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511 results for “climate effects”
Grazing and climate change have site-dependent interactive effects on vegetation in Asian montane rangelands
<p>1. Climate over Asian montane rangelands is changing faster than the global average, posing serious threats to the future of the region's livestock-based economies and cultures. Effects of climate change on rangeland vegetation likely depend on grazing by herbivores but the potential responses of vegetation to such changes in climate and grazing regimes remains unclear.</p> <p>2. We examined vegetation responses to experimentally simulated climate change (warming, drought and increased rainfall) and grazing (clipping vegetation) between 2015-2018 at two mountain rangeland sites: Spiti valley, in the Indian Trans-Himalaya and Tost, in the Gobi-Altai Mountains in Mongolia.</p> <p>3. Clipping and climate change manipulations interactively reduced vegetation cover and biomass but did not affect species richness. Treatment effects and their interactions varied between sites. In ungrazed plots, vegetation cover and biomass declined sharply in response to warming (18-35%) and drought (20-50%) at the two sites, and, surprisingly also declined slightly in response to increased rainfall (20%) at Tost. While the effects of climate treatments were largely similar in the grazed and ungrazed plots in Tost, they were larger in the ungrazed plots in Spiti. The decline in vegetation cover was driven by a decline in the cover of both forbs and grasses.</p> <p>4. In combination, grazing and warming (Tost) or drought (Spiti) had sub-additive effects, i.e., the decrease in vegetation cover in response to grazing and warming/drought was less than the sum of their independent effects but greater than the effect of either manipulation alone. Of the two, warming had a greater effect than drought at the more arid site (Tost), while drought had a larger effect at the more mesic site (Spiti). <i>Synthesis and applications. </i>Our findings show that<i> </i>future changes in climate, including just over 1<sup>o</sup>C of warming, could undermine the sustainability of pastoral economies and the persistence of wildlife across Asian montane rangelands. Further, grazing by herbivores will play an important role in mediating rangeland responses to climate change; thus, pasture management in concert with local pastoralists will be crucial in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on rangelands, pastoral livelihoods and wildlife populations.</p>
Data from: Climate warming prolongs the time interval between leaf-out and flowering in temperate trees: effects of chilling, forcing and photoperiod
<p><span>1. Leaf-out and flowering are two key phenological events of plants, denoting the respective onsets of visible vegetative growth and reproduction during the year. For each species, the schedule of vegetative growth and reproduction is crucial to the maximization of its fitness. Warming-induced advances of leaf-out and flowering have been reported frequently, however, it is unclear whether the responses of the two events are equal for any given species. </span></p> <p><span>2. Using long-term phenological records in Europe, we examined simultaneously the responses of both leaf-out and flowering of four common temperate tree species to climate warming and further examined the effects of winter chilling, spring forcing and photoperiod on the responses of the two events. </span></p> <p><span>3. We found that regardless whether flowering or leaf-out occurred first, the first event advanced more than the second during 1950 – 2013, resulting in a prolonged time interval between the two events. The temporal changes were also supported by a similar geographical trend that the time interval between the two events increased from cold to warm sites. Due to the warming-induced reduction in chilling, the spring forcing accumulated until the second event was increased more than the forcing accumulated until the first event, and that reduced the temperature sensitivity of the second event. In addition to the effect of chilling, the shorter photoperiod, associated with the advanced spring phenology, was also likely to substantially increase the spring forcing accumulated until the second event, which thus slowed down its advance, compared to the advance of the first event. The relative contributions of chilling and photoperiod to the increased forcing varied between species and events, with chilling mostly outweighing photoperiod. </span></p> <p><span>4. Synthesis. This study provides the large-scale empirical evidence of prolonged time interval between leaf-out and flowering with climate warming. The unequal advances of the two events may alter the partition of resources between vegetative growth and reproduction and cause different changes of spring frost damage to vegetative and reproductive tissues, which may alter species fitness and further affect ecosystem structure and function.</span></p>
Data and GrADS scripts for "Effect of atmospheric circulation on surface air temperature trends in years 1979-2018" (forthcoming in Climate Dynamics)
<p>Data and GrADS scripts associated with "Effect of atmospheric circulation on surface air temperature trends in years 1979-2018", forthcoming in Climate Dynamics.</p> <p>The README file, the scripts and the GrADS data descriptor files are in the file "circulation.zip". Unpacking this with "unzip circulation.zip" creates the directory "circulation" together with the individual files.</p> <p>The three netcdf data files (T_anomalies_ERA5_1979-2018.nc, T_anomalies_circ_1979-2018.nc and T_trends_CMIP5_42mod_1979-2018.nc) must be downloaded to the same "circulation" directory for the GrADS scripts to work.</p> <p>See the README file within "circulation.zip" for further information.</p> <p> </p>
Cascading effects of climate change on plankton community structure
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>Plankton communities account for at least half of global primary production and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Warming and acidification may alter the interaction chains in these communities from the bottom and top of the food web. Yet, the relative importance of these potentially complex interactions has not yet been quantified. Here we examine the isolated and combined effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in phytoplankton and predator abundances in a series of factorial experiments. We find that warming directly impacts the top of the food web, but that the intermediate trophic groups are more strongly influenced by indirect effects mediated by altered top-down interactions. Direct manipulations of predator and phytoplankton abundance reveal similar strong top-down interactions following top predator decline. A meta-analysis of published experiments further support the conclusion that warming has stronger direct impacts on the top and bottom of the food web rather than the intermediate trophic groups, with important differences between freshwater and marine plankton communities. Our results reveal that the trophic effect of warming cascading down from the top of the plankton food web is a powerful agent of global change.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
Output data from: From land productivity trends to land degradation assessment in Mozambique: Effects of climate, human activities and stakeholder definitions
<p>This repository includes output data from the following article:</p> <p><strong>Montfort, F., Bégué, A., Leroux, L., Blanc, L., Gond, V., Cambule, A.H., Remane, I.A.D., Grinand, C., 2020. From land productivity trends to land degradation assessment in Mozambique: Effects of climate, human activities and stakeholder definitions. <em>Land Degrad Dev</em>.; 32: 49– 65. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3704">https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3704</a></strong></p> <p>This study aimed at characterizing and mapping the underlying factors (human or climatic) in land productivity changes over the 2000-2016 period, in order to assess land degradation in Mozambique.</p> <p>The methodology is based on remote sensing methodology. Land productivity change were first analyzed using MODIS NDVI time-series (2000–2016), and a two-step framework was then used to understand the main factors of these productivity changes, using climate times series (CHIRPS data for rainfall and CRU data for temperature), Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) maps (Laurel project LULCC map), and ground knowledge.</p> <p>This repository includes raster data of annual land productivity change over the 2000-2016 period, annual land productivity climate factors, potential land productivity decrease factors and potential productivity increase factors. Data are available as GeoTIFF raster files at 250 m resolution in the UTM 37S projection (EPSG: 32737).</p>
Data from: Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics
Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.
Data from: Disease and climate effects on individuals drive post-reintroduction population dynamics of an endangered amphibian
The emergence of novel pathogens often has dramatic negative effects on previously unexposed host populations. Subsequent disease can drive populations and even species to extinction. After establishment in populations, pathogens can continue to affect host dynamics, influencing the success or failure of species recovery efforts. However, quantifying the effect of pathogens on host populations in the wild is challenging because individual hosts and their pathogens are difficult to observe. Here we use long-term mark-recapture data to describe the dynamics of reintroduced populations of an endangered amphibian (Rana sierrae) and evaluate the success of these recovery efforts in the presence of a recently-emerged pathogen, the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. We find that high B. dendrobatidis infection intensities are associated with increases in frog detectability and reductions in survival. When average infection intensities are high, adults are more likely to gain infections and less likely to lose infections. We also find evidence for intensity-dependent survival, with heavily infected individuals suffering higher mortality. These results highlight the need in disease ecology for probabilistic approaches that account for uncertainty in infection intensity using imperfect observational data. Such approaches can advance the understanding of disease impacts on host population dynamics, and in the current study will improve the effectiveness of species conservation actions.
Data from: Climatic variation modulates the indirect effects of large herbivores on small-mammal habitat use
Large mammalian herbivores (LMH) strongly shape the composition and architecture of plant communities. A growing literature shows that negative direct effects of LMH on vegetation frequently propagate to suppress the abundance of smaller consumers. Indirect effects of LMH on the behaviour of these consumers, however, have received comparatively little attention despite their potential ecological significance. We sought to understand (i) how LMH indirectly shape small-mammal habitat use by altering the density and distribution of understorey plants; (ii) how these effects vary with climatic context (here, seasonality in rainfall); and (iii) the extent to which behavioural responses of small mammals are contingent upon small-mammal density. We tested the effects of a diverse LMH community on small-mammal habitat use using 4 years of spatially explicit small-mammal trapping and vegetation data from the UHURU Experiment, a replicated set of LMH exclosures in semi-arid Kenyan savanna. Small-mammal habitat use was positively associated with tree density and negatively associated with bare (unvegetated) patches in all plots and seasons. In the presence of LMH, and especially during the dry season, small mammals consistently selected tree cover and avoided bare patches. In contrast, when LMH were excluded, small mammals were weakly associated with tree cover and did not avoid bare patches as strongly. These behavioural responses of small mammals were largely unaffected by changes in small-mammal density associated with LMH exclusion. Our results show that LMH indirectly affect small-mammal behaviour, and that these effects are influenced by climate and can arise via density-independent mechanisms. This raises the possibility that anthropogenic LMH declines might interact with changing patterns of rainfall to alter small-mammal distribution and behaviour, independent of numerical responses by small mammals to these perturbations. For example, increased rainfall in East Africa (as predicted in many recent climate-model simulations) may relax constraints on small-mammal distribution where LMH are rare or absent, whereas increased aridity and/or drought frequency may tighten them.
Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests
<p>48-year modelled dataset of below canopy fuel moisture content (FMC) for field sites established in wet temperate eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia (allsites.csv). Raw hourly data for input to the model (hrlyallsitesgit.csv). </p>
Data from: Climatic effects on the synchrony and stability of temperate headwater invertebrates over four decades
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Important clues about the ecological effects of climate change can arise from understanding the influence of other Earth-system processes on ecosystem dynamics but few studies span the inter-decadal timescales required. We, therefore, examined how variation in annual weather patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over four decades was linked to synchrony and stability in a metacommunity of stream invertebrates across multiple, contrasting headwaters in central Wales (UK).</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Prolonged warmer and wetter conditions during positive NAO winters appeared to synchronise variations in population and community composition among and within streams thereby reducing stability across levels of ecological organisation. This climatically-mediated synchronisation occurred in all streams irrespective of acid-base status and land use, but was weaker where invertebrate communities were more functionally diverse. Wavelet linear models indicated that variation in the NAO explained up to 50% of overall synchrony in species abundances at a timescale of<span> 4-6 years. The NAO </span>appeared to affect ecological dynamics through local variations in temperature, precipitation and discharge, but increasing hydrochemical variability across sites during wetter winters might have contributed. </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Our findings illustrate how large-scale climatic fluctuations generated over the North Atlantic can affect population persistence and dynamics in inland freshwater ecosystems in ways that transcend local catchment character. Protecting and restoring functional diversity in stream communities might increase their stability against warmer, wetter conditions that are analogues of ongoing climate change. Catchment management could also dampen impacts and provide options for climate change adaptation.</span></p>
Data for: The Clam Before the Storm: A Meta Analysis Showing the Effect of Combined Climate Change Stressors on Bivalves
<p>These data were used to conduct a meta-analysis (as descirbed in the pre-print; The Clam Before the Storm: A Meta Analysis Showing the Effect of Combined Climate Change Stressors on Bivalves). These data can be used to reproduce our analysis.</p>
The effect of climate change on forest fire danger and severity in the Canadian boreal forests for the period 1976-2100
<p>There are 5 files uploaded.</p><p> </p><p>(1) fwi26.txt.gz, RCP26</p><p>(2) fwi45.txt.gz, RCP45</p><p>(3) fwi85.txt.gz, RCP85</p><p>(4) msk20231028.txt</p><p>(5) Shape_Canadian_Boreal_Forests.7z</p><p> </p><p>mask20231028.txt is an ascii file covering the Canadian Boreal Forests.</p><p>This file can be imported into GisMAP to generate a mask raster.</p><p> </p><p>Shape_Canadian_Boreal_Forests.7z is a compressed shape file cover the</p><p>Canadian Boreal Forests.</p><p> </p><p>fwi26.txt.gz, fwi45.txt.gz, and fwi85.txt.gz are the zipped file of FFMC</p><p>and DSR daily surfaces. There are 6 fields in the files:</p><p> </p><p>Field 1: row number in the mask file of mask20231028.txt.</p><p>Field 2: column number.</p><p>Field 3: Years; 1, 2, 3, ... 95 correspoind to 2006, 2007, 2008, ..., 2100.</p><p>Field 4: Days; 1, 2, 3, ..., 365 in a year.</p><p>Field 5: Daily FFMC values.</p><p>Field 6: Daily DSR values. </p>
Evaluating Effects of Climate Change, Restoration Scenarios, and Hatchery Effects on Chinook Salmon in the Stillaguamish River Basin with the HARP Model
<p>Model code (R) to accompany the 2023 NOAA report "<strong>Evaluating Effects of Climate Change, Restoration Scenarios, and Hatchery Effects on Chinook Salmon in the Stillaguamish River Basin with the HARP Model</strong>"</p>
Community-science reveals delayed fall migration of waterfowl and spatiotemporal effects of a changing climate
<p>Climate change has well-documented, yet variable, influences on the annual movements of migratory birds. The effects of climate change on fall migration remains understudied compared to spring, but appears to be less consistent among species, regions, and years. Changes in the pattern and timing of waterfowl migration in particular may result in cascading effects on ecosystem function, and socioeconomic and cultural outcomes. We investigated changes in the migration of 15 waterfowl species along a major flyway corridor of continental importance in northeastern North America using 43 years of community-science data. We built spatially- and temporally-explicit hierarchical generative additive models for each species and demonstrated that climate, specifically the interaction between minimum temperature and precipitation, significantly influences migration phenology for most species. Certain species' migratory movements responded to specific temperature thresholds (climate migrants) and others reacted more to the interaction of temperature and precipitation (extreme event migrants). There are already significant changes in the fall migration phenology of common waterfowl species with high ecological and economic importance, which may simply increase in the context of a changing climate. If not addressed, climate change could induce mismatches in management, regulations, and population surveys which would negatively impact the hunting industry. Our findings highlight the importance of considering species-specific spatiotemporal scales of effect on climate on migration and our methods can be widely adapted to quantify and forecast climate-driven changes in wildlife migration.</p>
Data from: Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity
<p>The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) – key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO<sub>2</sub> forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades, and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections.</p>
Body size and trophic levels explain global asymmetric response of tetrapod diversity to climate effects
<p><span>Although c</span><span>limate-based hypotheses are widely used to explain large-scale diversity patterns, they fall short of explaining the spatial variation among taxonomic groups. Integrating food web and metabolic theories into macroecology is a promising step forward, as they allow including explicit taxon-specific traits that can potentially mediate the relationship between climate and diversity. Our investigation focuses on the role of body size and trophic structure in mediating the influence of contemporary climate and historical climate change on global tetrapods species richness. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to assess the direct effects of contemporary climate and climate instability of species richness and the indirect effects of climate on tetrapod richness mediated by community-wide species traits. We found that birds and mammals are less sensitive to the direct effect of contemporary climate than amphibians and squamates. Contemporary climate and climate instability favored the species richness in mammals and amphibians. However, for birds and squamates, this link is only associated with contemporary climate. Moreover, we demonstrated that community-wide traits favored the species richness gradients of tetrapod groups, except amphibians, but this link depends on traits and taxonomic groups. Specifically, bird communities with smaller bodies and bottom-heavy structures support higher species richness. Squamates also tend to be more diverse in communities with prevalence of smaller bodies, while mammals are correlated with top-heavy structures. Moreover, we show that higher contemporary climate and climate instability reduce the species richness of birds and mammals through community-wide traits and tend indirectly improve squamate species richness. Thus, we showed the significance of body size and trophic structure effect in driving a global asymmetric response of tetrapod diversity to climate effects highlights the limitations of applying "typical" climate-based hypotheses. Furthermore, by combining multiple theories, our research contributes to a more realistic and mechanistic understanding of diversity patterns across taxonomic groups. </span></p>
Data from: a positive feedback to climate change: the effect of temperature on the respiration of key wood-decomposing fungi does not decline with time
<p>Heterotrophic soil microorganisms are responsible for ~50% of the carbon dioxide released by respiration from the terrestrial biosphere each year. The respiratory response of soil microbial communities to warming, and the control mechanisms, remains uncertain, yet is critical to understanding the future land carbon (C)-climate feedback. Individuals of nine species of fungi decomposing wood were exposed to 90 days of cooling to evaluate the medium-term effect of temperature on respiration. Overall, the effect of temperature on respiration increased in the medium term, with no evidence of compensation. However, the increasing effect of temperature on respiration was lost after correcting for changes in biomass. These results indicate that C loss through respiration of wood-decomposing fungi will increase beyond the direct effects of temperature on respiration, potentially promoting greater C losses from terrestrial ecosystems and a positive feedback to climate change.</p>
Impact of host climate model on contrail cirrus effective radiative forcing estimates
<p>Data to reproduce the figures in the article 'Impact of host climate model on contrail cirrus effective radiative forcing estimates'.</p>
Climate model (CM2.6) and regional model (ACM) processed output used to investigate the physical drivers and biogeochemical effects of the weakening of the northwest North Atlantic Shelfbreak Jet (Garcia-Suarez & Fennel., 2024; JAMES)
<p>Key processed output from the climate model GFDL CM2.6 and the regional Atlantic Canada model (ACM) used to investigate the physical drivers and the biogeochemical effects of the weakening of the shelfbreak jet in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean. The dataset includes all model variables required to reproduce the key results in <em>Garcia-Suarez & Fennel (2024, JAMES)</em>. See <em>GarciaSuarezandFennel_JAMES_CM26_ACM_data_README_v2.txt</em> for more details.</p>
Mid-Late Holocene coral calcification dynamics: Deciphering climatic and environmental effects
<p><span>Over the past four decades, a marked decrease in coral calcification has occurred across the world's tropical reefs, closely linked to climate change and human-activity impacts. However, how natural and human-induced factors influence coral calcification remains unclear due to limited understanding of the geological past. This study addresses this gap by investigating the calcification parameters of 82 <em>Porites</em> corals from the northern South China Sea, with growth periods covering distinct climatic epochs during the Mid-Late Holocene, including the Holocene Climate Optimum, 4.2 ka BP event, Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period. Our findings show a gradual increase in coral skeletal density towards the present, and varied linear extension and calcification rates between warm and cold phases and between pre- and post-industrial periods. This suggests that temperature plays a pivotal role in controlling coral calcification, with contingent influences from volcanic activity and solar radiation. Notably, the linear extension and calcification rates were significantly reduced during the Current Warm Period, suggesting a surpassing impact of contemporary human activities over the natural variability on coral calcification. This raises concerns about the future prospects of coral reefs in the face of ongoing climate change and increasing human-activity impacts.</span></p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.