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17 results for “dynamic occupancy model”
Data from: Distinguishing distribution dynamics from temporary emigration using dynamic occupancy models
1. Dynamic occupancy models are popular for estimating dynamic distribution rates (colonization and extinction) from repeated presence/absence surveys of unmarked animals. This approach assumes closure among repeated samples within primary periods, allowing estimation of dynamic rates between these periods. However, the impact of temporary emigration (reversible changes in sampling availability) on dynamic rate estimates, has not been tested. 2. Using simulated data, we investigated the degree to which temporary emigration could mislead researchers interested in quantifying dynamics. We then compared results from three avian point count datasets to evaluate the likelihood that temporary emigration confounds estimates of dynamics for 19 species under a popular sampling protocol. 3. Simulated experiments indicated that when secondary periods were open to temporary emigration, presence of dynamics was correctly identified ≥ 95.1% of the time, and dynamic rate estimates were accurate. However, dynamic rate estimates were biased when secondary periods were closed to temporary emigration. In empirical datasets, dynamic occupancy models had greater support than closed models for all species when secondary sampling periods occurred in immediate succession (i.e., 3 samples within 10 minutes); however, our results suggest that this is because these estimates were heavily influenced by temporary emigration. When counts within a primary period were separated by 24-48 hours, we found evidence of dynamics for less than half of these species. We recommend an alternative sampling approach that allows accurate estimation of dynamic rates when temporary emigration is of no interest, and introduce a novel model for estimating both processes simultaneously in rare cases where they are both of biological interest. 4. Concern for violating the occupancy modeling closure assumption has led to widespread recommendations that samples within primary periods be conducted extremely close in time. However, this may not be the best approach when interest is in quantifying dynamic rates. While dynamic occupancy models provide estimates of 'colonization' and 'extinction,' these values do not inherently represent dynamics unless temporary emigration has been explicitly modeled, or accounted for with sampling design. Naiveté to this fact can result in incorrect conclusions about biological processes.
Data from: Distinguishing distribution dynamics from temporary emigration using dynamic occupancy models
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Data: Using environmental DNA and occupancy modeling to estimate rangewide metapopulation dynamics
<p>We demonstrate the power of combining two emergent tools for resolving rangewide metapopulation dynamics. First, we employed environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys to efficiently generate multi-season rangewide site occupancy histories. Second, we developed a novel<i> </i>dynamic, spatial multiscale occupancy model to estimate metapopulation dynamics. The model incorporates spatial relationships, explicitly accounts for non-detection bias and allows direct evaluation of the drivers of extinction and colonization. We applied these tools to examine metapopulation dynamics of endangered tidewater goby, a species endemic to California estuarine habitats. We analyzed rangewide eDNA data from 190 geographically isolated sites (813 total water samples) surveyed from two years (2016 and 2017). Rangewide estimates of the proportion of sites that were occupied varied little between 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.51). However, there was evidence of extinction and colonization dynamics. The probability of extinction of an occupied site (0.106) and probability of colonization of an unoccupied site (0.085) were nearly equal. Stability in site occupancy proportions combined with nearly equal rates of extinction and colonization suggests a dynamic equilibrium between the two years surveyed. Assessment of covariate effects revealed that colonization probability increased as the number of occupied neighboring sites increased and as distance between occupied sites decreased. We show that eDNA surveys can rapidly provide a snapshot of a species distribution over a broad geographic range, and when these surveys are paired with occupancy modeling, can uncover metapopulation dynamics and their drivers.</p>
Data from: Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data
While large carnivores are recovering in Europe, assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Because they are highly mobile, elusive and live at very low density, modeling their distributions presents several challenges due to i) their imperfect detectability, ii) their dynamic ranges over time and iii) their monitoring at large scales consisting mainly of opportunistic data without a formal measure of the sampling effort. Here, we focused on wolves (Canis lupus) that have been recolonizing France since the early 90's. We evaluated the sampling effort a posteriori as the number of observers present per year in a cell based on their location and professional activities. We then assessed wolf range dynamics from 1994 to 2016, while accounting for species imperfect detection and time- and space-varying sampling effort using dynamic site-occupancy models. Ignoring the effect of sampling effort on species detectability led to underestimating the number of occupied sites by more than 50% on average. Colonization appeared to be negatively influenced by the proportion of a site with an altitude higher than 2500m and positively influenced by the number of observed occupied sites at short and longdistances , forest cover, farmland cover and mean altitude. The expansion rate, defined as the number of occupied sites in a given year divided by the number of occupied sites in the previous year, decreased over the first years of the study, then remained stable from 2000 to 2016. Our work shows that opportunistic data can be analyzed with species distribution models that control for imperfect detection, pending a quantification of sampling effort. Our approach has the potential for being used by decisionmakers to target sites where large carnivores are likely to occur and mitigate conflicts.
Data from: A model for non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics utilizing data on species occupancy, patch ages and landscape history
1. The distribution pattern of many species reflects the past rather than the current structure of landscapes. Consequently, species are most often not in equilibrium with the current landscape structure. Yet this is a well-known fact, there is no appropriate approach to estimate the colonization rate of non-equilibrium species based on only data on the species occurrence pattern in the landscape. 2. We present an approach to estimate the colonization rate of non-equilibrium metapopulations. The approach requires only data on species presence/absence among its patches (occurrence pattern), data on patch ages and data on the historic distribution of the patches in the landscape. By estimating the past occurrence patterns and colonization events leading to the current pattern of occupied and non-occupied patches, we estimate the colonization rate, including the dispersal kernel. We also show how to estimate effects of local patch conditions and how to include an independent estimate of the local extinction rate based on other data. We use nine epiphytic lichen species confined to beech trees to illustrate the method. 3. Five species had restricted dispersal range, between 200 and 4700 m, and their colonization rate decreased with increasing fragmentation. Species colonization rates were related to niche width. Among the demographic parameters, the force of colonization was more important than the dispersal range in explaining the colonization rates. Local patch conditions did not explain the colonization probability of any species. In metapopulation projections that did not account for restricted dispersal range, higher future metapopulation sizes were projected. 4. Synthesis. The presented approach uses data on only species occurrence, patch age and landscape history to estimate the species colonization rate and dispersal kernel. It can also utilize independent data on local extinction rate. Rather than identifying factors explaining the occurrence pattern, the model estimates the rate of change in the occurrence pattern. This dynamic modelling allows testing general and applied questions on the dynamics or viability of metapopulations of sessile species. The approach is applicable for species whose distribution pattern reflects the past rather than the current landscape structure, e.g. certain epiphytes and ground-floor plants.
Data from: Novel application of explicit dynamics occupancy models to ongoing aquatic invasions
1. Identification of suitable habitat where invasive species can establish is an important step towards controlling their spread. Accurate identification is difficult for new or slow invaders because unoccupied habitats may be suitable given enough time for dispersal and occupied habitats may prove to be unsuitable for establishment. 2. To identify suitable habitat of a recent invader, I used an explicit dynamics occupancy modeling framework to evaluate habitat covariates related to successful and failed establishments of American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) within the Yellowstone River floodplain of Montana, USA from 2012-2016. 3. During this 5-year period, bullfrogs failed to establish at most sites they colonized. Bullfrog establishment was most likely to occur and least likely to fail at sites closest to human-modified ponds and lakes and those with emergent vegetation. These habitat covariates were generally associated with the presence of permanent water. 4. Suitable habitat for bullfrog establishment is abundant in the Yellowstone River floodplain, though many sites with suitable habitat remain uncolonized. Thus, the maximum distribution of bullfrogs is much greater than their current distribution. 5. Synthesis and applications. Focused control efforts on habitats with or proximate to permanent waters are most likely to reduce the potential for bullfrog establishment and spread. The novel application of explicit dynamics occupancy models is a useful and widely applicable tool for guiding management efforts towards those habitats where new or slow invaders are most likely to establish and persist.07-Aug-2017
Data from: A multistate dynamic site occupancy model for spatially aggregated sessile communities
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Data from: A model for non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics utilizing data on species occupancy, patch ages and landscape history
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Data from: Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data
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Data from: Novel application of explicit dynamics occupancy models to ongoing aquatic invasions
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Data: Using environmental DNA and occupancy modeling to estimate rangewide metapopulation dynamics
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Data from: Multi-trophic occupancy modeling connects temporal dynamics of woodpeckers and beetle sign following fire
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Data from: Dynamic occupancy modeling reveals a hierarchy of competition among fishers, grey foxes, and ringtails
1. Determining how species coexist is critical for understanding functional diversity, niche partitioning and interspecific interactions. Identifying the direct and indirect interactions among sympatric carnivores that enable their coexistence are particularly important to elucidate because they are integral for maintaining ecosystem function. 2. We studied the effects of removing 9 fishers (Pekania pennanti) on their population dynamics and used this perturbation to elucidate the interspecific interactions among fishers, grey foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), and ringtails (Bassariscus astutus). Grey foxes (family: Canidae) are likely to compete with fishers due to their similar body sizes and dietary overlap, and ringtails (family: Procyonidae), like fishers, are semi-arboreal species of conservation concern. We used spatial capture-recapture to investigate fisher population numbers and dynamic occupancy models that incorporated interspecific interactions to investigate the effects members of these species had on the colonization and persistence of each other's site occupancy. 3. The fisher population showed no change in density for up to three years following the removals of fishers for translocations. In contrast, fisher site occupancy decreased in the years immediately following the translocations. During this same time period, site occupancy by grey foxes increased and remained elevated through the end of the study. 4. We found a complicated hierarchy among fishers, foxes, and ringtails. Fishers affected grey fox site persistence negatively but had a positive effect on their colonization. Foxes had a positive effect on ringtail site colonization. Thus, fishers were the dominant small carnivore where present and negatively affected foxes directly and ringtails indirectly. 5. Coexistence among the small carnivores we studied appears to reflect dynamic spatial partitioning. Conservation and management efforts should investigate how intraguild interactions may influence the recolonization of carnivores to previously occupied landscapes.
Data from: A multi-state dynamic occupancy model to estimate local colonization-extinction rates and patterns of co-occurrence between two or more interacting species
1. Although ecology is rife with theory that explores how multiple species co-occur through space and time, the field lacks robust statistical models to parameterize this theory with empirical data, particularly when species are detected imperfectly and data are collected as a time-series. 2. We address this need by developing an occupancy model that estimates local colonization and extinction rates for two or more interacting species when data are collected across multiple sampling occasions. This model estimates how community composition at a site may change across sampling occasions by assuming the latent occupancy state is a categorical random variable. We used a multinomial-logit model to parameterize species-specific parameters and pairwise interactions between species, both of which can be made a function of covariates. These transition probabilities between community states can then be converted to occupancy or co-occurrence probabilities to determine how community composition varies along an environmental gradient or through time. 3. As an example, we estimate patterns of co-occurrence between coyote (Canis latrans), Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana), and raccoon (Procyon lotor) in Chicago, Illinois, USA with data from a multi-year camera trapping study. Models with pairwise interactions between species greatly out performed models that assumed independence between species. Opossum and raccoon, for example, were far less likely to go extinct in habitat patches where coyotes were present. 4. Community composition at a site depends on species interactions and the local environment. Our model can separate such effects by estimating the underlying processes that define species occurrence patterns. As a result, our model can more explicitly quantify a wide range of ecological dynamics and therefore be used to empirically test ecological theory, such as estimating priority effects at a site or turnover rates between species, both of which can be made to vary as a function of covariates.
Data from: A multi-state dynamic occupancy model to estimate local colonization-extinction rates and patterns of co-occurrence between two or more interacting species
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Data from: Dynamic occupancy modeling reveals a hierarchy of competition among fishers, grey foxes, and ringtails
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Data from: Dynamic multi-species occupancy models reveal individualistic habitat preferences in a high-altitude grassland bird community
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