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134 results for “climate vulnerability”

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zenodo48/100

Assessment of vulnerability to climate change of coastal communities in the Gulf of California and the Yucatan Peninsula: vulnerability outputs

The dataset includes the outputs of the project: "Assessment of vulnerability to climate change of coastal communities in the Gulf of California and the Yucatan Peninsula: vulnerability outputs" funded by the David and Lucille Packard Foundation and awarded to H. Reyes-Bonilla (UABCS).  This study analyzed vulnerability of fisheries-dependent coastal communities based on three components: a) adaptive capacity (84 indicators), which reflect the ability of a community to respond and recover after adverse events; b) susceptibility (11 indicators) which was determined based on fishing dependence; and c) exposure (31 indicators) that was evaluated with current environmental data. Future vulnerability was determined for a 2050 horizon and based on two climate change scenarios: SSP126, which represents low emissions, and SSP585, which takes into consideration that the amount of greenhouse gases will continue to increase. These data come from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), which serves as the basis for the 6th IPCC report. We evaluated vulnerability using indicators what were available at the local scale.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2024View details →

edi44/100

Assessment of the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: A Sensitivity Analysis among Models

This activity is a comparison of how large-scale models represent permafrost carbon dynamics into the future (2010-2299). Model responses were evaluated at several temporal scales. To the extent possible, we standardized driver data and simulation procedures among the models. However, the protocol has been set up so that each model can build upon the procedures used to produce the outputs for historical analysis (1960- 2009) that was published in McGuire et al. 2016 (Global Biogeochemical Cycles 30:1015-1037, doi:10.1002/2016GB005405). Note that this comparison is an offline model comparison in which we assessed the sensitivity of the responses of the models to somewhat standardized forcing data. The activity compared among the models: Carbon dynamics: Predictions of average annual C fluxes (GPP, NPP, RH, CH4 fluxes, disturbance-related emissions, dissolved organic carbon export, lateral land used fluxes, etc.) and major pools for the northern permafrost region for the 2010-2299 period. Soil thermal dynamics: Predictions of annual soil thermal and hydrological dynamics at prescribed depths and the maximum annual active layer depth (in permafrost locations) for the 2010-2299 time period. The spatial simulation data for this project are are available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center (doi: 10.5067/ZRL5WJKN01XM).

openOpenMar 2018View details →

zenodo40/100

Dataset for paper "Freihardt (2025): Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh. Population and Environment. DOI 10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7"

This is the dataset underlying the paper:  Freihardt, J. (2025): Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh. Population and Environment, 47, 6. DOI: 10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2023View details →

dryad40/100

Variable vulnerability to climate change in New Zealand lizards

Aim: The primary drivers of species and population extirpations have been habitat loss, overexploitation, and invasive species, but human-mediated climate change is expected to be a major driver in future. To minimise biodiversity loss, conservation managers should identify species vulnerable to climate change and prioritise their protection. Here, we estimate climatic suitability for two speciose taxonomic groups, then use phylogenetic analyses to assess vulnerability to climate change. Location: Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) Taxa: NZ lizards: diplodactylid geckos and eugongylinae skinks Methods: We built correlative species distribution models (SDMs) for NZ geckos and skinks to estimate climatic suitability under current climate and 2070 future-climate scenarios. We then used Bayesian phylogenetic mixed models (BPMMs) to assess vulnerability for both groups with predictor variables for life history traits (body size and activity phase) and current distribution (elevation and latitude). We explored two scenarios: an unlimited dispersal scenario, where projections track climate, and a no-dispersal scenario, where projections are restricted to areas currently identified as suitable. Results: SDMs projected vulnerability to climate change for most modelled lizards. For species' ranges projected to decline in climatically suitable areas, average decreases were between 42–45% for geckos and 33–91% for skinks, although area did increase or remain stable for a minority of species. For the no-dispersal scenario, the average decrease for geckos was 37–52% and for skinks was 33–52%. Our BPMMs showed phylogenetic signal in climate change vulnerability for both groups, with elevation increasing vulnerability for geckos, and body size reducing vulnerability for skinks. Main conclusions: NZ lizards showed variable vulnerability to climate change, with most species' ranges predicted to decrease. For species whose suitable climatic space is projected to disappear from within their current range, managed relocation could be considered to establish populations in regions that will be suitable under future climates.

opencc-zeroJan 2022View details →

dryad40/100

Assessing the vulnerability of plant functional trait strategies to climate change

Aim: Our ability to understand how species may respond to changing climate conditions is hampered by a lack of high-quality data on the adaptive capacity of species. Plant functional traits are linked to many aspects of species life history and adaptation to environment, with different combinations of trait values reflecting alternate strategies for adapting to varied conditions. If the realised climate limits of species can be partially explained by plant functional trait combinations, then a new approach of using trait combinations to predict the expected climate limits of species trait combinations may offer considerable benefits. Location: Australia. Time period: Current and future. Methods: Using trait data for leaf size, seed mass and plant height for 6,747 Australian native species from 27 plant families, we model the expected climate limits of trait combinations and use future climate scenarios to estimate climate change impacts based on plant functional trait strategies. Results: Functional trait combinations were a significant predictor of species climate niche metrics with potentially meaningful relationships with two rainfall variables (R2 = 0.36 & 0.45) and three temperature variables (R2 = 0.21, 0.28, 0.30). Using this method, the proportion of species exposed to conditions across their range that are beyond the expected climate limits of their trait strategies will increase under climate change. Main conclusions: Our new approach, called Trait Strategy Vulnerability, includes three new metrics. For example, the Climate Change Vulnerability (CCV) metric identified a small but important proportion of species (4.3%) that will on average be exposed to conditions beyond their expected limits for summer temperature in the future. These potentially vulnerable species could be high priority targets for deeper assessment of adaptive capacity at the genomic or physiological level. Our methods can be applied to any suite of co-occurring plants globally.

opencc-zeroMar 2022View details →

zenodo40/100

Genomic insights into local adaptation and future climate-induced vulnerability of a keystone forest tree in East Asia (The genome assembly and annotion fiile)

The genome assembly and annotion fiile used in the manuscript: Genomic insights into local adaptation and future climate-induced vulnerability of a keystone forest tree in East Asia

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2022View details →

dryad40/100

Climate change exposure and vulnerability of the global protected area estate from an international perspective

Aim: Protected areas are essential to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem benefits to society under increasing human pressures of the Anthropocene. Anthropogenic climate change, however, threatens the enduring effectiveness of protected areas in conserving biodiversity and providing ecosystem services, because it modifies and redistributes biodiversity with unknown consequences for ecosystem functioning within protected areas. Here we assess (1) the climate change exposure of the global terrestrial protected area estate and (2) the climate change vulnerability of national protected area estates. Location: Terrestrial protected areas worldwide. Methods: We calculated local climate change exposure as predicted climate anomalies between the present and 2070 using ten global climate models, two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and the finest spatial resolution available for global climate projections (approx. 1 km). We estimated the climate change vulnerability of national protected area estates by analysing countrywide relationships between protected areas' climate anomalies and other protected area characteristics, i.e. area, elevation, terrain ruggedness, human footprint and irreplaceability for globally threatened species. Results: We found predicted climate anomalies highest in protected areas of (sub-)tropical countries. The correlations between climate anomalies and protected area characteristics strongly differ between countries. Globally, protected areas showing large climate anomalies tend to be at high elevation and highly irreplaceable for threatened species, increasing climate change vulnerability. These protected areas are relatively large in area, of high topographic heterogeneity and less pressured by humans, decreasing climate change vulnerability. Main conclusion: This study reveals potential hotspots of climate change impact inside the terrestrial protected area estate. It thus supports and guides climate-smart conservation policy and management, particularly national to local authorities, to ensure the future effectiveness of protected areas in preserving biodiversity and ecosystem benefits under climate change.

opencc-zeroAug 2021View details →

dryad40/100

Data for: Genomic vulnerability to climate change in Quercus acutissima, a dominant tree species in East Asian deciduous forests

Understanding the evolutionary processes that shape the landscape of genetic variation and influence the response of species to future climate change is critical for biodiversity conservation. Here, we sampled 27 populations across the distribution range of a dominant forest tree, Quercus acutissima, in East Asia, and applied genome-wide analyses to track the evolutionary history and predict the fate of populations under future climate. We found two genetic groups (East and West) in Q. acutissima that diverged during the Pliocene. We also found a heterogeneous landscape of genomic variation in this species, which may have been shaped by population demography and linked selections. Using genotype-environment association analyses, we identified climate-associated SNPs in a diverse set of genes and functional categories, indicating a model of polygenic adaptation in Q. acutissima. We further estimated three genetic offset metrics to quantify genomic vulnerability of this species to climate change due to the complex interplay between local adaptation and migration. We found that marginal populations are under higher risk of local extinction because of future climate change, and may not be able to track suitable habitats to maintain the gene-environment relationships observed under the current climate. We also detected higher reverse genetic offsets in northern China, indicating that genetic variation currently present in the whole range of Q. acutissima may not adapt to future climate conditions in this area. Overall, this study illustrates how evolutionary processes have shaped the landscape of genomic variation, and provides a comprehensive genome-wide view of climate maladaptation in Q. acutissima.

opencc-zeroJan 2023View details →

zenodo40/100

Supplementary Data and Code: Determinants of range sizes pinpoint vulnerability of groundwater species to climate change: a case study on subterranean amphipods from the Dinarides

Supplementary Data and R code for phylogenetic analyses for manuscript entitled Determinants of range sizes pinpoint vulnerability of groundwater species to climate change: a case study on subterranean amphipods from the Dinarides. The dataset contains beast.tree → data for import into R: maximum credibility phylogeny data_lambert.csv → data for import into R: data on habitat and distribution for 52 Niphargus species morpho.csv → data for import into R: morphometric data (body length) for 52 Niphargus species niphargus_ranges.Rmd → fully reproducible R markdown file niphargus_ranges.html → html output of Rmd file To be able to run the analysis put the data files into folder <data> and run the Rmd script.

opencc-by-4.0Jan 2023View details →

dryad40/100

Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use

Changes in climate and land-use and land-cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accounts for (1) estuarine exposure to projected changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads as a function of LULC and climate change under several scenarios to altered nutrient loads, (2) sensitivity (i.e., how responsive estuaries are to altered nutrient loads), and (3) adaptive capacity (i.e., how the socio-ecological system can use existing resources to reduce the impacts associated with increased exposure). The framework was applied to 112 estuaries and their contributing watersheds across the contiguous U.S., specifically to look at regional variability in estuarine vulnerability to nutrient loading. Study findings revealed that the largest increases in estuarine nutrient loads are expected in the North and South Atlantic regions and eastern Gulf of Mexico, while the lowest increase is expected in the North and South Pacific regions and the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the North Atlantic and the South Pacific had the highest adaptive capacity, which could potentially counteract the effects of LULC and climate change on nutrient loads. Our findings illustrate the benefits of integrating natural and socio-ecological factors to identify opportunities to develop adaptation plans and policies to mitigate ecological degradation in vitally important estuaries. A<a href="https://lisemontefiore.shinyapps.io/estuarine_vulnerability/"> web-based application</a> has been developed to visualize and download the data.

opencc-zeroJan 2023View details →

zenodo40/100

Data and code for paper "Freihardt (2024): Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population from Bangladesh. Climatic Change. DOI 10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6"

This dataset contains the temperature, precipitation, erosion, and perception data, as well as the analysis code in R necessary to replicate the results of the paper: Freihardt, J. (2024): Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population from Bangladesh. Climatic Change, 177, 25. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6.

opencc-by-4.0Feb 2023View details →

dryad40/100

Life on the edge: A new toolbox for population-level climate change vulnerability assessments

Global change is impacting biodiversity across all habitats on earth. New selection pressures from changing climatic conditions and other anthropogenic activities are creating heterogeneous ecological and evolutionary responses across many species' geographic ranges. Yet we currently lack standardised and reproducible tools to effectively predict the resulting patterns in species vulnerability to declines or range changes. We developed an informatic toolbox that integrates ecological, environmental and genomic data and analyses (environmental dissimilarity, species distribution models, landscape connectivity, neutral and adaptive genetic diversity and Genotype-Environment Associations) to estimate population vulnerability. In our toolbox, functions and data structures are coded in a standardised way so that it is applicable to any species or geographic region where appropriate data are available, for example individual or population sampling and genomic datasets (e.g. RAD-seq, ddRAD-seq, whole genome sequencing data) representing environmental variation across the species geographic range. We apply our toolbox to a georeferenced genomic dataset for the East African spiny reed frog (Afrixalus fornasini) to predict population vulnerability, as well as demonstrating that range loss projections based on adaptive variation can be accurately reproduced using data for two European bat species (Myotis escalerai, and M. crypticus). Our framework sets the stage for large scale, multi-species genomic datasets to be leveraged in a novel climate change vulnerability framework to quantify intraspecific differences in genetic diversity, local adaptation, range shifts and population vulnerability based on exposure, sensitivity, and range shift potential.

opencc-zeroJun 2023View details →

dryad40/100

Data from: Phenotypic plasticity and genetic diversity shed light on endemism of rare Boechera perstellata and its potential vulnerability to climate warming

Premise of the study: The rapid pace of contemporary environmental change puts many species at risk, especially rare species constrained by limited capacity to adapt or migrate due to low genetic diversity and/or fitness. But the ability to acclimate can provide another way to persist through change. We compared the capacity of rare Boechera perstellata (Braun's rockcress) and widespread B. laevigata to acclimate to change. Methods: We investigated the phenotypic plasticity of growth, biomass allocation, and leaf morphology of individuals of B. perstellata and B. laevigata propagated from seed collected from several populations throughout their ranges in a growth chamber experiment to assess their capacity to acclimate. Concurrently, we assessed the genetic diversity of sampled populations using 17 microsatellite loci to assess evolutionary potential. Key results: Plasticity was limited in both rare B. perstellata and widespread B. laevigata, but differences in the plasticity of root traits between species suggest that B. perstellata may have less capacity to acclimate to change. In contrast to its widespread congener, B. perstellata exhibited no plasticity in response to temperature and weaker plastic responses to water availability. As expected, B. perstellata also had lower levels of observed heterozygosity than B. laevigata at the species level, but population-level trends in diversity measures were inconsistent due to high heterogeneity among B. laevigata populations. Conclusions: Overall, the ability of phenotypic plasticity to broadly explain the rarity of B. perstellata vs. commonness of B. laevigata is limited. However, some contextual aspects of our plasticity findings compared with its relatively low genetic variability may shed light on the narrow range and habitat associations of B. perstellata and suggest its vulnerability to climate warming due to acclimatory and evolutionary constraints.

opencc-zeroSep 2023View details →

dryad40/100

Data from: Climate change alters global invasion vulnerability among ecoregions

Aim: We assess climate similarity among global freshwater and terrestrial ecoregions under historical and future climate scenarios to determine where climate change will impact the climate filter of invasion process. Location: Global. Methods: We used the Climatch algorithm to conduct a climate-match analysis to quantify the climate similarity between freshwater and terrestrial ecoregions of the world. Climate match was modelled between all freshwater and terrestrial ecoregions. The analysis was conducted under historical climates and projected climates of 2090 under three shared-socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5. Climate matches of each ecoregion were presented as mean climate match to all other ecoregions. Friedman's non-parametric rank sum two-way analysis of variance with repeated measures was used to examine differences in climate match between climate scenarios.

opencc-zeroSep 2023View details →

zenodo40/100

Genomic vulnerability of a freshwater salmonid under climate change

Understanding the adaptive potential of populations and species is pivotal for minimizing the loss of biodiversity in this era of rapid climate change. Adaptive potential has been estimated in various ways, including based on levels of standing genetic variation, presence of potentially beneficial alleles, and/or severity of environmental change. Kokanee salmon, the non-migratory ecotype of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), is culturally and economically important, and has already been impacted by the effects of climate change. To assess its climate vulnerability moving forward, we integrated analyses of standing genetic variation, genotype-environment associations and climate modeling based on sequence and structural genomic variation from 224 whole genomes sampled from 22 lakes from British Columbia and Yukon (Canada). We found that variables for extreme temperatures, particularly warmer temperatures, had the most pervasive signature of selection in the genome and were the strongest predictors of levels of standing variation and of putatively adaptive genomic variation, both sequence and structural. Genomic offset estimates, a measure of climate vulnerability, were significantly correlated with higher increases in extreme warm temperatures, further highlighting the risk of summer heat waves that are predicted to increase in frequency in the future. Levels of standing genetic variation, an important metric for population viability and resilience, were not correlated with genomic offset. Nonetheless, our combined approach highlights the importance of integrating different sources of information and genomic data to formulate more comprehensive and accurate predictions on the vulnerability of populations and species to future climate change.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2023View details →

dryad40/100