occupancy model incorporating environmental, anthropogenic and neighborhood effects, to identify factors that explained spreading variation of this species in France from 2004, when only a few occupied sites were detected, to 2011. We found that anthropogenic factors (urbanization, agriculture, vineyards, and presence/absence of highways) explained more variation in the diffusion process than environmental factors (winter and summer temperatures, wind-speed, and rainfall). The surface of urbanization was the major anthropogenic factor increasing the probability of colonization. The average summer temperature was the main environmental factor affecting colonization, with a negative effect when high or low. The neighborhood effect revealed that colonization was mostly influenced by contributions coming from a radius of 24 km around the focal cell. The contribution of neighborhood decreases over time, suggesting that H. axyridis is reaching its equilibrium in France. This is confirmed by the small discrepancy observed between the performance of our approach and a SDM approach when predicting a single year occupancy pattern at the end of the study period. Our approach has the advantage of explicitly modelling the state of the biological system during the spatial expansion and identifying colonization constraints. This allows managers to explore the effect of different actions on the system at key moments of the invasion process, hence providing a powerful approach to prioritize management strategies.
Data from: Where consumers control plant reproduction in coastal wetlands: the environmental stress model in plants' versus consumers' perspectives
<p>This is the data set for the paper entitled "Where consumers control plant reproduction in coastal wetlands: the environmental stress model in plants’ versus consumers’ perspectives" upcoming in the Journal of Ecology.</p> <p>The metadata for interpreting the data set are included in the Excel file. </p>
A companion dataset to the paper Scenarios of future climate zone changes in Europe based on EURO-CORDEX regional model ensemble by Holtanová et al., to be submitted to Regional Environmental Change
<p>The content of the dataset is described in the metadata.txt file. </p>
Including population and environmental dynamic heterogeneities in continuum models of collective behaviour with applications to locust foraging and group structure Data and Code
<p>This dataset includes all data used for the creation of "Including dynamic population and environmental heterogeneity in continuum models of collective behaviour with applications to locust foraging and group structure" as well as a snapshot of the code used.<br><br>Each zip should be unzippable and the code should operate with only the contents of the zip file.</p>
Code and datasets of Socio-environmental modelling shows physics-like confidence with water modelling surpassing it in numerical claims
Open the record for dataset details and reuse information.
Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation
<p>Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We modelled the environmental envelopes of twelve predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using current conditions and two future global climate change scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0 °C raise) and RCP8.5 (3.7 °C raise). Two thirds of our models suggested a reduced potential range across species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when we consider the limited dispersal ability of these grasshoppers, all twelve species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96-100% reduction in suitable habitat. Alpine species are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climatic shifts, and species that have limited migratory ability will be particularly at risk of habitat loss, fragmentation and local extinction. Here we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand, and internationally, will face in light of anthropogenic climate change</p>
United States Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (USEEIO) Modeling Framework
<p>This is a snapshot of the <a href="https://github.com/USEPA/useeio">USEEIO modeling framework</a> repository that is compilation of a README, versioning scheme, and a python script supplemented with a to convert a USEEIO model generated from <a href="https://github.com/USEPA/useeior">useeior </a>in the API format into openLCA schema JSON-LD files. This is not source code for generating the USEEIO v2.0 model.</p>
Modeling Thermal Emission Under Lunar Surface Environmental Conditions
<p>Codes and data required to reproduce results from Prem et al. (2022), Modeling Thermal Emission Under Lunar Surface Environmental Conditions, Planetary Science Journal (https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ac7ced).</p> <p>The file flowchart.pdf contains an overview of the workflow to model ambient and anisothermal thermal emission spectra using the codes contained in codes.zip. The file lab_spectra.xlsx contains the laboratory spectra used in the publication, together with citation information. Please feel free to contact lead author Dr. Parvathy Prem (parvathy.prem@jhuapl.edu) with any questions. </p>
Spatiotemporal monitoring of the rare Northern dragonhead, Dracocephalum ruyschiana (Lamiaceae): SNP genotyping and environmental niche modelling herbarium specimens
<p><strong>Aim: </strong>We have studied spatiotemporal genetic change in the Northern dragonhead, a plant species that has experienced a drastic population decline and habitat loss in Europe. We add a temporal perspective to the monitoring of dragonhead in Norway by genotyping herbarium specimens up to 200 years old. We also assess whether dragonhead has achieved its potential distribution in Norway. Location: Europe (mainly Norway)</p> <p><strong>Methods:</strong> We have applied a microfluidic array consisting of 96 SNP markers on 130 herbarium specimens collected from 1820 to 2008, mainly from Norway (83) but also beyond (47). We have compared our new genotype data with existing data from modern samples. We have modelled the species' environmental niche and potential distribution in Norway using sample metadata and observational records.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>The SNP array successfully genotyped all included herbarium specimens. The captured genetic diversity was negatively correlated with distance from Norway. The historical-modern comparison revealed similar genetic structure and diversity across space and limited genetic change through time in Norway. The ENM suggests that dragonhead is anchored in warmer and drier habitats.</p> <p><strong>Main conclusions: </strong>With appropriate design procedures, the SNP array technology is promising for genotyping old herbarium specimens. We found no signs of any regional bottleneck. The regional areas in Norway have remained genetically divergent, however, both from each other and more so from populations outside of Norway, rendering continued protection of the species in Norway relevant. The ENM suggests that dragonhead has not fully achieved its potential distribution in Norway.</p>
ScienceDex guides
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These curated guides explain access requirements, typical timelines, costs, and reuse considerations for widely used research datasets.
Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.