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2,260 results for “Climatic change”
Data for: Testing the match-mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring 'peak' green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life-history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
Introduced annuals mediate climate-driven community change in Mediterranean prairies of the Pacific Northwest, USA
<p><b>Aim:</b> How climate change will alter plant functional group composition is a critical question given the well-recognized effects of plant functional groups on ecosystem services. While climate can have direct effects on different functional groups, indirect effects mediated through changes in biotic interactions have the potential to amplify or counteract direct climatic effects. As a result, identifying the underlying causes for climate effects on plant communities is important to conservation and restoration initiatives.</p> <p><b>Location: </b>Western Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington), USA.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Utilizing a three year experiment in three prairie sites across a 520 km latitudinal climate gradient, we manipulated temperature and precipitation and recorded plant cover each spring. We used structural equation models to examine how abiotic drivers (i.e., temperature, moisture, and soil nitrogen) controlled functional group cover, and how these groups in turn determined overall plant diversity.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Warming increased the cover of introduced annual species, causing subsequent declines in other functional groups and diversity. While we found direct effects of temperature and moisture on extant vegetation (i.e., native annuals, native perennials, and introduced perennials), these effects were typically amplified by introduced annuals. Competition for moisture and light or space, rather than nitrogen, were critical mechanisms of community change in this seasonally water-limited Mediterranean-climate system. Diversity declines were driven by reductions in native annual cover and increasing dominance by introduced annuals.</p> <p><b>Main Conclusions: </b>A shift toward increasing introduced annual dominance in this system may be akin to that previously experienced in California grasslands, resulting in the "Californication" of Pacific Northwest prairies. Such a phenomenon may challenge local land managers in their efforts to maintain species-rich and functionally diverse prairie ecosystems in the future.</p>
Impacts of climate change on species distribution patterns of Polyspora Sweet in China
<p>Supporting Information and four periods of environmental data for the manuscript (ECE-2021-12-01996). Species presence data for MaxEnt input.</p>
Data from: Niche width predicts extinction from climate change and vulnerability of tropical species
<p>Climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, especially to tropical species. Yet, why tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change remains unclear. Tropical species are thought to have narrower physiological tolerances to temperature, and they have already experienced a higher estimated frequency of climate-related local extinctions. These two patterns suggest that tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change because they have narrower thermal niche widths. However, no studies have tested whether species with narrower climatic niche widths for temperature have experienced more local extinctions, and if these narrower niche widths can explain the higher frequency of tropical local extinctions. Here, we test these ideas using resurvey data from 538 plant and animal species from 10 studies. We found that mean niche widths among species and the extent of climate change (increase in maximum annual temperatures) together explained most variation (>75%) in the frequency of local extinction among studies. Surprisingly, neither latitude nor occurrence in the tropics alone significantly predicted local extinction among studies, but latitude and niche widths were strongly inversely related. Niche width also significantly predicted local extinction among species, as well as among and (sometimes) within studies. Overall, niche width may offer a relatively simple and accessible predictor of the vulnerability of populations to climate change. Intriguingly, niche width has the best predictive power to explain extinction from global warming when it incorporates coldest yearly temperatures.</p>
Data for The missing risks of climate change
<p>This repository contains the data behind the quantitative figures (figures 1, 3, and 4) in Rising, James, et al. "The missing risks of climate change." <em>Nature</em> 610.7933 (2022): 643-651. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05243-6.</p> <p>The figures directory contains the figures (in their accepted paper form). The data directory contains CSV files with the associated data. The rows and columns are defined as follows:</p> <p> - fig1-mc.csv: Rows describe Monte Carlo draws describing the uncertainty for each scenario (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) and outcome variable (in the "variable" column). The "run" column describes the basis for each draw of the uncertainty (e.g., model used). The "unit" column provides the units for the "value" column. The "compound" column is TRUE if the rows report compounded uncertainty, and false if the uncertainty is only from the individual analysis stage.</p> <p> - fig3-zscores.csv: Each row is a grid cell across the globe, reporting z-scores for various hazards and the population from GPW v4.0 (https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/gpw-v4). The z-scores are calculated compared to the recent history (1980-2010) from either longer historical data from CRU TS, with the column prefix "hist.", or from SSP3-7.0 estimates from WorldClim bioclimatic variables for 2050, with the column prefix "ssp370.". Column suffixes describe various hazards: "wet" is average precipitation in the wettest month, "dry" is annual precipitation, "logwet" is as "wet" but evaluated in logs, "logdry" is as "dry" but evaluated in logs, "pcv" is precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), "hot" is the maximum temperature of the warmest month, and "cld" is the minimum temperature of the coldest month. "topcol" reports the column with the most extreme z-score (with the z-score in "topscore" and a label in "toplabel").</p> <p> - fig4-dmgfunc.csv: Monte Carlo draws of the uncertainty in number of people affected across 16 impacts, reported in "affected" as a fraction of the global population, for each temperature change from preindustrial, reported in "temp".</p> <p> - fig4-pdfs.csv: Monte Carlo draws of the uncertainty in the number of people affected for each of 16 impacts and four aggregates. The fraction of the global population affected in reported in "affected" for the temperature change from preindustrial reported in "temp". The impact is labeled in "name" and the aggregate category is reported in "rname".</p> <p>Additional details on the generation of these data are included in the SI of the paper.</p>
Preserving the woody plant tree of life in China under future climate and land-cover changes
<p><span>The tree of life (TOL) is severely threatened by climate and land-cover changes. Preserving the TOL is urgent, but has not been included in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Protected areas (PAs) are fundamental for biological conservation. However, we know little about the effectiveness of existing PAs in preserving the TOL of plants and how to prioritize PA expansion for better TOL preservation under future climate and land-cover changes. Here, using high-resolution distribution maps of 8732 woody species in China and phylogeny-based Zonation, we find that current PAs perform poorly in preserving the TOL </span><span>both at the present and in the 2070s</span><span>. The geographical coverage of TOL branches by current PAs is ca. 9%, and < 3% of the identified priority areas for preserving the TOL are currently protected. Interestingly, the geographical coverage of TOL branches by PAs will be improved from 9% to 52–79% by the identified priority areas for PA expansion. Human pressures in the identified priority areas are high, leading to high costs for future PA expansion. We thus suggest that besides nature reserves and national parks, other effective area-based conservation measures should be considered. Our study argues for the inclusion of preserving the TOL in the post-2020 conservation framework and provides references for decision-makers </span><span>to preserve the Earth's evolutionary history.</span></p>
RAPID Climate Change
RAPID Climate Change
Intermediate data belonging to "Process-based climate change assessment for European winds using EURO-CORDEX and global models"
<p>This dataset contains the intermediate results of Wohland (2022) that are needed to redo the analysis und produce the figures. It allows to bypass those steps that rely on access to the supercomputers at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). When using this data in academic work, please reference</p> <blockquote> <p>Jan Wohland, Process-based climate change assessment for European winds using EURO-CORDEX and global models, Environmental Research Letters (provisionally accepted on 28/11/2022), 2022</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Using this data to reproduce results</strong></p> <p>The data can be used together with the code provided in https://github.com/jwohland/kliwist_modelchain</p> <p>In the above mentioned github repository, there is a `run_all.py` script that repeats the analysis presented in Wohland (2022). After downloading and extracting this data, you can ignore the steps under "calculations", and begin with "plots".</p> <p><strong>Underlying data</strong></p> <p>The dataset draws on output from the CMIP5, CMIP6 and EURO-CORDEX initiatives. I thank the climate modeling groups for making their data openly available. In particular, I acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. I also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP). I also acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5 and CMIP6.</p> <p><strong>Funding</strong></p> <p>This work is part of the project "The influence of climate change on wind energy site assessments – KliWiSt" funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK).</p> <p><strong>References to raw data journal articles</strong></p> <blockquote> <p>Jacob, D. <em>et al.</em> EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. <em>Reg Environ Change</em> <strong>14</strong>, 563–578 (2014).</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. <em>Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.</em> <strong>93</strong>, 485–498 (2012).</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>Hurtt, G. C. <em>et al.</em> Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. <em>Climatic Change</em> <strong>109</strong>, 117–161 (2011).</p> </blockquote>
Changes in microbial community structure and functioning with elevation are linked to local soil characteristics as well as climatic variables
<p>Mountain forests are important carbon stocks but are threatened by increased insect outbreaks and climate driven forest conversion. Soil microorganisms play an eminent role in nutrient cycling in forests and form the basis of soil food webs. Uncovering the driving factors shaping microbial communities and functioning at mountainsides worldwide is of importance to better understand their dynamics at local and global scales. We investigated microbial communities and their drivers along an elevational gradient of primary forests at Changbai Mountain, China. We analysed substrate-induced respiration and phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) in litter and two soil layers at seven sites. In the litter layer the increase in microbial biomass (Cmic) as well as in stress indicator ratios with elevation were negatively correlated with Ca concentrations indicating increased nutritional stress in high microbial biomass communities at sites with lower Ca availability. PLFA profiles in litter separated low and high elevations, this was less pronounced in soil, suggesting that leaflitter functions as buffer for soil microbial communities. Annual variations in temperature correlated with PLFA profiles in all layers, while annual variations in precipitation correlated with PLFA profiles in upper soil only. Furthermore, the availability of resources, soil moisture, Ca concentrations and pH structured the microbial communities. Pronounced changes in Cmic and stress indicator ratios in the litter layer between pine dominated (800 – 1100 m) and spruce dominated (1250 – 1700 m) forests indicated a shift in the structure and functioning of microbial communities between forest types. The study highlights strong changes in microbial community structure and functioning along elevational gradients, but also shows that these changes and their driving factors vary between layers. Besides annual variations in temperature and precipitation, carbon accumulation and nitrogen acquisition shape changes in microbial communities with elevation at Changbai Mountain.</p>
Replication package for: Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation
<p>Contains raw data and replication code for the following paper:</p> <p>Casey, Gregory (forthcoming). "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation." Review of Economic Studies.</p>
Data from: Microclimate-based species distribution models in complex terrain indicate widespread cryptic refugia under climate change
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><i>Aim: </i>Species' climatic niches may be poorly predicted by regional climate estimates used in species distribution models (SDMs) due to microclimatic buffering of local conditions. Here, we compare SDMs generated using a locally validated below-canopy microclimate model to those based on interpolated weather station data at two spatial scales to determine the effects of scale, topography, and forest cover on potential future ground-level warming and species distributions.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing"><i>Location:</i> Great Smoky Mountains National Park (2090 km<sup>2</sup>; NC, TN, USA)</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing"><i>Time period: </i>1970 – 2006</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing"><i>Major taxa:</i> Vascular plant species of the Southern Appalachians</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing"><i>Methods:</i> We compared the fit and predictions of SDMs generated using a database of plant occurrences and three climate models: macroclimate (1 km, WorldClim), fine-scale (30 m) interpolation of macroclimate with elevation, and fine-scale below-canopy microclimate from a ground-level sensor network.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing"><i>Results: </i>We found that, although SDM fit was similar across models, microclimate-derived SDMs predicted substantially greater species persistence with 4 °C of regional warming, with a difference of 50% of the species pool in some areas. Microclimate SDMs predicted higher stability of mid-elevation species, particularly in thermally buffered areas near streams, and critically, less change in species composition at high elevation. In contrast, predictions of macroclimate and interpolation models were similar despite improved resolution.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing"><i>Main conclusions:</i> Our results demonstrate that careful selection of climate drivers, including local near-ground validation rather than interpolation, is critical for projecting distributions. They also suggest that some species at risk from climate change might persist, even with 4 °C of macroclimate warming, in cryptic refugia buffered by microclimate, pointing to the roles of forest cover and topography in explaining slower-than-expected changes in understory communities. However, certain species, such as those currently occurring on low-elevation ridges that are sensitive to atmospheric changes, may be at more risk than macroclimate or interpolated SDMs suggest.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing"> </p>
Copernicus Climate Change Service data for the pypsa-entsoe Github repository
<p>Files needed for the https://github.com/matteodefelice/pypsa-entsoe repository.</p>
Staying in situ or shifting range under ongoing climate change: A case of an endemic herb in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains across elevational gradients
<p><span><strong>Aim</strong>:</span><span> How species respond to ongoing climate change has been a hot research topic, especially with the controversy in shifting range (movement) or persisting in local habitat (<em>in situ</em>) as the primary response. Assessing the relative roles of range shifts, phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation helps us predict the evolutionary fate of species. We aim to explore the evolutionary strategies of plants under climate change from a keystone herb in alpine ecosystems, <em>Mirabilis</em> <em>himalaica</em>, along its elevational gradient.</span></p> <p><span><strong>Location</strong>:</span><span> Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains, China.</span></p> <p><span><strong>Methods</strong>: </span><span>We combined evidence from population genomics and ecological data in both space and time to investigate the state of "staying" or "moving". We identified migration events by assessing historical and contemporary gene flow, and changes in species distribution. Morphological variation was compared by measuring five traits using specimen data. Moreover, we explored climate-driven genetic variation and local selection regimes acting on populations in the alpine landscape along an elevational gradient.</span></p> <p><span><strong>Results</strong>: </span><span>Our results argue that staying <em>in situ</em> by morphological variation and local genetic evolution rather than range shifting plays an important role in <em>M</em>. <em>himalaica</em> response to climate change. We first found trace evidence of upward or climatic-driven shifting along an elevational gradient, although asymmetric gene flow was restricted within microenvironments of mid-elevational populations. Furthermore, morphological variation comparisons revealed clinal variation, as resource allocation showed a declining pattern in vegetative growth but increased reproductive growth with increasing elevation. Outlier tests and environment association analyses indicated adaptative loci primarily related to thermal-driven selection and continuous adaptations to high elevation in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains. </span></p> <p><span><strong>Main conclusions</strong>:</span><span> Our findings show <em>M</em>. <em>himalaica</em> may persist in local habitats rather than shifting range under climate change, exhibiting a low risk of genomic vulnerability in current habitats. This study has important implications for improving our understanding of the evolutionary response in alpine </span><span>plants to climate change.</span></p>
Data from: Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change
<p>Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change—increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.</p>
Supplementary materials and data: Climate change in the Arctic: testing the poleward expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases
<p>This accompanies the article "Climate change in the Arctic: testing the poleward expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases" that has been accepted for publication in Global Change Biology. The file contains the supplementary materials for the article including the raw microsatellite genotype data and a link to the files containing the serological data and analyses.</p>
The climatic drivers of long-term population changes in rainforest montane birds
<p>Climate-driven biodiversity erosion is escalating at an alarming rate. The pressure imposed by climate change is exceptionally high in tropical ecosystems, where species adapted to narrow environmental ranges exhibit strong physiological constraints. Despite the observed detrimental effect of climate change on ecosystems at a global scale, our understanding of the extent to which multiple climatic drivers affect population dynamics is limited. Here, we disentangle the impact of different climatic stressors on 47 rainforest birds inhabiting the mountains of the Australian Wet Tropics using hierarchical population models. We estimate the effect of spatiotemporal changes in temperature, precipitation, heatwaves, droughts, and cyclones on the population dynamics of rainforest birds between 2000–2016. We find a strong effect of warming and changes in rainfall patterns across the elevational-segregated bird communities, with lowland populations benefiting from increasing temperature and precipitation, while upland species show an inverse strong negative response to the same drivers. Additionally, we find a negative effect of heatwaves on lowland populations, a pattern associated with the observed distribution of these extreme events across elevations. In contrast, cyclones and droughts have a marginal effect on spatiotemporal changes in rainforest bird communities, suggesting a species-specific response unrelated to the elevational gradient. This study demonstrated the importance of unravelling the drivers of climate change impacts on population changes, providing significant insight into the mechanisms accelerating climate-induced biodiversity degradation.</p>
Data and GrADS scripts for "Changes in March mean snow water equivalent since the mid-twentieth century and the contributing factors in reanalyses and CMIP6 climate models", submitted to The Cryosphere
<p>Data and GrADS (Grid Analysis and Display System) scripts for reproducing the figures and numerical results included in the manuscript "Changes in March mean snow water equivalent since the mid-twentieth century and the contributing factors in reanalyses and CMIP6 climate models". Revised for The Cryosphere in March 2023.</p> <p>In addition to the README file, there are two zipped archives:</p> <p>swe_trends.zip (2.3 GB) includes both the data (mostly as GrADS binaries), the GrADS data descriptor files and the scripts.</p> <p>swe_trends_no_data.zip (74 kB) includes just the scripts and the data descriptor files.</p> <p>Please see the README file for further details on the content and use of the archives.</p>
Data for "Energy Surplus and Atmosphere – Land-Surface "Tug of War" Induced by Climate Change Control Future Evapotranspiration"
<p>USGS gauges used in manuscript "<strong>Energy Surplus and An Atmosphere-Land-Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration"</strong>. USGS_CTL15_Gage.mat contains the USGS gauge ID, and one can use retrieve_daily_streamflow.m to download the corresponding streamflow time series. </p>
Data for: Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change
<p>Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling both individually and when combined favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19–35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive net calcium carbonate production by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without <span>symbiont adaptive capacity,</span> the number of coral reefs with positive net calcium carbonate production drops to 9–13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive net calcium carbonate production of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).</p>
Future climate change accelerates the invasive rhythm of alien marine species: new insights into the invasive potential of the world's aquaculture species red drum Sciaenops ocellatus
<p>This article accompanies the article "<strong>Integrating species distribution modeling, stable isotope and transcriptomic analysis provides insights into eco-position competition for alien red drum <em>Sciaenops ocellatus</em></strong>". The file contains supplementary material to the article.</p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
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DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.