Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Climate change increases predation risk for a keystone species of the boreal forest

Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) form a keystone predator-prey cycle that has large impacts on the North-American boreal forest vertebrate community. Snowshoe hares and lynx are both well-suited for snowy winters, but climate change associated shifts in snow conditions could lower hare survival and alter cyclic dynamics. Using detailed monitoring of snowshoe hare cause-specific mortality, behaviour, and prevailing weather, we demonstrate that hare mortality risk is strongly influenced by variation in snow conditions. Although predation risk from lynx was largely unaffected by snow conditions, coyote (Canis latrans) predation increased in shallow snow. Maximum snow depth in our study area has decreased 33% over the last two decades and predictions based on prolonged shallow snow indicate future hare survival could resemble that seen during population declines. Our results indicate that climate change could disrupt cyclic dynamics in the boreal forest.

Supporting data for changing climate reallocates the carbon debt of frequent-fire forests

Ongoing climate change will likely alter the carbon carrying capacity of forests as they adjust to climatic extremes and changing disturbance regimes. Increasing drought frequency and severity are already causing widespread tree mortality events, which can exacerbate the carbon debt that has developed as a result of fire-exclusion. Reducing tree density and surface fuels decreases the risk of high-severity wildfire and may also limit drought-induced mortality by reducing competition. We utilized a long-term thinning and burning experiment in a mixed-conifer forest to investigate the effects of the 2012-2015 California drought on forest carbon dynamics, including the carbon emissions from a second-entry prescribed fire that followed the drought. We assessed differences in carbon stability and drought survival across treatments, with the expectation that both carbon stability and survival probability would increase with increasing treatment intensity (decreasing basal area). Additionally, we analyzed the effects of drought- mortality on second-entry burn emissions and compared emissions for the first and second-entry burns. We did not find a linear relationship between treatment intensity and carbon stability, which was in part driven by varying relationships between growing space and survival across treatments. Drought mortality also increased dead tree and surface fuel carbon in all treatments, which contributed to an increase in second-entry burn emissions for two of the three burn treatments. Our findings suggest that restoration treatments will not serve as a panacea for ongoing climate change and that the carbon debt of these forests will increase as the carbon carrying capacity adjusts to severe drought events. Managing this additional carbon debt with prescribed fire will help reduce the risk of additional mortality from wildfire, but at an increasing carbon cost for forest management.

Climate change and defoliation interact to affect root length across northern temperate grasslands

1. Grassland plants, especially their root systems, are dynamic and can buffer changes resulting from exposure to multiple stressors; however, the interactive stressor effects on root dynamics and associated aboveground growth are poorly understood. 2. Here, we examine the effects of changed precipitation and air temperature, and defoliation intensity on root length dynamics and aboveground biomass using the third year data from a multifactor experiment conducted across three northern temperate grasslands. 3. We found that root length was more sensitive to the changes in environmental and management conditions than root mass, demonstrating the importance of root length as an indicator of rapid root system changes. Across all sites, warming, altered precipitation, and defoliation intensity interacted to affect root length while aboveground biomass was only affected by defoliation intensity, indicating that the root system was more responsive than aboveground biomass when climatic conditions change. Overall, drought reduced root length, particularly under low defoliation intensity, as well as in combination with warming and heavy defoliation, highlighting the risk of additive effects of such environmental stresses. Across unclipped plots, aboveground biomass was positively associated with total root length, the latter of which further interacted with precipitation, to affect aboveground biomass. Compared to defoliated communities, non-defoliated plant communities exhibited a greater ability to maintain aboveground biomass under drought conditions via increases in root system efficiency (the amount of aboveground biomass produced per unit of root length invested). 4. Our results highlight the rapid change of root length in the face of interactive stressors. We postulate that the degree of stability in aboveground biomass is driven by the altered root system dynamics or species turnover. Future studies are warranted that more directly assess how root length responses under climate change impact other important plant traits in grasslands.

Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have classically operated under the simplifying assumptions that there are no barriers to gene flow, species are genetically homogeneous (i.e., no population-specific local adaptation), and all individuals share the same niche. Yet, these assumptions are violated for most broadly distributed species. Here we incorporate genetic data from the widespread riparian tree species narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) to examine whether including intraspecific genetic variation can alter model performance and predictions of climate change impacts. We found that (1) P. angustifolia is differentiated into six genetic groups across its range from México to Canada, and (2) different populations occupy distinct climate niches representing unique ecotypes. Comparing model discriminatory power, (3) all genetically-informed ecological niche models (gENMs) outperformed the standard species-level ENM (3-14% increase in AUC; 1-23% increase in pROC). Furthermore, (4) gENMs predicted large differences among ecotypes in both the direction and magnitude of responses to climate change, and (5) revealed evidence of niche divergence, particularly for the Eastern Rocky Mountain ecotype. (6) Models also predicted progressively increasing fragmentation and decreasing overlap between ecotypes. Contact zones are often hotspots of diversity that are critical for supporting species' capacity to respond to present and future climate change, thus predicted reductions in connectivity among ecotypes is of conservation concern. We further examined the generality of our findings by comparing our model developed for a higher elevation Rocky Mountain species with a related desert riparian cottonwood, P. fremontii. Together our results suggest that incorporating intraspecific genetic information can improve model performance by addressing this important source of variance. gENMs bring an evolutionary perspective to niche modeling and provide a truly "adaptive management" approach to support conservation genetic management of species facing global change.

Integrating functional connectivity in designing networks of protected areas under climate change: a caribou case-study

Land-use change and climate change are recognized as two main drivers of the current biodiversity decline. Protected areas help safeguard the landscape from additional anthropogenic disturbances and, when properly designed, can help species cope with climate change impacts. When designed to protect the regional biodiversity rather than to conserve focal species or landscape elements, protected areas need to cover a representative sample of the regional biodiversity and be functionally connected, facilitating individual movements among protected areas in a network to maximize their effectiveness. We developed a methodology to define effective protected areas to implement in a regional network using ecological representativeness and functional connectivity as criteria. We illustrated this methodology in the Gaspésie region of Québec, Canada. We simulated movements for the endangered Atlantic-Gaspésie caribou population (Rangifer tarandus caribou), using an individual-based model, to determine functional connectivity based on this large mammal. We created multiple protected areas network scenarios and evaluated their ecological representativeness and functional connectivity for the current and future conditions. We selected a subset of the most effective network scenarios and extracted the protected areas included in them. There was a tradeoff between ecological representativeness and functional connectivity for the created networks. Only a few protected areas among those available were repeatedly chosen in the most effective networks. Protected areas maximizing both ecological representativeness and functional connectivity represented suitable areas to implement in an effective protected areas network. These areas ensured that a representative sample of the regional biodiversity was covered by the network, as well as maximizing the movement over time between and inside the protected areas for the focal population.

Data from: Variable effects of a changing climate on lay dates and productivity across the range of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker

Many temperate bird species are breeding earlier in response to warming temperatures. We examined the effects of climate on breeding phenology and productivity in 19 populations across the range of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis), an endangered species endemic to pine (Pinus spp.) forests in the southeastern United States. Red-cockaded Woodpeckers nested earlier in warmer springs and delayed nesting in wetter springs. Earlier nesting and larger group sizes resulted in higher productivity. Spring temperatures have warmed over time across the range, but this has not led to range-wide advances in nesting date over time. Coastal and northern populations have exhibited a trend of earlier nesting over time, but the response of inland populations has been variable, including some populations in which nesting has become later over time. Geographic patterns included high and increasing productivity at higher latitudes, and declining productivity in the southwestern portion of the range, suggesting a possible shift in acceptable climate conditions for the species. Earlier nesting over time was associated with increasing productivity at higher latitudes, while elsewhere earlier nesting over time was associated with declining or stable productivity, suggesting that populations differ in their ability to adjust to a changing climate. The Red-cockaded Woodpecker is a habitat specialist heavily reliant on habitat management and has little capacity to shift its range, so its long-term viability will depend on its ability to adjust in place to changing local conditions.

opencc-by-4.0Sep 2020View details →

How a Homo goes extinct. Climatic change and the demise of our ancestors - Supplemental Data Tables

Supplemental Data Tables (Table S1-S4) for results related to manuscript "How a Homo goes extinct. Climatic change and the demise of our ancestors"

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2020View details →

Climate model data from "Changes in local and global climate feedbacks in the absence of interactive clouds: Southern Ocean-climate interactions in two intermediate-complexity models"

This Dataset contains the model output described in the study "Changes in local and global climate feedbacks in the absence of interactive clouds: Southern Ocean-climate interactions in two intermediate-complexity models" by Pfister and Stocker 2020, published in Journal of Climate. The two zip files contain the model output of the two models Bern3D-LPX and LOVECLIM, in folder structures explained below. Bern3D-LPX: The 3 folders contain model simulations tuned to different ECS values (2, 3 and 6 Kelvin). Each folder contains three subfolders corresponding to three simulations: Control, 2xCO2 and 4xCO2. For each simulation, two netcdf model output files are given: a timeseries file for quick overview of various spatially averaged variables (e.g., global mean temperature), and a full output file for local analyses as done in the study. For the main simulations with an ECS of 3 Kelvin, annual mean output is provided for the first 500 years of each simulation. Thereafter, the full output is available only for selected years, which can be read out from the netcdf time dimension or, e.g., the netcdf variable "baseyear". Simulations with an ECS of 2 and 6 Kelvin are only used for Figure 8 and its discussion, therefore their full output file was written with less yearly outputs than the main simulation with ECS=3 Kelvin to reduce data load. LOVECLIM: The 2 folders contain the 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 simulations. No separate Control simulations were made, but the first 1000 years of each simulation are unperturbed and used as a control reference (details in Pfister and Stocker 2020, J.Clim.). The two netcdf files for each simulation correspond to atmospheric variables (atmmmyl_cat.nc) and ocean variables (CLIO3m_cat_CO2_2_regridded.nc). Note that the spatial resolution of the atmosphere and ocean component of LOVECLIM are different. Monthly output is provided for the given variables of the full 2000-year-simulations.   For a detailed description how these model outputs were analyzed, please refer to Pfister and Stocker 2020, J. Clim.

Data from: Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival-breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change

Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival-breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long-term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival-to-breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017 the mean arrival and egg-laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5-6 days), with considerable between-individual variation in the arrival-breeding interval. The arrival-breeding interval was shorter for: (1) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early arriving birds, (2) for experienced females compared to first-year breeders, (3) as spring progressed, and (4) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival-breeding interval being absent in late arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early- to mid-arriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early- versus late-arriving birds.

Data from: Influence of climate change and post-delisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality, and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2020View details →

Impact of cropland physiology and phenology on watershed hydrology in a semi-arid watershed in the Pacific Northwest in a changing climate

The scripts and figures for the study.   The scripts for creating the CLM5 case with transient CO2 concentration over UCPR watershed For the CO2 concentration and N deposition inputs, please find at <a href="https://svn-ccsm-inputdata.cgd.ucar.edu/trunk/inputdata/lnd/clm2/">https://svn-ccsm-inputdata.cgd.ucar.edu/trunk/inputdata/lnd/clm2/</a> inputdata: <a href="https://github.com/bwZh/SFA-CO2-effects-using-CLM5">https://github.com/bwZh/SFA-CO2-effects-using-CLM5</a> domain data: domain.lnd.1kmx1km_UCPR_c20190605.nc. parameter data: clm5_params_calibration3_wwrainfed_UCPRvcmax.c171117.nc surface data: Please contact <a href="mailto:bowen.zhu@pnnl.gov">bowen.zhu@pnnl.gov</a> or <a href="mailto:bwzhu@mail.bnu.edu.cn">bwzhu@mail.bnu.edu.cn</a>

opencc-zeroOct 2020View details →

Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density dependent population regulation in blue mussels

1. The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry, or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species. 2. Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate-driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes. 3. Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17-year data set on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030. 4. Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density-dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e., low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years). 5. We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel. 08-Oct-2020

opencc-zeroOct 2020View details →

Up in the air: threats to Afromontane biodiversity from climate change and habitat loss revealed by genetic monitoring of the Ethiopian Highlands bat

Whilst climate change is recognised as a major future threat to biodiversity, most species are currently threatened by extensive human-induced habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation. Tropical high altitude alpine and montane forest ecosystems and their biodiversity are particularly sensitive to temperature increases under climate change, but they are also subject to accelerated pressures from land conversion and degradation due to a growing human population. We studied the combined effects of anthropogenic land-use change, past and future climate changes and mountain range isolation on the endemic Ethiopian Highlands long-eared bat, Plecotus balensis, an understudied bat that is restricted to the remnant natural high altitude Afroalpine and Afromontane habitats. We integrated ecological niche modelling, landscape genetics and model-based inference to assess the genetic, geographic and demographic impacts of past and recent environmental changes. We show that mountain range isolation and historic climates shaped population structure and patterns of genetic variation, but recent anthropogenic land-use change and habitat degradation are associated with a severe population decline and loss of genetic diversity. Models predict that the suitable niche of this bat has been progressively shrinking since the last glaciation period. This study highlights threats to Afroalpine and Afromontane biodiversity, squeezed to higher altitudes under climate change while losing genetic diversity and suffering population declines due to anthropogenic land-use change. We conclude that the conservation of tropical montane biodiversity requires a holistic approach, using genetic, ecological and geographic information to understand the effects of environmental changes across temporal scales and simultaneously addressing the impacts of multiple threats.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2020View details →

Database of the ODYM-RECC v2.4 model, used for the Germany case study on material efficiency and climate change mitigation

Database of the ODYM-RECC v2.4 model, used for the Germany case study on material efficiency and climate change mitigation. For the model code, see https://github.com/YaleCIE/RECC-ODYM. The model results archived here were calculated by running the ODYM-RECC scripts of commit no. cb3a388 with the data in this archive.

opencc-zeroNov 2020View details →

Data from: Dietary shifts in a group of early Eocene euarchontans (Microsyopidae) in association with climatic change

The Microsyopidae, a family of plesiadapiforms known from over 1,500 stratigraphically controlled specimens from the southern Bighorn Basin of Wyoming, span the first three million years of the early Eocene. The early Eocene is characterized by rapid fluctuations in climate during the period represented by this collection of microsyopids, making this an ideal sample to examine how climate influenced early stem primate biology, particularly dietary ecology. An evolving lineage of microsyopine microsyopids is known from before, during, and after Biohorizon A, a faunal turnover event associated with a period of localized cooling. Dental topographic analysis (DTA) quantifies functional aspects of molars such as curvature, complexity, and relief, and covaries with diet in extant taxa. Here, we use DTA to examine microsyopid dietary change over time, particularity in response to this cooling event. Our results suggest that microsyopids had molars that are functionally like extant insectivorous/ omnivorous euarchontans. The earliest occurring species in our sample, Arctodontomys wilsoni, is characterized by molars that became more like modern insectivorous euarchontans over time. During Biohorizon A, A. wilsoni is replaced by A. nuptus, which has molars that are more like those of extant omnivores with a mixed diet including fruit. After the biohorizon event, A. nuptus appears more insectivorous, as is the later occurring Microsyops angustidens, which evolves from A. nuptus. Overall, we provide potential evidence for a causal scenario where local climate change coincided with a dietary transition among microsyopids. Our results have important implications for understanding how diet and climate were prime movers for the evolution of early primates.

opencc-zeroMay 2021View details →

Data from: Combining US and Canadian forest inventories to assess habitat suitability and migration potential of 25 tree species under climate change

Aim: To evaluate current and future dynamics of 25 tree species spanning USA and Canada. Location: USA and Canada Methods: We combine, for the first time, the species compositions from relative importance derived from the USA's Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) with gridded estimates based on Canada's National Forest Inventory (NFI-kNN) ) based photo plot data to evaluate future habitats and colonization potentials for 25 tree species. Using 21 climatic variables under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, we model climatic habitat suitability (HQ) within a consensus based multi-model ensemble regression approach. A migration model is used to assess colonization likelihoods (CL) for ~100 years and combined with HQ to evaluate the various combinations of HQ+CL outcomes for the 25 species. Results: At a continental scale, many species in the conterminous USA lose suitable climatic habitat (especially under RCP 8.5) while Canada and USA's Alaska gain climate habitat. For most species, even under optimistic migration rates, only a small portion of overall future suitable habitat is projected to be naturally colonized in ~ 100 years, although considerable variation exists among species. Main conclusions: For the species examined here, habitat losses were primarily experienced along southern range limits, while habitat gains were associated with northern range limits (especially under RCP 8.5). However, for many species, southern range limits are projected to remain relatively intact, albeit with reduced habitat quality. Our models predict that only a small portion of the climatic habitat generated by climate change will be colonized naturally by the end of the current century - even with optimistic tree migration rates. However, considerable variation among species points to the need for significant management efforts, including assisted migration, for economic or ecological reasons. Our work highlights the need to employ range-wide data, evaluate colonization potentials, and enhance cross-border collaborations.

opencc-zeroJan 2021View details →

Data from: Wintering bird communities are tracking climate change faster than breeding communities

1. Global climate change is driving species' distributions towards the poles and mountain tops during both non-breeding and breeding seasons, leading to changes in the composition of natural communities. However, the degree of season differences in climate-driven community shifts has not been thoroughly investigated at large spatial scales. 2. We compared the rates of change in the community composition during both winter (non-breeding season) and summer (breeding) and their relation to temperature changes. 3. Based on continental-scale data from Europe and North America, we examined changes in bird community composition using the community temperature index (CTI) approach and compared the changes with observed regional temperature changes during 1980–2016. 4. CTI increased faster in winter than in summer. This seasonal discrepancy is probably because individuals are less site-faithful in winter, and can more readily shift their wintering sites in response to weather in comparison to the breeding season. Regional long-term changes in community composition were positively associated with regional temperature changes during both seasons, but the pattern was only significant during summer due to high annual variability in winter communities. Annual changes in community composition were positively associated with the annual temperature changes during both seasons. 5. Our results were broadly consistent across continents, suggesting some climate-driven restructuring in both European and North American avian communities. Because community composition has changed much faster during the winter than during the breeding season, it is important to increase our knowledge about climate-driven impacts during the less-studied non-breeding season.

opencc-zeroJan 2021View details →

Diversity and phylogenetic community structure across elevation during climate change in a family of hyperdiverse neotropical beetles (Staphylinidae)

Environmental stress from abiotic conditions imposes physiological limits on individuals within communities, and these stressful conditions can act as a filter on the species present in any given environment. Such abiotic stressors can reduce a community's diversity and make its composition more phylogenetically clustered. Using a decade of staphylinid beetle (Staphylinidae, Coleoptera, rove beetles) collections made across a 1,500 m elevation gradient in northwestern Costa Rica (2008-2017) we asked what species lived there, how large and overlapping were the communities across this gradient, and what relationship was there between elevation and diversity. Using DNA barcodes for identification and phylogenetic estimates of community structure, we found high turnover across elevation, and that staphylinid diversity increased linearly with elevation. Because of this, we found staphylinid diversity was negatively related to surface area and temperature, and positively with precipitation. We suggest that historical biogeography and contemporary environmental stress have combined to produce these observed patterns. The forests in which these beetles are found are heating and drying rapidly and our finding that diversity increases with elevation suggests that there will be catastrophic biodiversity loss in the coming decades.

opencc-zeroJan 2021View details →

Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change

Effects of climate change are particularly important in the Mediterranean Biodiversity hotspot where rising temperatures and drought are negatively affecting several plant taxa, including endemic species. Assisted Colonisation (AC) represents a useful tool for reducing the effect of climate change on endemic plant species threatened by climate change. We combined SDMs for 188 taxa endemic to Italy with the IUCN red listing range loss threshold under criterion A (30%) to define: a) the number of AC (measured as 2×2 km grid cells that should be occupied by new populations, that is grid cells = new populations) required to fully compensate for predicted range loss and to halt the decline below the 30% of range loss; b) The number of cells necessary to compensate for range loss was calculated as the number of currently occupied cells lost under future climate due to unsuitable conditions. We used two Representative Concentration Pathways, +2.6 and +8.5 W/m2, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Availability of suitable areas for AC was also assessed within the current species distribution and within protected areas. Under the optimistic scenario, no taxa would lose more than 30% of their range and AC would not be required. Under the pessimistic scenario, roughly 90% of taxa showed a cell loss higher than 30%. Eight taxa were predicted to lose >95% of their range. For these species, AC was required from 13 to 16 new populations (= 13 to 16 grid cells) per taxon to cap the range loss at 30%. For currently VU or EN species, an average number of 32 to 35 AC attempts would be necessary to fully compensate for their range loss under a pessimistic scenario. Suitable recipient sites within protected areas falling in their projected range were identified, allowing for short-distance AC. Synthesis. Combining SDMs and red listing thresholds under Criterion A has enabled the strategic planning of multiple-species AC minimising the effort in terms of new populations to be created and maximising the conservation benefit in terms of range loss compensation.