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4 results for “fine-scale climate”
Data from: Fine-scale refuges can buffer demographic and genetic processes against short-term climatic variation and disturbance: a 22 year case study of an arboreal marsupial
Ecological disturbance and climate are key drivers of temporal dynamics in the demography and genetic diversity of natural populations. Microscale refuges are known to buffer species' persistence against environmental change, but the effects of such refuges on demographic and genetic patterns in response to short-term environmental variation are poorly understood. We quantified demographic and genetic responses of mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) to rainfall variability (1992–2013) and to a major wildfire. We hypothesized that there would be underlying differences in demographic and genetic processes between an unburnt mesic refuge and a topographically exposed zone that was burnt in 2009. Fire caused a 2-year decrease in survival in the burnt zone, but the population grew after the fire due to immigration, leading to increased expected heterozygosity. We documented a fire-related behavioural shift, where the rate of movement by individuals in the unburnt refuge to the burnt zone decreased after fire. Irrespective of the fire, there were long-term differences in demographic and genetic parameters between the mesic/unburnt refuge and the nonmesic/burnt zone. Survival was high and unaffected by rainfall in the refuge, but lower and rainfall-dependent in the nonmesic zone. Net movement of individuals was directional, from the mesic refuge to the nonmesic zone, suggesting fine-scale source–sink dynamics. There were higher expected heterozygosity (HE) and temporal genetic stability in the refuge, but lower HE and marked temporal genetic structure in the exposed habitat, consistent with reduced generational overlap caused by elevated mortality and immigration. Thus, fine-scale refuges can mediate the short-term demographic and genetic effects of climate and ecological disturbance.
Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe
<p>We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the 21<sup>st</sup> century in Europe.</p> <p>Here we present a set of raster files that contain discrete zones of climatic stability and instability, also referred to as hotspots and coldspots. Our analysis of future climatic stability was based on projected changes of nine climate variables selected to proxy key aspects of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. The underlying climate projection, including different indices, are available at <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/3952159#.YNWN_OgzaUl">https://zenodo.org/record/3952159#.YNWN_OgzaUl</a>. The cumulative change of all nine climate variables, termed Aggregate Climate Change (ACC), is used to identify regions of significantly higher or lower climatic stability (Getis-Ord Gi* p-value < 0.05) across Europe. We carry out this assessment at the continental and regional scales. While the continental assessment reports the large-scale latitudinal and orographic patterns of climatic stability, the regional assessment explores the residual ACC variation that remained after extracting the large-scale continental trend. The raster files present climatic features that were identified to persist in their location throughout the 21<sup>st</sup> century (i.e., in periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2100) and were supported by a majority of climate projections considered in this study. Specifically, we considered five GCM-RCM pairs driven by two RCP scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The targeted areas of climatic stability were required to be confirmed by four out of five climate models nested within each RCP, at least.</p> <p>The used naming convention is as follows:</p> <ul> <li>Scale – Global, Regional</li> <li>Type of the zone – HotSpot (zone of significantly low climatic stability), ColdSpot (zone of significantly high climatic stability)</li> <li>Driving RCP scenario – RCP45, RCP85</li> </ul> <p>Raster files with RCP indicated in their name refer to either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5. These files contain two values referring to the presence (1) or absence (0) of climatic stability areas:</p> <p>Global_HotSpots _RCP45</p> <p>Global_ColdSpots _RCP45</p> <p>Regional_HotSpots _RCP45</p> <p>Regional_ColdSpots _RCP45</p> <p>Global_HotSpots _RCP85</p> <p>Global_ColdSpots _RCP85</p> <p>Regional_HotSpots _RCP85</p> <p>Regional_ColdSpots _RCP85</p> <p>Raster files without RCP code in their name contain combinations of both RCPs. The cell values indicate absence (0), presence in RCP4.5 OR RCP8.5 (1), or presence in RCP4.5 AND RCP8.5 (2) of climatic stability areas:</p> <p>Global_HotSpots</p> <p>Global_ColdSpots</p> <p>Regional_HotSpots</p> <p>Regional_ColdSpots</p> <p>The format of raster files is tiff. All data are in the GCS_WGS_1984 geographic coordinate system.</p>
Data from: Fine-scale refuges can buffer demographic and genetic processes against short-term climatic variation and disturbance: a 22 year case study of an arboreal marsupial
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Data from: Caribou, water, and ice – fine-scale movements of a migratory arctic ungulate in the context of climate change
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