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opencc-zeroMay 2023View details →

Giant panda distribution ranges in the Liangshan Mountains

Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species is necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear-edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to 1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, 2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the 2nd (1988) to the 3rd (2001) surveys (2–3 Interval) and 3rd to the 4th (2013) survey (3–4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (The Extremely Gradient Boosting), and 3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the 2nd survey (k = 1.050), improved by the 3rd survey (k = 0.97), but got worse by the 4th survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that more study is required to understand the micro-environment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of Giant Panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear-edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.

opencc-zeroMay 2023View details →

Niche breadth explains the range size of European-centred butterflies, but dispersal ability does not

Aim: The breadth of ecological niches and dispersal abilities have long been discussed as important determinants of species' range sizes. However, studies directly comparing the relative effects of both factors are rare, taxonomically biased and revealed inconsistent results. Location: Europe. Time period: Cenozoic. Major taxa: Butterflies, Lepidoptera. Methods: We relate climate, diet, and habitat niche breadth and two indicators of dispersal ability, wingspan and a dispersal tendency index, to the global range size of 369 European-centred butterfly species. The relative effects of these five predictors and their variation across the butterfly phylogeny were assessed by means of phylogenetic generalized least squares models and phylogenetically weighted regressions, respectively. Results: Climate niche breadth was the most important single predictor, followed by habitat and diet niche breadth, while dispersal tendency and wingspan showed no relation to species' range size. All predictors together explained 59% of the variation in butterfly range size. However, the effects of each predictor varied considerably across families and genera. Main conclusions: Range sizes of European-centred butterflies are strongly correlated with ecological niche breadth but apparently independent of dispersal ability. The magnitude of range size – niche breadth relationships is not stationary across the phylogeny and is often negatively correlated across the different dimensions of the ecological niche. This variation limits the generalizability of range size–trait relationships across broad taxonomic groups.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2023View details →

Precipitation short-range forecasting verification dataset

Verification files for the Verif program. See https://github.com/WFRT/verif for details.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2023View details →

Wind speed short-range forecasting verification dataset

Verification files for the Verif program. See https://github.com/WFRT/verif for details.

A Great Escape: resource availability and density-dependence shape population dynamics along trailing range edges

Populations along geographical range limits are often exposed to unsuitable climate and low resource availability relative to core populations. As such, there has been a renewed focus on understanding the factors that determine range limits to better predict how species will respond to global change. Using recent theory on range limits and classical understanding of density dependence, we evaluated the influence of resource availability on the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus along its trailing range edge. We estimated variation in population density, habitat use, survival, and parasite loads to test the Great Escape Hypothesis (GEH), i.e. that density dependence determines, in part, a species' persistence along trailing edges. We found that variability in resource availability affected density and population fluctuations and led to trade-offs in survival for snowshoe hare populations in the northeastern USA. Hares living in resource-limited environments had lower and less variable population density, yet higher survival and lower parasitism compared to populations living in resource-rich environments. We suggest that density-dependent dynamics, elicited by resource availability, provide hares a unique survival advantage and partly explain persistence along their trailing edge. We hypothesize that this low-density escape from predation and parasitism occurs for other prey species along trailing edges, but the extent to which it occurs is likely conditional on the quality of matrix habitat. Our work indicates that biotic factors play an important role in shaping species' trailing edges and more detailed examination of non-climatic factors is warranted to better inform conservation and management decisions.

Winter range shifts and their associations with species traits are heterogeneous in eastern North American birds

Many species' distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Many distributional shifts are predictably poleward or higher in elevation, but heterogeneity in the rate and direction of shifts both within and between species appears to be common. We found high heterogeneity in the trajectory of winter range shifts for 65 species of birds across eastern North America and in the different traits and trait interactions associated with these shifts across the spatial scales we examined. We used data from the Christmas Bird Count to quantify the trajectory of winter latitudinal center of abundance range shifts over four decades (1980–2019) for 65 species of songbirds and woodpeckers in North America, both across eastern North America (ENA) as a whole and for the Atlantic (ATL) and Mississippi (MISS) flyways separately. We then used linear models and AICc model selection to test whether species traits could explain variation in range shifts or flyway discrepancies. Across ENA, most species showed northward latitudinal range shifts, but some showed no latitudinal shift while others shifted southwards. Amongst ATL and MISS, we documented both within- and between-species differences in the rate and direction of latitudinal shifts, complicating the results from across ENA. No single trait emerged as a dominant driver of range shift differences at the ENA and flyway scales. Migration strategy interacted with insectivory to explain variation at the largest spatial scale (ENA), whereas frugivory and mean winter latitude explained much of the variation in ATL and MISS, respectively. Exploring heterogeneity in range shifts within and between species, and in the associations between range shifts and life history traits, will help us better understand the mechanisms that mediate differing responses to environmental change and predict which species will be better able to adapt to those changes.

Reductions in home-range size and social interactions among dehorned black rhinoceroses (Diceros bicornis)

<div> Poaching for horns and tusks is driving declines of megaherbivores worldwide, including the critically endangered African black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis). By proactively dehorning entire rhinoceros populations, conservationists aim to deter poaching and prevent species loss. However, such conservation interventions may have hidden and underestimated effects on animals' behavior and ecology. Here, we combine >15 y of black rhino–monitoring data across 10 South African game reserves, comprising >24,000 sightings of 368 individuals, to determine the consequences of dehorning for black rhino space use and social interactions. While preventative dehorning at these reserves coincided with a nationwide decrease in black rhino mortality from poaching and did not infer increased natural mortality, dehorned black rhinos decreased their home range area by, on average, 11.7 km2 (45.5%) and were 37% less likely to engage in social encounters. We conclude that dehorning black rhinos as an antipoaching measure alters their behavioral ecology, although the potential population-level effects of these changes remain to be determined. </div>

Figure 26 in A new subspecies of Arctic Apollo - Parnassius arcticus (Eisner, 1968) (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) from the Arga-Tas Range (North-Eastern Yakutia)

Figure 26. Detailed distributional map of P. arcticus arbugaevi and P. arcticus shavlovi.

Figures 20−21 in A new subspecies of Arctic Apollo - Parnassius arcticus (Eisner, 1968) (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) from the Arga-Tas Range (North-Eastern Yakutia)

Figures 20−21. Landscapes on the Arga-Tas Range (photo by Y. Bakhaev).

Figure 23 in A new subspecies of Arctic Apollo - Parnassius arcticus (Eisner, 1968) (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) from the Arga-Tas Range (North-Eastern Yakutia)

Figure 23. Host plants of P. arcticus shavlovi: Corydalis gorodkovii (photo by Y. Bakhaev)

Figure 22. P in A new subspecies of Arctic Apollo - Parnassius arcticus (Eisner, 1968) (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) from the Arga-Tas Range (North-Eastern Yakutia)

Figure 22. P. arcticus shavlovi (male) on the flower of Smelowskia jacutica (photo by Y. Bakhaev).

Figure 19. P in A new subspecies of Arctic Apollo - Parnassius arcticus (Eisner, 1968) (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) from the Arga-Tas Range (North-Eastern Yakutia)

Figure 19. P. arcticus shavlovi in nature, female (photo by Yu. Bakhaev).

Figure 18. P in A new subspecies of Arctic Apollo - Parnassius arcticus (Eisner, 1968) (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) from the Arga-Tas Range (North-Eastern Yakutia)

Figure 18. P. arcticus shavlovi in nature, male (photo by Yu. Bakhaev).

Data for: Using distribution models to identify range shifts of four Acroneuria Pictet, 1841 (Plecoptera: Perlidae) species in the Midwest USA

Regional faunal assessments of stoneflies in the United States Midwest (herein defined as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin) indicate increasing imperilment resulting from human disturbance and climate change. Large-bodied Perlid stoneflies with multivoltine life cycles are among the most at risk for regional extirpation, with losses reported in several midwestern states. Species distribution modeling was undertaken to describe distribution shifts for four widespread riverine species: Acroneuria abnormis (Newman, 1838), A. frisoni Stark & Brown, 1991, A. internata (Walker, 1852) and A. lycorias (Newman, 1839). The distribution modeling algorithm MaxEnt was selected to predict both the historical (i.e., pre-1960) and contemporaneous distributions for each species using separate occurrence datasets. These models permit the identification of suitable habitat loss through range contractions associated with human disturbance. Predictions of suitable habitat losses were recorded for multiple species but were greatest for A. abnormis and A. internata. These models serve to guide future collection efforts and to further describe patterns of regional biodiversity loss. The data presented within this dataset contain the occurrence data used for modeling with distinction between temporal periods modeled.

Data from: To eat, or not to eat: A phantom decoy affects information-gathering behavior by a free-ranging mammalian herbivore

When foraging, making appropriate food choices is crucial to an animal's fitness. Classic foraging ecology theories assume animals choose food of greatest benefit based on their absolute value across multiple dimensions. Consequently, poorer options are considered irrelevant alternatives that should not influence decision-making among better options. But heuristic studies demonstrate that irrelevant alternatives (termed decoys) can influence decisions of some animals, indicating they use a relative rather than absolute evaluation system. Our aim was to test whether a decoy influenced the decision-making process – i.e. information-gathering and food choice – of a free-ranging mammalian herbivore. We tested swamp wallabies, Wallabia bicolor, comparing their behavior towards, and choice of, two available food options over time in the absence or presence of the decoy. We used a phantom decoy—unavailable option—and ran two trials in different locations and seasons. Binary preferences (decoy absent) for the two available food options differed between trials. Irrespective of this difference, across both trials the presence of the decoy resulted in animals more likely to overtly investigate available food options. But the decoy only shifted food choice, weakly, in one trial. Our results indicate that the decoy influenced the information-gathering behavior during decision-making, providing first evidence that decoys can affect decision-making process of free-ranging mammalian herbivores in an ecologically realistic context. It is premature to say these findings confirm the use of relative evaluation systems. Whether the foraging outcome is more strongly affected by other decoys, food dimensions, or ecological contexts, is yet to be determined.

opencc-by-4.0Mar 2023View details →

A digital GIS update to the classic Ulbrich 1930 map of muskrat (Undatra zibethica) population range expansion in Central Europe

This dataset is a digital version of a seminal dispersal data set of muskrat spread in Central Europe. We obtained and scanned an original copy of Ulbrich (1930), creating a digital image file, which we then geo-referenced in Arc Gis 10.2. The data herein contains metadata explaining the conversion process, necessary images to geo-reference the map, reference points used to "fix" the dispersal map to a map of present-day Europe, intermediate files (points and polygons produced when tracing the population ranges), and the final spatial dataset.   Reference to the original data:  Ulbrich, Johannes.  1930.  Die Bisamratte; lebenweise, gang ihrer ausbreitung in Europa, wirtschaftliche bedeutung und bekampfung.  Heinrich, Dresden.

Gray wolf range in the western Great Lakes region under forecasted land use and climate change

Land use and climate alter species distributions worldwide, and detecting and understanding how species ranges shift can facilitate conservation planning and action. Following extirpation from most of the contiguous USA, gray wolves (Canis lupus) have partially recolonized former range in the western Great Lakes region, but it is unknown how land use and climate change may alter amounts of wolf habitat. Using wolf observation data collected during winters 2017–2020 in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, we created ensemble models to predict how land use and climate change may affect the amount of wolf habitat within these states. A projection model for the western Great Lakes region suggested three of four scenarios of land use and climate change will lead to 9–35% increases in wolf habitat, while a solely climate-based projection model supported our expectation that changes in climate, in isolation, will have limited effect on current wolf range. Our results support stable or increasing amounts of wolf habitat in the western Great Lakes region during the 21st century, suggesting limited or no adverse effects on the current distribution or further recolonization of wolves. Our findings can inform policy development regarding wolf conservation, and identify areas where recolonization is plausible, thus where promoting human-wolf co-existence is most pertinent.

The relative role of climate and biotic interactions in shaping the range limits of a neotropical orchid

Aim The center-periphery hypothesis (CPH) explains the decline of species abundance towards range limits and how this is driven by increasing ecological marginality. So far, most studies testing the CPH have focused on abiotic factors contributing to marginality, while the role of biotic interactions in limiting species distribution has been neglected. Here, we investigate both drivers' roles in potentially restricting an orchid's range along a broad environmental gradient. Location Brazilian Atlantic Forest and Pampas biomes (south and southeastern Brazil) Taxa Sand dune orchid Epidendrum fulgens (Orchidaceae). Methods We integrated empirical data on geographical distribution, pollinator richness, and niche models to investigate whether range limits match predicted niche limits and whether habitat suitability declines towards low- and high-latitude species ranges. In addition, we used genetic-derived metrics to test whether populations at range edges are indeed small and isolated, as predicted by the CPH. Results Our results show that ecological conditions become more marginal towards the edges of the E. fulgens range, with an abrupt variation in climate. We also found that the climate has primarily shaped the species' high-latitude limit, while pollinator richness increases habitat suitability of E. fulgens in the low-latitude edge range, likely explaining the species' persistence. Genetic diversity within E. fulgens populations decreases while genetic differentiation increases towards both margins, although with a more consistent pattern for the low-latitudinal component. Main conclusions Our results corroborate most of the predictions associated with CPH, highlighting distinct factors limiting geographical distribution at the opposite margins of this latitudinal and narrowly-distributed species. This study is a first step towards understanding the relative role of climate and biotic interactions in shaping the range limits of coastal species, with significant potential for informing conservation practices.

opencc-zeroJul 2023View details →

Geographic patterns in range sizes and their drivers of endemic angiosperms in China

Geographic range size of endemic species is the most important indicator of species' vulnerability to extinction and conservation prioritization, yet variation in range size among species and across space has been relatively understudied. We investigated the variations and geographic patterns of the range sizes of 9,898 angiosperm species endemic to China and compared them with effects of historical and contemporary climate, physiological tolerances of species and species functional traits associated with dispersal ability (including growth form, fruit type and sexual system) on range size variations. Our results revealed that narrow-ranged species are clustered in Southwest China where angiosperm species richness peaks. Winter temperature had the strongest and most negative effects on the range size variations of narrow-ranged species across space and species, while climate seasonality had the strongest and most positive effects on the range size variations of wide-ranged species across space and species. Climate also influenced species range size indirectly via its effects on species' functional traits associated with dispersal ability. Range size of all species, narrow-ranged, and wide-ranged species showed little phylogenetic signal, suggesting that phylogenetic conservatism plays a very weak role in range size variations. Our results show that the range size of angiosperm species endemic to China is driven by both extrinsic spatio-temporal environmental factors and intrinsic species' traits that allow species to cope with environment change.