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12 results for “fire regime change”
Assessment of the Effectiveness of Coarse Resolution Fire Products in Monitoring Long-term Changes in Fire Regime within Protected Areas in South Africa
<p>The dataset includes fire histrory (shapefiles with data perimeters for 2003-2020) within 3 protected areas in South Africa, Blyde, Manyeleti, and Songimvelo.</p>
Data from: Shifts in functional group community diversity of threatened mesic forests with changing fire regimes
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Changes in species composition mediate direct effects of climate change on future fire regimes of boreal forests in northeastern China
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It takes a few to tango: Changing climate and fire regimes can cause regeneration failure of two subalpine conifers
Environmental change is accelerating in the 21st century, but how multiple drivers may interact to alter forest resilience remains uncertain. In forests affected by large high-severity disturbances, tree regeneration is a resilience linchpin that shapes successional trajectories for decades. We modeled stands of two widespread western U.S. conifers, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia), in Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, USA) to ask (1) What combinations of distance to seed source, fire return interval, and warming-drying conditions cause postfire tree-regeneration failure? (2) If postfire tree regeneration was successful, how does early tree density differ under future climate relative to historical climate? We conducted a stand-level (1 ha) factorial simulation experiment using the individual-based forest process model iLand to identify combinations of fire return interval (11–100 yr), distance to seed source (50–1,000 m), and climate (historical, mid-21st century, late-21st century) where trees failed to regenerate by 30-yr postfire. If regeneration was successful, we compared stand densities between climate periods. Simulated postfire regeneration were surprisingly resilient to changing climate and fire drivers. Douglas-fir regeneration failed more frequently (55%) than lodgepole pine (28% and 16% for nonserotinous and serotinous stands, respectively). Distance to seed source was an important driver of regeneration failure for Douglas-fir and non-serotinous lodgepole pine; regeneration never failed when stands were 50 m from a seed source and nearly always failed when stands were 1 km away. Regeneration of serotinous lodgepole pine only failed when fire return intervals were ≤20 yr and stands were far (1 km) from a seed source. Warming climate increased regeneration success for Douglas-fir but did not affect lodgepole pine. If regeneration was successful, postfire density varied with climate. Dou
Data from: Fire-regime complacency and sensitivity to centennial- through millennial-scale climate change in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Colorado, U.S.A.
1. Key uncertainties in anticipating future fire regimes are their sensitivity to climate change, and the degree to which climate will impact fire regimes directly, through increasing the probability of fire, versus indirectly, through changes in vegetation and landscape flammability. 2. We studied the sensitivity of subalpine forest fire regimes (i.e., fire frequency, fire severity) to previously documented climate variability over the past 6000 years, utilizing pollen and macroscopic charcoal from high-resolution lake-sediment records in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. We combined data from the four lakes to provide composite records of vegetation and fire history within a 200 km2 study area. 3. Rates of forest burning were relatively complacent to millennial-scale summer cooling and decreased effective moisture. Mean return intervals between fire episodes, defined over 500-year periods, generally varied between 150-250 years, consistent with tree-ring-based estimates spanning recent centuries. Variability around these long-term means, however, was significantly correlated with variability in summer moisture (i.e., more burning with drier summers), inferred from existing lake-level and supporting paleoenvironmental records. 4. The most pronounced change in fire regimes was in response to decreased subalpine forest density ca. 2400 cal. year BP, itself a response to regional cooling. This indirect impact of climate was followed by a decrease in charcoal production per fire, a proxy for crown-fire severity, while the long-term rate of burning remained unchanged. Over the last 1500 years, increased summer evaporation and drought frequency were associated with increased fire severity, highlighting a direct link between fire and climate. 5. Synthesis: Subalpine forest fire history reveals complacency and sensitivity of fire regimes to changing vegetation and hydroclimate over the past 6000 years. Complacency is highlighted by non-varying fire frequency over millennia. Sensitivity is evident through changes in biomass burned per fire (and inferred fire severity), in response to climate-induced changes in forest density and, more recently, increased summer drought. Overall, the paleo record suggests that (i) fire severity may be more responsive to climate change than fire frequency in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and (ii) the indirect impacts of climate on vegetation and fuels are important mechanisms determining fire-regime response to climate change.
Data from: Fire-regime complacency and sensitivity to centennial- through millennial-scale climate change in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Colorado, U.S.A.
1. Key uncertainties in anticipating future fire regimes are their sensitivity to climate change, and the degree to which climate will impact fire regimes directly, through increasing the probability of fire, versus indirectly, through changes in vegetation and landscape flammability. 2. We studied the sensitivity of subalpine forest fire regimes (i.e., fire frequency, fire severity) to previously documented climate variability over the past 6000 years, utilizing pollen and macroscopic charcoal from high-resolution lake-sediment records in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. We combined data from the four lakes to provide composite records of vegetation and fire history within a 200 km2 study area. 3. Rates of forest burning were relatively complacent to millennial-scale summer cooling and decreased effective moisture. Mean return intervals between fire episodes, defined over 500-year periods, generally varied between 150-250 years, consistent with tree-ring-based estimates spanning recent centuries. Variability around these long-term means, however, was significantly correlated with variability in summer moisture (i.e., more burning with drier summers), inferred from existing lake-level and supporting paleoenvironmental records. 4. The most pronounced change in fire regimes was in response to decreased subalpine forest density ca. 2400 cal. year BP, itself a response to regional cooling. This indirect impact of climate was followed by a decrease in charcoal production per fire, a proxy for crown-fire severity, while the long-term rate of burning remained unchanged. Over the last 1500 years, increased summer evaporation and drought frequency were associated with increased fire severity, highlighting a direct link between fire and climate. 5. Synthesis: Subalpine forest fire history reveals complacency and sensitivity of fire regimes to changing vegetation and hydroclimate over the past 6000 years. Complacency is highlighted by non-varying fire frequency over millennia. Sensitivity is evident through changes in biomass burned per fire (and inferred fire severity), in response to climate-induced changes in forest density and, more recently, increased summer drought. Overall, the paleo record suggests that (i) fire severity may be more responsive to climate change than fire frequency in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and (ii) the indirect impacts of climate on vegetation and fuels are important mechanisms determining fire-regime response to climate change.
Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change
Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire-regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30-yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P-PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire-regime responses to 21st-century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30-yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st-century climate change.
Data from: Resistance and resilience to changing climate and fire regime depend on plant functional traits
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Data from: Demographic processes and fire regimes interact to influence plant population persistence under changing climates
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Data from: Fire-regime complacency and sensitivity to centennial- through millennial-scale climate change in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Colorado, U.S.A.
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Data from: Fire-regime complacency and sensitivity to centennial- through millennial-scale climate change in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Colorado, U.S.A.
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Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change
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