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20 results for “Metapopulation models”
Code and initial metapopulation data for model construction and simulation analyses for: Genetic rescue from protected areas is modulated by migration, hunting rate and timing of harvest
<p>Migrants from protected areas may buffer the risk of harvest-induced evolutionary changes in exploited populations that face strong selective harvest pressures in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Understanding the mechanisms favouring genetic rescue through migration could help ensure sustainable harvest outside protected areas and conserve genetic diversity inside those areas. We developed a stochastic individual-based metapopulation model to evaluate the potential for migration from protected areas to mitigate the evolutionary consequences of selective harvest. We parameterized the model with detailed data from individual monitoring of two populations of bighorn sheep subjected to trophy hunting. We tracked horn length through time in a metapopulation including large protected and trophy-hunted populations connected through male breeding migrations. We quantified and compared declines in horn length and rescue potential under various combinations of migration rate, hunting rate in hunted areas and temporal overlap in timing of harvest and migrations, which affects the migrants' survival and chances to breed within exploited areas. Our simulations suggest that the effects of size-selective harvest on male horn length in hunted populations can be dampened or avoided if harvest pressure is low, migration rate is substantial, and migrants have a low risk of being shot. Intense size-selective harvest impacts the phenotypic and genetic diversity in horn length, and population structure through changes in proportions of large-horned males, sex ratio and age structure. When hunting pressure is high and overlaps with male migrations, effects of selective removal also emerge in the protected population, so that instead of a genetic rescue of hunted populations, our model predicts undesirable effects inside protected areas. Our results stress the importance of a metapopulational approach to management, to promote genetic rescue from protected areas and limit ecological and evolutionary impacts of harvest on both harvested and protected populations.</p>
Code and initial metapopulation data for model construction and simulation analyses for: Genetic rescue from protected areas is modulated by migration, hunting rate and timing of harvest
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Data from: Characterizing morphological (co)variation using structural equation models: body size, allometric relationships and evolvability in a house sparrow metapopulation
Body size plays a key role in the ecology and evolution of all organisms. Therefore, quantifying the sources of morphological (co)variation, dependent and independent of body size, is of key importance when trying to understand and predict responses to selection. We combine structural equation modeling with quantitative genetics analyses to study morphological (co)variation in a meta-population of house sparrows (Passer domesticus). As expected, we found evidence of a latent variable 'body size', causing genetic and environmental covariation between morphological traits. Estimates of conditional evolvability show that allometric relationships constrain the independent evolution of house sparrow morphology. We also found spatial differences in general body size and its allometric relationships. On islands where birds are more dispersive and mobile, individuals were smaller and had proportionally longer wings for their body size. While in islands where sparrows are more sedentary and nest in dense colonies, individuals were larger and had proportionally longer tarsi for their body size. We corroborated these results using simulations and show that our analyses produce unbiased allometric slope estimates. This study highlights that in the short term allometric relationships may constrain phenotypic evolution, but that in the long term selection pressures can also shape allometric relationships.
MetaSqueeze: A spatially-explicit metapopulation model for Banksia hookeriana in south-west Australia
<p>Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire-adapted plants in fire-prone regions such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire-killed shrub <em>Banksia hookeriana</em> dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long-distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post-fire wind and bird-mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process-based models are one of the most suitable approaches to systematically explore the potential role of metapopulation dynamics and its underlying ecological assumptions for fire-prone ecosystems. Here we extend a recent mechanistic, process-based, spatially implicit population model for the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species <em>B</em><em>.</em><em> hookeriana</em> to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. We systematically tested the effects of different ecological processes and assumptions on metapopulation dynamics under past (1988–2002) and current (2003–2017) climatic conditions, including (i) effects of different spatiotemporal fires, (ii) effects of (likely) reduced intraspecific plant competition under current conditions, and (iii) effects of variation in plant performance among and within patches. In general, metapopulation dynamics had the potential to increase the overall regional persistence of <em>B</em><em>.</em><em> hookeriana</em>. However, increased population persistence only occurred under specific optimistic assumptions. In both climate scenarios, the highest persistence occurred with larger fires and intermediate to long inter-fire intervals. The assumption of lower intraspecific plant competition caused by lower densities under current conditions alone was not sufficient to increase persistence significantly. To achieve long-term persistence (defined as > 400 years) it was necessary to additionally consider empirically observed variation in plant performance among and within patches, i.e., improved habitat quality in some large habitat patches (≥ seven) that could function as source patches and a higher survival rate and seed production for a subset of plants, specifically the top 25% of flower producers based on current climate conditions monitoring data. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source-sink dynamic state. Based on our findings, we recommend increased research efforts to understand the consequences of intraspecific trait variation on plant demographics, emphasizing the variation of individual traits both among and within populations. From a conservation perspective, we encourage fire and land managers to revise their prescribed fire plans, which are typically short interval, small fires, as they conflict with the ecologically appropriate spatio-temporal fire regime for <em>B. hookeriana</em>, and likely as well for many other fire-killed species.</p>
Vortex input files -- Linking habitat and population viability analysis models of a metapopulation of Florida scrub-jays
<p>Vortex input files for manuscript "<span>Linking </span><span><span>habitat and population viability analysis models to account for <span>vegetation dynamics, habitat fragmentation, and social behavior of a metapopulation of Florida scrub-jays</span></span></span>" by R. C. Lacy, D. B. Breininger, et al. </p>
Coupled stochastic modelling of hierarchical channel network dynamics and metapopulation persistency - Dataset
<p>Dynamic changes in the active portion of stream networks represent a phenomenon common to diverse climates and geologic settings. However, the ecological implications of river network expansions/retractions remain poorly understood owing to operational difficulties in mechanistically describing these processes at the relevant spatio-temporal scales. Here we present a novel Bayesian framework for the simulation of event-based channel network dynamics capitalizing on the concept of "hierarchical structuring of temporary streams" - a general principle to identify the activation/deactivation order of network nodes. The framework incorporates a dynamic version of a stochastic occupancy metapopulation model, and is used to analyze the impact of pulsing river networks on species persistence in different scenarios. Climate strongly controls temporal variations of the active length, influencing the preferential configuration of the active channels and the speed of network retraction during drying. We also identify a climate-dependent detrimental effect of network dynamics on species spread and persistence. This effect is enhanced by dry climates, where flashy expansions and retractions of the flowing channels induce metapopulation extinction. Survival probabilities are particularly reduced in settings where the spatial heterogeneity of network connectivity is pronounced. The proposed framework provides novel insight on the multi-faced ecological legacies of channel network dynamics.</p>
Coupled stochastic modelling of hierarchical channel network dynamics and metapopulation persistency - Dataset
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Data from: Eco-evolutionary metapopulation dynamics of Batesian mimicry: Conditions for mimics without models
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Data from: Characterizing morphological (co)variation using structural equation models: body size, allometric relationships and evolvability in a house sparrow metapopulation
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Code for: A metapopulation model of social group dynamics and disease applied to Yellowstone wolves
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MetaSqueeze: A spatially-explicit metapopulation model for Banksia hookeriana in south-west Australia
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Stan code from: Simulation modeling reveals the evolutionary role of landscape shape and species dispersal on genetic variation within a metapopulation
Different shapes of landscape boundaries can affect the habitat networks within them and consequently the spatial genetic-patterns of a metapopulation. In this study, we used a mechanistic framework to evaluate the effects of landscape shape, through watershed elongation, on genetic divergence among populations at the metapopulation scale. Empirical genetic data from four, sympatric stream-macroinvertebrates having aerial adults were collected from streams in Japan to determine the roles of species-specific dispersal strategies on metapopulation genetics. Simulation results indicated that watershed elongation allows the formation of river networks with fewer branches and larger topographic constraints. This results in decreased interpopulation connectivity but a lower level of spatial isolation of distal populations (e.g., those found in headwaters) occurring in the landscapes examined. Distal populations had higher genetic divergence when their downstream-biased dispersal (relative to upstream- and/or overland-biased dispersal) was high. This underscores the importance of distal populations influencing genetic divergence at the metapopulation scale for species having downstream-biased dispersal. In turn, lower genetic divergence was observed under watershed elongation when the genetic isolation of distal populations was decreased in such species. This strong association between landscape shape and evolutionary processes highlights the importance of natural, spatial architecture in assessing the effectiveness of conservation and management strategies.
Data: Using environmental DNA and occupancy modeling to estimate rangewide metapopulation dynamics
<p>We demonstrate the power of combining two emergent tools for resolving rangewide metapopulation dynamics. First, we employed environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys to efficiently generate multi-season rangewide site occupancy histories. Second, we developed a novel<i> </i>dynamic, spatial multiscale occupancy model to estimate metapopulation dynamics. The model incorporates spatial relationships, explicitly accounts for non-detection bias and allows direct evaluation of the drivers of extinction and colonization. We applied these tools to examine metapopulation dynamics of endangered tidewater goby, a species endemic to California estuarine habitats. We analyzed rangewide eDNA data from 190 geographically isolated sites (813 total water samples) surveyed from two years (2016 and 2017). Rangewide estimates of the proportion of sites that were occupied varied little between 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.51). However, there was evidence of extinction and colonization dynamics. The probability of extinction of an occupied site (0.106) and probability of colonization of an unoccupied site (0.085) were nearly equal. Stability in site occupancy proportions combined with nearly equal rates of extinction and colonization suggests a dynamic equilibrium between the two years surveyed. Assessment of covariate effects revealed that colonization probability increased as the number of occupied neighboring sites increased and as distance between occupied sites decreased. We show that eDNA surveys can rapidly provide a snapshot of a species distribution over a broad geographic range, and when these surveys are paired with occupancy modeling, can uncover metapopulation dynamics and their drivers.</p>
Data from: A model for non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics utilizing data on species occupancy, patch ages and landscape history
1. The distribution pattern of many species reflects the past rather than the current structure of landscapes. Consequently, species are most often not in equilibrium with the current landscape structure. Yet this is a well-known fact, there is no appropriate approach to estimate the colonization rate of non-equilibrium species based on only data on the species occurrence pattern in the landscape. 2. We present an approach to estimate the colonization rate of non-equilibrium metapopulations. The approach requires only data on species presence/absence among its patches (occurrence pattern), data on patch ages and data on the historic distribution of the patches in the landscape. By estimating the past occurrence patterns and colonization events leading to the current pattern of occupied and non-occupied patches, we estimate the colonization rate, including the dispersal kernel. We also show how to estimate effects of local patch conditions and how to include an independent estimate of the local extinction rate based on other data. We use nine epiphytic lichen species confined to beech trees to illustrate the method. 3. Five species had restricted dispersal range, between 200 and 4700 m, and their colonization rate decreased with increasing fragmentation. Species colonization rates were related to niche width. Among the demographic parameters, the force of colonization was more important than the dispersal range in explaining the colonization rates. Local patch conditions did not explain the colonization probability of any species. In metapopulation projections that did not account for restricted dispersal range, higher future metapopulation sizes were projected. 4. Synthesis. The presented approach uses data on only species occurrence, patch age and landscape history to estimate the species colonization rate and dispersal kernel. It can also utilize independent data on local extinction rate. Rather than identifying factors explaining the occurrence pattern, the model estimates the rate of change in the occurrence pattern. This dynamic modelling allows testing general and applied questions on the dynamics or viability of metapopulations of sessile species. The approach is applicable for species whose distribution pattern reflects the past rather than the current landscape structure, e.g. certain epiphytes and ground-floor plants.
Data from: A model for non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics utilizing data on species occupancy, patch ages and landscape history
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Stan code from: Simulation modeling reveals the evolutionary role of landscape shape and species dispersal on genetic variation within a metapopulation
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Data: Using environmental DNA and occupancy modeling to estimate rangewide metapopulation dynamics
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Network topology and patch connectivity affect dynamics in experimental and model metapopulations
<p>Biological populations are rarely isolated in space and instead interact with others via dispersal in metapopulations. Theory predicts that network connectivity patterns can have critical effects on network robustness, as certain topologies, such as scale-free networks, are more tolerant to disturbances than other patterns. However, at present, experimental evidence of how these topologies affect population dynamics in a metapopulation framework is lacking. We used experimental metapopulations of the aquatic protist <i>Paramecium tetraurelia</i> to determine how network topology influences occupation patterns. We created metapopulations engineered to be comparable in linkage density, but differing in their degree distribution. We compared random networks to scale-free networks by evaluating local population occupancy and abundance throughout 18-30 protist generations. In parallel, we used simulations to explore differences in patch occupation patterns among topologies. Under one scenario, random metapopulations of P. tetraurelia reached higher abundance and higher occupancy (proportion of occupied patches) compared to scale-free systems in both experimental and simulated systems, while in the other both types of metapopulations performed similarly. Increasing patch degree (i.e., number of connections per patch) reduced the probability of extinction of local populations in both types of networks. We suggest the interaction between colonization/extinction rates and network topology alters the likelihood of rescue effects which results in differential patterns of occupancy and abundance in metapopulations.</p>
Supplementary code for: Polygenic local adaptation in metapopulations: a stochastic eco-evolutionary model
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Network topology and patch connectivity affect dynamics in experimental and model metapopulations
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Allen Brain Atlas
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International Brain Laboratory public data
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OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.