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2,260 results for “Climatic change”
Data from: Phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary change? An examination of the phenological response of an arctic seabird to climate change
1. Phenological adjustments are an important aspect of a population's response to climate change. Changes in phenology can occur through either individual plasticity or evolutionary change within populations. Few studies have investigated both these processes in Arctic environments. 2. Using 42 years of individual and pedigree data, we evaluated the contribution of plasticity and evolution to variation in breeding phenology at a colony of a high Arctic sea-ice obligate seabird, Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii). Mean clutch initiation (first egg in a clutch) advanced 7.8 days, and both environmental (snowmelt) and demographic (years of breeding experience) factors varied among years. 3. Earlier phenology was associated with earlier snowmelt and experienced mothers. Females advanced phenology at different rates as they aged but at similar rates in response to variation in snowmelt. Heritability of clutch initiation was negligible, and there was no evidence of evolution contributing to phenological changes. 4. Earlier laying was associated with increased annual number of fledglings and annual adult survival at the individual level suggesting that the phenological changes are adaptive and are driven by phenotypic plasticity, but not genetic responses. 5. We propose that species with a constrained breeding season (like many Arctic species) may have a limited ability beyond existing plasticity to respond to changing environmental conditions.
Data from: Assessing the vulnerability of Africa's freshwater fishes to climate change: a continent-wide trait-based analysis
Climate change is a key driver of biodiversity loss across the globe, and freshwater fishes are predicted to be among the most vulnerable taxa. African freshwater ecosystems are home to one of the most unique and diverse ichthyo-faunas on the planet, and freshwater fish species provide essential livelihoods for millions of people living in riparian communities across the continent. Although nearly one sixth of African freshwater fishes have been designated as endangered or vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN Red List assessment, the effects of climate change on these species have not been explored on a continent-wide scale. In this study, we present the first trait-based climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) comprising the majority (85%) of Africa's currently described freshwater fishes. We assembled data relating to three dimensions of vulnerability including sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure. In addition, we developed an index of 'conservation value' based on traditional conservation metrics including extinction risk, endemism, and provision of ecosystem services. We found that almost 40% of African freshwater fishes are vulnerable to climate change, mostly owing to the many species with highly specialized habitat and life-history requirements, and because of the numerous anthropogenic stressors they face. High proportions of species within the Nothobranchiidae and Cichlidae families were found to be vulnerable. Regions with high frequencies of vulnerable species included the African rift valley lakes, the Congo River drainage, and the coastal rivers of West Africa. Several important data deficiencies were identified relating to species' population sizes, genetic variability, and life history traits, and constitute priority research areas for the future. In addition, we highlighted some cases where traditional conservation approaches overlook species and regions that are predicted to be threatened by climate change.
Data from: The rate of seasonal changes in temperature alters acclimation of performance under climate change
How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.
Data from: Artificial selection on reproductive timing in hatchery salmon drives a phenological shift and potential maladaptation to climate change
The timing of breeding migration and reproduction links generations and substantially influences individual fitness. In salmonid fishes, such phenological events (seasonal return to fresh water and spawning) vary among populations but are consistent among years, indicating local adaptation in these traits to prevailing environmental conditions. Changing reproductive phenology has been observed in many populations of salmonids, and is sometimes attributed to adaptive responses to climate change. The sockeye salmon spawning in the Cedar River near Seattle, Washington have displayed dramatic changes in spawning timing over the past 50 years, trending later through the early 1990s, and becoming earlier since then. We explored the patterns and drivers of these changes using generalized linear models and mathematical simulations to identify possible environmental correlates of the changes, and test the alternative hypothesis that hatchery propagation caused inadvertent selection on timing. The trend toward later spawning prior to 1993 was partially explained by environmental changes, but the advance in spawning since was not. Instead, since its initiation in 1991 the hatchery has, on average, selected for earlier spawning, and, depending on trait heritability, could have advanced spawning by 1-3 weeks over this period. We estimated heritability of spawning date to be high (h2 ~ 0.8; 95% CI: 0.5-1.1), so the upper end of this range is not improbable, though at lower heritabilities a smaller effect would be expected. The lower reproductive success of early spawners and relatively low survival of early emerging juveniles observed in recent years suggest that artificial and natural selection are acting in opposite directions. The fitness costs of early spawning may be exacerbated by future warming, thus artificially advanced phenology could reduce the population's productivity. Such artificial selection is known in many salmon hatcheries, so there are broad consequences for the productivity of wild populations comingled with hatchery produced fish.
Data from: Disturbance history mediates climate change effects on subtropical forest biomass and dynamics
The responses of forest communities to interacting anthropogenic disturbances like climate change and logging are poorly known. Subtropical forests have been heavily modified by humans and their response to climate change is poorly understood. We investigated the nine year-change observed in a mixed conifer-hardwood Atlantic forest mosaic that included both mature and selectively-logged forest patches in subtropical South America. We used demographic monitoring data within 10 1 ha plots that were subjected to distinct management histories (plots logged until 1955, until 1987, and unlogged) to test the hypothesis that climate change affected forest structure and dynamics differentially depending on past disturbances. We determined the functional group of all species based on life-history affinities as well as many functional traits like leaf size, specific leaf area, wood density, total height, stem slenderness, and seed size data for the 66 most abundant species. Analysis of climate data revealed that minimum temperatures and rainfall have been increasing in the last few decades of the 20th century. Floristic composition differed mainly with logging history categories, with only minor change over the nine annual census intervals. Aboveground biomass increased in all plots, but increases were higher in mature unlogged forests, which showed signs of forest growth associated with increased CO2, temperature, and rainfall/treefall gap disturbance at the same time. Logged forests showed arrested succession as indicated by reduced abundances of Pioneers and biomass-accumulators like Large Seeded Pioneers and Araucaria, as well as reduced functional diversity. Management actions aimed at creating regeneration opportunities for long-lived pioneers are needed to restore community functional diversity, and ecosystem services such as increased aboveground biomass accumulation. We conclude that the effects of climate drivers on the dynamics of Brazilian mixed Atlantic forests vary with land-use legacies, and can differ importantly from the ones prevalent in better known tropical forests.
Data from: Multidimensional environmental influences on timing of breeding in a tree swallow population facing climate change
Most phenological traits are extremely sensitive to current climate change and advances in the timing of important life-history events have been observed in many species. In birds, phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature is thought to be the main mechanism underlying yearly adjustment in the timing of breeding. However, other factors could be important and interact to affect the levels of plastic responses between and/or within-individuals. Here we use long-term individual-based data on Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to identify the spatial and environmental drivers affecting plasticity in laying date and to assess their importance at both population and individual levels. We found that laying date has advanced by 4.2 days over 10 years, and that it was mainly influenced by latitude and an interaction between spring temperature and breeder density. Analyses of individual plasticity showed that increases in temperature, but not in breeder density, resulted in within-individual advances in laying date. Our results suggest that females can adjust their laying date as a function of temperature, but that this adjustment will be partly constrained in habitats with lower breeder densities. Such potential constraint is especially worrying for the broad array of species already declining as a result of climate change.
Data from: The changing contribution of top-down and bottom-up limitation of mesopredators during 220 years of land use and climate change
Apex predators may buffer bottom-up driven ecosystem change, as top-down suppression may dampen herbivore and mesopredator responses to increased resource availability. However, theory suggests that for this buffering capacity to be realized, the equilibrium abundance of apex predators must increase. This raises the question: will apex predators maintain herbivore/mesopredator limitation, if bottom-up change relaxes resource constraints? Here, we explore changes in mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) abundance over 220 years in response to eradication and recovery of an apex predator (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx), and changes in land use and climate which are linked to resource availability. A three-step approach was used. First, recent data from Finland and Sweden were modelled to estimate linear effects of lynx density, land use and winter temperature on fox density. Second, lynx density, land use and winter temperature was estimated in a 22 650 km2 focal area in boreal and boreo-nemoral Sweden in the years 1830, 1920, 2010 and 2050. Third, the models and estimates were used to project historic and future fox densities in the focal area. Projected fox density was lowest in 1830 when lynx density was high, winters cold and the proportion of cropland low. Fox density peaked in 1920 due to lynx eradication, a mesopredator release boosted by favourable bottom-up changes - milder winters and cropland expansion. By 2010, lynx recolonization had reduced fox density, but it remained higher than in 1830, partly due to the bottom-up changes. Comparing 1830 to 2010, the contribution of top-down limitation decreased, while environment enrichment relaxed bottom-up limitation. Future scenarios indicated that by 2050, lynx density would have to increase by 79% to compensate for a projected climate driven increase in fox density. We highlight that although top-down limitation in theory can buffer bottom-up change, this requires compensatory changes in apex predator abundance. Hence apex predator recolonization/recovery to historical levels would not be sufficient to compensate for widespread changes in climate and land use, which have relaxed the resource constraints for many herbivores and mesopredators. Variation in bottom-up conditions may also contribute to context dependence in apex predator effects.
Data from: Fire-regime complacency and sensitivity to centennial- through millennial-scale climate change in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Colorado, U.S.A.
1. Key uncertainties in anticipating future fire regimes are their sensitivity to climate change, and the degree to which climate will impact fire regimes directly, through increasing the probability of fire, versus indirectly, through changes in vegetation and landscape flammability. 2. We studied the sensitivity of subalpine forest fire regimes (i.e., fire frequency, fire severity) to previously documented climate variability over the past 6000 years, utilizing pollen and macroscopic charcoal from high-resolution lake-sediment records in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. We combined data from the four lakes to provide composite records of vegetation and fire history within a 200 km2 study area. 3. Rates of forest burning were relatively complacent to millennial-scale summer cooling and decreased effective moisture. Mean return intervals between fire episodes, defined over 500-year periods, generally varied between 150-250 years, consistent with tree-ring-based estimates spanning recent centuries. Variability around these long-term means, however, was significantly correlated with variability in summer moisture (i.e., more burning with drier summers), inferred from existing lake-level and supporting paleoenvironmental records. 4. The most pronounced change in fire regimes was in response to decreased subalpine forest density ca. 2400 cal. year BP, itself a response to regional cooling. This indirect impact of climate was followed by a decrease in charcoal production per fire, a proxy for crown-fire severity, while the long-term rate of burning remained unchanged. Over the last 1500 years, increased summer evaporation and drought frequency were associated with increased fire severity, highlighting a direct link between fire and climate. 5. Synthesis: Subalpine forest fire history reveals complacency and sensitivity of fire regimes to changing vegetation and hydroclimate over the past 6000 years. Complacency is highlighted by non-varying fire frequency over millennia. Sensitivity is evident through changes in biomass burned per fire (and inferred fire severity), in response to climate-induced changes in forest density and, more recently, increased summer drought. Overall, the paleo record suggests that (i) fire severity may be more responsive to climate change than fire frequency in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and (ii) the indirect impacts of climate on vegetation and fuels are important mechanisms determining fire-regime response to climate change.
Data from: Climate change will increase savannas at the expense of forests and treeless vegetation in tropical and subtropical Americas
1. Transition areas between biomes are particularly sensitive to environmental changes. Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing climate change on terrestrial ecosystems has significantly increased during the last years. However, it is largely unknown how climatic change will affect transitions among major vegetation types. 2. We modelled the distribution of three alternative states (forest, savanna and treeless areas) in the tropical and subtropical Americas by means of climate-niche modelling. We studied how such distribution will change by the year 2070 by using 17 downscaled and calibrated global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the latest scenarios provided by the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. 3. Our results support the savannization of the tropical and subtropical Americas because of climate change, with an increase in savannas mainly at the expense of forests. 4. Our models predict an important geographical shift in the current distribution of transition areas between forest and savannas, which is much less pronounced in the case of those between savannas and treeless areas. Largest shifts, up to 600 km northward, are predicted in the forest–savanna transitions located in the eastern Amazon. 5. Our findings indicate that climate change will promote a shift towards more unstable states: the extent of the transition areas will notably increase, and largely stable forest areas are predicted to shrink dramatically. 6. Synthesis. Our work explores dimensions of the impact of climate change on biomes that have received little attention so far. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of savanna, forest and treeless areas in the tropical and subtropical Americas, but also will: (i) promote a significant geographical shift and an increase of the extent of transition areas between biomes and (ii) decrease the stability of the equilibrium between forest, savanna and treeless areas, yielding a more unpredictable system.
Data from: From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants
Climate change is projected to influence the genetic resources of plant species. Recent research has examined genetic diversity patterns under current climate conditions, with little attention to the future genetic consequences for species. In this study, we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic approaches to project future changes in genetic diversity using plastid and nuclear DNA and reconstructed distribution patterns of three circumboreal plants (Chamaedaphne calyculata, Linnaea borealis ssp. borealis, and Pedicularis sceptrum-carolinum ssp. sceptrum-carolinum) in the last glacial maximum. We found that circumboreal plants could potentially lose their geographic ranges in the future (2070; 35–52% in RCP 4.5 (representative concentration pathways), 37–53% in RCP 6.0, and 56–69% in RCP 8.5), only slightly compensated by a predicted range gain of 18–33% (across the three RCPs). It is expected that future genetic diversity level could remain similar or lower than the present level. On the other hand, the homogeneity of the genetic background—a lack of admixture and domination of one gene pool in most populations of C. calyculata and L. borealis ssp. borealis—was predicted to become more pronounced in the future. Combining the paleoecological niche modeling and genetic data revealed, more precisely, the climate refugia for circumboreal plants in the Alps, central Asia, Beringia, and southern North America and the macrorefugia more restricted to the northern part of Eurasia and North America, reaching the arctic zone.
Data from: Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth
Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2-fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change.
Data from: Bison body size and climate change
The relationship between body size and temperature of mammals is poorly resolved, especially for large keystone species such as bison (Bison bison). Bison are well-represented in the fossil record across North America, which provides an opportunity to relate body size to climate within a species. We measured the length of a leg bone (calcaneal tuber, DstL) in 849 specimens from 60 localities that were dated by stratigraphy and 14C decay. We estimated body mass (M) as: M = (DstL/11.49) 3. Average annual temperature was estimated from δ18O values in the ice cores from Greenland. Calcaneal tuber length of Bison declined over the last 40,000 years, that is, average body mass was 37% larger (910 ± 50 kg) than today (665 ± 21 kg). Average annual temperature has warmed by 6°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (~24-18 kya) and is predicted to further increase by 4°C by the end of the 21st century. If body size continues to linearly respond to global temperature, Bison body mass will likely decline by an additional 46%, to 357 ± 54 kg, with an increase of 4°C globally. The rate of mass loss is 41 ± 10 kg per °C increase of global temperature. Changes in body size of Bison may be a result of migration, disease, or human harvest but those effects are likely to be local and short-term and not likely to persist over the long-time-scale of the fossil record. The strong correspondence between body size of bison and air temperature is more likely the result of persistent effects on the ability to grow and the consequences of sustaining a large body mass in a warming environment. Continuing rises in global temperature will likely depress body sizes of bison, and perhaps other large grazers, without human intervention.
Data from: Climate change may drive cave spiders to extinction
Subterranean ecosystems present ideal opportunities to study mechanisms underlying responses to changes in climate because species within them are often adapted to a largely constant temperature. We have characterized the thermal conditions of caves in the Western Alps, and related these hypogean climate data to the occurrence of Troglohyphantes spiders (Araneae, Linyphiidae). Our data indicated that present distributions reflect Pleistocene glaciation events and also pointed to specific responses as a consequence of changes in temperature. Constant temperatures recorded inside caves provide an approximation of the mean annual temperature outside, thus we extended the results to a regional scale. We used ecological niche modeling to predict habitat suitability both in the Pleistocene and under future global warming scenarios. These analyses pointed toward a future decline in habitat suitability for subterranean spiders and the potential extinction of the most restricted endemic species. When compared with other species that live in confined habitats such as islands and mountains, we expect cave species to be as much, if not more, vulnerable to climate change.
Data from: Spatial and temporal aridity gradients provide poor proxies for plant-plant interactions under climate change: a large-scale experiment
1. Plant-plant interactions may critically modify the impact of climate change on plant communities. However, the magnitude and even direction of potential future interactions remains highly debated, especially for water limited ecosystems. Predictions range from increasing facilitation to increasing competition with future aridification. 2. The different methodologies used for assessing plant-plant interactions under changing environmental conditions may affect the outcome but they are not equally represented in the literature. Mechanistic experimental manipulations are rare compared to correlative approaches that infer future patterns from current observations along spatial climatic gradients. 3. Here, we utilize a unique climatic gradient in combination with a large-scale, long-term experiment to test whether predictions about plant-plant interactions yield similar results when using experimental manipulations, spatial gradients or temporal variation. We assessed shrub-annual interactions in three different sites along a natural rainfall gradient (spatial) during 9 years of varying rainfall (temporal) and 8 years of dry and wet manipulations of ambient rainfall (experimental) that closely mimicked regional climate scenarios. 4. The results were fundamentally different among all three approaches. Experimental water manipulations hardly altered shrub effects on annual plant communities for the assessed fitness parameters biomass and survival. Along the spatial gradient, shrub effects shifted from clearly negative to mildly facilitative towards drier sites, whereas temporal variation showed the opposite trend: more negative shrub effects in drier years. 5. Based on our experimental approach, we conclude that shrub-annual interaction will remain similar under climate change. In contrast, the commonly applied space-for time approach based on spatial gradients would have suggested increasing facilitative effects with climate change. We discuss potential mechanisms governing the differences among the three approaches. 6. Our study highlights the critical importance of long-term experimental manipulations for evaluating climate change impacts. Correlative approaches, e.g. along spatial or temporal gradients, may be misleading and overestimate the response of plant-plant interactions to climate change.
Data from: Population dynamics of a northern-adapted mammal: disentangling the influence of predation and climate change
Community structure and interspecific interactions are particularly vulnerable to rapidly changing climatic regimes. Recent changes in both climate and vertebrate community assemblages have created a unique opportunity to examine the impacts of two dynamic forces on population regulation. We examined the effects of warming winter conditions and the reestablishment of a previously extirpated predator, the fisher (Martes pennanti), on regulatory mechanisms in a northern-adapted mammal, the porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum), along their southern range boundary. Using a long-term (17-year) capture–recapture data set, we (1) quantified the impacts of climate change and increased fisher predation on the survival of adult porcupines at their regional southern terminus, (2) assessed recruitment (via both adult fecundity and juvenile survival) of porcupines, and (3) modeled the relative importance of predation and winter conditions on the demography and population growth rate (λ). Severe winters and abundant predators interacted synergistically to reduce adult survivorship by as much as 44%, while expanding predator populations led to near reproductive failure among porcupines. Increasing predatory pressure, disruptions in this community module, and more frequent extreme winter weather events led to predicted extirpation within 50 years, whereas in the absence of predators, the population was viable. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding behind distributional shifts resulting from climate change and may be broadly relevant for predicting future distributional shifts in other northern-adapted mammalian species.
Data from: Trophic sensitivity of invasive predator and native prey interactions: integrating environmental context and climate change
Climate change is predicted to intensify the impacts of invasive species by enhancing their performance relative to their native counterparts. However, few studies have compared the performance of invasive predators and native prey, despite the fact that non-native predators are well known to disrupt native communities. The 'trophic sensitivity hypothesis' suggests that predators are less tolerant of increasing environmental stress than their prey, whereas the 'tolerant invaders hypothesis' suggests that invaders are more tolerant than native species due to selection during the introduction process. It is therefore unclear how invasive predators will respond to increasing climate stressors. We coupled physiological measurements (thermal tolerance, thermal optima, salinity tolerance, predation rate) with environmental time-series data to assess the effects of warming and extreme low salinity events on non-native predators (gastropods) and native prey (oysters) from a coastal ecosystem. In general support of the trophic sensitivity hypothesis, we found that both non-native predators exhibited lower thermal optima relative to native prey, lower salinity tolerance and one predator was less tolerant of warming. However, because warming tolerance was extremely high (i.e. habitat temperature is 7·9–21 °C below thermal tolerance), near-term warming may first increase predator performance (consumption and growth rates), with negative effects on prey. Low salinity will likely produce heterogeneous effects on predator–prey interactions due to varying watershed sizes among estuaries that control the duration of low salinity events. The trophic sensitivity hypothesis may be a useful framework for understanding community responses to extreme climate change, which portends a decoupling of predator–prey interactions. However, we conclude that this hypothesis must be evaluated in environmental context and that coupling physiological metrics with in situ environmental data offers the best predictive power of near-term climate change impacts on invaded communities. Within our study system, warming is likely to intensify the impacts of both invasive predators, which may greatly reduce the abundance of the native oyster, a species of conservation and restoration focus.
Data from: How shrub encroachment under climate change could threaten pollination services for alpine wildflowers: a case study using the alpine skypilot, Polemonium viscosum
Under climate change, shrubs encroaching into high altitude plant communities disrupt ecosystem processes. Yet effects of encroachment on pollination mutualisms are poorly understood. Here, we probe potential fitness impacts of interference from encroaching Salix (willows) on pollination quality of the alpine skypilot, Polemonium viscosum. Overlap in flowering time of Salix and Polemonium is a precondition for interference and was surveyed in four extant and 25 historic contact zones. Pollinator sharing was ascertained from observations of willow pollen on bumble bees visiting Polemonium flowers and on Polemonium pistils. We probed fitness effects of pollinator sharing by measuring the correlation between Salix pollen contamination and seed set in naturally pollinated Polemonium. To ascertain whether Salix interference occurred during or after pollination, we compared seed set under natural pollination, conspecific pollen addition, and Salix pollen addition. In current and past contact zones Polemonium and Salix overlapped in flowering time. After accounting for variance in flowering date due to latitude, Salix and Polemonium showed similar advances in flowering under warmer summers. This trend supports the idea that sensitivity to temperature promotes reproductive synchrony in both species. Salix pollen is carried by bumble bees when visiting Polemonium flowers and accounts for up to 25% of the grains on Polemonium pistils. Salix contamination correlates with reduced seed set in nature and when applied experimentally. Postpollination processes likely mediate these deleterious effects as seed set in nature was not limited by pollen delivery. Synthesis: As willows move higher with climate change, we predict that they will drive postpollination interference, reducing the fitness benefits of pollinator visitation for Polemonium and selecting for traits that reduce pollinator sharing.
Data from: Differentiation in neutral genes and a candidate gene in the pied flycatcher: using biological archives to track global climate change
Global climate change is one of the major driving forces for adaptive shifts in migration and breeding phenology and possibly impacts demographic changes if a species fails to adapt sufficiently. In Western Europe, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) have insufficiently adapted their breeding phenology to the ongoing advance of food peaks within their breeding area and consequently suffered local population declines. We address the question whether this population decline led to a loss of genetic variation, using two neutral marker sets (mitochondrial control region and microsatellites), and one potentially selectively non-neutral marker (avian Clock gene). We report temporal changes in genetic diversity in extant populations and biological archives over more than a century, using samples from sites differing in the extent of climate change. Comparing genetic differentiation over this period revealed that only the recent Dutch population, which underwent population declines, showed slightly lower genetic variation than the historic Dutch population. As that loss of variation was only moderate and not observed in all markers, current gene flow across Western and Central European populations might have compensated local loss of variation over the last decades. A comparison of genetic differentiation in neutral loci versus the Clock gene locus provided evidence for stabilizing selection. Furthermore, in all genetic markers, we found a greater genetic differentiation in space than in time. This pattern suggests that local adaptation or historic processes might have a stronger effect on the population structure and genetic variation in the pied flycatcher than recent global climate changes.
Data from: Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change
Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long-lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of FST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using > 4,200 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in south-eastern Australia. Eighty-one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in FST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70 / 81), aridity (37 / 81) or precipitation (35 / 81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence, or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographical level for maintaining species' evolutionary potential.
Data from: What is a mild winter? Regional differences in within-species responses to climate change
Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species' demographic response to climate change.
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
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The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
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