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33 results for “climate uncertainty”
Quantifying Both Socioeconomic and Climate Uncertainty in Coupled Human-Earth Systems Analysis
<p>This data repository is associated with the paper:</p> <p>Morris,J., A. Sokolov, J. Reilly, A. Libardoni, C. Forest, S. Paltsev, A Schlosser, R. Prinn and H. Jacoby (2025). Quantifying Both Socioeconomic and Climate Uncertainty in Coupled Human-Earth Systems Analysis. <em>Nature Communications </em><strong>16</strong>, 2703. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57897-1</p> <p>This paper quantifies key socio-economic and climate uncertainties using the MIT Integrated Global System Model. </p>
Supplementary data for "Effect of Uncertainty in Water Vapor Continuum Absorption on CO2 Forcing, Longwave Feedback, and Climate Sensitivity"
<h3>This dataset is supplementary to the article "Effect of Uncertainty in Water Vapor Continuum Absorption on CO2 Forcing, Longwave Feedback, and Climate Sensitivity".</h3> <h3>spectral_olr.nc</h3> <p>This file contains the spectral outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) calculated using the line-by-line radiative transfer model ARTS and the radiative-convective equilibrium model konrad. It contains spectral OLR for surface temperatures from 270K to 330K for different strengths of the water vapor continuum absorption.</p> <h3>opacity_emission_level.py</h3> <p>This file also contains the spectrally resolved optical depth and the emission level of outgoing longwave radiation for the considered absorption species (H2O lines, H2O continuum, H2O self continuum, H2O foreign continuum, CO2, N2, and O2).</p> <h3>continuum_reference_conditions.nc</h3> <p>This file contains the reference continuum absorption coefficients that were used to calculate the adjustment to the foreign continuum for the single-constraint experiment.</p> <h3>continuum_all_profiles.nc</h3> <p>This file contains the reference continuum absorption coefficients that were used to calculate the adjustment to the foreign continuum for the general-constraint experiment.</p> <h3>modified_continuum_input_files_single_constraint.zip and modified_continuum_input_files_general_constraint.zip</h3> <p>These files contain the modified continuum data files used for the implementation of the MT_CKD continuum model in the line-by-line model ARTS for the single-constraint and general-constraint experiments, respectively.</p> <h3>tau_column.nc and tau_profile.nc</h3> <p>These files contain separately for each absorption species the vertically integrated opacity spectra, and the opacity profiles at two selected wavenumbers.</p> <p> </p>
Data for Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System under Deep Climate Uncertainty
<p>Data from the paper "Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System under Deep Climate Uncertainty"</p>
Spatial patterns of uncertainty in climate exposure metrics for North America at 1km resolution
<p>The data provided below represents the degree of uncertainty or variation between 8 individual general circulation models (GCM) for three metrics commonly used to assess the intensity of exposure to climate change. The three exposure metrics (forward and backward <a href="https://adaptwest.databasin.org/pages/adaptwest-velocitywna">climatic velocity</a> and <a href="https://adaptwest.databasin.org/pages/climatic-dissimilarity">local climatic dissimilarity</a>) were calculated based on the first two principal components (PC) scores derived from <a href="https://adaptwest.databasin.org/pages/climatic-dissimilarity">11 different climate variables</a>. Frameworks and heuristics supporting climate adaptation for conservation often rely on projections of climate change or climate exposure. However, projections of climate change vary among alternative GCM outputs, different emissions scenarios, and different future time periods. The potential for these model predictions to vary geographically presents a source of uncertainty in assigning climate-informed conservation strategies to landscapes. Regions with high agreement among predictions could be more confidently assigned a climate-informed strategy, whereas regions with less agreement among predictions may require a more cautious approach. More information on the data can be found at https://adaptwest.databasin.org/pages/uncertainty-climate-metrics.</p>
Model output used in the manuscript "Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective"
<p>This *.zip file contains the model output from ensemble simulations for the Lorenz 84-Stommel 61 model (hereafter L84-S61; <a href="https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v53i5.12229" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Van Veen et al, 2001</a>; <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daron and Stainforth, 2013</a>). To run these simulations, we used the Low-EFFourth ensemble generator (<a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2506.03313" target="_blank" rel="noopener">de Melo Viríssimo, 2025a</a>; <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15566109" target="_blank" rel="noopener">de Melo Viríssimo, 2025b</a>), which is a MATLAB-based framework that allows for large ensembles of low-dimensional dynamical systems to be run and studied in a systematic way (<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14755" target="_blank" rel="noopener">de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth, 2023</a>).</p> <p>These model outputs are presented and discussed in the manuscript "<em>Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective</em>", published by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0064.1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth, 2025</a>). The manuscript describes the experiments performed, the parameter values used and the modifications done to the original L84-S61 model. For this matter, we also refer you to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daron and Stainforth (2013)</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0180870" target="_blank" rel="noopener">de Melo Viríssimo et al. (2024)</a>.</p> <p>All files uploaded were generated from simulations run by the lead author.</p> <p>For specific information about each file uploaded, please refer to the README file. The details of each experiment are also presented in the supplementary materials of the manuscript. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.</p>
Data from: Assessing uncertainties and approximations in solar heating of the climate system
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Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions
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Dataset for Bukovsky et al. (2021): "SSP-Based Land Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections"
<p>This dataset contains derived data and model data necessary for reproducing the results found in "SSP-Based Land Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections" by Melissa S. Bukovsky, Jing Gao, Linda O. Mearns, and Brian C. O'Neill. This dataset contains data not otherwise available in other public archives, as noted in Bukovsky et al. (2021, Earth's Future; preprint available at https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504141.2). That is, this dataset contains data from the land-use change simulations that are not part of NA-CORDEX (na-cordex.org), but which are complementary to those published in the NA-CORDEX archive.</p>
Data from: navigating uncertainty: managing herbivore communities enhances savanna ecosystem resilience under climate change
<p>Savannas are characterized by water scarcity and degradation, making them highly vulnerable to increased uncertainties in water availability resulting from climate change. This poses a significant threat to ecosystem services and rural livelihoods that depend on them. In addition, the lack of consensus among climate models on precipitation change makes it difficult for land managers to plan for the future. Therefore, savanna rangeland management needs to develop strategies that can sustain savanna resilience and avoid tipping points under an uncertain future climate. Our study aims to analyze the impacts of climate change and rangeland management on degradation in savanna ecosystems of southern Africa, providing insights for the management of semi-arid savannas under uncertain conditions worldwide. To achieve this, we simulated the effects of projected changes in temperature and precipitation, as predicted by ten global climate models, on water resources and vegetation (cover, functional diversity, tipping points (transition from grass-dominated to shrub-dominated vegetation)). We simulated three different rangeland management options (herbivore community dominated by grazers, by browser and by mixed-feeders), each with low and high animal densities using the ecohydrological model EcoHyD. Our results identified intensive grazing as the primary contributor to the increased risk of degradation in response to changing climatic conditions across all climate change scenarios. This degradation encompassed a reduction in available water for plant growth within the context of predicted climate change. It also entails a decline in the overall vegetation cover, the loss of functionally important plant species, and the inefficient utilization of available water resources, leading to earlier tipping points. Our findings underscore that in the face of climate uncertainty, farmers' most effective strategy for securing their livelihoods and ecosystem stability is to integrate browsers and apply management of mixed herbivore communities. This management approach not only significantly delays or averts tipping points but also maintained greater plant functional diversity, fostering a more robust and resilient ecosystem that acts as a vital buffer against adverse climatic conditions.</p>
Code and figure data from "Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and hence uncertainty"
<p>Code and figure data from "Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and hence uncertainty".</p>
Spatial uncertainty in herbarium data: Simulated displacement but not error distance alters estimates of phenological sensitivity to climate in a widespread California wildflower
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Ecological vs. climate uncertainty in future marine ecosystems: lessons learned from krill in a major upwelling region
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Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change, datasets
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Data from: navigating uncertainty: managing herbivore communities enhances savanna ecosystem resilience under climate change
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Understanding the Influence of Parameter Value Uncertainty on Climate Model Output: Developing an Interactive Web Dashboard
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Characterizing uncertainty in climate impact projections: a case study with seven marine species on the North American continental shelf
<p>Projections of climate change impacts on living resources are being conducted frequently, and the goal is often to inform policy. Species projections will be more useful if uncertainty is effectively quantified. However, few studies have comprehensively characterized the projection uncertainty arising from greenhouse gas scenarios, Earth system models, and both structural and parameter uncertainty in species distribution modeling. Here we conducted 8964 unique 21st century projections for shifts in suitable habitat for seven economically important marine species including American lobster, Pacific halibut, Pacific ocean perch, and summer flounder. For all species, both the Earth system model used to simulate future temperatures and the niche modeling approach used to represent species distributions were important sources of uncertainty, while variation associated with parameter values in niche models was minor. Greenhouse gas emissions scenario contributed to uncertainty for projections at the century scale. The characteristics of projection uncertainty differed among species and also varied spatially, which underscores the need for improved multi-model approaches with a suite of Earth system models and niche models forming the basis for uncertainty around projected impacts. Ensemble projections show the potential for major shifts in future distributions. Therefore, rigorous future projections are important for informing climate adaptation efforts.</p>
Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty
Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.
Data from: Incorporating uncertainty into forest management planning: timber harvest, wildfire and climate change in the boreal forest
In an effort to ensure the sustainability of their forests, boreal forest managers often use forest planning models to make future projections of timber supply and other key services, such as habitat for wildlife. Projecting the fate of these services has proven to be challenging, however, as major uncertainties exist regarding the principal drivers of boreal ecosystem dynamics, including the future spatial and temporal distribution of wildfire and timber harvesting. Existing forest planning models are not well suited to dealing with this uncertainty because they produce deterministic projections based on central tendencies of these drivers. Here we present a new approach for incorporating uncertainty into forest management planning, which we demonstrate using two landscapes in the Canadian boreal forest. Our approach takes the assumptions contained within the latest forest management plans for each of these landscapes, including parameterizations of their deterministic forest planning models, and converts these assumptions into equivalent parameterizations of a stochastic, spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model (STSM). We then use Monte Carlo simulations with the STSM to "stress-test" the forest management plan with respect to a range of possible future uncertainties, including uncertainties in future levels and patterns of wildfire and timber harvest, along with the possible changes in wildfire that might result from future climate change. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of incorporating stochastic variability into projections of future ecosystem condition. The STSM projections that acknowledged variability in wildfire and timber harvest differed from the deterministic forest planning model projections that were based solely on mean values. Our analysis also suggests that there is an increased risk of shortfalls in timber harvest, for both boreal landscapes, associated with future projections for changes in wildfire due to climate change, and that management strategies aimed at reducing the future level of timber harvest offer an opportunity to mitigate these risks. We believe our approach provides a new risk-based framework for incorporating uncertainty into forest management, including the effects of climate change.
Future wave climate in the Mediterranean Sea and associated uncertainty from an ensemble of 31 GCM-RCM wave simulations
<p>The data provided is used in a study aimed at assessing future changes in the Mediterranean wave climate. A total of 31 GCM-RCM simulations were used to characterize the wave climate during the historical (1979-2005), mid-century (2034-2060), and end-century (2074-2100) periods. Changes in seasonal significant wave height (Hs) and peak period (Tp) wave parameters are evaluated for both the mean and intense (quantile 0.95) wave climate, along with the shift in wave direction (wave peak dominant direction, θp) for sea states characterized as intense. The robustness of the climate change signal is evaluated following the guidelines outlined in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Additionally, using a wave hindcast as a reference, the changes in future extreme events are assessed by fitting a GEV to a unique and coherent set of bias-corrected annual maxima from each model.</p> <p>We provide data used to obtain the results of our study, comprising: 1) wave climate statistics for Hs, Tp, and θp for each model and each period studied; 2) two sets of annual maxima distribution for each model, which were bias-corrected assuming that the set of extreme events follows either a Gumbel distribution or a GEV distribution. For more details on the methods to obtain these files describing wave climate statistical as used in the study, please refer to Toomey et al., 2024: "Future wave climate in the Mediterranean Sea and associated uncertainty from an ensemble of GCM-RCM wave simulations."</p>
Planning for Resilience: Incorporating scenario and model uncertainty and trade-offs when prioritizing management of climate refugia
<p>Climate change has become the greatest threat to the world's ecosystems. Locating and managing areas that contribute to the survival of key species under climate change is critical for the persistence of ecosystems in the future. Here we identify "Climate Priority" sites as coral reefs exposed to relatively low levels of climate stress that will be more likely to persist in the future. We present the first analysis of uncertainty in climate change scenarios and models, along with multiple objectives, in a marine spatial planning exercise and offer a comprehensive approach to incorporating uncertainty and trade-offs in any ecosystem. We first described each site using environmental characteristics that are associated with a higher chance of persistence (larval connectivity, hurricane influence and acute and chronic temperature conditions in the past and the future). Future temperature increases were assessed using downscaled data under four different climate scenarios (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5) and 57 model runs. We then prioritized sites for intervention (conservation, improved management or restoration) using robust decision-making approaches that select sites that will have a benign climate under most climate scenarios and models. The modeling work is novel because it solves two important issues. 1) It considers trade-offs between multiple planning objectives explicitly through Pareto analyses; and 2) It makes use of all the uncertainty around future climate change. Priority intervention sites identified by the model were verified and refined through local stakeholder engagement including assessments of local threats, ecological condition and government priorities. The workflow is presented for the Insular Caribbean and Florida, and at the national level for Cuba, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Haiti. Our approach allows managers to consider uncertainty and multiple objectives for climate smart spatial management in coral reefs or any ecosystem across the globe.</p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.