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2,260 results for “Climatic change”
Data from: Climate change increases ecogeographic isolation between closely related plants
1. Ecogeographic isolation is a fundamental prezygotic barrier to reproduction and a step toward diversification in flowering plants. However, whether ecogeographic isolation acts as a reproductive barrier between species and thus as a mechanism for species divergence is unclear and is expected to change as species distributions shift under climate change. 2. Using a Maxent framework, we quantified the extent of ecogeographic isolation of nine closely related species of the European plant genus Pulmonaria, which lack pre-mating barriers and often form hybrids. We investigated ecogeographic isolation under both current conditions and four climate change scenarios; two unrelated future climate models, each with two predictions of the potential trajectories of climate change. 3. Compared with current climates, under these future climate scenarios, there will be an increase in mean annual temperature, but not in mean annual precipitation in the range of Pulmonaria throughout Europe. This will result in a range contraction in three of the nine Pulmonaria species, a range expansion in two species, and no clear effect of climate change on the ranges of four species. 4. Climate change will result in an overall increase in ecogeographic isolation between these species in future. In particular, species that have low ecogeographic isolation under current conditions are predicted to increase the most in their ecogeographic isolation under climate change. 5. Synthesis These results highlight that climate change can strongly impact on a major premating barrier of closely related species, therefore potentially affect the evolutionary trajectory of plants in the future.
Data from: Climatic change only stimulated growth for trees under weak competition in central boreal forests
1. Global change ecologists have often used trees under weak competition (e.g., dominant/codominant trees) to examine relationships between climatic change and tree growth. Scaling up these results to a forest relies on the assumption that the climatic change-tree growth relationship is not affected by tree-level competition. 2. Using permanent sample plot data from the central Canadian boreal region where warming did not result in water deficit, we tested the above-mentioned assumption by looking at whether the relationship between climatic change and tree growth varied with tree-level competition, which was quantified using a modified Hegyi competition index. 3. We found that tree growth increased over time for trees under weak competition, but decreased for those under strong competition. The divergent temporal trends among trees under different levels of competition led to a non-significant change in growth for our study plots. Growth increased with regional warming, atmospheric [CO2] and water availability for trees under weak competition, but not for those under strong competition. 4. Synthesis. Our results suggest that upscaling the growth responses of dominant/codominant trees to climate change to a forest or a region can lead to biased estimates. Tree-level competition should be taken into account when expressing climatic change and tree growth relationships.
Data from: Future suitability of habitat in a migratory ungulate under climate change
With climate change, the effect of global warming on snow cover is expected to cause range expansion and enhance habitat suitability for species at their northern distribution limits. However, how this depend on landscape topography and sex in size-dimorphic species remains uncertain, and is further complicated for migratory animals following climate-driven seasonal resource fluctuations across vast landscapes. Using 11 years of data from a partially migratory ungulate at their northern distribution ranges, the red deer (Cervus elaphus), we predicted sex-specific summer and winter habitat suitability in diverse landscapes under medium and severe global warming. We found large increases in future winter habitat suitability, resulting in expansion of winter ranges as currently unsuitable habitat became suitable. Even moderate warming decreased snow cover substantially, with no suitability difference between warming scenarios. Winter ranges will hence not expand linearly with warming, even for species at their northern distribution limits. Although less pronounced than in winter, summer ranges also expanded and more so under severe warming. Summer habitat suitability was positively correlated with landscape topography and ranges expanded more for females than males. Our study highlights the complexity of predicting future habitat suitability for conservation and management of size-dimorphic, migratory species under global warming.
Data from: Forest management adaptation to climate change: a Cornelian dilemma between drought resistance and soil macro-detritivore functional diversity
1. Global warming induces new constraints on forest ecosystems and requires forest management adaptation. The reduction in stand density is currently debated as a potential tool to face increasing summer drought risk by improving forest resistance to climate change-induced tree mortality. However, few studies have yet assessed the impacts of this management change on soil biodiversity. 2. We conducted a large-scale, multi-site assessment of the response of soil macro-detritivore assemblages and soil functioning to experimental manipulations of stand density. A total of 33 stands were studied covering a wide gradient of stand density, that is stand basal area from 2·5 to 43·7 m2 ha−1, stand age, that is 18–171 years old, and local abiotic context. 3. We observed contrasting responses as a function of both taxonomic and functional groupings. Exploratory analysis using causal diagrams, that is path analysis, highlights that these changes were mainly related to alterations in understorey vegetation, microclimatic and soil pH conditions. The response of soil macro-detritivore assemblages to stand density manipulation was consistent over the gradient of stand ages. 4. Among the litter-dwelling macro-detritivores, millipede abundance and diversity decreased with stand density reduction, while woodlice and epigeic earthworms were unaffected. Further, a shift in soil-dwelling earthworm community composition was observed in mull stands. Endogeic earthworm abundance showed a sharp increase with stand density reduction, which translated into an increase in soil respiration. In contrast, anecic earthworm abundance decreased and was strongly associated with a decline of the rate of forest floor turnover. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our study provides strong evidence that reductions of stand density will have substantial impacts on soil macro-detritivore assemblages and cascading effects on soil functioning, particularly in mull stands. Managing stand density of oak forests at an intermediate level, that is 25 m2 ha−1, appears to be best to optimize the trade-off between improving forest resistance to climate change and ensuring the conservation of functional diversity to preserve forest ecosystem functioning and stability.
Data from: Climate change upends selection on ornamentation in a wild bird
Secondary sexual traits have high heritabilities and are exposed to strong, environmentally sensitive selection, and so are expected to evolve rapidly in response to sustained environmental change. We examine the eco-evolutionary dynamics of ornament expression in a long-term study population of collared flycatchers, Ficedula albicollis, in which forehead patch size, which positively influences male reproductive success, declined markedly over 34 years. Annual fitness selection on forehead patch size switched from positive to negative during the study, a reversal that is accounted for by rising spring temperatures at the breeding site: highly ornamented males were selectively favoured following cold breeding seasons but selected against following warm breeding seasons. An 'individual animal model' describes a decline in the genetic values of breeding males during the study, which simulations showed was unlikely to result from drift alone. These results are thus consistent with adaptive evolution of a sexually selected trait in response to climate change.
Data from: Body size, developmental instability and climate change
Development is often temperature-dependent. We hypothesized smaller size and larger asymmetry with increasing temperatures. However, we also predicted associations with asymmetry to differ among traits that differ in their degree of functional importance (especially the functional wings in migratory birds were predicted to be more canalized), timing of development (skeletal (femur, tarsus and humerus) vs feather (wing and tail traits). We analyzed a large dataset of which we included species with at least 20 specimens resulting in 5533 asymmetry values in 1593 individuals from 66 species. There was a consistent significant decrease in size with temperature across all traits. Fluctuating asymmetry for wings and femur was on average lower, suggesting higher canalization, and it decreased with migration distance, while that was not the case for the other traits. Fluctuating asymmetry increased with increasing temperature for wings, but not for the other characters, where the different responses of different characters to temperature was significant. Since there was no significant three-way interaction between temperature, migration distance and character, the asymmetry-temperature response was similar in migratory and resident species. These findings imply that climate warming reduces size of all traits and decreases developmental instability of wings in birds.
Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe
<p>We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the 21<sup>st</sup> century in Europe.</p> <p>Here we present a set of raster files that contain discrete zones of climatic stability and instability, also referred to as hotspots and coldspots. Our analysis of future climatic stability was based on projected changes of nine climate variables selected to proxy key aspects of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. The underlying climate projection, including different indices, are available at <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/3952159#.YNWN_OgzaUl">https://zenodo.org/record/3952159#.YNWN_OgzaUl</a>. The cumulative change of all nine climate variables, termed Aggregate Climate Change (ACC), is used to identify regions of significantly higher or lower climatic stability (Getis-Ord Gi* p-value < 0.05) across Europe. We carry out this assessment at the continental and regional scales. While the continental assessment reports the large-scale latitudinal and orographic patterns of climatic stability, the regional assessment explores the residual ACC variation that remained after extracting the large-scale continental trend. The raster files present climatic features that were identified to persist in their location throughout the 21<sup>st</sup> century (i.e., in periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2100) and were supported by a majority of climate projections considered in this study. Specifically, we considered five GCM-RCM pairs driven by two RCP scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The targeted areas of climatic stability were required to be confirmed by four out of five climate models nested within each RCP, at least.</p> <p>The used naming convention is as follows:</p> <ul> <li>Scale – Global, Regional</li> <li>Type of the zone – HotSpot (zone of significantly low climatic stability), ColdSpot (zone of significantly high climatic stability)</li> <li>Driving RCP scenario – RCP45, RCP85</li> </ul> <p>Raster files with RCP indicated in their name refer to either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5. These files contain two values referring to the presence (1) or absence (0) of climatic stability areas:</p> <p>Global_HotSpots _RCP45</p> <p>Global_ColdSpots _RCP45</p> <p>Regional_HotSpots _RCP45</p> <p>Regional_ColdSpots _RCP45</p> <p>Global_HotSpots _RCP85</p> <p>Global_ColdSpots _RCP85</p> <p>Regional_HotSpots _RCP85</p> <p>Regional_ColdSpots _RCP85</p> <p>Raster files without RCP code in their name contain combinations of both RCPs. The cell values indicate absence (0), presence in RCP4.5 OR RCP8.5 (1), or presence in RCP4.5 AND RCP8.5 (2) of climatic stability areas:</p> <p>Global_HotSpots</p> <p>Global_ColdSpots</p> <p>Regional_HotSpots</p> <p>Regional_ColdSpots</p> <p>The format of raster files is tiff. All data are in the GCS_WGS_1984 geographic coordinate system.</p>
Data from: Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate
Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO2. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically-induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.
R-scripts for the calculation of HW and Bioclimatic models in: "Small vertebrate and mollusc community response to the Holocene environment and climate changes in the Kraków-Częstochowa Upland (Poland)"
<p>HW_Holocene: Tables and R script used for calculation of HW percentage values.</p> <p>PalBER_Bioclimaticmodel_modified: Tables and R script used for the calculation of the climate values through Bioclimatic model. Modified after Royer et al., 2020.</p>
Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change
Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire-regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30-yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P-PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire-regime responses to 21st-century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30-yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st-century climate change.
Data from: Blue mussel (Genus Mytilus) transcriptome response to simulated climate change in the Gulf of Maine
<p>The biogeochemistry of the Gulf of Maine is rapidly changing in response to a changing climate, including rising temperatures, acidification, and declining primary productivity. These impacts are projected to worsen over the next hundred years and will apply selective pressure on populations of marine calcifiers. This study investigates the transcriptome expression response to these changes in ecologically and economically important marine calcifiers, blue mussels. Wild mussels (<i>Mytilus edulis</i> and <i>M. trossulus</i>) were sampled from sites spanning the Gulf of Maine and exposed to two different biogeochemical water conditions: i. present-day conditions in the Gulf of Maine and ii. simulated future conditions that included elevated temperature, increased acidity, and decreased food supply. Patterns of gene expression were measured using RNA-seq from 24 mussel samples and contrasted between ambient and future conditions. The net calcification rate, a trait predicted to be under climate-induced stress, was measured for each individual over a 2-week exposure period and used as a covariate along with gene expression patterns. Generalized linear models, with and without the calcification rate, were used to identify differentially expressed transcripts between ambient and future conditions. The comparison revealed transcripts that likely comprise a core stress response characterized by the induction of molecular chaperones, genes involved in aerobic metabolism, and indicators of cellular stress. Furthermore, the model contrasts revealed transcripts that may be associated with individual variation in calcification rate and suggest possible biological processes that may have downstream effects on calcification phenotypes, such as zinc-ion binding and protein degradation. Overall, these findings contribute to the understanding of blue mussel adaptive responses to imminent climate change and suggest metabolic pathways are resilient in variable environments.</p>
Dataset for "Rapidly expanding lake heatwaves under climate change"
<p>Dataset for "Rapidly expanding lake heatwaves under climate change", and example code for calculating spatiotemporally connected lake heatwaves (fig2_zenodo.m). Each data file contains a binary 3d array (longitude vs latitude vs time) of heatwave occurrence (0 = no heatwave and 1 == heatwave), as well as the temperature anomaly at each time step. The files are separated per lake and per year. </p>
Data for spatial and temporal refugia for an insect population declining due to climate change
<p>Insect declines have been reported worldwide, although the particular causes of the declines may be complex and are poorly understood. Meadow spittlebugs were one of the most abundant insects in the coastal prairie along the California coast 40 years ago but have largely disappeared. Evidence links this decline to changing climatic conditions, which have reduced survival of eggs and neonates. We identified several refugia where meadow spittlebug populations have persisted amidst unfavorable conditions. Protection from desiccating winds was the common attribute of these refugia. Following a wet year, adult meadow spittlebugs were able to disperse from one refuge that we studied to recolonize coastal prairie habitats, although populations declined over the next two drier years. Because of their previous high abundance, loss of meadow spittlebugs is likely to affect the functioning of this widespread habitat, including energy transfer, their host plants, and their predators. In addition, meadow spittlebugs are unusual in having been the subject of extensive physiological and long-term ecological data, so they can serve as a bellwether species, indicating the effects of climate change.</p>
Widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under climate change
<p>Datasets of all data used to create each individual figure file in our manuscript.</p>
Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of wellbeing
<p>Systematic literature survey contains of 54784 documents</p> <p>This database was used by experts – sectoral teams and internal reviewers- to assess the demand-side mitigation strategies potential and wellbeing impacts. We set up the interactive database such that by clicking on each cell experts were guided to the associate dataset.</p>
Figure 4 in Will future anthropogenic climate change increase the potential distribution of the alien invasive Cuban treefrog (Anura: Hylidae)?
Figure 4. Maps of the potential distribution of O. septentrionalis as expected for 2020, 2050 and 2080 assuming A2a and B2a conditions. Maps show mean values of Maxent values derived from models projected onto CCCMA, CISRO and HADCM3 scenarios.
Figure 3 in Will future anthropogenic climate change increase the potential distribution of the alien invasive Cuban treefrog (Anura: Hylidae)?
Figure 3. Comparison between the known distribution of O. septentrionalis (A) (source: Johnson (2007)) and model prediction in Florida (B). Spread history of O. septentrionalis is indicated.
Figure 2 in Will future anthropogenic climate change increase the potential distribution of the alien invasive Cuban treefrog (Anura: Hylidae)?
Figure 2. Potential distribution of O. septentrionalis under current climate conditions within the Caribbean. Higher Maxent values suggest higher climatic suitability. Native records are indicated as points and invasive records as triangles.
Figure 1 in Will future anthropogenic climate change increase the potential distribution of the alien invasive Cuban treefrog (Anura: Hylidae)?
Figure 1. Comparison of climatic conditions at native and invasive records of Osteopilus septentrionalis. Native records used for model building are indicated in black, invasive records in grey.
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators
<p>Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.</p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.