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29 results for “apparent survival”
Breeding season forest fragment size does not create negative carry-over for adult Wood Thrushes on fall migration timing or apparent annual survival
<p>Although carry-over effects related to wintering habitat quality are known to influence population dynamics of migratory songbirds, the presence of breeding season carry-over is under-studied in full annual cycle models. To test whether forest fragment size on the breeding grounds can impose negative carry-over effects on a migratory songbird, we fitted adult Wood Thrushes with one-year coded radio-tags in forest fragments ranging from 11–499 ha in southwestern Ontario during the 2016–2019 breeding seasons and utilized automated telemetry via the Motus Wildlife Tracking System to record fall migration timing and returns the following spring (apparent annual survival). To examine short-term effects of fragment size on breeding females, during the 2018 and 2019 breeding seasons, we collected blood samples during incubation to measure corticosterone levels and tracked complete reproductive success and nest timing. We found that Wood Thrushes breeding in small forest fragments were not subject to strong negative effects on body condition (mass, corticosterone), reproductive success, or timing of the last nest of the season. Next, we found that the onset of fall migration departure was not delayed for birds nesting in small fragments and that apparent annual survival was not linked to breeding fragment size. This suggests that habitat differences linked to fragment size were not strong enough to trigger the kinds of negative carry-over effects (delayed migration, lower reproductive success) that have been documented in other species as a result of poor wintering ground habitat quality. The strength of breeding fragment size-induced seasonal carry-over remains a critical gap in full annual cycle models for other declining migratory songbirds. Our findings suggest that while the importance of preserving large forested areas is often prioritized in conservation projects, small forest fragments can also have high conservation value.</p>
Natal forest fragment size does not predict fledgling, pre-migration, or apparent annual survival in Wood Thrushes
<p>Determining the drivers and mechanisms for first-year survival of migratory songbirds has been an understudied area in population dynamics due to the difficulty in tracking juveniles once they have dispersed from the natal site. With the advancement in miniaturization of radio-tags (battery life ~400 days) and the development of the Motus Wildlife Tracking System, we tracked 189 Wood Thrush nestlings through independence and to fall migration departure, and their return the following spring. Natal forest fragment size was not a good predictor of survival at any of the main life stages and onset of fall migration was predicted by fledge date but not natal fragment size. The percent forest cover in the landscape (at 2-km scale) had only a weak effect on fledgling survival. Survival probability was lowest for fledglings on their natal territory (70%, or 0.86 weekly survival probability), very high for juveniles as they explored the local landscape prior to fall migration (89%, or 0.99 weekly survival probability) and low during their first migration and wintering season (26%, or 0.95 weekly survival probability). To our knowledge, this is the first study to directly estimate annual apparent juvenile survival in a migratory songbird using year-round radio-tracking. Our study suggests that small forest fragments are important for the conservation for forest songbirds because they can support high survival of juveniles. </p>
Natal forest fragment size does not predict fledgling, pre-migration, or apparent annual survival in Wood Thrushes
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Breeding season forest fragment size does not create negative carry-over for adult Wood Thrushes on fall migration timing or apparent annual survival
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Low first-year apparent survival of passerines in abandoned fields in northwestern Russia
<p>First-year survival probability of migratory passerines during the period between fledging and first reproduction is a highly variable parameter having a major effect on population dynamics. We used a long-term mark–recapture dataset (2002–2018) to examine first-year survival of three passerine species breeding in abandoned agricultural fields of northwestern Russia: the Booted Warbler <i>Iduna caligata</i>, the Whinchat <i>Saxicola rubetra</i> and the Western Yellow Wagtail <i>Motacilla flava</i>. We banded 3457 nestlings including 1363 Booted Warblers, 1699 Whinchats and 395 Yellow Wagtails and resighted 12 Booted Warblers, 29 Whinchats and 13 Yellow Wagtails in the year after fledging. We evaluated first-year apparent survival rates using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in MARK within the multispecies approach. We tested effect of fledge date on the first-year apparent survival. In all focal species first-year apparent survival rates were extremely low and reached the lower limits known for migratory passerines. We found no differences in first-year survival rates among the three species: estimated average first-year apparent survival rate of all species was 0.05±0.01. The fledge date had a considerable impact on first-year survival rate: later fledge dates negatively affected first-year survival. We suggest that first-year apparent survival rates in our study were low due to low natal philopatry and high mortality in the postfledging period. Low apparent first-year survival may be a specific feature of open-nesting birds breeding in abandoned fields that are low-quality habitats because of high predation pressure.</p>
Data from: Apparent annual survival estimates of tropical songbirds better reflect life history variation when based on intensive field methods
Aim: Adult survival is central to theories explaining latitudinal gradients in life history strategies. Life history theory predicts higher adult survival in tropical than north temperate regions given lower fecundity and parental effort. Early studies were consistent with this prediction, but standard-effort netting studies in recent decades suggested that apparent survival rates in temperate and tropical regions strongly overlap. Such results do not fit with life history theory. Targeted marking and resighting of breeding adults yielded higher survival estimates in the tropics, but this approach is thought to overestimate survival because it does not sample social and age classes with lower survival. We compared the effect of field methods on tropical survival estimates and their relationships with life history traits. Location: Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Time period: 2008–2016. Major taxon: Passeriformes. Methods: We used standard-effort netting and resighted individuals of all social and age classes of 18 tropical songbird species over 8 years. We compared apparent survival estimates between these two field methods with differing analytical approaches. Results: Estimated detection and apparent survival probabilities from standard-effort netting were similar to those from other tropical studies that used standard-effort netting. Resighting data verified that a high proportion of individuals that were never recaptured in standard-effort netting remained in the study area, and many were observed breeding. Across all analytical approaches, addition of resighting yielded substantially higher survival estimates than did standard-effort netting alone. These apparent survival estimates were higher than for temperate zone species, consistent with latitudinal differences in life histories. Moreover, apparent survival estimates from addition of resighting, but not from standard-effort netting alone, were correlated with parental effort as measured by egg temperature across species. Main conclusions: Inclusion of resighting showed that standard-effort netting alone can negatively bias apparent survival estimates and obscure life history relationships across latitudes and among tropical species.
Consistent apparent adult survival and nest-site fidelity of Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40-year period
<p>Reliable estimates of adult survival for many shorebird species are lacking. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) methods to provide an estimate of apparent, or local, survival (φ) of a population of Whimbrels, <em>Numenius phaeopus</em>, breeding in the subarctic Churchill, Manitoba region. We used data collected in two time periods: 1973–1976 and 2010–2014. We also quantified nest-site fidelity in 2010–2014 to provide context to our apparent survival estimates because mark-recapture analyses cannot distinguish between mortality and permanent emigration. The most parsimonious CJS model did not include effects of sex or time on apparent adult survival in either period (φ = 0.76 ± 0.13 SE; φ = 0.75 ± 0.04 SE, 1973 – 1976 and 2010 – 2014, respectively). Additionally, observations of marked Whimbrels between 2010 and 2019 (n = 124) showed that 61 of the 105 marked individuals (58.1%) were resighted. These estimates of return rates are, as expected, much lower than estimates of apparent survival. The median year-to-year distance between nests (n = 139) from 2010 to 2014 was 198 ± 88 m SE and did not differ significantly (<em>p</em> = 0.84) between females (<em>x</em> ̅ = 721.9 ± 119.8 m SE) and males (<em>x</em> ̅ = 720.3 ± 83.1 m SE). If our apparent survival estimate is indicative of true survivorship, then adult mortality during the nonbreeding season has remained constant over the last five decades, implying that the recent decline in Whimbrel populations may stem largely from reduced fecundity, including egg or juvenile survival, rather than primarily from reduced adult survival.</p>
Low first-year apparent survival of passerines in abandoned fields in northwestern Russia
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Data from: Weather extremes in the Mediterranean winter are associated with reduced apparent survival and delayed initiation of egg-laying in a migratory raptor
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Data from: Apparent annual survival estimates of tropical songbirds better reflect life history variation when based on intensive field methods
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Data from: Apparent annual survival of adult <em>Vermivora chrysoptera</em> (Golden-winged Warbler) does not differ by sex or region
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Consistent apparent adult survival and nest-site fidelity of Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada over a 40-year period
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Beak morphology predicts apparent survival of crossbills: due to selective survival or selective dispersal?
<p>Dozens of morphologically differentiated populations, subspecies and species of crossbills (genus Loxia) exist. It has been suggested that this divergence is due to variation in the conifer cones that each population specialises upon, requiring a specific beak size to efficiently separate the cone scales. If so, apparent survival should depend on beak size. To test this hypothesis, we undertook multievent capture-recapture modelling for 6,844 individuals monitored during 27 years in a Pyrenean Common crossbill (L. curvirostra) population in a forest of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata). Apparent survival was indeed related to beak width, resulting in stabilizing selection around an optimum that was close to the observed mean beak width, indicating that local crossbill beak morphology is adapted to the conifer they feed upon. Both natural selection (selective mortality) and selective emigration of maladapted individuals may explain our findings. As is often the case in capture-recapture analyses but rarely recognised, we could not formally decompose apparent survival into selective mortality versus selective permanent emigration. Nonetheless, there are several indications that selective permanent emigration should not be fully excluded. First, natural selection by itself would have to be unusually strong compared to other empirical estimates to create the observed pattern of apparent survival. Second, the observed mean beak width was a bit lower than the estimated optimum beak width. This can be explained by immigration of crossbills with smaller beaks originating from southern populations, which may subsequently have left the study area permanently in response to low food intake. This is in line with a detected transient effect in the data, yet apparently little influx from crossbills from northern Europe. When permanent emigration is phenotypically selective this will have ecological and evolutionary consequences, so this possibility deserves more attention in general.</p>
Data from: Decline in abundance and apparent survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence
Estimates of abundance and survivorship provide quantifiable measures to monitor populations and to define and understand their conservation status. This study investigated changes in abundance and survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) in the context of anthropogenic pressures and changing environmental conditions. A long-term data set, consisting of 35 years of photo-identification surveys and comprising more than 5,000 identifications of 507 individuals, formed the basis of this mark-recapture study. Based on model selection using corrected Akaike Information Criterion, the most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber model included a linear temporal trend in non-calf apparent survival rates with a sharp decline in the last five years of the study and a median survival rate of 0.946 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.910-0.967). To account for capture heterogeneity due to divergent patterns of site fidelity, agglomerative hierarchical cluster (AHC) analysis was employed to categorise individuals based on their annual and survey site fidelity indices. However, the negative trend in survivorship remained and was corroborated by a significant decline in the estimated super-population size from 335 (95% CI 321-348) individuals in 2004-2010 to 291 (95% CI 270-312) individuals in 2010-2016. Concurrently, a negative trend was estimated in recruitment to the population, supported by a sharp decrease in the number of observed calves. Ship strikes and changes in prey availability are potential drivers of the observed decline in fin whale abundance. The combination of clustering methods with mark-recapture represents a flexible way to investigate the effects of site fidelity on demographic variables and is broadly applicable to other individual-based studies.
Exceptionally high apparent adult survival in three tropical species of plovers in Madagascar
<p>Adult survival is a key component of population dynamics and understanding variation in and the drivers of adult survival rates and longevity is critical for ecological and evolutionary studies, as well as for conservation biology and practice. Tropical species of landbirds are often selected to have higher adult survival due to high nest predation rates, but it is unclear if the same patterns occur in other avian lineages with different life history strategies. Here, we investigate adult survival of three sympatrically breeding species of shorebirds in south-west Madagascar: the endemic and endangered Madagascar Plover <i>Charadrius thoracicus</i>, and two more widely distributed African species: the White-fronted Plover <i>C. marginatus</i> and the Kittlitz's Plover <i>C. pecuarius</i>. Using mark-recapture data from 1843 individuals breeding at an intensely monitored saltmarsh over a 13-year period, we estimated annual rates of apparent survival (φ) corrected for encounter probability. Adult apparent survival rates were high for all three species (mean ± SE): Madagascar (φ<i> </i>= 0.899 ± 0.010) and White-fronted Plovers (φ = 0.923 ± 0.008). Kittlitz's Plovers showed a difference between the first (φ<sup>1</sup> = 0.719 ± 0.026) and subsequent transitions (φ<sup>2+</sup> = 0.892 ± 0.014), suggesting that transient breeders are common in this species. For birds first captured as adults, these survival estimates translate to life-expectancies of 9.72 (± 1.11) years in Kittlitz's plovers, 9.36 (± 0.98) years in Madagascar Plovers and 12.48 (± 1.32) in White-fronted Plovers. We hypothesise that long lifespan could be an adaptation arising from the unique climatic pressures on the island of Madagascar that would otherwise lead to reduced fitness. However, long lifespans may not sufficiently compensate for a reduction in breeding opportunities due to possible climatic disruption in the future. Consequently, at least two of these plover species seem vulnerable to ongoing habitat destruction and changing climate cycles.</p>
Distribution. Balabac, Ramos, and Bugsuk Is, Palawan region, Phillipines. In the late 1990s, a small stock of eight Balabac Chevrotains escaped from their enclosures on Calauit Island, a small island off the coast of Busuanga Island, north of Palawan, where the species had been maintained and bred since 1982. These animals were reported to have increased to at least 21 free-living individuals by 2006. Apparently the species was also introduced to the larger island of Palawan. No recent records confirm that it is still extant there, although unconfirmed reports suggest that it may survive in southern Palawan. in Tragulidae
Distribution. Balabac, Ramos, and Bugsuk Is, Palawan region, Phillipines. In the late 1990s, a small stock of eight Balabac Chevrotains escaped from their enclosures on Calauit Island, a small island off the coast of Busuanga Island, north of Palawan, where the species had been maintained and bred since 1982. These animals were reported to have increased to at least 21 free-living individuals by 2006. Apparently the species was also introduced to the larger island of Palawan. No recent records confirm that it is still extant there, although unconfirmed reports suggest that it may survive in southern Palawan.
Distribution. Sulawesi and adjacent Is (Buton, Kabaena, Muna, Peleng, Lembeh, and on some of the Togian Is); thought to be extinct on Selayar I. Pigs have been widely domesticated through the Indonesian archipelago and beyond. This primarily involved the Eurasian Wild Pig (S. scrofa), but also S. celebensis, the only other species of pig successfully domesticated. Mitochondrial DNA studies of the dispersion of these domesticated forms agree on three major dispersal events, two involving S. scrofa and one S. celebensis. Evidence supports an early human-mediated translocation of S. celebensis to Flores and Timor and two later, separate human-mediated dispersals of domestic pig through islands of SE Asia into Oceania. In addition to Flores and Timor, S. celebensis is also thought to occur in its domesticated form on Halmahera, Lendu, Roti, and Savur Is, and even on Simeulue and Nias Is to the W of Sumatra and far from its island of origin, Sulawesi. In the Moluccas, and possibly elsewhere in this region, introduced S. celebensis are thought to have hybridized with other introduced pigs of S. scrofa derivation, and apparent hybrids between these species are now reported to survive on a number of islands, including Salawatti, Great Kei, Dobu, Seram, Ambon, Bacan, Ternate, Morotai, and New Guinea. It is also reported that in the 19" century the sows of domestic pigs in Sulawesi frequently mated with wild animals, after which they returned to their villages. in Suidae
Distribution. Sulawesi and adjacent Is (Buton, Kabaena, Muna, Peleng, Lembeh, and on some of the Togian Is); thought to be extinct on Selayar I. Pigs have been widely domesticated through the Indonesian archipelago and beyond. This primarily involved the Eurasian Wild Pig (S. scrofa), but also S. celebensis, the only other species of pig successfully domesticated. Mitochondrial DNA studies of the dispersion of these domesticated forms agree on three major dispersal events, two involving S. scrofa and one S. celebensis. Evidence supports an early human-mediated translocation of S. celebensis to Flores and Timor and two later, separate human-mediated dispersals of domestic pig through islands of SE Asia into Oceania. In addition to Flores and Timor, S. celebensis is also thought to occur in its domesticated form on Halmahera, Lendu, Roti, and Savur Is, and even on Simeulue and Nias Is to the W of Sumatra and far from its island of origin, Sulawesi. In the Moluccas, and possibly elsewhere in this region, introduced S. celebensis are thought to have hybridized with other introduced pigs of S. scrofa derivation, and apparent hybrids between these species are now reported to survive on a number of islands, including Salawatti, Great Kei, Dobu, Seram, Ambon, Bacan, Ternate, Morotai, and New Guinea. It is also reported that in the 19" century the sows of domestic pigs in Sulawesi frequently mated with wild animals, after which they returned to their villages.
Data from: Effect of light-level geolocators on apparent survival of two highly aerial swift species
Light-level geolocators are currently widely used to track the migration of small-sized birds, but their potentially detrimental effects on survival of highly aerial species have been poorly investigated so far. We recorded capture-recapture histories of 283 common swifts Apus apus and 107 pallid swifts Apus pallidus breeding in 14 colonies in Italy, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland that were deployed with 10 different types of geolocators ('geolocator birds'), and compared their survival with that of, respectively, 215 common and 101 pallid swifts not equipped with geolocators ('control birds'). We performed both traditional GLMM using return rate as a proxy for survival and mark-recapture models to estimate survival while accounting for recapture probability. In all the analyses, geolocator birds showed reduced apparent survival compared to controls. The extent of the negative effect on survival differed between the species but the direction of the difference between species was opposite in either type of analysis. Geolocator weight was always lower 3% of body mass or less, and did not affect survival per se. Geolocators with a light-stalk, which is used in some geolocator models to reduce light sensor shading by feathers, decreased apparent survival more than models without light-stalk. Apparent survival of geolocator birds significantly varied among sites, being much higher in northern Europe. Despite in our analyses we could only partly account for variable recapture probabilities among sites and for inter-annual variability in survival, our results generally showed that equipping swifts with geolocators decreased their survival prospects, but also that the magnitude of this effect may depend on species-specific traits. These conclusions are in line with those of other studies on aerial foragers. We suggest that future studies tracking the movements of aerial insectivorous birds should use devices designed to minimize drag.
Population dynamics of little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) at summer roosts: apparent survival, fidelity, abundance, and the influence of winter conditions
<ol> <li>White-nose syndrome (WNS) has caused the death of millions of bats, but the impacts have been more difficult to identify in western North America. Understanding how WNS, or other threats, impact western bats may require monitoring other roosts, such as maternity roosts and night roosts, where bats aggregate in large numbers.</li> <li>Little brown bats (<em>Myotis lucifugus</em>) are experiencing some of the greatest declines from WNS. Estimating survival and understanding population dynamics can provide valuable data for assessing population declines and informing conservation efforts.</li> <li>We conducted a 5-year mark-recapture study of two <em>M. lucifugus</em> roosts in Colorado. We used the robust design model to estimate apparent survival, fidelity, and abundance to understand population dynamics, and environmental covariates to understand how summer and winter weather conditions impact adult female survival. We compared the fidelity and capture probability of <em>M. lucifugus</em> between colonies to understand how bats use such roosts.</li> <li>Overwinter survival increased with the number of days with temperatures below freezing (β > 0.100, SE = 0.003), and decreased with the number of days with snow cover (β < -0.40, SE < 0.13). Adult female fidelity was higher at one maternity roost than the other. Overwinter and oversummer adult female survival were high (>0.90), and based on survival estimates and fungal-swabbing results we believe these populations have yet to experience WNS.</li> <li>Recapture of <em>M. lucifugus</em> using antennas that continuously read passive integrated transponder tags allows rigorous estimation of bat population parameters that can elucidate trends in abundance and changes in survival. Monitoring populations at summer roosts can provide unique population ecology data that monitoring hibernacula alone may not. Because few adult males are captured at maternity colonies, and juvenile males have low fidelity, additional effort should focus on understanding male <em>M. lucifugus </em>population dynamics.</li> </ol>
Potential sex-dependent effects of weather on apparent survival of a high-elevation specialist
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