Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Matching habitat choice promotes species persistence under climate change

Species may survive under contemporary climate change by either shifting their range or adapting locally to the warmer conditions. Theoretical and empirical studies recently underlined that dispersal, the central mechanism behind these responses, may depend on the match between an individuals' phenotype and local environment. Such matching habitat choice is expected to induce an adaptive gene flow, but it now remains to be studied whether this local process could promote species' responses to climate change. Here, we investigate this by developing an individual-based model including either random dispersal or temperature-dependent matching habitat choice. We monitored population composition and distribution through space and time under climate change. Relative to random dispersal, matching habitat choice induced an adaptive gene flow that lessened spatial range loss during climate warming by improving populations' viability within the range (i.e. limiting range fragmentation) and by facilitating colonization of new habitats at the cold margin. The model even predicted in some cases range contraction under random dispersal but range expansion under optimal matching habitat choice. These benefits of matching habitat choice for population persistence mostly resulted from adaptive immigration decision and were greater for populations with larger dispersal distance and higher emigration probability. We also found that environmental stochasticity resulted in suboptimal matching habitat choice, decreasing the benefits of this dispersal mode under climate change. However population persistence was still better under suboptimal matching habitat choice than under random dispersal. Our results highlight the urgent need to implement more realistic mechanisms of dispersal such as matching habitat choice into models predicting the impacts of ongoing climate change on biodiversity.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Genomic evidence for role of inversion 3RP of Drosophila melanogaster in facilitating climate change adaptation

Chromosomal inversion polymorphisms are common in animals and plants, and recent models suggest that alternative arrangements spread by capturing different combinations of alleles acting additively or epistatically to favour local adaptation. It is also thought that inversions typically maintain favoured combinations for a long time by suppressing recombination between alternative chromosomal arrangements. Here, we consider patterns of linkage disequilibrium and genetic divergence in an old inversion polymorphism in Drosophila melanogaster (In(3R)Payne) known to be associated with climate change adaptation and a recent invasion event into Australia. We extracted, karyotyped and sequenced whole chromosomes from two Australian populations, so that changes in the arrangement of the alleles between geographically separated tropical and temperate areas could be compared. Chromosome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis revealed strong LD within the region spanned by In(3R)Payne. This genomic region also showed strong differentiation between the tropical and the temperate populations, but no differentiation between different karyotypes from the same population, after controlling for chromosomal arrangement. Patterns of differentiation across the chromosome arm and in gene ontologies were enhanced by the presence of the inversion. These data support the notion that inversions are strongly selected by bringing together combinations of genes, but it is still not clear if such combinations act additively or epistatically. Our data suggest that climatic adaptation through inversions can be dynamic, reflecting changes in the relative abundance of different forms of an inversion and ongoing evolution of allelic content within an inversion.

Data from: Introduced garden plants are strong competitors of native and alien residents under simulated climate change

1) Most invasive plants have been originally introduced for horticultural purposes. Still, most alien garden plants have not naturalized yet, probably due in part to inadequate climatic conditions. Climate change may alter this, but few experimental studies have addressed this for non-naturalized alien garden plants, and those that have, addressed only singular aspects of climate change. 2) In a greenhouse experiment, we examined the performance of nine non-naturalized alien herbaceous garden plants of varying climatic origins in response to simulated climate warming and reduced water availability, in a factorial design, as projected for southern Germany. To assess their invasion potential, we grew the species in competition with resident native and already-naturalized alien species. 3) Reduced watering negatively affected non-naturalized garden plants, as well as the native and naturalized competitors, particularly at higher temperatures. However, non-naturalized aliens performed better relative to competitors when temperatures increased. Naturalized and native resident competitor responses to climate change were both negative, but across climate treatments, non-naturalized aliens, irrespective of their climatic origins, performed better against native than against naturalized competitors. 4) Synthesis. We conclude that relative performance compared to resident species may increase for non-naturalized alien garden plants under climate change, as resident species become less competitive. Ongoing climate change is therefore likely to promote naturalization of commonly-planted alien herbaceous species.

Data from: Effects of temperature and drought on early life stages in three species of butterflies: mortality of early life stages as a key determinant of vulnerability to climate change?

Anthropogenic climate change poses substantial challenges to biodiversity conservation. Well-documented responses include phenological and range shifts, and declines in cold but increases in warm-adapted species. Thus, some species will suffer while others will benefit from ongoing change, although the biological features determining the prospects of a given species under climate change are largely unknown. By comparing three related butterfly species of different vulnerability to climate change, we show that stress tolerance during early development may be of key importance. The arguably most vulnerable species showed the strongest decline in egg hatching success under heat and desiccation stress, and similar pattern also for hatchling mortality. Research, especially on insects, is often focussed on the adult stage only. Thus, collating more data on stress tolerance in different life stages will be of crucial importance for enhancing our abilities to predict the fate of particular species and populations under ongoing climate change.

opencc-zeroSep 2019View details →

Data from: Altered leaf elemental composition with climate change is linked to reductions in photosynthesis, growth and survival in a semiarid shrubland

Climate change will increase heat and drought stress in many dryland areas, which could reduce soil nutrient availability for plants and aggravate nutrient limitation of primary productivity. Any negative impacts of climate change on foliar nutrient contents would be expected to negatively affect the photosynthetic capacity, water use efficiency and overall fitness of dryland vegetation. We conducted a four-year manipulative experiment using open top chambers and rainout shelters to assess the impacts of warming (~2ºC, W), rainfall reduction (~30%, RR) and their combination (W+RR) on the nutrient status and ecophysiological performance of six native shrub species of contrasting phylogeny in a semiarid ecosystem. Leaf nutrient status and gas exchange were assessed yearly, whereas biomass production and survival were measured at the end of the study. Warming (W and W+RR) advanced shoot growth phenology and reduced foliar macro- (N, P, K) and micronutrient (Cu, Fe, Zn) concentrations (by 8-18% and 14-56%, respectively), net photosynthetic rate (32%), aboveground biomass production (28-39%) and survival (23-46%). Decreased photosynthesis and growth in W and W+RR plants was primarily linked to enhanced nutritional constraints on carbon fixation. Poor leaf nutrient status in W and W+RR plants partly decoupled carbon assimilation from water flux and led to drastic reductions in water use efficiency (WUEi; ~41%) across species. The RR treatment moderately decreased foliar macro- and micronutrients (6-17%, except for Zn) and biomass production (22%). The interactive impacts of warming and rainfall reduction (W+RR treatment) on plant performance were generally smaller than expected from additive single‐factor effects. Synthesis: Large decreases in plant nutrient pool size and productivity combined with increased mortality during hotter droughts will reduce vegetation cover and nutrient retention capacity, thereby disrupting biogeochemical processes and accelerating dryland degradation with impending climate change. Increased macro- and micronutrient co-limitation of photosynthesis with forecasted climate change conditions may offset any gains in WUEi and productivity derived from anthropogenic CO2 elevation, thereby increasing dryland vegetation vulnerability to drought stress in a warmer and drier climate. The generalized reduction in leaf nutrient contents with warming compromises plant nutritional quality for herbivores, with potential cascading negative effects across trophic levels.

opencc-zeroMay 2020View details →

Data from: Adaptive genetic potential and plasticity of trait variation in the foundation prairie grass Andropogon gerardii across the US Great Plains' climate gradient: Implications for climate change and restoration

Plant response to climate depends on a species' adaptive potential. To address this, we used reciprocal gardens to detect genetic and environmental plasticity effects on phenotypic variation and combined with genetic analyses. Four reciprocal garden sites were planted with three regional ecotypes of Andropogon gerardii, a dominant Great Plains prairie grass, using dry, mesic, wet ecotypes originating from western KS to Illinois that span 500 to 1,200 mm rainfall year-1. We aimed to answer: (1) What is the relative role of genetic constraints and phenotypic plasticity in controlling phenotypes? 2) When planted in the home site, is there a trait syndrome for each ecotype? 3) How are genotypes and phenotypes structured by climate? (4) What are implications of these results for response to climate change and use of ecotypes for restoration? Surprisingly, we did not detect consistent local adaptation. Rather, we detected co-gradient variation primarily for most vegetative responses. All ecotypes were stunted in western KS. Eastward, the wet ecotype was increasingly robust relative to other ecotypes. In contrast, fitness showed evidence for local adaptation in wet and dry ecotypes with wet and mesic ecotypes producing little seed in western KS. Earlier flowering time in the dry ecotype suggests adaptation to end of season drought. Considering ecotype traits in home site, the dry ecotype was characterized by reduced canopy area and diameter, short plants, and low vegetative biomass and putatively adapted to water limitation. The wet ecotype was robust, tall with high biomass and wide leaves putatively adapted for the highly competitive, light-limited Eastern Great Plains. Ecotype differentiation was supported by random forest classification and PCA. We detected genetic differentiation and outlier genes associated primarily with precipitation. We identified candidate gene GA1 for which allele frequency associated with plant height. Sourcing of climate adapted ecotypes should be considered for restoration.

Data from: Linking phenological events in migratory passerines with a changing climate: 50 years in the Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania

Advanced timing of both seasonal migration and reproduction in birds has been strongly associated with a warming climate for many bird species. Phenological responses to climate linking these stages may ultimately impact fitness. We analyzed five decades of banding data from 17 migratory bird species to investigate 1) how spring arrival related to timing of breeding, 2) if the interval between arrival and breeding has changed with increasing spring temperatures, and 3) whether arrival timing or breeding timing best predicted local productivity. Four of 17 species, all mid- to long-distance migrants, hatched young earlier in years when migrants arrived earlier to the breeding grounds (~1:1 day advancement). The interval between arrival on breeding grounds and appearance of juveniles shortened with warmer spring temperatures for 12 species (1-6 days for every 1ºC increase) and over time for seven species (1-8 days per decade), suggesting that some migratory passerines adapt to climate change by laying more quickly after arrival or reducing the time from laying to fledging. We found more support for the former, that the rate of reproductive advancement was higher than that for arrival in warm years. Timing of spring arrival and breeding were both poor predictors of avian productivity for most migrants analyzed. Nevertheless, we found evidence that fitness benefits may occur from shifts to earlier spring arrival for the multi-brooded Song Sparrow. Our results uniquely demonstrate that co-occurring avian species are phenologically plastic in their response to climate change on their breeding grounds. If migrants continue to show a weaker response to temperatures during migration than breeding, and the window between arrival and optimal breeding shortens further, biological constraints to plasticity may limit the ability of species to adapt successfully to future warming.

opencc-zeroDec 2011View details →

Data from: Influences of past climatic changes on historical population structure and demography of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus)

Climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene have greatly influenced the distribution and connectivity of many organisms, leading to extinctions but also generating biodiversity. While the effects of such changes have been extensively studied in the terrestrial environment, studies focusing on the marine realm are still scarce. Here we used sequence data from one mitochondrial and five nuclear loci to assess the potential influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on the phylogeography and demographic history of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus). Population samples representing the three major morphotypes of Delphinus were obtained from ten oceanic regions. Our results suggest that short-beaked common dolphins are likely to have originated in the eastern Indo-Pacific Ocean during the Pleistocene and expanded into the Atlantic Ocean through the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, long-beaked common dolphins appear to have evolved more recently and independently in several oceans. Our results also suggest that short-beaked common dolphins had recurrent demographic expansions concomitant with changes in sea surface temperature during the Pleistocene and its associated increases in resource availability, which differed between the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. By proposing how past environmental changes had an effect on the demography and speciation of a widely distributed marine mammal, we highlight the impacts that climate change may have on the distribution and abundance of marine predators and its ecological consequences for marine ecosystems.

Data from: Molecular data and distribution dynamics indicate a recent and incomplete separation of manakins species of the genus Antilophia (Aves: Pipridae) in response to Holocene climate change

To determine a hypothetical scenario that accounts for the diversification of the two species of the genus Antilophia, we conducted multilocus molecular comparisons and species distribution modeling for the two taxa, which have distinct male plumage coloration patterns and allopatric geographic distributions, despite the high degree of genetic similarity indicated by recent studies. Three mitochondrial and three nuclear fragments were analyzed. The results indicate clear differences in the genetic diversity of the two species, but with ample sharing of haplotypes in all the markers analyzed, reflecting the absence of reciprocal monophyly, presumably due to the relatively recent and still incomplete separation of the two species. The paleoclimatic distribution models, together with the observed genetic profile indicate a recent process of divergence by geographic isolation in the ancestral populations of the two species. This scenario coincides with the recent climatic events of the South American dry diagonal, which involves the gallery forests of the Cerrado biome and the cloud forest enclaves of the seasonal tropical dry forest of the Caatinga between the late Pleistocene and the mid Holocene.

opencc-zeroNov 2019View details →

Plant functional traits differ in adaptability and are predicted to be differentially affected by climate change

1. Climate change is testing the resilience of forests worldwide pushing physiological tolerance to climatic extremes. Plant functional traits have been shown to be adapted to climate, and have evolved patterns of trait correlations (similar patterns of distribution) and coordinations (mechanistic trade-off). We predicted that traits would differentiate between populations associated with climatic gradients, suggestive of adaptive variation, and correlated traits would adapt to future climate scenarios in similar ways. 2. We measured genetically determined trait variation and described patterns of correlation for seven traits: photochemical reflectance index (PRI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf size (LS), specific leaf area (SLA), δ13C (integrated water use efficiency, WUE), nitrogen concentration (NCONC), and wood density (WD). All measures were conducted in an experimental plantation on 960 trees sourced from 12 populations of a key forest canopy species in southwestern Australia. 3. Significant differences were found between populations for all traits. Narrow-sense heritability was significant for five traits (0.15 to 0.21), indicating that natural selection can drive differentiation; however, SLA (0.08) and PRI (0.11) were not significantly heritable. Generalised additive models predicted trait values across the landscape for current and future climatic conditions (>90% variance). The percent change differed markedly among traits between current and future predictions (differing as little as 1.5% (δ13C) or as much as 30% (PRI)). Some trait correlations were predicted to break down in the future (SLA:NCONC, δ13C:PRI, and NCONC:WD). 4. Synthesis: Our results suggest that traits have contrasting genotypic patterns and will be subjected to different climate selection pressures, which may lower the working optimum for functional traits. Further, traits are independently associated with different climate factors, indicating that some trait correlations may be disrupted in the future. Genetic constraints and trait correlations may limit the ability for functional traits to adapt to climate change.

Data from: Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

Climate change - reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions - is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Arabian Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of climate change impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Arabian Gulf, with projections differing only slightly between models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Invasion-mediated effects on marine trophic interactions in a changing climate: positive feedbacks favour kelp persistence

The interactive effects of ocean warming and invasive species are complex and remain a source of uncertainty for projecting future ecological change. Climate-mediated change to trophic interactions can have pervasive ecological consequences, but the role of invasion in mediating trophic effects is largely unstudied. Using manipulative experiments in replicated outdoor mesocosms, we reveal how near-future ocean warming and macrophyte invasion scenarios interactively impact gastropod grazing intensity and preference for consumption of foundation macroalgae (Ecklonia radiata and Sargassum vestitum). Elevated water temperature increased consumption of both macroalgae through greater grazing intensity. Given the documented decline of kelp (E. radiata) growth at higher water temperatures, enhanced grazing could contribute to the shift from kelp-dominated to Sargasssum-dominated reefs that is occurring at the low-latitude margins of kelp distribution. However, presence of a native invader (Caulerpa filiformis) was related to low consumption by the herbivores on dominant kelp at warmer temperatures. Thus, antagonistic effects between climate change and a range expanding species can favour kelp persistence in a warmer future. Introduction of species should, therefore, not automatically be considered unfavourable under climate change scenarios. Climatic changes are increasing the need for effective management actions to address the interactive effects of multiple stressors and their ecological consequences, rather than single threats in isolation.

opencc-zeroJan 2020View details →

Could cryoturbic diapirs be key for understanding ecological feedbacks to climate change in High Arctic polar deserts?

High Arctic polar deserts cover 26% of the Arctic. Increasing temperatures are predicted to significantly alter polar desert freeze-thaw and biogeochemical cycles, with important implications for greenhouse gas emissions. However, the mechanisms underlyingthese changing cycles are still highly uncertain. Cryoturbic, carbon-rich Bhy horizons (diapirs) in frost boils are key nutrient sources for Salix arctica. We hypothesized that diapirism leads to organic carbon characteristics that alter microbial pathways, which then control root foraging and greenhouse gas production. During July–August 2013, we characterized soil properties and examined gross nitrogen transformation rates in frost boils both with and without diapirs in two High Arctic polar deserts (dolomite and granite) near Alexandra Fjord (78°51′N 75°54′W), Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. Diapiric frost boils had 18% higher soil organic carbon in the dolomitic and 9% higher in the granitic deserts, and 29% higher total dissolved nitrogen in the dolomitic desert. However, diapirs decreased gross nitrogen mineralization rates by 30% in the dolomitic and by 48% in the granitic deserts. Attenuated total reflectance Fourier transformed mid-infrared spectroscopy revealed greater concentrations of polysaccharides and recalcitrant carbon in diapiric versus non-diapiric frost boils. These increased polysaccharide concentrations likely facilitate diapirism as soil viscosity increases with polysaccharides. Lower microbial activity or ectomycorrhizae that are known to colonize S. arctica may accumulate total dissolved nitrogen in diapirs. Our results suggest geomorphologic-plant-microbe interactions may underlie important patterns of geochemical cycling in arctic systems. Thus, polar desert frost boils should represent a key focus of futre investigations of climate change in arctic systems.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change

Aim: Observed, realized niche space often underestimates species' physiological tolerances due to interactions with other species, dispersal constraints, and because some combinations of influential environmental factors do not currently exist in the real world. Conversely, correlative ecological niche models rely on the assumption that the range of environmental conditions encompassed by a species' geographic distribution accurately reflects their environmental tolerances, including community-level approaches like Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM). We extend GDM to better understand what effect broader environmental tolerances could have on compositional turnover under climate change. Innovation: We show how GDM can be adjusted as a function of best-available estimates of the average ratio between realized and potential niche widths to modify projected temporal turnover. We demonstrate this approach by using the estimated niche ratios of Australian plant species (n=7184) relative to thermal extremes, and the rate at which this ratio varied with temperature. The modified GDMs showed existing thermal tolerance could reduce the turnover predicted by standard models under climate change by up to 11%. We further show how the reduction in expected turnover by 2090 will influence where a greater proportion of the current community will persist in a region. Main conclusions: We suggest that standard spatial GDMs and their modified versions represent the extremes of ecological niche perspectives (i.e. realized and potential) and the range of tolerance communities may have when responding to environmental change. GDM projections therefore identify the range of uncertainty associated with a critical model assumption, and as climate change continues, ongoing community monitoring could be used to validate the balance between the two possibilities.

opencc-zeroDec 2015View details →

Data from: Extreme climate events counteract the effects of climate and land-use changes in Alpine treelines

Climate change and extreme events, such as drought, threaten ecosystems world-wide and in particular mountain ecosystems, where species often live at their environmental tolerance limits. In the European Alps, plant communities are also influenced by land-use abandonment leading to woody encroachment of subalpine and alpine grasslands. In this study, we explored how the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine tree lines will respond to gradual climate warming, drought events and land-use change in terms of forest expansion rates, taxonomic diversity and functional composition. We used a previously validated dynamic vegetation model, FATE-HD, parameterized for plant communities in the Ecrins National Park in the French Alps. Our results showed that intense drought counteracted the forest expansion at higher elevations driven by land-use abandonment and climate change, especially when combined with high drought frequency (occurring every 2 or less than 2 years). Furthermore, intense and frequent drought accelerated the rates of taxonomic change and resulted in overall higher taxonomic spatial heterogeneity of the ecotone than would be expected under gradual climate and land-use changes only. Synthesis and applications. The results from our model show that intense and frequent drought counteracts forest expansion driven by climate and land-use changes in the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine tree lines. We argue that land-use planning must consider the effects of extreme events, such as drought, as well as climate and land-use changes, since extreme events might interfere with trends predicted under gradual climate warming and agricultural abandonment.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically-driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125,000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatiotemporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realised niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is likely optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

opencc-zeroDec 2015View details →

Data from: A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response.

Data from: Predicting evolution in response to climate change: the example of sprouting probability in three dormancy-prone orchid species

Although many ecological properties of species respond to climate change, their evolutionary responses are poorly understood. Here, we use data from long-term demographic studies to predict evolutionary responses of three herbaceous perennial orchid species, Cypripedium parviflorum, C. candidum and Ophrys sphegodes, to predicted climate changes in the habitats they occupy. We focus on the evolution of sprouting probability, because all three species exhibit long-term vegetative dormancy, i.e. individual plants may not emerge above-ground, potentially for several consecutive years. The drivers of all major vital rates for populations of the species were analysed with general linear mixed models (GLMMs). High-dimensionality function-based matrix projection models were then developed to serve as core elements of deterministic and stochastic adaptive dynamics models used to analyse the adaptive context of sprouting in all populations. We then used regional climate forecasts, derived from high-resolution general atmospheric circulation models, of increased mean annual temperatures and spring precipitation at the occupied sites, to predict evolutionary trends in sprouting. The models predicted that C. parviflorum and O. sphegodes will evolve higher and lower probabilities of sprouting, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century, whereas, after considerable variation, the probability of sprouting in C. candidum will return to its current level. These trends appear to be driven by relationships between mortality and size: in C. parviflorum and C. candidum, mortality is negatively related to size in the current year but positively related to growth since the previous year, whereas in O. sphegodes, mortality is positively related to size.

opencc-zeroDec 2015View details →

Data from: Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources.

Data from: European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change

1.Most naturalized and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalized. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalization for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. 2.To identify predictors of naturalization, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalization success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalization risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalized in Europe. 3.We found that non‐European naturalized range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalization success in Europe. By 2050, naturalization probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. 4.Policy Implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalization success, we identified species with high future naturalization risk and species with high projected increases in naturalization potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritization of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt.