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60 results for “Metapopulation dynamics”
Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a NorthEast Atlantic seabird across two centuries
<p>Datasets required to run code for contribution:</p> <p>Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a NorthEast Atlantic seabird across two centuries</p> <p>Jana WE Jeglinski, Holly I Niven, Sarah Wanless, Robert T. Barrett, Mike P. Harris, Jochen Dierschke and Jason Matthiopoulos</p> <p>Extension of a Bayesian metapopulation model fit to colony census data for all Northeast Atlantic colonies of the Northern gannet (<em>Morus bassanus</em>) described in Jeglinski et al. (2023) to investigate mechanistic relationships with climate and forecast metapopulation dynamics under two climate scenarios. </p>
Stability of patch-turnover relationships under equilibrium and nonequilibrium metapopulation dynamics driven by biogeography
<p>Two controversial tenets of metapopulation biology are whether patch quality and the surrounding matrix are more important to turnover (colonization and extinction) than biogeography (patch area and isolation) and whether factors governing turnover during equilibrium also dominate nonequilibrium dynamics. We tested both tenets using 18 years of surveys for two secretive wetland birds, black and Virginia rails, during (1) a period of equilibrium with stable occupancy and (2) after drought and arrival of West Nile Virus (WNV), which resulted in WNV infections in rails, increased extinction and decreased colonization probabilities modified by WNV, nonequilibrium dynamics for both species, and occupancy decline for black rails. Area (primarily) and isolation (secondarily) drove turnover during both stable and unstable metapopulation dynamics, greatly exceeding the effects of patch quality and matrix conditions. Moreover, slopes between turnover and patch characteristics changed little between equilibrium and nonequilibrium, confirming the overriding influences of biogeographic factors on turnover.</p>
Data and code: Assessing fish-fishery dynamics from a spatially explicit metapopulation perspective reveals winners and losers in fisheries management
<ol> <li><span>Sustainable management of living resources must reconcile biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic viability of human activities. In the case of fisheries, sustainable management design is made challenging by the complex spatiotemporal interactions between fish and fisheries.</span></li> <li><span>We develop a comprehensive metapopulation framework integrating data on species life-history traits, connectivity and habitat distribution to identify priority areas for fishing regulation and assess how management impacts are spatially distributed. We trial this approach on European hake fisheries in the north-western Mediterranean, where we assess area-based management scenarios in terms of stock status and fishery productivity to prioritize areas for protection. </span></li> <li><span>Model simulations show that local fishery closures have the potential to enhance both spawning stock biomass and landings on a regional scale compared to a status quo scenario, but that improving protection is easier than increasing productivity. Moreover, the interaction between metapopulation dynamics and the redistribution of fishing effort following local closures implies that benefits and drawbacks are heterogeneously distributed in space, the former being concentrated in the proximity of the protected site. </span></li> <li><span>A network analysis shows that priority areas for protection are those with the highest connectivity (as expressed by network metrics) if the objective is to improve the spawning stock, while no significant relationship emerges between connectivity and potential for increased landings.</span></li> <li> <span><em>Synthesis and applications</em> – </span><span>Our framework provides a tool for 1) assessing area-based management measures aimed at improving fisheries outcomes in terms of both conservation and socioeconomic viability and 2) describing the spatial distribution of costs and benefits, which can help guide effective management and gain stakeholder support. Adult dispersal remains the main source of uncertainty that needs to be investigated to effectively apply our model to fisheries regulation.</span> </li> </ol>
Data and code: Assessing fish-fishery dynamics from a spatially explicit metapopulation perspective reveals winners and losers in fisheries management
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Stability of patch-turnover relationships under equilibrium and nonequilibrium metapopulation dynamics driven by biogeography
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Metapopulation dynamics and foraging plasticity in a highly vagile seabird, the southern rockhopper penguin
<p>Population connectivity is driven by individual dispersal potential and modulated by natal philopatry. In seabirds, high vagility facilitates dispersal yet philopatry is also common, with foraging area overlap often correlated with population connectivity. We assess the interplay between these processes by studying past and current connectivity and foraging niche overlap among southern rockhopper penguin colonies of the coast of southern South America using genomic and stable isotope analyses. We found two distinct genetic clusters and detected low admixture between northern and southern colonies. Stable isotope analysis indicated niche variability between colonies, with Malvinas/Falklands colonies encompassing the species entire isotopic foraging niche, while the remaining colonies had smaller, nonoverlapping niches. A recently founded colony in continental Patagonia differed in isotopic niche width and position with Malvinas/Falklands colonies, its genetically identified founder population, suggesting the exploitation of novel foraging areas and/or prey items. Additionally, dispersing individuals found dead across the Patagonian shore in an unusual mortality event were also assigned to the northern cluster, suggesting northern individuals reach southern localities, but do not breed in these colonies. Facilitated by variability in foraging strategies, and especially during unfavorable conditions, the number of dispersing individuals may increase and enhance the probability of founding new colonies. Metapopulation demographic dynamics in seabirds should account for interannual variability in dispersal behavior and pay special attention to extreme climatic events, classically related to negative effects on population trends.</p>
Coupled stochastic modelling of hierarchical channel network dynamics and metapopulation persistency - Dataset
<p>Dynamic changes in the active portion of stream networks represent a phenomenon common to diverse climates and geologic settings. However, the ecological implications of river network expansions/retractions remain poorly understood owing to operational difficulties in mechanistically describing these processes at the relevant spatio-temporal scales. Here we present a novel Bayesian framework for the simulation of event-based channel network dynamics capitalizing on the concept of "hierarchical structuring of temporary streams" - a general principle to identify the activation/deactivation order of network nodes. The framework incorporates a dynamic version of a stochastic occupancy metapopulation model, and is used to analyze the impact of pulsing river networks on species persistence in different scenarios. Climate strongly controls temporal variations of the active length, influencing the preferential configuration of the active channels and the speed of network retraction during drying. We also identify a climate-dependent detrimental effect of network dynamics on species spread and persistence. This effect is enhanced by dry climates, where flashy expansions and retractions of the flowing channels induce metapopulation extinction. Survival probabilities are particularly reduced in settings where the spatial heterogeneity of network connectivity is pronounced. The proposed framework provides novel insight on the multi-faced ecological legacies of channel network dynamics.</p>
Coupled stochastic modelling of hierarchical channel network dynamics and metapopulation persistency - Dataset
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Data from: Phylogenomics supports island contribution to metapopulation dynamics in a predominantly continental bird species
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Data from: Eco-evolutionary metapopulation dynamics of Batesian mimicry: Conditions for mimics without models
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Code for: A metapopulation model of social group dynamics and disease applied to Yellowstone wolves
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Metapopulation dynamics and foraging plasticity in a highly vagile seabird, the southern rockhopper penguin
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Data: Using environmental DNA and occupancy modeling to estimate rangewide metapopulation dynamics
<p>We demonstrate the power of combining two emergent tools for resolving rangewide metapopulation dynamics. First, we employed environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys to efficiently generate multi-season rangewide site occupancy histories. Second, we developed a novel<i> </i>dynamic, spatial multiscale occupancy model to estimate metapopulation dynamics. The model incorporates spatial relationships, explicitly accounts for non-detection bias and allows direct evaluation of the drivers of extinction and colonization. We applied these tools to examine metapopulation dynamics of endangered tidewater goby, a species endemic to California estuarine habitats. We analyzed rangewide eDNA data from 190 geographically isolated sites (813 total water samples) surveyed from two years (2016 and 2017). Rangewide estimates of the proportion of sites that were occupied varied little between 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.51). However, there was evidence of extinction and colonization dynamics. The probability of extinction of an occupied site (0.106) and probability of colonization of an unoccupied site (0.085) were nearly equal. Stability in site occupancy proportions combined with nearly equal rates of extinction and colonization suggests a dynamic equilibrium between the two years surveyed. Assessment of covariate effects revealed that colonization probability increased as the number of occupied neighboring sites increased and as distance between occupied sites decreased. We show that eDNA surveys can rapidly provide a snapshot of a species distribution over a broad geographic range, and when these surveys are paired with occupancy modeling, can uncover metapopulation dynamics and their drivers.</p>
Perturbation drives changing metapopulation dynamics in a top marine predator
Metapopulation theory assumes a balance between local decays/extinctions and local growth/new colonisations. Here we investigate whether recent population declines across part of the UK harbour seal range represent normal metapopulation dynamics or are indicative of perturbations potentially threatening the metapopulation viability, using 20 years of population trends, location tracking data ( n = 380), and UK-wide, multi-generational population genetic data ( n = 269). First, we use microsatellite data to show that two genetic groups previously identified are distinct metapopulations: northern and southern. Then, we characterize the northern metapopulation dynamics in two different periods, before and after the start of regional declines (pre-/peri-perturbation). We identify source–sink dynamics across the northern metapopulation, with two putative source populations apparently supporting three likely sink populations, and a recent metapopulation-wide disruption of migration coincident with the perturbation. The northern metapopulation appears to be in decay, highlighting that changes in local populations can lead to radical alterations in the overall metapopulation's persistence and dynamics.
Data from: Time since disturbance affects colonization dynamics in a metapopulation
1. Disturbances are widespread in nature and can have substantial population-level consequences. Most empirical studies on the effects of disturbance track population recovery within habitat patches, but have an incomplete representation of the recolonization process. Additionally, recent metapopulation models represent post-disturbance colonization with a recovery state or time-lag for disturbed ("focal") patches, thus assuming that recolonization rates are uniform. 2. However, the availability of colonists in neighboring "source" patches can vary, especially in frequently-disturbed landscapes such as fire-managed forests that have a mosaic of patches that differ in successional state and undergo frequent local extinctions. To determine how time since disturbance in both focal and neighboring source patches might affect metapopulations, we studied the effects of time since fire (TSF) on abundances of a specialist palmetto beetle within and between fire management units in Apalachicola National Forest, Florida. 3. We measured beetle abundances at three distances from the shared edge of paired units, with units ranging from 0-64 months since fire and the difference in time since burning for a focal-source pair ranging from 3-58 months. 4. Soon after fire, beetle abundances within management units were highest near the unit edge, but this pattern changed with increasing TSF. Between paired units, the more recently-disturbed ("focal") unit's beetle abundance was positively related to source unit abundance, but the shape of this relationship differed based on focal unit TSF and the units' difference in time since burning. 5. Results suggest that both focal and source habitat history can influence recolonization of recently-disturbed patches and that these effects may persist over years. Thus, when predicting metapopulation dynamics, variation in habitat characteristics should be considered not only for patches receiving colonists, but for patches supplying colonists as well.
Data from: Intercolony movement of pre-breeding seabirds over oceanic scales: implications of cryptic age-classes for conservation and metapopulation dynamics
Aim: Demographic linkage between subpopulations plays a critical role in population processes. Metapopulation dynamics, however, remains one of the most poorly understood aspects of population biology. This is especially true for small, pelagic seabirds because their discrete subpopulations are located on offshore islands, separated by vast areas of open ocean, making monitoring logistically challenging. Seabird populations often contain large numbers of immature pre-breeders that may be important for subpopulation connectivity and demography, but are poorly studied. Here we provide evidence for intercolony movement of pre-breeding Leach's storm-petrels Oceanodroma leucorhoa among three colonies spanning the North Atlantic Ocean. We discuss their influence on metapopulation dynamics and the extinction risk of a subpopulation under threat from extreme predation. Location: North Atlantic Ocean Islands (Scotland, Canada & Iceland). Methods: We use a novel application of Bayesian stable isotope mixing models to infer recent movement of pre-breeding birds between three major breeding populations in the North Atlantic. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope values from breeding birds (central place foragers) sampled at each colony were used as model sources and pre-breeding birds as model mixtures. Results: Of 134 pre-breeding Leach's storm-petrels sampled at three colonies across the North Atlantic, five had isotope mixing model estimates dissimilar (< 25%) to their colony of capture and were instead isotopically similar to another breeding region. Nineteen further pre-breeders had highly mixed signatures (< 50% for the colony of capture), indicating possible recent movement between colonies. Main conclusions: Our findings provide evidence for interpopulation connectivity of pre-breeding Leach's storm-petrels among colonies spanning the North Atlantic. These results highlight the significance of cryptic young age-classes in metapopulation dynamics and the demographic processes. Moreover, they provide us with a better understanding of how one subpopulation remains extant, despite experiencing extreme predation rates.
Data from: Stay at home aphids: comparative spatial and seasonal metapopulation structure and dynamics of two specialist tansy aphid species studied using microsatellite markers
Two tansy-feeding aphids – Macrosiphoniella tanacetaria (MA) and Metopeurum fuscoviride (ME) – were studied at a small spatial scale in and around Jena (< 80 km2) using polymorphic microsatellite markers. Both species were found in ~ 60% of sites formerly known to harbour the aphids, although generally when they did occur, they occurred singly (MA ~ 50%; ME ~60%) and rarely together on the same plant at the same time (~10%) and then usually only in the early part of the growing season. This difference may be due to quasi-apparent competition effects elicited to ants farming ME aphids, and preferentially actively eliminating or disturbing MA aphids. In terms of population genetics, both aphids showed extreme genetic heterogeneity within a metapopulation structure, ME more than MA, i.e. higher FST values, ~ 0.4 vs. 0.15, respectively, and limited levels of interpopulation gene flow. Subpopulations often deviated from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and showed linkage disequilibria, as expected in animals with extended parthenogenetic reproduction, and had positive FIS values for most large samples, suggesting inbreeding, and possibly philopatry, certainly in ME. Hierarchical analysis (allele range and number per locus, analysis of molecular variance and FST) strongly suggested that the plant rather than site governs the level of genetic variation. Bayesian clustering analysis revealed that both species had heterogeneous historical genetic patterning, with K (number of subgroups) ranging from 3-7. Evidence is also provided from isolation by distance (IBD) and private allele analyses, that in MA, the presence of winged autumn males, absent in ME where males are wingless, influences comparative population genetic structuring, such that ME subpopulations are comparatively more inbred and genetically differentiated than MA subpopulations. Lastly, additional spatial arrangement (ALLELES-IN-SPACE) analysis showed that in both species, certain subpopulations were genetically isolated from the remainder, probably due to geographical barriers, including intervening buildings and woods. As such, the biology of these tansy aphids living in semi-natural habitats is very different from many pest aphid species examined within agro-ecosystems and infesting ephemeral crops, since the former seem much more reluctant to fly and hence show contrastingly much higher levels of interpopulation divergence, even at small spatial scales as here investigated. Indeed, the number of genotypic clusters found for tansy aphids found using Bayesian approaches is similar to that for the major pest the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae, globally.
Data from: Landscape genetics highlights the role of bank vole metapopulation dynamics in the epidemiology of Puumala hantavirus
Rodent host dynamics and dispersal are thought to be critical for hantavirus epidemiology as they determine pathogen persistence and transmission within and between host populations. We used landscape genetics to investigate how the population dynamics of the bank vole Myodes glareolus, the host of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), vary with forest fragmentation and influence PUUV epidemiology. We sampled vole populations within the Ardennes, a French PUUV endemic area. We inferred demographic features such as population size, isolation and migration with regard to landscape configuration. We next analysed the influence of M. glareolus population dynamics on PUUV spatial distribution. Our results revealed that the global metapopulation dynamics of bank voles were strongly shaped by landscape features, including suitable patch size and connectivity. Large effective size in forest might therefore contribute to the higher observed levels of PUUV prevalence. By contrast, populations from hedge networks highly suffered from genetic drift and appeared strongly isolated from all other populations. This might result in high probabilities of local extinction for both M. glareolus and PUUV. Besides we detected signatures of asymmetric bank vole migration from forests to hedges. These movements were likely to sustain PUUV in fragmented landscapes. In conclusion, our study provided arguments in favour of source-sink dynamics shaping PUUV persistence and spread in heterogeneous, western European temperate landscapes. It illustrated the potential contribution of landscape genetics to the understanding of the epidemiological processes occurring at this local scale.
Data from: A model for non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics utilizing data on species occupancy, patch ages and landscape history
1. The distribution pattern of many species reflects the past rather than the current structure of landscapes. Consequently, species are most often not in equilibrium with the current landscape structure. Yet this is a well-known fact, there is no appropriate approach to estimate the colonization rate of non-equilibrium species based on only data on the species occurrence pattern in the landscape. 2. We present an approach to estimate the colonization rate of non-equilibrium metapopulations. The approach requires only data on species presence/absence among its patches (occurrence pattern), data on patch ages and data on the historic distribution of the patches in the landscape. By estimating the past occurrence patterns and colonization events leading to the current pattern of occupied and non-occupied patches, we estimate the colonization rate, including the dispersal kernel. We also show how to estimate effects of local patch conditions and how to include an independent estimate of the local extinction rate based on other data. We use nine epiphytic lichen species confined to beech trees to illustrate the method. 3. Five species had restricted dispersal range, between 200 and 4700 m, and their colonization rate decreased with increasing fragmentation. Species colonization rates were related to niche width. Among the demographic parameters, the force of colonization was more important than the dispersal range in explaining the colonization rates. Local patch conditions did not explain the colonization probability of any species. In metapopulation projections that did not account for restricted dispersal range, higher future metapopulation sizes were projected. 4. Synthesis. The presented approach uses data on only species occurrence, patch age and landscape history to estimate the species colonization rate and dispersal kernel. It can also utilize independent data on local extinction rate. Rather than identifying factors explaining the occurrence pattern, the model estimates the rate of change in the occurrence pattern. This dynamic modelling allows testing general and applied questions on the dynamics or viability of metapopulations of sessile species. The approach is applicable for species whose distribution pattern reflects the past rather than the current landscape structure, e.g. certain epiphytes and ground-floor plants.
Data from: Metapopulation dynamics of the mistletoe and its host in savanna areas with different fire occurrence
Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads.
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