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26 results for “Environmental niche model”
Data for Marine Ecological Niche Models, for 2019 and across RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios in 2050 and 2100: Global-scale Environmental parameters at 0.1° and 0.5° resolutions, Presence and Absence Records of 1508 European-seas Species
<p>Data for Ecological Niche Models: Global-scale Environmental parameters at 0.1° and 0.5° resolutions, Presence and Absence Records of 1508 European-seas Species.</p>
Figure 7 in Environmental niche modelling of the Chinese pond mussel invasion in Europe under climate change scenarios
Figure 7. Map of potential invasion range of S. woodiana in Europe under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario at 2080-2100: green filling indicates areas defined as suitable using minimum presence (MP) threshold; orange filling indicates areas defined as suitable using 10th percentile presence (10P) threshold. Black dots indicate species record used for SDM.
Figure 6 in Environmental niche modelling of the Chinese pond mussel invasion in Europe under climate change scenarios
Figure 6. Map of potential invasion range of S. woodiana in Europe under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario at 2080-2100: green filling indicates areas defined as suitable using minimum presence (MP) threshold; orange filling indicates areas defined as suitable using 10th percentile presence (10P) threshold. Black dots indicate species record used for SDM.
Figure 4 in Environmental niche modelling of the Chinese pond mussel invasion in Europe under climate change scenarios
Figure 4. Response curves of the environmental variables selected for prediction of S. woodiana distribution under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Each curve (green line) shows how the logistic prediction changes as each environmental variable is varied. The orange dashed line crosses the maximum value of the variable.
Figure 5 in Environmental niche modelling of the Chinese pond mussel invasion in Europe under climate change scenarios
Figure 5. Map of potential invasion range of S. woodiana in Europe under the recent climate conditions: green filling indicates areas defined as suitable using minimum presence (MP) threshold; orange filling indicates areas defined as suitable using 10th percentile presence (10P) threshold. Black dots indicate species record used for SDM.
Figure 3 in Environmental niche modelling of the Chinese pond mussel invasion in Europe under climate change scenarios
Figure 3. Response curves of the environmental variables selected for prediction of S. woodiana distribution under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Each curve (green line) shows how the logistic prediction changes as each environmental variable is varied. The orange dashed line crosses the maximum value of the variable.
Figure 1 in Environmental niche modelling of the Chinese pond mussel invasion in Europe under climate change scenarios
Figure 1. Map of records of S. woodiana in Europe obtained from GBIF database and published sources (Vikhrev et al., 2024).
Data for: Combining environmental niche models, multi-grain analyses, and species traits identifies pervasive effects of land use on butterfly biodiversity across Italy
<p><span>Understanding how species respond to human activities is paramount to ecology and conservation science, one outstanding question being how large-scale patterns in land use affect biodiversity. To facilitate answering this question, we propose a novel analytical framework that combines Environmental Niche Models, multi-grain analyses, and species traits. We illustrate the framework capitalizing on the most extensive dataset compiled to date for the butterflies of Italy (106,514 observations for 288 species), assessing how agriculture and urbanization have affected biodiversity of these taxa from landscape to regional scales (3–48 km grains) across the country while accounting for its steep climatic gradients.</span></p> <p><span>Multiple lines of evidence suggest pervasive and scale-dependent effects of land use on butterflies in Italy. While land use explained patterns in species richness primarily at grains ≤ 12 km, idiosyncratic responses in species highlighted "winners" and "losers" across human-dominated regions. Detrimental effects of agriculture and urbanization emerged from landscape (3-km grain) to regional (48-km grain) scales, disproportionally affecting small butterflies and butterflies with a short flight curve. Human activities have therefore reorganized the biogeography of Italian butterflies, filtering out species with poor dispersal capacity and narrow niche breadth not only from local assemblages but also from regional species pools. </span></p> <p><span>These results suggest that global conservation efforts neglecting large-scale patterns in land use risk falling short of their goals, even for taxa typically assumed to persist in small natural areas (e.g., invertebrates). Our study also confirms that consideration of spatial scales will be crucial to implementing effective conservation actions in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. In this context, applications of the proposed analytical framework have broad potential to identify which mechanisms underlie biodiversity change at different spatial scales. </span></p> <p><span><em>Funding statement: </em>FR is supported by the PROBAE project "Protect butterflies across Europe through climate refugia" funded by the European Commission through Horizon 2020, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) individual fellowship, reintegration panel (Grant agreement ID: 101024579). Open Access Funding provided by Universita degli Studi di Torino within the CRUI-CARE Agreement.</span></p>
Data for: Combining environmental niche models, multi-grain analyses, and species traits identifies pervasive effects of land use on butterfly biodiversity across Italy
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Environmental niche models improve species identification in DNA barcoding
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Data from: Is there a correlation between abundance and environmental suitability derived from ecological niche modelling? A meta-analysis
It is thought that species abundance is correlated with environmental suitability and that environmental variables, scale, and type of model fitting can confound this relationship. We performed a meta-analysis to (i) test whether species abundance is positively correlated with environmental suitability derived from correlative ecological niche models (ENM), (ii) test whether studies encompassing large areas within a species range (>50%) exhibited higher AS correlations than studies encompassing small areas within a species range (<50%), (iii) assess which modelling method provided higher AS correlation, and (iv) compare strength of the AS relationship between studies using only climatic variables and those that used both climatic and other environmental variables to derive suitability. We used correlation coefficients to measure the relationship between abundance and environmental suitability derived from ENM. Each correlation coefficient was considered an effect size in a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis. In all cases we found a significantly positive relationship between abundance and suitability. This relationship was consistent regardless of scale of study, ENM method, or set of variables used to derive suitability. There was no difference in strength of correlation between studies focusing on large or small areas within a species' range or among ENM methods. Studies using other variables in combination with climate exhibited higher AS correlations than studies using only climatic variables. We conclude that occurrence data can be a reasonable proxy for abundance, especially for vertebrates, and the use of local variables increases the strength of the AS relationship. Use of ENMs can significantly decrease survey costs and allow the study of large-scale abundance patterns using less information. Including only climatic variables in ENM may confound the relationship between abundance and suitability when compared to studies including variables taken locally. However, modelers and conservationists must be aware that high environmental suitability does not always indicate high abundance.
Data from: Correlation between genetic diversity and environmental suitability: taking uncertainty from ecological niche models into account
The hindcast of shifts in the geographical ranges of species as estimated by ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been coupled with phylogeographical patterns, allowing the inference of past processes that drove population differentiation and genetic variability. However, more recently, some studies have suggested that maps of environmental suitability estimated by ENM may be correlated to species' abundance, raising the possibility of using environmental suitability to infer processes related to population demographic dynamics and genetic variability. In both cases, one of the main problems is that there is a wide variation in ENM development methods and climatic models. In this study, we analyse the relationship between heterozygosity (He) and environmental suitability from multiple ENMs for 25 population estimates for Dipteryx alata, a widely distributed, endemic tree species of the Cerrado region of central Brazil. We propose a new approach for generating a statistical distribution of correlations under randomly generated ENM. The confidence intervals from these distributions indicate how model selection with different properties affects the ability to detect a correlation of interest (e.g. the correlation between He and suitability). Additionally, our approach allows us to explore which particular ensemble of ENMs produces the better result for finding an association between environmental suitability and He. Caution is necessary when choosing a method or a climatic data set for modelling geographical distributions, but the new approach proposed here provides a conservative way to evaluate the ability of ensembles to detect patterns of interest.
Data from: Environmental filtering improves ecological niche models across multiple scales
1. A clear challenge for ecological niche modeling is determining how to best mitigate the effects of sampling bias from commonly collected biodiversity data. Recent approaches have focused on filtering occurrences in overrepresented regions based on geographic or environmental proximity. 2. We tested the efficacy of filtering in geographic and environmental space using occurrence data from four species. Our evaluation strategies examined 14 distance measures in geographic and environmental spaces and eight combinations of environmental variables and their ordinations. This resulted in 78 datasets for each species, which we evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), the difference between training and testing AUC, omission rate, the true skill statistic, and Schoener's D to examine the effects of different filtering schemes. 3. The degree of change produced by filtering on predicted suitability and evaluation statistics increased with increasing range size. Environmental filtering resulted in higher model fit at larger extents and retained more occurrences than geographic filtering. 4. Our results indicate that models should be evaluated using multiple evaluation statistics at multiple thresholds. The use of bin sizes when filtering in environmental space allows for simple comparison between species and filter types and makes for an easily reportable and repeatable distance metric. We specifically recommend that ecological niche models using natural history collection data filter in environmental space with variables derived from permutation importance or the first few axes of a principal components ordination.
Spatiotemporal monitoring of the rare Northern dragonhead, Dracocephalum ruyschiana (Lamiaceae): SNP genotyping and environmental niche modelling herbarium specimens
<p><strong>Aim: </strong>We have studied spatiotemporal genetic change in the Northern dragonhead, a plant species that has experienced a drastic population decline and habitat loss in Europe. We add a temporal perspective to the monitoring of dragonhead in Norway by genotyping herbarium specimens up to 200 years old. We also assess whether dragonhead has achieved its potential distribution in Norway. Location: Europe (mainly Norway)</p> <p><strong>Methods:</strong> We have applied a microfluidic array consisting of 96 SNP markers on 130 herbarium specimens collected from 1820 to 2008, mainly from Norway (83) but also beyond (47). We have compared our new genotype data with existing data from modern samples. We have modelled the species' environmental niche and potential distribution in Norway using sample metadata and observational records.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>The SNP array successfully genotyped all included herbarium specimens. The captured genetic diversity was negatively correlated with distance from Norway. The historical-modern comparison revealed similar genetic structure and diversity across space and limited genetic change through time in Norway. The ENM suggests that dragonhead is anchored in warmer and drier habitats.</p> <p><strong>Main conclusions: </strong>With appropriate design procedures, the SNP array technology is promising for genotyping old herbarium specimens. We found no signs of any regional bottleneck. The regional areas in Norway have remained genetically divergent, however, both from each other and more so from populations outside of Norway, rendering continued protection of the species in Norway relevant. The ENM suggests that dragonhead has not fully achieved its potential distribution in Norway.</p>
Figure 2 in Presence of the crab-eating fox Cerdocyon thous in La Rioja, Argentina, and implications for its geographic and environmental niche modeling
Figure 2: Cerdocyon thous present environmental niche models result maps. (A) South model. (B) Detail of model (A) for the province of La Rioja. (C) Complete model. (D) Detail of model (C) for the province of La Rioja. The color gradient indicates the suitability values, where white represents minimum values (0–10 %) and red the maximum values (76–100 %), as detailed in the figure.
Figure 1 in Presence of the crab-eating fox Cerdocyon thous in La Rioja, Argentina, and implications for its geographic and environmental niche modeling
Figure 1: New records Cerdocyon thous in La Rioja. (A–C) Photograps taken near Huaco River (2020–2021). (D) C. thous skin collected by Parodi in 1929, deposited as MACN 29.882 and label information.
Figure 3 in Presence of the crab-eating fox Cerdocyon thous in La Rioja, Argentina, and implications for its geographic and environmental niche modeling
Figure 3: Cerdocyon thous past environmental niche models for result maps. (A) Last interglacial model. (B) Last glacial maximum model. (C) Middle Holocene model. The color gradient indicates the suitability values, where white represents minimum values (0–10 %) and red the maximum values (76–100 %), as detailed in the figure.
Data for: Habitat functionality: integrating environmental and geographic space in niche modelling for conservation planning
<p>Niche modelling is typically used to assess the effects of anthropogenic land use and climate change on species distributions and to inform spatial conservation planning. These models focus on the suitability of local biotic and abiotic conditions for a species in environmental space (E-space). Although movements also affect species occurrence, efforts to formally integrate geographic space (G-space) into niche modelling have been hindered by the lack of comprehensive theoretical frameworks. </p> <p>We propose the 'functional habitat' framework to define areas that are simultaneously of high-quality in E-space and functionally connected to other suitable habitat in G-space. Originating in metapopulation ecology, approaches have been developed to assess the amount of suitable connected habitat, based on the proximity between pairs of locations. Using network theory, which operates in topological space (T-space, defined by a network), we extended these metapopulation approaches to integrate movement constraints in G-space with niche modelling in E-space. </p> <p>We demonstrate the functional habitat framework using empirical data (GPS-tracking and population monitoring) throughout the European wild mountain reindeer (<em>Rangifer t. tarandus</em>) distribution range. We show that functional habitat outperforms traditional suitability in explaining the species' distribution. This approach integrates effects from habitat loss and fragmentation for spatial conservation planning and avoids overemphasizing small, inaccessible areas with locally suitable habitat. The functional habitat framework formally integrates biotic, abiotic, and movement constraints in niche modeling using network theory, thus opening a wide range of applications in spatial conservation planning.</p>
Data from: Correlation between genetic diversity and environmental suitability: taking uncertainty from ecological niche models into account
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Spatiotemporal monitoring of the rare Northern dragonhead, Dracocephalum ruyschiana (Lamiaceae): SNP genotyping and environmental niche modelling herbarium specimens
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