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16 results for “Climate mismatch”
Climate change drives spatial mismatch and threatens the biotic interactions of the Brazil nut tree
<p>Aim: Climate change and deforestation will redistribute the biodiversity in the next century. Species-specific differences in the response to such stressors will lead to distribution decoupling of interacting species, yet consequences for ecosystem services are poorly known. Here, we assess the potential effects of future niche mismatch on a key ecosystem service mediated by seed dispersal and pollination interactions in the Amazon: the sustainable exploitation of Brazil nuts.</p> <p>Location: The Amazon. Major taxa studied: Woody plant, medium-sized mammals, and insects.</p> <p>Time period: Present day, end of the 21st Century.</p> <p>Methods: Combining ecological niche models to simulations of tree cover loss and dispersal constraints, we compare the forecasted distribution of the plant to that of its interacting fauna of pollinators and seed dispersers.</p> <p>Results: Our projections indicate that climate change itself could have no or slightly negative effects on the distribution of the Brazil nut tree, expected to increase by 6% by year 2090. However, range contractions of nearly half of all the suitable climate for pollinators may lead up to 80% reduction on co-occurrence potential. In addition, local pollinator richness is expected to reduce by 20%, with likely consequences for pollination redundancy and resilience to subsequent environment changes. Although reductions on the suitable area of some seed dispersers were also forecasted in the future, potential co-occurrence with the plant and local species richness were mostly unabated in most of our projections.</p> <p>Main conclusion: The forecasted declines in pollinator diversity may hamper ecosystem function redundancy and threaten the long-term resilience of the services provided by Brazil nut trees. Such pervasive and indirect effects of climate change, often neglected and unaccounted for in most conservation assessments, may cascade into economies and human well-being worldwide.</p>
Climate change drives spatial mismatch and threatens the biotic interactions of the Brazil nut tree
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Compensating for climate change-induced cue-environment mismatches: evidence for contemporary evolution of a photoperiodic reaction norm in Colias butterflies
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Data from: Community assembly and climate mismatch in Late-Quaternary eastern North American pollen assemblages
Plant community response to climate change ranges from synchronous tracking to strong mismatch. Explaining this variation in climate change response is critical for accurate global change modeling. Here we quantify how closely assemblages track changes in climate (match/mismatch) and how broadly climate niches are spread within assemblages (narrow/broad ecological tolerance, or 'filtering') using data for the last 21 ka for 531 eastern North American fossil pollen assemblages. Although climate matching has been strong over the last 21 millennia, mismatch increased in 30% of assemblages during the rapid climate shifts between 14.5 to 10 ka BP. Assemblage matching rebounded towards the present day in 10-20% of assemblages. Climate-assemblage mismatch was greater in tree-dominated and high-latitude assemblages, consistent with persisting populations, slower dispersal rates, and glacial retreat. In contrast, climate matching was greater for assemblages comprising taxa with higher median seed mass. Over half of the assemblages were climatically filtered at any given time, with peak filtering occurring at 8.5 ka BP for nearly 80% of assemblages. Thus, vegetation assemblages have highly variable rates of climate mismatch and filtering over millennial scales. These climate responses can be partially predicted by species' traits and life histories. These findings help constrain predictions for plant community response to contemporary climate change.
Local climate determines vulnerability to camouflage mismatch in snowshoe hares
<p>Aim: Phenological mismatches, when life-events become mistimed with optimal en- vironmental conditions, have become increasingly common under climate change. Population-level susceptibility to mismatches depends on how phenology and pheno- typic plasticity vary across a species' distributional range. Here, we quantify the envi- ronmental drivers of colour moult phenology, phenotypic plasticity, and the extent of phenological mismatch in seasonal camouflage to assess vulnerability to mismatch in a common North American mammal.<br> Location: North America.<br> Time period: 2010–2017.<br> Major taxa studied: Snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus).<br> Methods: We used > 5,500 by-catch photographs of snowshoe hares from 448 re- mote camera trap sites at three independent study areas. To quantify moult phenol- ogy and phenotypic plasticity, we used multinomial logistic regression models that incorporated geospatial and high-resolution climate data. We estimated occurrence of camouflage mismatch between hares' coat colour and the presence and absence of snow over 7 years of monitoring.<br> Results: Spatial and temporal variation in moult phenology depended on local climate conditions more so than on latitude. First, hares in colder, snowier areas moulted earlier in the fall and later in the spring. Next, hares exhibited phenotypic plasticity in moult phenology in response to annual variation in temperature and snow dura- tion, especially in the spring. Finally, the occurrence of camouflage mismatch varied in space and time; white hares on dark, snowless background occurred primarily during low-snow years in regions characterized by shallow, short-lasting snowpack.<br> Main conclusions: Long-term climate and annual variation in snow and temperature determine coat colour moult phenology in snowshoe hares. In most areas, climate change leads to shorter snow seasons, but the occurrence of camouflage mismatch varies across the species' range. Our results underscore the population-specific sus- ceptibility to climate change-induced stressors and the necessity to understand this variation to prioritize the populations most vulnerable under global environmental change.</p>
Data from: Functional mismatch in a bumble bee pollination mutualism under climate change
Ecological partnerships, or mutualisms, are globally widespread, sustaining agriculture and biodiversity. Mutualisms evolve through the matching of functional traits between partners, such as tongue length of pollinators and flower tube depth of plants. Long-tongued pollinators specialize on flowers with deep corolla tubes, whereas shorter-tongued pollinators generalize across tube lengths. Losses of functional guilds because of shifts in global climate may disrupt mutualisms and threaten partner species. We found that in two alpine bumble bee species, decreases in tongue length have evolved over 40 years. Co-occurring flowers have not become shallower, nor are small-flowered plants more prolific. We argue that declining floral resources because of warmer summers have favored generalist foraging, leading to a mismatch between shorter-tongued bees and the longer-tubed plants they once pollinated.
Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts (Van Nuland et al. 2024; PNAS)
<p>These R scripts describe the setup, data wrangling, climate envelope modeling, and spatial analysis of Tree-EMF habitat overlap and mismatches associated with the manuscript Van Nuland et al. (2024) “<em>Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts</em>”.</p> <p>Data included in this study are available from the National Ecological Observatory Network at http://doi.org/10.48443/ybrs-zv89, RELEASE-2021 (DP1.10086.001) and the BIEN R package. Microbial sequence data are available through the ‘neonMicrobe’ R package (ref. 29 in the manuscript) and the NCBI SRA (accession number: PRJNA950128). Climate data is available from worldclim (https://www.worldclim.org/). Additional data sources from the Peay Lab NSF Dimensions of Biodiversity project on EMF surveys in Pine forests across North America (Talbot et al. 2014 PNAS, Steidinger et al. 2021 Journal of Biogeography).</p>
Worldclim 2.1 versus Worldclim 1.4: climatic niche and grid resolution affect between-version mismatches in habitat suitability models predictions across Europe
<p>The influence of climate on the distribution of taxa has been extensively investigated in the last two decades through Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs). In this context, the Worldclim database represents an invaluable data source as it provides worldwide climate surfaces for both historical and future time horizons. Thousands of HSMs-based papers have been published taking advantage of Worldclim 1.4, the first online version of this repository. In 2017, Worldclim 2.1 was released. Here, we evaluated spatially explicit prediction mismatch at continental scale, focusing on Europe, between HSMs fitted using climate surfaces from the two Worldclim versions (between-version differences). To this aim, we simulated occurrence probability and presence-absence across Europe of four virtual species (VS) with differing climate-occurrence relationships. For each VS, we fitted HSMs upon uncorrelated bioclimatic variables derived from each Worldclim version at three grid resolutions. For each factor combination, HSMs attaining sufficient discrimination performance on spatially independent test data were projected across Europe under current conditions and various future scenarios, and importance scores of the single variables were computed. HSMs failed in accurately retrieving the simulated climate-occurrence relationships for the climate-tolerant VS and the one occurring under a narrow combination of climatic conditions. Under current climate, noticeable between-version prediction mismatch emerged across most of Europe for these two VSs, whose simulated suitability mainly depended upon diurnal or yearly variability in temperature; differently, between-version differences were more clustered toward areas showing extreme values, like mountainous massifs or southern regions, for VSs responding to average temperature and precipitation trends. Under future climate, the chosen emission scenarios and Global Climate Models did not evidently influence between-version prediction discrepancies, while grid resolution synergistically interacted with VSs' niche characteristics in determining extent of such differences. Our findings could help in re-evaluating previous biodiversity-related works relying on geographical predictions from Worldclim-based HSMs.</p>
Figure 4. Mismatch distributions for 11 in Phylogeography of the Poecilimon luschani species group (Orthoptera, Tettigoniidae): a radiation strictly correlated with climatic transitions in the Pleistocene
Figure 4. Mismatch distributions for 11 populations of the Poecilimon luschani species group for cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) sequences. The continuous and interrupted (connecting circles) lines indicate the expected (Exp) and observed (Obs) distributions of pairwise differences obtained by fitting a model of sudden population expansion. A, İzmir (P. ledereri); B, Aydın (P. tuncayi); C, Kütahya (P. egrigozi); D, Balıkesir (P. helleri); E- Es¸en2 (P. l. chobanovi); F, Es¸en3 (P. l. chobanovi); G, Demre (P. l. luschani); H, Kalkan (P. l. luschani); I, Patara (P. l. luschani); J, Olympos (P. l. birandi); K, Bakırlıdag (P. l. birandi).
Data for: Testing the match-mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring 'peak' green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life-history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
Data from: Functional mismatch in a bumble bee pollination mutualism under climate change
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Worldclim 2.1 versus Worldclim 1.4: climatic niche and grid resolution affect between-version mismatches in habitat suitability models predictions across Europe
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Data from: Community assembly and climate mismatch in Late-Quaternary eastern North American pollen assemblages
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Data for: Testing the match-mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change
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Local climate determines vulnerability to camouflage mismatch in snowshoe hares
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Data from: Genotype-environment mismatch of kelp forests under climate change
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