Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change.

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Data from: Snowbeds are more affected than other subalpine-alpine plant communities by climate change in the Swiss Alps

While the upward shift of plant species has been observed on many alpine and nival summits, the reaction of the subalpine and lower alpine plant communities to the current warming and lower snow precipitation has been little investigated so far. To this aim, 63 old, exhaustive plant inventories, distributed along a subalpine–alpine elevation gradient of the Swiss Alps and covering different plant community types (acidic and calcareous grasslands; windy ridges; snowbeds), were revisited after 25–50 years. Old and recent inventories were compared in terms of species diversity with Simpson diversity and Bray–Curtis dissimilarity indices, and in terms of community composition with principal component analysis. Changes in ecological conditions were inferred from the ecological indicator values. The alpha-diversity increased in every plant community, likely because of the arrival of new species. As observed on mountain summits, the new species led to a homogenization of community compositions. The grasslands were quite stable in terms of species composition, whatever the bedrock type. Indeed, the newly arrived species were part of the typical species pool of the colonized community. In contrast, snowbed communities showed pronounced vegetation changes and a clear shift toward dryer conditions and shorter snow cover, evidenced by their colonization by species from surrounding grasslands. Longer growing seasons allow alpine grassland species, which are taller and hence more competitive, to colonize the snowbeds. This study showed that subalpine–alpine plant communities reacted differently to the ongoing climate changes. Lower snow/rain ratio and longer growing seasons seem to have a higher impact than warming, at least on plant communities dependent on long snow cover. Consequently, they are the most vulnerable to climate change and their persistence in the near future is seriously threatened. Subalpine and alpine grasslands are more stable, and, until now, they do not seem to be affected by a warmer climate.

opencc-zeroMar 2020View details →

"Natural" solutions could speed up climate change mitigation, with risks, compared to emissions reductions alone. Additional options are needed.

Mitigation of climate change by intentionally storing carbon in tropical forests, soils and wetlands, and by reducing greenhouse gas fluxes from these settings has been promoted as rapidly deployable and cost-effective. This approach, sometimes referred to as "natural" mitigation, could keep post-industrialization warming below 1.5°C, when coupled with reductions in fossil fuel emissions, as confirmed here with a simple numerical model of future emissions. However, such mitigation could cease in response to changes in future climate, land use or natural resource policies, or there could be CO2 released from reservoirs of stored carbon. Model simulations suggest cumulative emissions could be similar, under scenarios where carbon storage ceases, or stored carbon is released, to emissions expected in the absence of any natural mitigation. If climate change is to be minimized, low-risk natural mitigation (e.g. by reducing deforestation) should be considered, as emissions targets that could limit warming to 1.5°C cannot be met without mitigation of this magnitude. However, additional mitigation options should also be considered that can reduce CO2 emissions and remove CO2 from the air (and store it permanently) and/or reduce the temperature of the atmosphere or the ocean.

Data from: Short-term climate change manipulation effects do not scale up to long-term legacies: effects of an absent snow cover on boreal forest plants

1. Despite time lags and non-linearity in ecological processes, the majority of our knowledge about ecosystem responses to long-term changes in climate originates from relatively short-term experiments. 2. We utilized the longest ongoing snow removal experiment in the world and an additional set of new plots at the same location in northern Sweden to simultaneously measure the effects of long-term (11 winters) and short-term (1 winter) absence of snow cover on boreal forest understorey plants, including effects on root growth and phenology. 3. Short-term absence of snow reduced vascular plant cover in the understorey by 42%, reduced fine root biomass by 16%, reduced shoot growth by up to 53%, and induced tissue damage on two common dwarf shrubs. In the long-term manipulation, more substantial effects on understorey plant cover (92% reduced) and standing fine root biomass (39% reduced) were observed, whereas other response parameters, such as tissue damage, were observed less. Fine root growth was generally reduced, and its initiation delayed by c. 3 (short-term) to 6 weeks (long-term manipulation). 4. Synthesis We show that one extreme winter with a reduced snow cover can already induce ecologically significant alterations. We also show that long-term changes were smaller than suggested by an extrapolation of short-term manipulation results (using a constant proportional decline). In addition, some of those negative responses, such as frost damage and shoot growth, were even absolutely stronger in the short-term compared to the long-term manipulation. This suggests adaptation or survival of only those individuals that are able to cope with these extreme winter conditions, and that the short-term manipulation alone would over-predict long-term impacts. These results highlight both the ecological importance of snow cover in this boreal forest, and the value of combining short- and long-term experiments side by side in climate change research.

Data from: Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change

1. Most climate change adaptation efforts emphasize where to implement management actions, whereas timing remains largely overlooked. The rate of modern climate change introduces urgency in evaluating whether delaying conservation actions compromises their efficacy for reaching important conservation targets. 2. We evaluated the importance of multiple climate change adaptation strategies including timing of actions on preventing extinctions for a threatened climate-sensitive species, the Eastern Massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus). We parameterised a range-wide population viability analysis model that integrated climate change vulnerability components of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. We related demographic sensitivities to drought events and human-modified land cover to assess vulnerability to future climate change. Using simulations, we assessed the efficacy and trade-offs associated with alternative climate adaptation strategies aimed at maximizing the number of future populations including when to initiate conservation actions, duration of management, number of managed populations, and local management effectiveness. 3. Population-level projections under future climate change scenarios revealed a broad-scale pattern of range contraction in the southwestern portion of the current range. Along the extinction gradient, we identified demographic strongholds and refugia critical for population persistence under climate change as well as populations at high risk of extinction and candidates for climate change adaptation actions. 4. In the context of future climate change, the timing of conservation actions was crucial; acting earlier maximised chances of achieving conservation targets. Even considering uncertainty in climate change projections, delaying actions was less efficient and introduced undesirable trade-offs including the need to implement conservation actions for longer or targeting more populations to achieve a similar conservation target. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our findings highlight how acting quickly reduces risk and improves outcomes for a highly vulnerable species under future climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessments for species and ecosystems require translation of model-based outputs into tractable information for climate change adaptation planning. Quantifying trade-offs associated with the multi-dimensional decision space of species conservation and management is a critical step in climate change adaptation.

Data from: Interactive influences of climate change and agriculture on aquatic habitat in a Pacific Northwestern watershed

Climate change and agricultural intensification are two potential stressors that may pose significant threats to aquatic habitats in the inland Pacific Northwest over the next century. Climate change may impact running water through numerous pathways, including effects on water temperature and stream flow. In certain regions of the Pacific Northwest, agricultural activities, such as crop production, may become more profitable if water projects result in more irrigation water. If so, riparian buffers in these areas may be converted into cropland, which may in turn affect aquatic habitats through increases in sediment and agrochemical runoff into streams. We used currently available downscaled temperature and hydrology data in combination with a habitat quality framework developed for Pacific salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp.) to predict how different levels of each stressor, alone and in combination, may impact aquatic habitats in an inland Pacific Northwest watershed dominated by high-value agriculture—the Umatilla Subbasin. We developed spatially explicit predictions for how changes in stream flow and water temperature associated with three climate change scenarios and loss of riparian buffers in two agricultural intensification scenarios may impact aquatic habitats. We also examined the cumulative effects of the interaction of extreme climate change and agricultural intensification scenarios. Our results show that all three climate change scenarios are expected to primarily impact aquatic habitat in the upper Subbasin. In contrast, agricultural intensification scenarios did not have large impacts on temperature, but are predicted to affect other water quality variables in the lower Subbasin. A moderate scenario of agricultural intensification had relatively little effect on aquatic habitat, whereas the removal of all riparian buffers in agriculturally viable areas had a substantially negative effect on sediment, embeddedness, and large woody debris in the lower Subbasin. Interactions between the most extreme climate change and agricultural intensification scenarios reflected a complementarity of effects, with climate change primarily affecting the upper Subbasin and agricultural intensification primarily impacting the lower Subbasin. This work suggests that the Umatilla Subbasin and similar watersheds will present a challenging habitat for warm water- and pollution-intolerant species in the coming century.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Thermal sensitivity of a Neotropical amphibian (Engystomops pustulosus) and its vulnerability to climate change

A species' thermal sensitivity and its exposure to climate variation are key components in the prediction of its vulnerability to climate change. We tested the thermal sensitivity of a tropical amphibian that lives in a mild constant climate in which the thermal tolerance range is expected to closely match the experienced environmental temperature. The air temperature that this species is exposed to varies between 21.9 and 31.6°C with an annual mean of 27.2°C. We estimated the microhabitat water temperature variation under vegetation shade, which buffers the temperature by 1.8°C in relation to that of the air, and with open canopy, where the water was 1.9°C warmer than the air temperature. With broods of tadpoles split into five treatments (15°C, 21°C, 28°C, 31°C, and 33°C), we estimated the critical thermal maximum (CTMax) and critical thermal minimum (CTMin) after at least 7 days of acclimation. Both CTMax (42.3°C) and CTMin (11.8°C) were more extreme than the temperature range estimated for the field. We estimated the optimum temperature (To = 28.8°C) and the thermal performance breadth (range: 23.3–34.1°C) based on growth rate (g/day). The animals were able to acclimate more extensively to cold than to warm temperatures. These performance curve traits closely matched the air temperature. The estimated vulnerability varied according to the microhabitat prediction model used. The combination of tadpole data on thermal sensitivity and macro- and microhabitat variation provides a necessary framework to understand the effects of climate change on tropical amphibians.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Fire-regime complacency and sensitivity to centennial- through millennial-scale climate change in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Colorado, U.S.A.

1. Key uncertainties in anticipating future fire regimes are their sensitivity to climate change, and the degree to which climate will impact fire regimes directly, through increasing the probability of fire, versus indirectly, through changes in vegetation and landscape flammability. 2. We studied the sensitivity of subalpine forest fire regimes (i.e., fire frequency, fire severity) to previously documented climate variability over the past 6000 years, utilizing pollen and macroscopic charcoal from high-resolution lake-sediment records in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. We combined data from the four lakes to provide composite records of vegetation and fire history within a 200 km2 study area. 3. Rates of forest burning were relatively complacent to millennial-scale summer cooling and decreased effective moisture. Mean return intervals between fire episodes, defined over 500-year periods, generally varied between 150-250 years, consistent with tree-ring-based estimates spanning recent centuries. Variability around these long-term means, however, was significantly correlated with variability in summer moisture (i.e., more burning with drier summers), inferred from existing lake-level and supporting paleoenvironmental records. 4. The most pronounced change in fire regimes was in response to decreased subalpine forest density ca. 2400 cal. year BP, itself a response to regional cooling. This indirect impact of climate was followed by a decrease in charcoal production per fire, a proxy for crown-fire severity, while the long-term rate of burning remained unchanged. Over the last 1500 years, increased summer evaporation and drought frequency were associated with increased fire severity, highlighting a direct link between fire and climate. 5. Synthesis: Subalpine forest fire history reveals complacency and sensitivity of fire regimes to changing vegetation and hydroclimate over the past 6000 years. Complacency is highlighted by non-varying fire frequency over millennia. Sensitivity is evident through changes in biomass burned per fire (and inferred fire severity), in response to climate-induced changes in forest density and, more recently, increased summer drought. Overall, the paleo record suggests that (i) fire severity may be more responsive to climate change than fire frequency in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and (ii) the indirect impacts of climate on vegetation and fuels are important mechanisms determining fire-regime response to climate change.

Data from: A diet rich in C3 plants reveals the sensitivity of an alpine mammal to climate change

Plant-herbivore interactions provide critical insights into the mechanisms that govern the spatiotemporal distributions of organisms. These interactions are crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change, which are likely to have an effect on the population dynamics of alpine herbivores. The Royle's pika (Ochotona roylei, hereafter pika) is a lagomorph found in the western Himalaya, and is dependent on alpine plants that are at risk from climate change. As the main prey of many carnivores in the region, the pika plays a crucial role in trophic interactions. We examined topographical features, plant genera presence, and seasonal dynamics as drivers of the plant richness in the pika's diet across an elevational gradient (2600−4450 m). We identified 79 plant genera in the faecal pellets of pikas, of which 89% were forbs, > 60% were endemic to the Himalaya and 97.5% of the plant genera identified followed the C3 photosynthetic pathway. We found that during the pre-monsoon season, the plant richness of the pika's diet decreased with increasing elevation. We demonstrate that a large area of talus supports greater plant diversity and, not surprisingly, results in higher species richness in the pika's diet. However, in talus habitat with deep crevices, pikas consumed fewer plant genera suggesting they may be foraging sub-optimally due to predation risk. The continued increase in global temperature is expected to have an effect on the distribution dynamics of C3 plants and consequently influence pika diet and distribution, resulting in a significant negative cascading effect on the Himalayan ecosystem.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change

To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km2 study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: A phylogenetic analysis of the grape genus (Vitis L.) reveals broad reticulation and concurrent diversification during neogene and quaternary climate change

Background: Grapes are one of the most economically important fruit crops. There are about 60 species in the genus Vitis. The phylogenetic relationships among these species are of keen interest for the conservation and use of this germplasm. We selected 309 accessions from 48 Vitis species,varieties, and outgroups, examined ~11 kb (~3.4 Mb total) of aligned nuclear DNA sequences from 27 unlinked genes in a phylogenetic context, and estimated divergence times based on fossil calibrations. Results: Vitis formed a strongly supported clade. There was substantial support for species and less for the higher-level groupings (series). As estimated from extant taxa, the crown age of Vitis was 28 Ma and the divergence of subgenera (Vitis and Muscadinia) occurred at ~18 Ma. Higher clades in subgenus Vitis diverged 16 -- 5 Ma with overlapping confidence intervals, and ongoing divergence formed extant species at 12 -- 1.3 Ma. Several species had species-specific SNPs. NeighborNet analysis showed extensive reticulation at the core of subgenus Vitis representing the deeper nodes, with extensive reticulation radiating outward. Fitch Parsimony identified North America as the origin of the most recent common ancestor of extant Vitis species. Conclusions: Phylogenetic patterns suggested origination of the genus in North America, fragmentation of an ancestral range during the Miocene, formation of extant species in the late Miocene-Pleistocene, and differentiation of species in the context of Pliocene-Quaternary tectonic and climatic change. Nuclear SNPs effectively resolved relationships at and below the species level in grapes and rectified several misclassifications of accessions in the repositories. Our results challenge current higher-level classifications, reveal the abundance of genetic diversity in the genus that is potentially available for crop improvement, and provide a valuable resource for species delineation, germplasm conservation and use.

Data from: The impacts of climate change and disturbance on spatio-temporal trajectories of biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape

The ongoing changes to climate challenge the conservation of forest biodiversity. Yet, in thermally limited systems, such as temperate forests, not all species groups might be affected negatively. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the disturbance regime have the potential to mitigate climate-related impacts on forest species. Here, we (i) investigated the potential long-term effect of climate change on biodiversity in a mountain forest landscape, (ii) assessed the effects of different disturbance frequencies, severities and sizes and (iii) identified biodiversity hotspots at the landscape scale to facilitate conservation management. We employed the model iLand to dynamically simulate the tree vegetation on 13 865 ha of the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria over 1000 years, and investigated 36 unique combinations of different disturbance and climate scenarios. We used simulated changes in tree cover and composition as well as projected temperature and precipitation to predict changes in the diversity of Araneae, Carabidae, ground vegetation, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Mollusca, saproxylic beetles, Symphyta and Syrphidae, using empirical response functions. Our findings revealed widely varying responses of biodiversity indicators to climate change. Five indicators showed overall negative effects, with Carabidae, saproxylic beetles and tree species diversity projected to decrease by more than 33%. Six indicators responded positively to climate change, with Hymenoptera, Mollusca and Syrphidae diversity projected to increase more than twofold. Disturbances were generally beneficial for the studied indicators of biodiversity. Our results indicated that increasing disturbance frequency and severity have a positive effect on biodiversity, while increasing disturbance size has a moderately negative effect. Spatial hotspots of biodiversity were currently found in low- to mid-elevation areas of the mountainous study landscape, but shifted to higher-elevation zones under changing climate conditions. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight that intensifying disturbance regimes may alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity. However, the projected shift in biodiversity hotspots is a challenge for static conservation areas. In this regard, overlapping hotspots under current and expected future conditions highlight priority areas for robust conservation management.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic dataset and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

Data from: Climate-driven hydrological variability determines inter-annual changes in stream invertebrate community assembly

Although flow regime is one of the major drivers of riverine communities, not much is known about how inter-annual variability and extremes of flow influence community assembly mechanisms. We used data on benthic macroinvertebrates and modelled flow regimes in 23 near-pristine boreal streams to assess how community assembly mechanisms and species occupancy varied in response to inter-annual variability in flow conditions across 11 successive years encompassing extreme (both low and high) flow events. A null model approach was used to test whether deterministic or stochastic processes dominated community assembly and how much regional (among-stream) flow variability contributed to community variability (β-diversity). Mean daily flow and the greatest rate of flow rise were the strongest flow-related descriptors of invertebrate community composition. Communities were differentially assembled depending on the direction of change in flow magnitude: in high-flow years, communities were more similar than expected by chance, while at low flows they tended to be more dissimilar than expected. Beta-diversity of macroinvertebrate communities was related to among-stream flow variability only at high flows. Common species correlated strongly with flow variability and contributed most to variation in β-diversity, suggesting that changes in assembly mechanisms are mainly driven by common species. While homogenization of communities in high-flow years reflected increased species occupancies and environmental sorting, increased turnover during low flows likely resulted from stochastic extinctions and dispersal limitation. Our findings suggest that extreme hydrological events exert a strong control over stream invertebrate community assembly, and their effect may be even more profound in the future as high and low-flow spells are expected to occur more frequently, not allowing time for communities to recover.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Pleistocene climate change and phylogeographic structure of the Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae) in the northwest China: Evidence from plastid DNA, ITS sequences, and Microsatellite

Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB‐psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: hS = 0.330, hT = 0.866; ITS: hS = 0.458, hT = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions—Tarim Basin, the central regions—Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions—Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species.

Data from: Adaptation to climate change: trade-offs among responses to multiple stressors in an intertidal crustacean

Trade-offs may influence both physiological and evolutionary responses to co-occurring stressors, but their effects on both plastic and adaptive responses to climate change are poorly understood. To test for genetic and physiological trade-offs incurred in tolerating multiple stressors, we hybridized two populations of the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus that were divergent for both heat and salinity tolerance. Starting in the F2 generation, we selected for increased tolerance of heat, low salinity, and high salinity in replicate lines. After five generations of selection, heat-selected lines had greater heat tolerance but lower fecundity, indicating an energetic cost to tolerance. Lines selected for increased salinity tolerance did not show evidence of adaptation to their respective environments; however, hypo-osmotic selection lines showed substantial loss of tolerance to hyperosmotic stress. Neither of the salinity selection regimes resulted in diminished heat tolerance at ambient salinity; however, simultaneous exposure to heat and hypo-osmotic stress led to decreased heat tolerance, implying a physiological trade-off in tolerance to the two stressors. When we quantified the transcriptomic response to heat and salinity stress via RNA sequencing, we observed little overlap in the stress responses, suggesting the observed synergistic effects of heat and salinity stress were driven by competing energetic demands, rather than shared stress response pathways.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities

1. Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. 2. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. 3. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. 4. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. 5. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. 6. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity—rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.