Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds

Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.

Data from: Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning.

Data from: Interactive effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning

Climate change and biodiversity loss are expected to simultaneously affect ecosystems, however research on how each driver mediates the effect of the other has been limited in scope. The multiple stressor framework emphasizes non-additive effects, but biodiversity may also buffer the effects of climate change, and climate change may alter which mechanisms underlie biodiversity-function relationships. Here, we performed an experiment using tank bromeliad ecosystems to test the various ways that rainfall changes and litter diversity may jointly determine ecological processes. Litter diversity and rainfall changes interactively affected multiple functions, but how depended on the process measured. High litter diversity buffered the effects of altered rainfall on detritivore communities, evidence of insurance against impacts of climate change. Altered rainfall affected the mechanisms by which litter diversity influenced decomposition, reducing the importance of complementary attributes of species ("complementarity effects"), and resulting in an increasing dependence on the maintenance of specific species ("dominance effects"). Finally, altered rainfall conditions prevented litter diversity from fuelling methanogenesis, because such changes in rainfall reduced microbial activity by 58%. Together, these results demonstrate that the effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystems cannot be understood in isolation and interactions between these stressors can be multifaceted.

Data from: Geological and climatic changes in quaternary shaped the evolutionary history of Calibrachoa heterophylla, an endemic South-Atlantic species of petunia

Background: The glacial and interglacial cycles that characterized the Quaternary greatly affected the distribution and genetic diversity of plants. In the Neotropics, few phylogeographic studies have focused on coastal species outside of the Atlantic Rainforest. Climatic and sea level changes during the Quaternary played an important role in the evolutionary history of many organisms found in coastal regions. To contribute to a better understanding of plant evolution in this environment in Southern South America, we focused on Calibrachoa heterophylla (Solanaceae), an endemic and vulnerable wild petunia species from the South Atlantic Coastal Plain (SACP). Results: We assessed DNA sequences from two cpDNA intergenic spacers and analyzed them using a phylogeographic approach. The present phylogeographic study reveals the influence of complex geologic and climatic events on patterns of genetic diversification. The results indicate that C. heterophylla originated inland and subsequently colonized the SACP; the data show that the inland haplogroup is more ancient than the coastal one and that the inland was not affected by sea level changes in the Quaternary. The major diversification of C. heterophylla that occurred after 0.4 Myr was linked to sea level oscillations in the Quaternary, and any diversification that occurred before this time was obscured by marine transgressions that occurred before the coastal sand barrier's formation. Results of the Bayesian skyline plot showed a recent population expansion detected in C. heterophylla seems to be related to an increase in temperature and humidity that occurred at the beginning of the Holocene. Conclusions: The geographic clades have been formed when the coastal plain was deeply dissected by paleochannels and these correlate very well with the distributional limits of the clades. The four major sea transgressions formed a series of four sand barriers parallel to the coast that progressively increased the availability of coastal areas after the regressions and that may have promoted the geographic structuring of genetic diversity observed today. The recent population expansion for the entire species may be linked with the event of marine regression after the most recent sea transgression at ~5 kya.

Data from: Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Evolution in the sabertooth cat, Smilodon fatalis, in response to Pleistocene climate change

The late Pleistocene was a time of environmental change, culminating in an extinction event. Few fossil localities record a temporal series of carnivore fossil populations from this interesting interval as well as Rancho La Brea (RLB). We analyzed mandibles of Smilodon fatalis from RLB using 2D geometric morphometrics to examine if, and how, mandibular shape changes through time. S. fatalis shows mandibular evolution with oscillations between a small, ancestral-type morph in pits 77 (≈37 Kybp) and 2051 (≈26 Kybp), a larger, more derived morph in pits 91 (≈28 Kybp) and 61-67 (≈13.6 Kybp), and an intermediate morph from pit 13 (≈17.7 Kybp). These oscillations end in pit 61-67, where Smilodon exhibits its greatest body size, widest gape, and lowest bite forces. Additionally, variation is lowest in pit 61-67, which was deposited concurrent with the Bølling-Allerød warming event, which may have important implications for the timing or conditions during the extinction event. Contra to a temporal Bergmann's rule, such rapid warming events appear to be correlated with larger, derived, morphologies while static, cooler, climates correlate with gracile, ancestral morphologies.

Data from: Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate-based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large-scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.

Data from: Postglacial climate and fire-mediated vegetation change on the western Olympic Peninsula, Washington

The mode and tempo of forest compositional change during periods of rapid climate change, including the potential for the fire regime to produce non-linear relationships between climate and vegetation, is a long-standing theme of forest ecological research. In the old conifer forests of the coastal Pacific Northwest, fire disturbances are sufficiently rare that their relation to climate and their ecological effects are poorly understood. We used a 14,700-year high-resolution sediment record from Yahoo Lake on the Olympic Peninsula to examine vegetation (landscape vegetation from pollen and local vegetation from macrofossils) and fire (landscape fire from total charcoal and local fire from charcoal peaks) in conjunction with independent records of climate. We hypothesized that the successional stage of the local forest will exhibit alternate stable states over a range of fire activity, that species turnover will increase abruptly above a certain level of fire activity and that both responses would be more gradual at the landscape scale than the local scale. Supporting these hypotheses, at the local scale we found strong evidence for alternate stable states of late vs. early successional communities and inertia of species turnover to changing fire activity. At the landscape scale, vegetation responded more gradually to changing fire activity. From 14,700 to 7000 years ago, high landscape vegetation turnover occurred along with high landscape fire activity, especially during the warm summers of the early Holocene. In several instances local species turned over completely following fire events but several centuries after climate change. In contrast, during the last 7000 years the local forest composition was dominated by late-successional species with little species turnover despite periods of moderate fire activity. We suggest that the relatively minor climate fluctuations of the past 7000 years were not sufficient to cause large-scale species turnover after fire. The Yahoo Lake fire and vegetation record of the early Holocene provides a model for dramatic ecosystem change following an anticipated shift to warmer summer temperatures.

Data from: Reconstructing changes in the genotype, phenotype, and climatic niche of an introduced species

An introduced species must contend with enormous environmental variation in its introduced range. In this study, we use niche models and ordination analyses to reconstruct changes in genotype, phenotype, and climatic niche of Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense), which is regarded as one of the world's most threatening invasive plants. In the United States, Johnsongrass has rapidly evolved within- and among-population genetic diversity; our results show that genetic differentiation in expanding Johnsongrass populations has resulted in phenotypic variation that is consistent with habitat and climatic variation encountered during its expansion. Moreover, Johnsongrass expanded from agricultural to non-agricultural habitat, and now, despite occupying overlapping ranges, extant agricultural and non-agricultural populations are genetically and phenotypically distinct and manifest different plastic responses when encountering environmental variation. Non-agricultural accessions are broadly distributed in climatic and geographic space and their fitness traits demonstrate plastic responses to common garden conditions that are consistent with local specialization. In contrast, agricultural accessions demonstrate "general purpose" plastic responses and have more restricted climatic niches and geographic distributions. They also grow much larger than non-agricultural accessions. If these differences are adaptive, our results suggest that adaptation to local habitat variation plays a crucial role in the ecology of this invader. Further, its success relates to its ability to succeed on dual fronts, by responding simultaneously to habitat and climate variability and by capitalizing on differential responses to these factors during its range expansion.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Shifts in hatch dates do not provide pied flycatchers with a rapid ontogenetic route to adjust offspring time schedules to climate change

1. Environments change rapidly, and it is unclear whether organisms with complex life-styles, such as avian migrants, are able to adjust sufficiently. For understanding human impacts on ecosystem functioning, it is crucial to understand how well, and by which mechanisms species are able to adapt. 2. To improve the understanding of migrants' ability to adjust their annual timing to climate change, we investigated ontogenetic hatch date effects on adult spring migration timing and female egg laying dates. We experimentally delayed hatch dates of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca by one week in three breeding seasons by delaying incubation onset. We investigate if natural and experimental (shifts in) hatch date affected timing of recruiting individuals up to at least three years after the manipulation. 3. Spring arrival dates were positively correlated to natural variation in hatch dates in three of the five years considered, but no such effects were found in egg laying. Experiments showed that delayed hatching resulted in delayed arrival and laying only in one-year old and not in older birds. These effects were mostly observed during one of the study years. 4. The discrepancy between experimental and natural hatch date effects indicate that a causal hatch date effect is not generally responsible for the correlation between hatch date and timing during adulthood. Instead, we propose that natural hatch date effects on spring arrival arise from genetic variation in migration schedules, while delays in hatching induced carry-over effects on arrival and laying dates in offspring (e.g. the experimental effect in 2010). Strong support for year-specific expression of hatch date and delay effects on time schedules imply that trait-variation can be easily obscured. The latter may explain the lack of hatch date effects on female egg laying. 5. Our results imply that plasticity in breeding phenology does not provide pied flycatchers with a non-genetic inheritance route to rapidly advance annual cycles. Instead, plasticity may rather masks (genetic) trait-variation for selection to act on, and thereby slow down micro-evolutionary adaptation to changing environments.

zenodo32/100

Nunataryuk Session "Indigenous Peoples, science and climate change in the Arctic: lessons learned and a way forward" at ICASS X

<p>Permafrost coasts in the whole Arctic represent 34% of the world's coasts (Lantuit et al., 2012) and a key interface for human-environmental interactions. These coasts provide essential ecosystem services, exhibit high biodiversity and productivity, and support indigenous lifestyles. At the same time, this coastal zone is a dynamic and vulnerable zone of expanding infrastructure investment and growing health concerns. Climate change is affecting this fragile environment by triggering coastal landscape instability and increased hazard exposure (Forbes et al., 2011). Permafrost thaw in combination with increasing sea level and changing sea-ice cover expose the Arctic coastal and nearshore areas to rapid changes (Fritz et al. 2017). Since 2017, scientists from the Nunataryuk Project are working in cooperation with local communities in order to identify the impacts of thawing land, coast and subsea permafrost on the global climate and on humans in the Arctic and to develop targeted and co-designed adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p>

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2021View details →

Data from: Functional mismatch in a bumble bee pollination mutualism under climate change

Ecological partnerships, or mutualisms, are globally widespread, sustaining agriculture and biodiversity. Mutualisms evolve through the matching of functional traits between partners, such as tongue length of pollinators and flower tube depth of plants. Long-tongued pollinators specialize on flowers with deep corolla tubes, whereas shorter-tongued pollinators generalize across tube lengths. Losses of functional guilds because of shifts in global climate may disrupt mutualisms and threaten partner species. We found that in two alpine bumble bee species, decreases in tongue length have evolved over 40 years. Co-occurring flowers have not become shallower, nor are small-flowered plants more prolific. We argue that declining floral resources because of warmer summers have favored generalist foraging, leading to a mismatch between shorter-tongued bees and the longer-tubed plants they once pollinated.

Data from: Effects of Pleistocene climate change on genetic structure and diversity of Shorea macrophylla in Kalimantan rainforest

The island of Borneo is the diversity center of the Dipterocarpaceae, the most important family of tropical rainforest trees in Southeast Asia. However, changes in land use and climate have affected dipterocarp distributions on the island, raising concerns about the vulnerability (inter alia) of the endemic riparian species Shorea macrophylla. Thus, to aid conservation efforts we have investigated the genetic diversity, structure and demographic history of S. macrophylla. The species' genetic diversity and structure in Kalimantan (part of Indonesia, covering 75% of the island) was explored by examining genotypes of 377 individuals representing 13 populations in three regions (Northeast, Central and West Kalimantan) using 14 newly developed microsatellite loci. Higher genetic diversity was found, at all loci, in samples from Northeast Kalimantan than in samples from the other regions. Moderate genetic differentiation between populations was detected (FST: 0.093). Bayesian clustering, principal coordinate, and neighbor joining tree analysis of the population structure consistently identified two genetically distinct groups, one in the Northeast and the other in the Central and West regions. The higher diversity of the diverged populations in Northeast Kalimantan indicates that the region may have hosted rainforest refugia during the ice age. Accordingly, analysis using DIY ABC software indicated that the Northeast and Central-West Kalimantan groups diverged 194 000 years ago. We conclude that global climate change during the Pleistocene strongly influenced the genetic diversity and structure of S. macrophylla populations in Kalimantan.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change

Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species-specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Ecological disturbance influences adaptive divergence despite high gene flow in golden perch (Macquaria ambigua): implications for management and resilience to climate change

Populations that are adaptively divergent but maintain high gene flow may have greater resilience to environmental change as gene flow allows the spread of alleles that have already been tested elsewhere. In addition, populations naturally subjected to ecological disturbance may already hold resilience to future environmental change. Confirming this necessitates ecological genomic studies of high dispersal, generalist species. Here we perform one such study on golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia using a genome-wide SNP dataset. The MDB spans across arid to wet and temperate to sub-tropical environments, with low to high ecological disturbance in the form of low to high hydrological variability. We found high gene flow across the basin and three populations with low neutral differentiation. Genotype-environment association analyses detected adaptive divergence predominantly linked to an arid region with highly variable riverine flow, and candidate loci included functions related to fat storage, stress and molecular or tissue repair. The high connectivity of golden perch in the MDB will likely allow locally adaptive traits in its most arid and hydrologically variable environment to spread and be selected in localities that are predicted to become arid and hydrologically variable in future climates. High connectivity in golden perch is likely due to their generalist life history and efforts of fisheries management. Our study adds to growing evidence of adaptation in the face of gene flow, and highlights the importance of considering ecological disturbance and adaptive divergence in biodiversity management.

Data from: Climate change and the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) population in Baja California, Mexico

The Earth′s climate is warming, especially in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) breeds and haul-outs on islands and the mainland of Baja California, Mexico, and California, U.S.A. At the beginning of the 21st century, numbers of elephant seals in California are increasing, but the status of Baja California populations is unknown, and some data suggest they may be decreasing. We hypothesize that the elephant seal population of Baja California is experiencing a decline because the animals are not migrating as far south due to warming sea and air temperatures. Here we assessed population trends of the Baja California population, and climate change in the region. The numbers of northern elephant seals in Baja California colonies have been decreasing since the 1990s, and both the surface waters off Baja California and the local air temperatures have warmed during the last three decades. We propose that declining population sizes may be attributable to decreased migration towards the southern portions of the range in response to the observed temperature increases. Further research is needed to confirm our hypothesis; however, if true, it would imply that elephant seal colonies of Baja California and California are not demographically isolated which would pose challenges to environmental and management policies between Mexico and the United States.

Data from: Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source–sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20–800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source–sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source–sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Data from: Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests

About one third of North America is forested. These forests are of incalculable value to human society in terms of harvested resources and ecosystem services and are sensitive to disturbance regimes. Epidemics of forest insects and diseases are the dominant sources of disturbance to North American forests. Here we review current understanding of climatic effects on the abundance of forest insects and diseases in North America, and of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of biotic disturbances. We identify 27 insects (6 nonindigenous) and 22 diseases (9 nonindigenous) that are notable agents of disturbance in North American forests. The distribution and abundance of forest insects and pathogens respond rapidly to climatic variation due to their physiological sensitivity to temperature, high mobility, short generation times, and high reproductive potential. Additionally, climate affects tree defenses, tree tolerance, and community interactions involving enemies, competitors, and mutualists of insects and diseases. Recent research affirms the importance of milder winters, warmer growing seasons, and changes in moisture availability to the occurrence of biotic disturbances. Predictions from the first US National Climate Assessment of expansions in forest disturbances from climate change have been upheld - in some cases more rapidly and dramatically than expected. Clear examples are offered by recent epidemics of spruce beetles in Alaska, mountain pine beetle in high-elevation five-needle pine forests of the Rocky Mountains, and southern pine beetle in the New Jersey Pinelands. Pathogens are less studied with respect to climate but some are facilitated by warmer and wetter summer conditions. Changes in biotic disturbances have broad consequences for forest ecosystems and the services they provide to society. Climatic effects on forest insect and disease outbreaks may foster further changes in climate by influencing the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between forests and the atmosphere. Climate-induced changes in forest productivity and disturbance create opportunities as well as vulnerabilities (e.g., increases in productivity in many areas, and probably decreases in disturbance risks in some areas). There is a critical need to better understand and predict the interactions among climate, forest productivity, forest disturbance, and the socioeconomic relations between forests and people.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change

Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat have generally assumed uniform air–water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air–water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA, 78 sites in nine watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air–water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air–water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.

Data from: Genomic basis for coral resilience to climate change

Recent advances in DNA-sequencing technologies now allow for in-depth characterization of the genomic stress responses of many organisms beyond model taxa. They are especially appropriate for organisms such as reef-building corals, for which dramatic declines in abundance are expected to worsen as anthropogenic climate change intensifies. Different corals differ substantially in physiological resilience to environmental stress, but the molecular mechanisms behind enhanced coral resilience remain unclear. Here, we compare transcriptome-wide gene expression (via RNA-Seq using Illumina sequencing) among conspecific thermally sensitive and thermally resilient corals to identify the molecular pathways contributing to coral resilience. Under simulated bleaching stress, sensitive and resilient corals change expression of hundreds of genes, but the resilient corals had higher expression under control conditions across 60 of these genes. These "frontloaded" transcripts were less up-regulated in resilient corals during heat stress and included thermal tolerance genes such as heat shock proteins and antioxidant enzymes, as well as a broad array of genes involved in apoptosis regulation, tumor suppression, innate immune response, and cell adhesion. We propose that constitutive frontloading enables an individual to maintain physiological resilience during frequently encountered environmental stress, an idea that has strong parallels in model systems such as yeast. Our study provides broad insight into the fundamental cellular processes responsible for enhanced stress tolerances that may enable some organisms to better persist into the future in an era of global climate change.