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2 results for “fertility rates by education”
Education- and age-specific fertility rates for 50 African and Latin American countries between 1970 and 2020
<p><strong>Version 2</strong></p> <p>Education- and age-specific fertility rates for 50 African and Latin American countries between 1970 and 2020 as published in<strong> <a href="https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/49/31/">Durowaa-Boateng et. al (2023</a></strong><a href="10.4054/DemRes.2023.49.31">)</a>. </p> <p>The data and figures can be accessed and downloaded from <strong><a href="https://populationafrica.org/">https://populationafrica.org/</a>.</strong></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Education- and age-specific fertility rates for 50 African and Latin American countries between 1970 and 2020</strong>.</p> <p>The fertility rates are consistent with the United Nation's World Population Prospects (UN WPP) 2022 fertility rates.</p> <p>The Bayesian model developed to reconstruct the fertility rates using Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN WPP is published in a <a href="https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18890/">working paper</a>.</p> <p><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> <p>Consistent and reliable time series of education- and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing countries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility along periods and cohorts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the UN World Population Prospects. In our case study regions, we reconstruct age- and education-specific fertility rates which are consistent with the UN age specific fertility rates by four levels of education for 50 African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in five-year steps. Our results show that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education- and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends, and age and education specific differentials.</p> <p><strong>Funding:</strong></p> <p>These data sets are part of the <a href="https://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/research/research-projects/bayesedu">BayesEdu Project </a>at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) funded from the “Innovation Fund Research, Science and Society” by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).</p> <p><strong>Variables:</strong></p> <p>Country: Country names</p> <p>Education: Four education levels, No Education, Primary Education, Secondary Education and Higher Education.</p> <p>Age group: Five-year age groups between 15-19 and 45-49. </p> <p>Year: Five-year periods between 1970 and 2020.</p> <p>Median: Median education and age-specific fertility rate estimate </p> <p>Upper_CI: 95% Upper Credible Interval</p> <p>Lower_CI: 95% Lower Credible Interval</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>List of countries:</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p>Angola</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Benin</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Brazil</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Burkina Faso</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Burundi</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Cameroon</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Central African Republic</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Chad</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Colombia</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Comoros</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Congo</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Côte D'Ivoire</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>DR Congo</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Ecuador</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Egypt</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Eswatini</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Ethiopia</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Gabon</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Gambia</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Ghana</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Guatemala</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Guinea</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Honduras</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Kenya</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Lesotho</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Liberia</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Madagascar</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Malawi</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Mali</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Mexico</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Morocco</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Mozambique</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Namibia</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Nicaragua</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Niger</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Nigeria</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Paraguay</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Peru</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Rwanda</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Sao Tome and Principe</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Senegal</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Sierra Leone</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>South Africa</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Sudan</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Tanzania</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Togo</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Tunisia</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Uganda</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Zambia</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Zimbabwe</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-saharan Africa case study
<p><strong>A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-saharan Africa case study</strong></p> <p>The fertility rates are consistent with the United Nation World Population Prospects (UN WPP) 2022 fertility rates.</p> <p>The Bayesian model developed to reconstruct the fertility rates using Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN WPP is published in a <a href="https://epub.oeaw.ac.at/0xc1aa5576_0x003e65e0.pdf">working paper</a>. </p> <p><strong>Abstract</strong></p> <p>The future world population growth and size will be largely determined by the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Correct estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for projecting the future population. Yet, consistent cross-country comparable estimates of education-specific fertility for sub-Saharan African countries are still lacking. We propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates by using the patchy Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data and the United Nations’ (UN) reliable estimates of total fertility rates (TFR). Our model produces estimates that match the UN TFR to different extents (in other words, estimates of varying levels of consistency with the UN). We present three model specifications: consistent but not identical with the UN, fully-consistent (nearly identical) with the UN, and consistent with the DHS. Further, we provide a full time series of education-specific TFR estimates covering five-year periods between 1980 and 2014 for 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that the DHS-consistent estimates are usually higher than the UN-fully-consistent ones. The differences between the three model estimates vary substantially in size across countries, yielding 1980-2014 fertility trends that differ from each other mostly in level only but in some cases also in direction.</p> <p><strong>Funding</strong></p> <p>The data set are part of the <a href="https://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/research/research-projects/bayesedu">BayesEdu Project </a>at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) funded from the “Innovation Fund Research, Science and Society” by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).</p> <p>We provide education-specific total fertility rates (ESTFR) from three model specifications: (1) estimated TFR consistent but not identical with the TFR estimated by the UN (“Main model (UN-consistent)”; (2) estimated TFR fully consistent (nearly identical) with the TFR estimated by the UN ( “UN-fully -consistent”, and (3) estimated TFR consistent only with the TFR estimated by the DHS ( “DHS-consistent”).</p> <p>For education- and age-specific fertility rates that are UN-fully consistent, please see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8182960</p> <p><strong>Variables</strong></p> <p>Country: Country names</p> <p>Education: Four education levels, No Education, Primary Education, Secondary Education and Higher Education.</p> <p>Year: Five-year periods between 1980 and 2015.</p> <p>ESTFR: Median education-specific total fertility rate estimate </p> <p>sd: Standard deviation</p> <p>Upp50: 50% Upper Credible Interval</p> <p>Lwr50: 50% Lower Credible Interval</p> <p>Upp80: 80% Upper Credible Interval</p> <p>Lwr80: 80% Lower Credible Interval</p> <p>Model: Three model specifications as explained above and in the working paper. DHS-consistent, Main model (UN-consistent) and UN-fully consistent.</p> <p>List of countries:</p> <p>Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cote D'Ivoire, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe</p> <p> </p>
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