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4 results for “Invasion debt”
Data from: European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change
1.Most naturalized and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalized. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalization for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. 2.To identify predictors of naturalization, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalization success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalization risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalized in Europe. 3.We found that non‐European naturalized range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalization success in Europe. By 2050, naturalization probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. 4.Policy Implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalization success, we identified species with high future naturalization risk and species with high projected increases in naturalization potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritization of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt.
Time lags and the invasion debt in plant naturalisations
Ecological processes often exhibit time lags. For plant invasions, lags of decades to centuries between species' introduction and establishment in the wild (naturalisation) are common, leading to the idea of an invasion debt: accelerating rates of introduction result in an expanding pool of introduced species that will naturalise in the future. Here, I show how a concept from survival analysis, the hazard function, provides an intuitive way to understand and forecast time lags. For plant naturalisation, theoretical arguments predict that lags between introduction and naturalisation will have a unimodal distribution, and that increasing horticultural activity will cause the mean and variance of lag times to decline over time. These predictions were supported by data on introduction and naturalisation dates for plant species introduced to Britain. While increasing trade and horticultural activity can generate an invasion debt by accelerating introductions, the same processes could lower that debt by reducing lag times.
Data from: European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change
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Time lags and the invasion debt in plant naturalisations
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