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20,150 results for “change”
Ants Under Climate Change at Harvard Forest and Duke Forest 2009-2015
Experimental field studies are needed to understand the consequences of global climatic change for local community structure and associated ecosystem processes. We are using 5-m diameter open-top environmental chambers and 1m pvc minichambers to simultaneously manipulate air and soil temperatures at the Harvard Forest and at the Duke Forest in North Carolina. These field manipulations are designed to reveal the effects of temperature increases on the populations, communities, and associated ecosystem services of assemblages of ground-foraging ants. Ants are a model taxon for studying effects of global climatic change because they comprise the dominant fraction of animal biomass in many terrestrial communities and because they provide essential ecosystem services, including soil turnover, decomposition, and seed dispersal. The experiment is designed to test three predictions: 1. Projected atmospheric warming will lead to declines in ant species’ abundances at the warmer, southern extent of their ranges in the US. Conversely, projected atmospheric warming will lead to increases in abundance or range extensions of ant species at the cooler, northern extent of their ranges in the US. 2. Warming will change the relative abundance and composition of ant communities, and will lead to the loss of ant biodiversity. 3. Warming will potentially diminish ecosystem processes and services provided by ants, particularly with respect to the dispersal of seeds. To explore these, we are conducting two experiments. In one experiment, twelve open-top chambers at each site which will each be exposed air temperatures ranging from 1.5 to 7 deg C above ambient; soil temperatures will be increased simultaneously from 0 to ~ 2 deg C. After an initial year of pre-intervention measurements, the experiment will run for 3 consecutive years of continuous warming. In the second experiment, shade cloth and plastic greenhouse sheeting will be used to increase or decrease temperature by 0.5 deg C in
Annual precipitation and photo-derived vegetation and litter cover (2013-2021) used for analysis in the manuscript “Growing grasses in the desert: Multi-scale Interactions and State Change Reversal in Drylands”
This dataset contains water year precipitation collected from meteorological stations, litter and vegetation cover values derived from overhead photos, and litter and soil accumulation in lateral photos in a long-term experiment (2013-2021) of cross-scale interactions (CSIs) at the Jornada Basin LTER site in southern New Mexico, U.S.A. Manipulations were initiated in 2013 at 15 experimental blocks, each with 4 treatment plots: plant-scale herbicide of mesquite shrubs, patch-scale connectivity modifiers (ConMods), herbicide + ConMods, control without manipulations. Litter, soil, and vegetation cover were estimated using repeat overhead photographs of microplots within treatment and control plots. Litter and soil accumulation were estimated from lateral photos of ConMods. This dataset utilized QuickBird imagery from 2011 to assess ground cover classes within the Jornada Basin, focusing on bare ground, herbaceous, and shrub cover. Daily precipitation data collected from 13 meteorological stations were used to calculate water year (1 October-30 September) precipitation from 2013 through 2021. This dataset provides supporting data for the manuscript "Growing grasses in the desert: Multi-scale Interactions and State Change Reversal in Drylands" by Peters et al.
Observed phenological indicators and environmental drivers at global change experiments at the Jornada Basin LTER site, 2014-2020
This dataset contains plant phenological data extracted from phenocams installed at a global exchange experiment involving Chihuahuan desert plant communities at the Jornada Basin LTER site in southern New Mexico, U.S.A. Cycles of plant growth, termed phenology, are tightly linked to environmental controls, and our overarching objective in this study is to determine if temperature or precipitation are relatively more important for determining shrub and grass greenup date (start of season) and senescence date (end of season). At these camera locations, we experimentally manipulated incoming precipitation at the Jornada Basin LTER for over a decade and recorded plant leaf phenology at the daily scale for seven years using phenocams. The data here are derived from raw "phenocam" camera data collected at two ongoing studies at the Jornada Basin LTER site, one studying ecosystem responses to long term changes in water and nitrogen availability, and one studying plant productivity and partitioning responses to water availability and herbivory (studies 349 and 456, respectively). Phenocams at the sites have collected images since 2014, and basic color and greenness data extracted from those images are available in a companion dataset on EDI (knb-lter-jrn.210574001). This dataset includes the derived annual and quarterly phenological indices and greenness indices for each plot monitored by phenocams, and temperature and precipitation variables aggregated to the same frequency. The dataset also includes R code and input files used to generate these derived data. See Currier and Sala 2022 for more details. This study is ongoing.
Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Mangroves Worldwide 2012-2080
Given the multitude of ecosystem services provided by mangroves, it is important to understand their potential responses to global climate change. Extensive reviews of the literature and manipulative experiments suggest that mangroves will be impacted by climate change, but few studies have tested these predictions over large scales using statistical models. We provide the first example of applying species and community distribution models (SDMs and CDMs, respectively) to coastal mangroves worldwide. Species projected to shift their ranges polewards by at least 2 degrees of latitude consistently experience a decrease in the amount of suitable coastal area available to them. Central America and the Caribbean are forecast to lose more mangrove species than other parts of the world. We found that the extent and grain size, at which continuous CDM outputs are examined, independent of the grain size at which the models operate, can dramatically influence the number of pseudo-absences needed for optimal parameterization. The SDMs and CDMs presented here provide a first approximation of how mangroves will respond to climate change given simple correlative relationships between occurrence records and environmental data. Additional, precise georeferenced data on mangrove localities and concerted efforts to collect data on ecological processes across large-scale climatic gradients will enable future research to improve upon these correlative models.
LANDIS-II PnET Simulation of Recent Trends in Forest Change in New England 2010-2060
The future forests of eastern North America will be shaped by at least three broad drivers: (i) vegetation change and natural disturbance patterns associated with the protracted recovery following colonial era land use, (ii) a changing climate, and (iii) a land-use regime that consists of geographically variable rates and intensities of forest harvesting, clearing for development, and land protection. We evaluated the aggregate and relative importance of these factors for the future forests of New England, USA by simulating a continuation of the recent trends in these drivers for fifty-years, nominally spanning 2010 to 2060. The models explicitly incorporate the modern distribution of tree species and the geographical variation in climate and land-use change. Using a cellular land-cover change model in combination with a physiologically-based forest landscape model, we conducted a factorial simulation experiment to assess changes in aboveground carbon (AGC) and forest composition. In the control scenario that simulates a hypothetical absence of any future land use or future climate change, the simulated landscape experienced large increases in average AGC—an increase of 53% from 2010 to 2060 (from 4.2 to 6.3 kg m-2). By 2060, climate change increased AGC stores by 8% relative to the control while the land-use regime reduced AGC by 16%. Among land uses, timber harvesting had a larger effect on AGC storage and changes in tree composition than did forest conversion to non-forest uses, with the most pronounced impacts observed on private corporate-owned land in northern New England. Our results demonstrate a large difference between the landscape’s potential to store carbon and the landscape’s current trajectory, assuming a continuation of the modern land-use regime. They also reveal aspects of the land-use regime that will have a disproportionate impact on the ability of the landscape to store carbon in the future, such as harvest regimes on corporate-owned lands. This
National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide
<p>A complete description of the dataset is given by <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02041-1">Jones et al. (2023)</a>. Key information is provided below.</p> <p><strong>Background</strong></p> <p>A dataset describing the global warming response to national emissions CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O from fossil and land use sources during 1851-2021.</p> <p>National CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions data are collated from the Global Carbon Project (Andrew and Peters, 2024; Friedlingstein et al., 2024). </p> <p>National CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions data are collated from PRIMAP-hist (HISTTP) (Gütschow et al., 2024).</p> <p>We construct a time series of cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions for each country, gas, and emissions source (fossil or land use). Emissions of CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions are related to cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions using the Global Warming Potential (GWP*) approach, with best-estimates of the coefficients taken from the IPCC AR6 (Forster et al., 2021).</p> <p>Warming in response to cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions is estimated using the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) approach, with best-estimate value of TCRE taken from the IPCC AR6 (Forster et al., 2021, Canadell et al., 2021). 'Warming' is specifically the change in global mean surface temperature (GMST).</p> <p>The data files provide emissions, cumulative emissions and the GMST response by country, gas (CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O or 3-GHG total) and source (fossil emissions, land use emissions or the total).</p> <p><strong>Data records: overview</strong></p> <p>The data records include three comma separated values (.csv) files as described below.</p> <p>All files are in ‘long’ format with one value provided in the <em>Data</em> column for each combination of the categorical variables <em>Year, Country Name, Country ISO3 code, Gas, and Component</em> columns.</p> <p><em>Component</em> specifies fossil emissions, LULUCF emissions or total emissions of the gas.</p> <p><em>Gas</em> specifies CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O or the three-gas total (labelled 3-GHG).</p> <p><em>Country ISO3 codes</em> are specifically the unique ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes of each country.</p> <p><strong>Data records: specifics</strong></p> <p>Data are provided relative to 2 reference years (denoted <em>ref_year </em>below): 1850 and 1991. 1850 is a mutual first year of data spanning all input datasets. 1991 is relevant because the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was operationalised in 1992.</p> <p><em>EMISSIONS_ANNUAL_{ref_year-20}-2023.csv:</em> <em>Data </em>includes annual emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> (Pg CO<sub>2</sub> year<sup>-1</sup>), CH<sub>4</sub> (Tg CH<sub>4</sub> year<sup>-1</sup>) and N<sub>2</sub>O (Tg N<sub>2</sub>O year<sup>-1</sup>) during the period <em>ref_year-20 </em>to 2023. The <em>Data</em> column provides values for every combination of the categorical variables. Data are provided from <em>ref_year-20</em> because these data are required to calculate GWP* for CH<sub>4</sub>.</p> <p><em>EMISSIONS_CUMULATIVE_CO2e100_{ref_year+1}-2023.csv: Data </em>includes the cumulative CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent emissions in units Pg CO<sub>2</sub>-e<sub>100</sub> during the period <em>ref_year+1</em> to 2023 (i.e. since the reference year). The <em>Data</em> column provides values for every combination of the categorical variables. </p> <p><em>GMST_response_{ref_year+1}-2023.csv:</em> <em>Data</em> includes the change in global mean surface temperature (GMST) due to emissions of the three gases in units °C during the period <em>ref_year+1</em> to 2023 (i.e. since the reference year). The <em>Data</em> column provides values for every combination of the categorical variables. </p> <p><strong>Accompanying Code</strong></p> <p>Code is available at: <a href="https://github.com/jonesmattw/National_Warming_Contributions">https://github.com/jonesmattw/National_Warming_Contributions</a> .</p> <p>The code requires Input.zip to run (see README at the GitHub link).</p> <p><strong>Further info: Country Groupings</strong></p> <p>We also provide estimates of the contributions of various country groupings as defined by the UNFCCC:</p> <ul> <li>Annex I countries (number of countries, n = 42)</li> <li>Annex II countries (n = 23)</li> <li>economies in transition (EITs; n = 15)</li> <li>the least developed countries (LDCs; n = 47)</li> <li>the like-minded developing countries (LMDC; n = 24).</li> </ul> <p>And other country groupings:</p> <ul> <li>the organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD; n = 38)</li> <li>the European Union (EU27 post-Brexit)</li> <li>the Brazil, South Africa, India and China (BASIC) group.</li> </ul> <p>See COUNTRY_GROUPINGS.xlsx for the lists of countries in each group.</p>
Quantifying changes in fish population stability using statistical early warnings of regime shifts
This data package describes long-term trends in metrics describing population stability and used as statistical early warnings of regime shifts in 29 fish species that inhabit the San Francisco Bay-Delta in central California, USA. Metrics used in this study include spatial synchrony, temporal coefficient of variation (CV), and lag-1 temporal autocorrelation. Trends were measured using ordinary least squares linear regression. These derived data were developed from abundance (as CPUE) time series based on three long-term fish monitoring studies included in https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/a29a6e674b0f8797e13fbc4b08b92e5b; the Fall Midwater Trawl Survey, Delta Juvenile Monitoring Program, and Bay Study. Selected data were from fall months (September to December) in 1980-2023, from midwater trawl and beach seine surveys for which sampling effort (e.g., tow volume) was recorded. Data on fish exceeding maximum length thresholds for age-0 fish were discarded, except for white sturgeon, where the maximum length threshold corresponded to approximately 10 years of age, the onset of reproductive maturity. Observations from different sampling stations were aggregated into 10 sub-regions (South San Francisco Bay, Central San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Napa River, Suisun Bay, Delta Confluence, South Delta, North Delta, San Joaquin River, Sacramento River, and midwater trawl samples and beach seine samples were considered separately because the methods sample distinct habitat types. Combinations of sub-region and sampling method were considered distinct spatial units. EWI metrics were measured in 5-year rolling windows to permit assessment of changes over time. The temporal CV and lag-1 autocorrelation were measured on individual spatial unit time series, ignoring windows with >1 year of missing data. The coefficient of variation divides the standard deviation by the mean. Lag-1 autocorrelation was measured as Pearson correlation. Spatial synchrony was measured across spatial un
Altering pH changes competition dynamics between two crayfish species for both food and shelter resources
As climate change continues, alterations in abiotic variables within habitats will also change. One of the key variables for aquatic systems is pH. We were interested in how lowered pH altered the behavioral characteristics of two keystone species: Faxonius rusticus, a non-native crayfish in the upper midwest and Faxonius virilis, the native crayfish. We dosed size-matched individuals in separate tanks for four days and than placed these individuals in a flow through mesocosm to allow them to compete over food and shelter resources. Behavior was recorded from midnight to 4 am. Pairs of animals were exposed to pH levels varying from ambient (8.4) to 6.4. The experiment took place at the University of Michigan's Biological Station in northern Michigan in the United States.
Phoenix, Arizona (USA) residential yard management and vegetation change over time: 2008-2019
This project sampled residential front yards in four Phoenix, AZ neighborhoods to address questions about how residential yard vegetation varies among neighborhoods and changes over time and in response to resident attitudes. Neighborhoods were located on an approximate north-to-south transect in the city of Phoenix and represented different dominant landscape types (xeric or mesic) and different socioeconomic conditions. The project originated in summer 2008, when approximately 100 parcels were selected in each of the four neighborhoods for front yard vegetation sampling. All yards which could be relocated and accessed in the summer of 2018 were resampled, and current residents were surveyed to understand their yard management motivations, attitudes, and changes made. Yards of 100 survey respondents were resampled a third time in 2019. Yard sampling primarily focused on yard woody vegetation identification, but also included ground cover, yard type of neighboring yards, and features such as fences, lighting, and social infrastructure. Social and yard survey data can be linked with unique identifiers provided in the datasets.
Forest Change and Human Populations in New England 1600-2015
As part of retrospective studies of land-use across New England, information was compiled on forest cover and human population for the New England states. The states share a common history of deforestation for agriculture followed by farm abandonment and natural reforestation with the exception of northern Maine, which was never densely settled and largely remained forested. The extent to which these secondary forests differ in structure and function from permanently wooded areas or the forests of the pre-settlement period forms a major research emphasis of Harvard Forest studies.
Climate Change Impacts on Forest Biodiversity at Harvard Forest since 2011
Climate change is rapidly transforming forests over much of the globe in ways that are not anticipated by current science. Large-scale forest diebacks, apparently linked to interactions involving drought, warm winters, and other species, are becoming alarmingly frequent. Models of biodiversity and climate have not provided guidance on if/where/when such responses will occur. Instead models often predict potential numbers of extinctions, but these forecasts not are linked in any mechanistic way to the processes that could cause them. Both modeling and field studies rely on aggregate metrics of species presence/absence or relative abundance at regional scales, but climate affects individuals. Aggregation of individual data to the species level, hides or even qualitatively changes climate effects. By sampling and analysis at the individual scale across continental variation in climate, this study can link the individual scale processes to regional responses. This study will exploit existing research sites and the new NEON platform of sites for synthesis of models and data to determine when and where predicting climate impacts on biodiversity is a plausible goal, understand where surprises are likely to occur, and attribute those predictions back to individual tree health and vulnerability to climate risk factors. The study will provide climate vulnerability forecasts for forest biodiversity that are directly linked to the process scale. Our goal is provide probabilistic forecasts for the joint distribution of forest responses to climate change, including growth, reproduction, and mortality risk. For scientists, US Forest Service researchers, and policy makers predictions will anticipate combined risks of increasing drought and longer growing seasons. Methods developed under this project will be disseminated through training workshops for postdoctoral associates at other universities and resource managers.
Land-Cover Change Scenarios for Massachusetts 2010-2060
Working with a panel of practitioners and regional experts, we developed and analyzed four plausible but divergent land-use scenarios that depict the future of Massachusetts from 2010 to 2060. We simulated the land-use scenarios and their interactions with anticipated climate change by coupling statistical models of land use to the LANDIS-II landscape model and then evaluated the outcomes in terms of the magnitude and spatial distribution of (1) direct human uses of the landscape (residential and commercial development, agricultural, timber harvest), (2) ecosystem services (carbon storage, flood regulation, nutrient retention), and (3) habitat quality (forest tree species composition, interior forest habitat). Across all scenarios, conflicts occurred between dispersed residential development and the supply of ecosystem services and habitat quality. In all but the scenario that envisioned a significant agricultural expansion, forest growth resulted in net increases in aboveground carbon storage, despite the concomitant forest clearing and harvesting. One scenario, called Forests as Infrastructure, showed the potential for synergies between increased forest harvest volume through the sustainable practices that encouraged the maintenance of economically and ecologically important tree species, and carbon storage. This scenario also showed trade-offs between development density and water quantity and quality at the watershed scale. The process of integrated scenario analysis led to important insights for land managers and policymakers in a populated forested region where there are tensions among development, forest harvesting, and land conservation. More broadly, the results emphasize the need to consider the consequences of contrasting land-use regimes that result from the interactions between human decisions and spatially heterogeneous landscape dynamics.
Simulations of Historical Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric Chemistry at Harvard Forest 1850-2019
This study is a model application aimed at simulating historical carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and water dynamics at a hardwood forest stand at Harvard Forest from 1850 to 2019. We applied the PnET-CN-daily model with a reconstructed historical climate and air quality scenario derived from field observations and regional model simulations. The model outputs were calibrated with field measurements conducted at Harvard Forest. We used field measurements of aboveground biomass (AGB) and foliar mass near the EMS tower to calibrate ecosystem C pools. Gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and respiration from the EMS eddy flux tower were used to calibrate C fluxes. Net N mineralization data from the chronic N amendment experiment, along with other N dynamics data collected at Harvard Forest, were used to calibrate N pools and fluxes. Additionally, evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water content from the EMS tower were used to calibrate water fluxes. To isolate the effects of individual environmental factors on C, N, and water dynamics, we ran the PnET-CN-daily model with a series of theoretical scenarios. These scenarios were developed based on the reconstructed historical climate and air quality data while keeping non-target input factors at pre-industrial levels. The considered environmental factors include climate, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, atmospheric N deposition, and ozone (O3) concentration. This approach allowed us to decompose the influence of each factor on ecosystem dynamics by comparing model outputs across different scenarios.
Dataset and analyses for publication entitled: “Acclimation of the nitrogen cycle to changes in precipitation”
This dataset contains data and analysis code for the paper entitled “Acclimation of the nitrogen cycle to changes in precipitation" by Currier et al. As the frequency of precipitation extremes are expected to increase, especially in arid regions, we asked how prolonged shifts in water availability facilitate acclimation of the N cycle in a semiarid grassland. Using natural abundances of stable nitrogen isotopes for dominant plants and soils and rainfall manipulation experiments, we tested the hypothesis that N cycling will interact with water availability further amplifying the openness of the N cycle through time. For the dominant plant species, we found the relationship for N availability vs. ambient annual precipitation to be significantly positive, contrary to global spatial models. We also considered the temporal dynamics of our experiments, which imposed directional rainfall manipulations in duration ranging from 5 to 14 years. The slopes of these relationships decreased (became less positive) with more time since the onset of the directional precipitation extremes. These data and metadata supplement long-term foliar and soil isotope data from the Jornada LTER (Dataset ID: knb-lter-jrn.210586001) with a large spatial dataset from NEON data package DP1.10026.001 and Craine et al. 2018 (https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.v2k2607).
MCR LTER: Coral Reef: Dead coral skeletons impair key recovery processes following coral bleaching; data for Kopecky et al., 2024 Global Change Biology
The data included in this data package were collected on the North shore of Moorea, French Polynesia, from 2015-2023 to explore how dead coral skeletons (e.g,, left after coral bleaching events) influence critical processes tied to coral reef resilience. Together, these various datasets were used for analyses in the manuscript entitled "Changing disturbance regimes, material legacies, and stabilizing feedbacks: dead coral skeletons impair key recovery processes following coral bleaching", published in Global Change Biology. These data are in support of a publication Kopecky et al. (2024) Global Change Biology, and were a part of the thesis of K. Kopecky. The manuscript title and author list are as follows: Changing disturbance regimes, material legacies, and stabilizing feedbacks: dead coral skeletons impair key recovery processes following coral bleaching. Kai Kopecky, Russell J. Schmitt, Sally J. Holbrook. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant No. OCE 22-24354 (and earlier awards) as well as a generous gift from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. Research was completed under permits issued by the French Polynesian Government (Délégation à la Recherche) and the Haut-commissariat de la République en Polynésie Francaise (DTRT) (Protocole d'Accueil 2005-2024). This work represents a contribution of the Moorea Coral Reef (MCR) LTER Site.
National Phenology Network tree phenology at Crosby Farm Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change study, 2021-2025
Phenology is the study of relations between climate and periodic biological phenomena, such as bud break or leaf drop in deciduous trees. Phenology is a leading indicator of climate change, and the response of urban tree species to climate can help inform how to manage for a more resilient, and adaptive urban tree canopy. This dataset contains tree phenology data from the The Mississippi National River and Recreation Area (MNRRA) Urban Affiliate Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) project located at Crosby Farm Regional Park. This dataset includes Individual Phenometrics, Site Phenomentrics, Status and Intensity, and Magnitude Phenometrics. This data was collected through mobile app submissions to Nature's Notebook and downloaded from the National Phenology Network Observation Portal, filtered by date range 01/01/2021 to 02/26/2024 and for Crosby Farm ASCC. Data Attribution: USA National Phenology Network. 2024. Plant and Animal Phenology Data. Data type: Status & Intensity, Individual Phenometrics, Site Phenometrics, Magnitude Phenometricts. 01/01/2021-02/26/2024 for Region: 45.221627°, -92.554965° (UR); 44.599185°, -93.5712° (LL). USA-NPN, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA. Data set accessed 03/19/2024 at http://doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1
Modeling dataset: Long-term Change in Metabolism Phenology across North-Temperate Lakes, Wisconsin, USA 1979-2019
This dataset includes model configurations, scripts and outputs to process and recreate the outputs from Ladwig et al. (2021): Long-term Change in Metabolism Phenology across North-Temperate Lakes. The provided scripts will process the input data from various sources, as well as recreate the figures from the manuscript. Further, all output data from the metabolism models of Allequash, Big Muskellunge, Crystal, Fish, Mendota, Monona, Sparkling and Trout are included.
Red knot occurrence, prey density, island morphology, and climate change in the Virginia Barrier Islands (2009-2023)
Global climate change is reshaping dynamic coastal ecosystems, with uncertain consequences for migratory shorebirds such as the federally threatened red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) that rely on coastal staging sites during migration. Understanding how sea-level rise and changing climate drivers affect red knot foraging ecology is critical for informing conservation and management at coastal staging sites. We integrated long-term biological, geomorphological, and climatological data to examine the direct and indirect pathways influencing red knots and their prey at intertidal foraging sites on the Virginia Barrier Islands during spring migration (May 21 - 28, 2009-2023). Using piecewise structural equation modeling, we tested hypothesized two causal networks linking 1) red knot occurrence and 2) densities of their main invertebrate prey to habitat characteristics, island morphology, geomorphic change, and climate drivers of ecosystem change. Red knots were indirectly affected by geomorphic change and climate drivers through bottom-up effects on invertebrate communities mediated by island morphology. Accelerated shoreline change narrowed islands, reducing invertebrate density and richness and indirectly decreasing red knot occurrence. Storms interacted with global climate oscillations to drive erosion or accretion of beaches, with variable effects on invertebrate density and red knot occurrence. Invertebrate responses were taxon-specific: shoreline change directly increased blue mussel density but indirectly reduced coquina clam and crustacean densities by narrowing island width, while storms impacts on crustacean density were mediated by beach width. Our findings suggest that accelerated ecosystem change under future climate scenarios may alter foraging conditions for red knots and other migratory shorebirds in the Virginia Barrier Islands, with broader implications for long-term population resilience.
Four-year blip emissions changes due to COVID-19: modified SSP2-4.5 to account for sector activity level
<p>This repository holds the netcdf files for aerosol emissions projected by the scenario SSP2-4.5, from the Scenario4MIPs database ( <a href="https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/">https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/</a>), modified by the country and sector activity levels associated with lockdown, projected out for 5 years after 2020 before returning to baseline. The details of these activity estimates runs in parallel to those described in <a href="https://github.com/Priestley-Centre/COVID19_emissions">https://github.com/Priestley-Centre/COVID19_emissions</a>, except instead of a 2-year blip, we have done a 4-year blip. Note that it is one year after the blip has finished before things return to baseline.</p> <p>The methodology behind these calculations is based on <a href="https://github.com/Rlamboll/modify_COVID19_netCDF_Emissions/">https://github.com/Rlamboll/modify_COVID19_netCDF_Emissions/</a>, a slight modification of the approach used in <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/3947917#.XxR_qyhKhPZ">https://zenodo.org/record/3947917#.XxR_qyhKhPZ</a> for aerosols emissions. We present only a single scenario (called 4-year blip, featuring a one year recovery after the end of the 4 years) compared to the baseline.</p> <p>Funding was provided by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement nos. 820829 (CONSTRAIN) <a href="http://constrain-eu.org/">http://constrain-eu.org/</a> </p>
Time-series of shoreline change along the Pacific Rim
<p>This repository contains 40 years of tidally-corrected shoreline change time-series for most sandy coastlines around the Pacific Rim derived from Landsat imagery. <br><br><strong>The time-series were last updated in May 2025. For the latest data always refer to <a href="http://coastsat.space/">http://coastsat.space/</a>.</strong></p> <p>The dataset was used to investigate the impact of ENSO on beach erosion and accretion in:<br>- Vos, K., Harley, M.D., Turner, I.L. <em>et al.</em> Pacific shoreline erosion and accretion patterns controlled by El Niño/Southern Oscillation. <em>Nat. Geosci.</em> <strong>16</strong>, 140–146 (2023). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01117-8">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01117-8</a><em> </em></p> <p><em>CoastSat </em>was used to map shoreline changes on Landsat 5, Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 imagery between 1984 and 2025. The <em>Coastsat </em>toolbox is publicly available at https://github.com/kvos/CoastSat and described in <em>Vos et al. 2019, </em><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104528">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104528</a>. The time-series of shoreline change were tidally-corrected along cross-shore transects using tide levels from a global tide model (FES2022) and a satellite-derived estimate of the beach slope (as described in <em>Vos et al. 2020, "Beach slopes from satellite-derived shorelines", </em><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088365">https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088365</a><em>)</em>.</p> <p>This dataset covers wave-dominated sandy coasts in the Pacific basin where Landsat imagery was available, including a total of 3,000 beaches and more than 100,000 cross-shore transects (100-m alongshore spaced). This includes coastlines in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Chile , Peru, Mexico and USA (California and Hawaii only).</p> <p>The data is structured as follows:</p> <ul> <li>There is a folder for each country (e.g. Australia)</li> <li> In the country folder, there is a folder for each site (e.g. aus0001, aus0002 etc)</li> <li>In the site folder, there are 4 CSV files: <ul> <li><em>time_series_tidally_corrected.csv</em>: this file contains the tidally-corrected time-series of shoreline change along each transect belonging to the site (e.g. aus0001-0001, aus0001-0002 etc). This is the final product used for coastal change analyses.</li> <li><em>time_series_raw.csv</em>: this file contains the raw time-series of shoreline change, which have not be tidally-corrected. Note that each image is taken at a different stage of the tide.</li> <li><em>tide_levels_fes2022</em>: this file contains the tide levels at the time of image acquisition extracted from FES2022 (global tide model publicly available on AVISO+).</li> <li><em>transect_coordinates_and_beach_slopes.csv</em>: this file contains the coordinates (in WGS84 lat/lon coordinates) as well as the estimated beach slope for each transect, including confidence intervals.</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p> In addition, there are four geospatial layers (.GEOJSON) which contain important spatial information:</p> <ul> <li> <em>polygons.geojson</em>: this layer contains the polygons that were used to run CoastSat for each beach.</li> <li><em>shorelines.geojson</em>: this layer contains the sandy shorelines that were used to generate the cross-shore transects (also used as reference shorelines in CoastSat). Each beach has the following attributes: beach length, median orientation, median slope, and mean springs tidal range.</li> <li><em>transects.geojson</em>: this layer contains the cross-shore transects, which are spaced 100 m along each beach. Each transect has the following attributes: orientation, beach slope, linear trend (in m/year), alongshore distance relative to the northern end of the beach (absolute and normalised).</li> <li><em>transects_edit.geojson</em>: this layer is the same as transects.geojson but the transects that are not suitable for shoreline mapping were manually deleted (rocky shores, submerged reef, coastal lagoons and inlets, coastal defences etc...).</li> <li><em>transects_ENSO.geojson</em>: this layer (similar to transects.geojson) contains the transects that were used to analyse ENSO effects on shoreline changes in the Pacific (a total of 83,000).</li> </ul> <p> </p>
ScienceDex guides
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Allen Brain Atlas
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DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
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International Brain Laboratory public data
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OpenNeuro
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