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11 results for “Northern Great Plains”
Precipitation, low-level jet, and geopotential height data for analyzing sources of predictability in the US northern Great Plains
<p>Dec 15, 2021</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Precipitation, low-level jet, and geopotential height data for analyzing sources of predictability in the US northern Great Plains</strong></p> <p> </p> <p>Carlos M. Carrillo and Francisco Muñoz-Arriola</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Motivation</strong></p> <p>The data presented here was used to investigate the uskills of precipitation in the US northern Great Plains, and it can be cited as described below. The original data for producing this data is from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) retrospective reanalysis and reforecast as well as precipitation data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Also, gridded data is from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>License </strong></p> <p>Creative Commons CC-BY</p> <p><strong>Disclaimer</strong></p> <p>The data provided in the files is provided as is. Despite our best efforts at filtering out potential issues, some information could be erroneous.</p> <p><strong>Description of the dataset</strong></p> <p>Files are provided with the following features:</p> <p><strong>List of cases: </strong></p> <p> files.0.00.dy.txt</p> <p><strong>Low-level jet (or the GP-LLJ index)</strong></p> <p>Originally located at /home/cmc542/2019/sum-pred/eof/cfs/0.35.cases/</p> <p>Master file:<strong> LLJ_pc_corr_1D_pdf_full.m</strong></p> <p>With input data</p> <p> from CFS models,</p> <p> eof1.v850.cfs.1982-2009.dy.tar</p> <p> pc1.v850.cfs.1982-2009.dy.tar</p> <p> from NARR model,</p> <p> pc1.vwnd.narr.1982-2009.tar</p> <p><strong>The geopotential height (or CGT index): </strong></p> <p>Originally located at /home/cmc542/2019/sum-pred/eof/cfs/0.35.cases/</p> <p>Master file:<strong> Z200_mode_corr_1D_pdf_full.m</strong></p> <p>With input data</p> <p> xt-reco-z200.Full.123.z200.cfs.1982-2009.12-60.tar</p> <p> xt-reco-z200.Full.z200.narr.1982-2009.bin.tar</p> <p><strong>Precipitation at the US Great Plains:</strong></p> <p>Originally located at /home/cmc542/2019/sum-pred/clim/yrcases</p> <p>Master file: <strong>prec_corr_cfs_1D_pdf_full.m</strong></p> <p>With input data:</p> <p> prec.cfs.MW.1982-2009.tar</p> <p> prec.cpc.MW.1982-2009.tar</p> <p><strong>Correlation patterns:</strong></p> <p> Precipitation: PREC.NGP.corr.txt</p> <p> LLJ: LLJ.pcs.corr.narr.pdf.txt</p> <p> Z200: Z200.pcs.corr.narr.pdf.txt</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Disclaimer</strong></p> <p>The data provided in the files is provided as is. Despite our best efforts at filtering out potential issues, some information could be erroneous.</p> <p><strong>Description of the dataset</strong></p> <p>Files are provided with the following features:</p> <p><strong>List of cases: </strong></p> <p> files.0.00.dy.txt</p> <p><strong>Low-level jet (or the GP-LLJ index)</strong></p> <p>Originally located at /home/cmc542/2019/sum-pred/eof/cfs/0.35.cases/</p> <p>Master file:<strong> LLJ_pc_corr_1D_pdf_full.m</strong></p> <p>With input data</p> <p> from CFS models,</p> <p><strong> </strong>eof1.v850.cfs.1982-2009.dy.tar</p> <p> pc1.v850.cfs.1982-2009.dy.tar</p> <p> from NARR model,</p> <p> pc1.vwnd.narr.1982-2009.tar</p> <p><strong>The geopotential height (or CGT index): </strong></p> <p>Originally located at /home/cmc542/2019/sum-pred/eof/cfs/0.35.cases/</p> <p>Master file:<strong> Z200_mode_corr_1D_pdf_full.m</strong></p> <p>With input data</p> <p> xt-reco-z200.Full.123.z200.cfs.1982-2009.12-60.tar</p> <p> xt-reco-z200.Full.z200.narr.1982-2009.bin.tar</p> <p><strong>Precipitation at the US Great Plains:</strong></p> <p>Originally located at /home/cmc542/2019/sum-pred/clim/yrcases</p> <p>Master file: <strong>prec_corr_cfs_1D_pdf_full.m</strong></p> <p>With input data:</p> <p> prec.cfs.MW.1982-2009.tar</p> <p> prec.cpc.MW.1982-2009.tar</p> <p><strong>Correlation patterns:</strong></p> <p> Precipitation: PREC.NGP.corr.txt</p> <p> LLJ: LLJ.pcs.corr.narr.pdf.txt</p> <p> Z200: Z200.pcs.corr.narr.pdf.txt</p> <p><strong>Credit</strong></p> <p>Carlos M. Carrillo and Francisco Muñoz-Arriola, 2021: “Sources of Subseasonal Predictability of Rainfall in the Northern Great Plains”, <em>Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology</em>. In review.</p> <p><strong>Grant funding</strong></p> <p>This research was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute (DWFI) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), and the UNL’s Layman Award.</p>
Large contribution of woody plant expansion to recent vegetative greening of the Northern Great Plains
<p><strong>Aim:</strong> Extensive portions of high-latitude grasslands worldwide have recently experienced increased vegetative productivity (i.e., greening) and have undergone a rapid transition towards woody plant dominance via the process of woody plant expansion (WPE). This raises the underlying question: To what degree are WPE and greening spatiotemporally linked? Given that these vegetative changes are predicted to continue, we seek to understand how recent changes in vegetation extent and productivity have interacted under recent climate change and anthropogenic disturbance to provide insights surrounding the future trajectory of temperate grasslands broadly.</p> <p><strong>Location: </strong>Northern Great Plains (NGP), North America</p> <p><strong>Taxon:</strong> Woody plants</p> <p><strong>Methods:</strong> Greening was measured as the significant increase in three metrics between 2000 and 2019: leaf area index (LAI), annual maximum normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI), and annual mean NDVI. WPE was measured as the significant proportional increase in percent tree cover change between 2000 and 2019 in grasslands. We then examine these variables across a host of 26 potential driving variables.</p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> We show that average proportional greening increased by 0.2-1.3% yr <sup>-1</sup> (depending on metric), and proportional WPE increased by 6.9% yr <sup>-1</sup> since 2000 across the NGP. Both changes are largely driven by the absence of wildfire and changing climate. Furthermore, WPE was spatially coherent and positively associated with a large component of recent greening, as revealed by their coupling across 34.1-40.6% of grassland area and as evidenced by the 9.7-19.7% of the variability in greening explained by WPE.</p> <p><strong>Main conclusions: </strong>WPE and greening are spatiotemporally coupled across large portions of the NGP. Under continued climate change and wildfire suppression, WPE and greening are likely to continue across large swathes of grasslands globally. Furthermore, our results show that using a single greening metric may be insufficient to capture the large-scale vegetative changes such as the expansion of woody vegetation.</p>
Community level phylogenetic diversity does not differ between rare and common lineages across tallgrass prairies in northern Great Plains
<p class="MsoNormal">In some cases, rare lineages provide resistance to invasions, serve as keystone species, and contribute unique functional or phylogenetic diversity to their communities. In other cases, rare species may be functionally redundant with common species and do not significantly contribute to phylogenetic diversity. How rare and common species coexist and contribute to local species pools may depend upon attributes of their communities and remains an open question in ecology. Niche differentiation has served as an explanation for species coexistence, and phylogenetic relatedness provides a means to approximate how ecologically similar species are to each other. To explore the contribution of rare species to community phylogenetic diversity, we sampled twenty-one plant communities across the Prairie Coteau ecoregion, home of the largest tracts of untilled northern tallgrass prairie and of high conservation concern. We used breakpoint analysis through iterative addition of less abundant species to the phylogenetic tree for each community. We also assessed the phylogenetic signal of abundance classes using Blomberg's K statistic and calculated the phylogenetic similarity between rare and common species using a phylogenetic beta diversity metric (D<sub>nn</sub>). To estimate the phylogenetic structuring of these prairie communities, we calculated two common metrics that capture evolutionary relatedness between species (MPD, and MNTD) and examine the correlation between these metrics and species richness. Overall, we found rare species do not contribute higher levels of phylogenetic diversity than more common species in the Prairie Coteau ecoregion. Eight of 21 communities had significant breakpoints, where the addition of a less common species resulted in a shift in phylogenetic diversity, with only four communities having an increasing trend for the rarest species. Phylogenetic signal for abundance was low and unsignificant across 18 communities, while four sites did show significant low phylogenetic signal. We additionally found our communities had lower phylogenetic diversity than expected from the regional species pool. Finally, we found weak to no correlation when using MPD and MNTD. Our results indicate niche differentiation does not explain rare species persistence in tallgrass prairies. We found species were more closely related than expected from random community assembly, suggesting high functional redundancy within this system. This is promising for the long term viability of this ecosystem, but only insofar as enough species remain in the system to create redundancy. With ongoing biodiversity loss, it is essential we understand the role rare species play in their communities. Phylogenetic diversity could be an important tool for researchers and managers to utilize for conservation of critically threatened systems such as tallgrass prairies.</p>
Community level phylogenetic diversity does not differ between rare and common lineages across tallgrass prairies in northern Great Plains
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Large contribution of woody plant expansion to recent vegetative greening of the Northern Great Plains
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Multi-proxy paleolimnological records provide evidence for a shift to a new ecosystem state in the Northern Great Plains, USA
<p>Wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the North American Northern Great Plains perform multiple ecosystem services and are biodiversity hotspots. However, climatological changes can result in sudden shifts in these important ecosystems. For example, marked increases in precipitation in the last few decades have resulted in a widespread shift in wetlands across the Prairie Pothole Region to a new ecohydrological state. We used multi-proxy analyses (diatom community composition and invertebrate stable isotopes) of 210Pb-dated sediment cores from two adjacent, but morphologically and hydrologically different, prairie-pothole wetlands to assess the effects of hydroclimatic variability on these wetland ecosystems. Our results provide evidence that the recent ecohydrological shift in the region's wetlands is unprecedented over the past ca.178 years. Oxygen stable isotopes in chironomid head capsules provide a record of paleo-hydrology changes. The most recent sediments (i.e., those deposited after the state shift) from both wetlands revealed novel changes in diatom communities that differed greatly from earlier community compositions. Additionally, a depleted signal in deuterium and 13C carbon stable isotopes observed in chironomid head capsules and Daphnia ephippia, respectively after 1993 is likely related to an increase in methane production in these wetlands. Our study highlights the importance of considering basin morphometry including whether a wetland has an overflow point, and multiple biological indicators to study climate-change influences on freshwater ecosystems. Research using these techniques can lead to an improved understanding of recent ecosystem shifts, an understanding that will be essential for future climate-change adaptation and mitigation in this ecologically important region.</p>
Multi-proxy paleolimnological records provide evidence for a shift to a new ecosystem state in the Northern Great Plains, USA
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Code from: Metrics for conservation success: using the bird‐friendliness index to evaluate grassland and aridland bird community resilience across the Northern Great Plains ecosystem
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Data from: Buteo nesting ecology: evaluating nesting of Swainson's hawks in the northern Great Plains
Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni) are long-distance migratory raptors that nest primarily in isolated trees located in areas of high grassland density. In recent years, anthropogenic conversion of grassland habitat has raised concerns about the status of the breeding population in the northern Great Plains. In 2013, we initiated a study to investigate the influence of extrinsic factors influencing Swainson's hawk nesting ecology in north-central South Dakota and south-central North Dakota. Using ground and aerial surveys, we located and monitored nesting Swainson's hawk pairs: 73 in 2013 and 120 in 2014. We documented 98 successful breeding attempts that fledged 163 chicks; 1.52 and 1.72 fledglings per successful nest in 2013 and 2014, respectively. We used Program MARK to evaluate the influence of land cover on nest survival. The top model, SDist2Farm+%Hay, indicated that nest survival (fledging at least one chick) decreased as nests were located farther from farm sites and as the percent of hay cover increased within 1200-m of the nest site (34.4%; 95% CI = 27.6%–42.3%). We used logistic regression analysis to evaluate the influence of landscape variables on nest-site selection; Swainson's hawks selected for nest sites located closer to roads. We suggest that tree belts associated with farm sites, whether occupied or not, provide critical breeding sites for Swainson's hawks. Additionally, poor breeding success may be related to the late migratory behavior of this species which requires them to occupy marginal habitat due to other raptors occupying the most suitable habitat prior to Swainson's hawks arriving to the breeding grounds.
Data from: Testing rangeland health theory in the Northern Great Plains
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Data from: Buteo nesting ecology: evaluating nesting of Swainson's hawks in the northern Great Plains
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