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3 results for “basic reproductive number”
Quantifying the basic reproduction number and the under-estimated fraction of mpox cases around the world at the onset of the outbreak: a mathematical modeling and machine learning- based study
<p><span>In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinico-epidemiological features compared with previous</span><br><span>outbreaks. During this resurgence, sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, with the community</span><br><span>of men having sex with men (MSM) being disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually</span><br><span>transmitted infections, especially those impacting MSM, the real burden of mpox could be masked.</span><br><span>We quantified the basic reproduction number (R</span><span>0</span><span>) and the under-estimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the</span><br><span>onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-</span><br><span>and low-risk populations), two-route (sexual and non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was</span><br><span>leveraged to identify under-estimation determinants.</span><br><span>Estimated R</span><span>0</span><span> </span><span>ranged between 1·37 (Canada) and 3·68 (Germany). The under-estimation rates for the high- and low-risk</span><br><span>populations varied between 25-93% and 65-85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the</span><br><span>reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3·60) and lowest in Canada (1·08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could</span><br><span>be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and importance of religion.</span><br><span>Given the substantial mpox under-estimation, surveillance should be enhanced and campaigns against the stigmatization of</span><br><span>MSM should be organized. Countries have different social characteristics, potentially explaining the various degrees of under-</span><br><span>reporting in mpox cases, which should be considered by studies assessing the effectiveness of community-based</span><br><span>interventions.</span></p>
Data from: The basic-reproduction number of infectious diseases in spatially structured host populations
<p>The spatial structure of a host population has a profound effect on the dynamics of infectious diseases. The basic reproduction number, a central quantity in the study of epidemic dynamics, is affected by host clustering as well as host density. Several authors have developed methods to quantify the basic reproduction number in a spatially structured host population. The methods used and the expressions derived are however difficult to apply to real life spatial host structures. In this paper we introduce an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number using the O-ring statistic, developed in spatial statistics, that quantifies the host density as a function of the distance from a randomly selected host individual. The O-ring statistic is frequently used in the study of the ecology of spatially structured plant populations, being a convenient summary of the properties of a landscape by way of a single function. The connection we develop between spatial statistics and epidemic dynamics can be used to study the effect of host spatial pattern on the basic reproduction number of infectious diseases. As well as showing how explicit expressions for the basic reproduction number can be derived for landscapes with standard structures, our expression for the basic reproduction number is tested against a simulation model. The model structure in our simulation is motivated by the spread of a plant disease epidemic, although it is applicable more broadly. The agreement between our analytic expression for the basic reproduction number and the corresponding numeric quantity extracted from simulations is close to perfect across a wide range of landscape structures and model parameterisations, and including cases in which more than one species of host is at risk of infection.</p>
Data from: The basic-reproduction number of infectious diseases in spatially structured host populations
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