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43 results for “climatic refugia”
Shapefiles showing the locations of long-term climate change refugia and hotspots identified in the FairSeas report "A Climate Resilient Path for Ireland's Marine Protected Areas Network"
<p>Shapefiles created for the report "A Climate Resilient Path for Ireland’s Marine Protected Areas Network", an addendum chapter to "Revitalising Our Seas report: Identifying<br>Areas of Interest for Marine Protected Area Designation in Irish Waters"</p> <p>These shapefiles summarise long-term patterns that emerge from the spatial-meta analysis of physical-biogeochemical and species distribution modelling data, providing an overview of the distribution of climate change refugia and climate change hotspots across Ireland's National Marine Planning Framework between 2026 - 2069, and across the two emissions scenarios considered in the report (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). </p> <p>Filenames refer to the specific analysis each set of shapefiles belong to: Benthic habitats, benthic megafauna, pelagic habitats, pelagic megafauna and forage fish. Details of the modelling datasets used in each of these analyses, the meta-analysis method and shapefile creation can be found in Annex A1 in the report "A Climate Resilient Path for Ireland’s Marine Protected Areas Network".</p>
Climatic refugia and reduced extinction correlate with underdispersion in mammals and birds in Africa
Macroevolutionary patterns, often inferred from metrics of community relatedness, are often used to ascertain major evolutionary processes shaping communities. These patterns have been shown to be informative of biogeographic barriers, of habitat suitability and invasibility (especially with regards to environmental filtering), and of regions that function as evolutionary cradles (i.e., sources of diversification) or museums (i.e., regions of reduced extinction). Here, we analysed continental datasets of mammal and bird distributions to identify primary drivers of community evolution on the African continent for mostly-endothermic vertebrates. We find that underdispersion (i.e., relatively low phylogenetic diversity compared to species richness) closely correlates with specific ecoregions that have been identified as climatic refugia in the literature, regardless of whether these specific regions have been touted as cradles or museums. Using theoretical models of identical communities that differ only with respect to extinction rates, we find that even small suppressions of extinction rates can result in underdispersed communities, supporting the hypothesis that climatic stability can lead to underdispersion. We posit that large-scale patterns of under- and overdispersion between regions of similar species richness are more reflective of a particular region's extinction potential, and that the very nature of refugia can lead to underdispersion via the steady accumulation of species richness through diversification within the same ecoregion during climatic cycles. Thus, patterns of environmental filtering can be obfuscated by environments that coincide with biogeographic refugia, and considerations of regional biogeographic history are paramount for inferring macroevolutionary processes. --
When resilience is not enough: 2022 extreme marine heatwave threatens climatic refugia for a habitat-forming Mediterranean octocoral
<p>Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide, and the Mediterranean Sea is no exception. Extreme climatic events, such as marine heat waves (MHWs), are increasing in frequency, extent, and intensity during the last decades, which has been associated with an increase in mass mortality events for multiple species. Coralligenous assemblages, where the octocoral <em>Paramuricea clavata</em> lives, are strongly affected by MHWs. The Medes Islands Marine Reserve (NW Mediterranean) was considered a climate refugia for <em>P. clavata</em>, as their populations were showing some resilience to these changing conditions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of the MHWs that occurred between 2016 and 2022 in seven shallow populations of the octocoral <em>P. clavata</em> from a Mediterranean Marine Protected Area. The years that the mortality rates increased significantly were associated with the ones with strong MHWs, 2022 being the one with higher mortalities. In 2022, with 50 MHW days, the proportion of total affected colonies was almost 70%, with a proportion of the injured surface of almost 40%, reaching levels never attained in our study site since the monitoring was started. We also found spatial variability between the monitored populations. Whereas few of them showed low levels of mortality, others lost around 75% of their biomass. The significant impacts documented here raise concerns about the future of shallow <em>P. clavata</em> populations across the Mediterranean, suggesting that the resilience of this species may not be maintained to sustain these populations face the ongoing warming trends.</p>
Data from: Integrating genomic data and simulations to evaluate alternative species distribution models and improve predictions of glacial refugia and future responses to climate change
<p>Climate change poses a threat to biodiversity, and it is unclear whether species can adapt to or tolerate new conditions, or migrate to areas with suitable habitats. Reconstructions of range shifts that occurred in response to environmental changes since the last glacial maximum from species distribution models (SDMs) can provide useful data to inform conservation efforts. However, different SDM algorithms and climate reconstructions often produce contrasting patterns, and validation methods typically focus on accuracy in recreating current distributions, limiting their relevance for assessing predictions to the past or future. We modeled historically suitable habitat for the threatened North American tree green ash (<em>Fraxinus pennsylvanica</em>) using 24 SDMs built using two climate models, three calibration regions, and four modeling algorithms. We evaluated the SDMs using contemporary data with spatial block cross-validation and compared the relative support for alternative models using a novel integrative method based on coupled demographic-genetic simulations. We simulated genomic datasets using habitat suitability of each of the 24 SDMs in a spatially-explicit model. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) was then used to evaluate the support for alternative SDMs through comparisons to an empirical population genomic dataset. Models had very similar performance when assessed with contemporary occurrences using spatial cross-validation, but ABC model selection analyses consistently supported SDMs based on the CCSM climate model, an intermediate calibration extent, and the generalized linear modeling algorithm. Finally, we projected the future range of green ash under four climate change scenarios. Future projections using the SDMs selected via ABC suggest only minor shifts in suitable habitat for this species, while some of those that were rejected predicted dramatic changes. Our results highlight the different inferences that may result from the application of alternative distribution modeling algorithms and provide a novel approach for selecting among a set of competing SDMs with independent data.</p>
Climatic refugia and reduced extinction correlate with underdispersion in mammals and birds in Africa
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Data from: Integrating genomic data and simulations to evaluate alternative species distribution models and improve predictions of glacial refugia and future responses to climate change
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When resilience is not enough: 2022 extreme marine heatwave threatens climatic refugia for a habitat-forming Mediterranean octocoral
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Spatial priorities for climate-change refugia and connectivity for British Columbia (Version 1.1)
<p>Climate-informed conservation priorities in British Columbia (Version 1.1)</p> <p>Territorial acknowledgement:</p> <p>We respectfully acknowledge that we live and work across diverse unceded territories and treaty lands and pay our respects to the First Nations, Inuit and Métis ancestors of these places. We honour our connections to these lands and waters and reaffirm our relationships with one another.</p> <p><br>Suggested citation:</p> <p>Stolar, J., D. Stralberg, I. Naujokaitis-Lewis, S.E. Nielsen, and G. Kehm. 2024. Spatial priorities for climate-change refugia and connectivity for British Columbia (Version 1.1). Place of publication: University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.10603162</p> <p>Corresponding author: stolar@ualberta.ca</p> <p><br>Summary:</p> <p>The purpose of this project is to identify spatial locations of (a) vulnerabilities within British Columbia’s current network of protected areas and (b) priorities for conservation and management of natural landscapes within British Columbia under a range of future climate-change scenarios. This involved adaptation and implementation of existing continental- and provincial-scale frameworks for identifying areas that have potential to serve as refugia from climate change or corridors for species migration.</p> <p>Outcomes of this work include the provision of practical guidance for protected areas network design and vulnerabilities identification under climate change, with application to other regions and jurisdictions. Project results, in the form of multiple spatial prioritization scenarios, may be used to evaluate the resilience of the existing protected area network and other conservation designations to better understand the risks to British Columbia’s biodiversity in our changing climate.</p> <p><br>Description:</p> <p>These raster layers represent different scenarios of Zonation rankings of conservation priorities for climate resilience and connectivity between current and 2080s conditions for a provincial-scale analysis. Input conservation features included metrics of macrorefugia (forward and backward climate velocity (km/year), overlapping future and current habitat suitability for ~900 rare species in BC), microrefugia (presence of old growth ecosystems, drought refugia, glaciers/cool slopes/wetlands, and geodiversity), and connectivity. Please see details in the accompanying report.</p> <p><br>File nomenclature:</p> <p>.zip folder (Stolar_et_al_2024_CiCP_Zenodo_upload_Version_1.1.zip):<br>Contains the files listed below.</p> <p>Macrorefugia (2080s_macrorefugia.tif):<br>Scenarios for each taxonomic group (equal weightings for all species) (Core-area Zonation Function)<br>Climate-type velocity + species scenarios from above (Core-area Zonation; equal weightings)</p> <p>Microrefugia (microrefugia.tif):<br>Scenario with old growth forest habitat, landscape geodiversity, wetlands/cool slopes/glaciers, drought refugia (Core-area Zonation; equal weightings)</p> <p>Overall scenario (2080s_macro_micro_connectivity.tif):<br>Inputs from above (with equal weightings) + connectivity metrics (each weighted at 0.1) (Additive Benefit Function Zonation)</p> <p>Conservation priorities (Conservation_priorities_2080s.tif):<br>Overall scenario from above extracted to regions of low human footprint.</p> <p>Restoration priorities (Restoration_priorities_2080s.tif):<br>Overall scenario from above extracted to regions of high human footprint.</p> <p>Accompanying report (Stolar_et_al_2024_CiCP_Zenodo_upload_Version_1.1.pdf):<br>Documentation of rationale, methods and interpretation.</p> <p>READ_ME file (READ_ME_PLEASE.txt):<br>Metadata.</p> <p><br>Legend interpretation:</p> <p>Ranked Zonation priorities increase from 0 (lowest) to 1 (highest).</p> <p>Raster information:</p> <p>Columns and Rows: 1597, 1368<br>Number of Bands: 1<br>Cell Size (X, Y): 1000, 1000<br>Format: TIFF<br>Pixel Type: floating point <br>Compression: LZW</p> <p><br>Spatial reference:</p> <p>XY Coordinate System: NAD_1983_Albers<br>Linear Unit: Meter (1.000000)<br>Angular Unit: Degree (0.0174532925199433)<br>false_easting: 1000000<br>false_northing: 0<br>central_meridian: -126<br>standard_parallel_1: 50<br>standard_parallel_2: 58.5<br>latitude_of_origin: 45<br>Datum: D_North_American_1983</p> <p><br>Extent:</p> <p>West -139.061502 East -110.430823 <br>North 60.605550 South 47.680823 </p> <p><br>Disclaimer: </p> <p>The University of Alberta (UofA) is furnishing this deliverable "as is". UofA does not provide any warranty of the contents of the deliverable whatsoever, whether express, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty that the contents of the deliverable will be error-free.</p> <p><br>Funding:<br> <br>We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Province of British Columbia through the Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship) and the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, the BC Parks Living Lab for Climate Change and Conservation, and the Wilburforce Foundation.</p>
Modelling 21st-century refugia and the impact of climate change on Amazonia's largest primates
<p>Edaphic and vegetation conditions can render climatically suitable sites inadequate for a species to persist, constraining the amount of suitable habitat and the possibilities of tracking preferred climatic conditions as they shift in response to climate change. We combined climatic and remotely sensed data to model current and future distributions of nine extant taxa of ateline primates across the Amazon basin. We used the models to identify and quantify potential range changes and refugia of suitable habitats from the present to the latter half of the 21st century.<strong> </strong>We applied an ensemble forecasting approach for species distribution models using 596 spatially rarefied occurrences. We parameterised these models by combining reflectance data from a basin‐wide Landsat TM/ETM+ image composite, three sets of bioclimatic layers containing data for the current period, and two different (moderate and worst-case) climate change scenarios for 2041-2070. Eight out of nine taxa are likely to experience pronounced range losses, with seven of them predicted to lose over 50% of their currently suitable habitats irrespective of climate change scenarios. Modelled ateline richness exhibited a broad decrease in high-richness areas and a possible redistribution along the northernmost parts of western Amazonia. Refugia from 21st-century climate change for the whole complex was mostly concentrated in western Amazonia, especially in its southern part. We identified hotspots of vulnerability to climate change and 21st-century refugia for all Amazonian atelines while accounting for habitat characteristics that are important to guarantee the continued existence of suitable habitats for these strictly arboreal taxa. Increasing the understanding of climate change impacts on Amazonia's largest primates can help to inform spatial conservation planning decisions and management to sustain forest-dwelling biodiversity over large areas such as Amazonia.</p>
Data from: Influence of topographic features and vegetation on climate refugia in the boreal plains
<ol> <li>Climate-change refugia can be defined by the strength of influence of physiographic and biotic properties on local atmospheric conditions relative to regional averages. In flatter landscapes, thermal heterogeneity and decoupling may be limited. We sought to quantify the magnitude of climate decoupling produced by topographic variation and vegetation in North America's boreal-parkland-grassland transition zone.</li> <li>We deployed iButton data loggers at four hill and 12 river valley systems along a latitudinal gradient in Alberta, Canada (N = 240) between 2014 and 2018. We modelled monthly temperature metrics by season as a function of topography and percent vegetation cover using general linear mixed effect models.</li> <li>Summer T<sub>max</sub> varied ~6 <sup>o</sup>C across the entire elevation gradient sampled, and ~3.5 <sup>o</sup>C within the range of topographic conditions sampled, after accounting for latitude. We found that canopy cover type had a negative effect on most temperature metrics, with coniferous forests having the strongest effect on T<sub>min </sub>and T<sub>ave</sub>. Spatial predictions derived from models based on iButton sensors resulted in similar regional patterns compared to a gridded climate product (ClimateNA), but the difference between them increased with potential solar radiation, vegetation cover and terrain roughness.</li> <li>We observed that local T<sub>max</sub> on steep, north-facing slopes with relatively low levels of potential solar radiation were 0.5 – 1.5 <sup>o</sup>C cooler than the surrounding landscape on average, while terrain roughness may further contribute to 0.5 – 0.7 <sup>o</sup>C. When combined, these local landscape characteristics may compensate for expected warming by the end of the century. Topographic and vegetation characteristics that are related to colder local climates should be considered in the evaluation of future climate-change impacts and to identify potential refugia from climate-change.</li> </ol>
Data from: Underlying geology and climate interactively shape climate change refugia in mountain streams
<p>Identifying climate-change refugia is a key adaptation strategy for reducing global warming impacts. Knowledge of the effects of underlying geology on thermal regime along climate gradients and the ecological responses to the geology-controlled thermal regime is essential to plan appropriate climate adaptation strategies. In the present study, the dominance of volcanic rocks in the watershed is used as a landscape-scale surrogate for cold groundwater inputs to clarify the importance of underlying geology in stream ecosystems along climate gradients. First, using hundreds of monitoring stations distributed across multiple catchments, we explored the relationship between watershed geology and the mean summer water temperature of mountain streams along climate gradients in the Japanese archipelago. Mean summer water temperature was explained by the interaction between the watershed geology and climate in addition to independent effects. The cooling effect supported by volcanic rocks reached up to 3.3°C among study regions, which was more pronounced in streams with less summer precipitation or lower air temperatures. Next, we examined the function of volcanic streams as cold refugia under contemporary and future climatic conditions. Community composition analyses revealed that volcanic streams hosted distinct stream communities composed of more cold-water species compared with non-volcanic streams. Scenario analyses based on multiple GCMs and RCPs revealed a geology-related pattern of thermal habitat loss for cold-water species. Non-volcanic streams rapidly declined in thermally suitable habitats for lotic sculpins even under the lowest emission scenario (RCP 2.6). In contrast, most volcanic streams will be sustained below the thermal threshold, especially for low and mid-level emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5). However, the distinct stream community in volcanic streams and geology-dependent habitat loss for lotic sculpins was not uniform and was more pronounced in streams with less summer precipitation or lower air temperatures. These findings highlight that underlying geology, climate variability, and their interaction should be considered simultaneously for effective management of climate-change refugia in mountain streams. </p>
Data from: Climate refugia along Lake Superior's shores: Disjunct arctic-alpine plants rely on cool shoreline temperatures but are unlikely to persist under climate warming
<p>Climate refugia can serve as remnant habitat or stepping stones for species dispersal under climate warming. The largest freshwater lake by surface area, Lake Superior, USA and Canada, serves as a model system for understanding cooling-mediated local refugia, as its cool water temperatures and wave action have maintained shoreline habitats suitable for southern disjunct populations of arctic-alpine plants since deglaciation. Here we seek to explain spatial patterns and environmental drivers of arctic-alpine plant refugia along Lake Superior's shores, and assess future risk to refugia under moderate (+3.5 °C) and warmest (+5.7 °C) climate warming scenarios. First, we examined how the interactive effects of summer surface water temperatures and wind affected onshore temperatures, resulting in areas of cooler refugia. Second, we developed an ecological niche model for presence of disjunct arctic-alpine refugia (pooling 1253 occurrences from 58 species) along the lake's shoreline. Third, we fit species distribution models for 20 of the most common arctic-alpine disjunct species and predicted presence to identify refugia hotspots. Finally, we used the two climate warming scenarios to predict changes in presence of refugia and disjunct hotspots. Bedrock type, elevation above water, inland distance, July land surface temperature from MODIS/Terra satellite, and near-shore depth of water were the best predictors of disjunct occurrences. Overall, we predicted 2,236 km of the shoreline (51%) as disjunct refugia habitat for at least one species under current conditions, but this was reduced to 20% and 7% with moderate (894 km) and warmest (313 km) climate change projections.</p>
Shapefiles showing the locations of long-term climate change refugia and hotspots identified in the FutureMARES report "D6.3, Climate ready strategies for nature-based solutions"
<p>Shapefiles created for the report "D6.3, Climate ready strategies for nature-based solutions", a deliverable report from the Horizon Europe project FutureMARES</p> <p>These shapefiles summarise long-term patterns that emerge from the spatial-meta analysis of physical-biogeochemical and species distribution modelling data, providing an overview of the distribution of climate change refugia and climate change hotspots across six European case study areas between 2026 - 2069, and across the five scenarios considered in the FutureMARES project (Global Sustainability RCP2.6, National Enterprise RCP8.5, World Market RCP8.5, Status Quo RCP2.6 and Status Quo RCP8.5). </p> <p>Filenames refer to the case study area and scenario each set of shapefiles belong to. Details of the modelling datasets used in each of these analyses, the meta-analysis method and shapefile creation can be found in the relevant chapter in the report "D6.3, Climate ready strategies for nature-based solutions".</p>
Data from: Climate refugia along Lake Superior’s shores: Disjunct arctic-alpine plants rely on cool shoreline temperatures but are unlikely to persist under climate warming
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Data from: The potential role of temperate Japanese regions as refugia for the coral Acropora hyacinthus in the face of climate change
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Modelling 21st-century refugia and the impact of climate change on Amazonia's largest primates
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Data from: Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal–grassland transition zone in western Canada: implications for climate change refugia
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Data from: Climatic refugia boosted allopatric diversification in Western Mediterranean vipers
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Data from: Biotic velocity identifies potential climate refugia beyond climate velocity estimates
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Data from: Maps and additional figures for climate change refugia hotspots for priority species: A case study in East Africa
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OpenNeuro
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