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13 results for “land use, climate, scenario”
Review of existing modelling studies focusing on specific soil-based ecosystem services (SES) and threats (ST) including climate change, management and land use change scenarios.
<p><span>We </span><span>reviewed existing modelling studies focusing on soil ecosystem services (SES) and soil threats (ST) including climate change, land use change and management scenarios. A publication has been submitted and is currently being reviewed. The title of the manuscript is: </span><span>Assessing and mapping soil ecosystem services and soil threats changes in agroecosystems through scenario-based approaches – a systematic review. </span></p> <p><span>Work was split between various authors. All Co-authors were working on either one or more SES or one ST. Excel sheets were prepared by INRA and BFW to ensure the comparability of results that members extracted from the papers found. Literature search was done in Scopus and Web of Science. The final list of related publications is reported here. <br></span></p>
Land Use - Crop - Climate Scenarios Oudlandpolder
<p>Regionalized time series for 2020-2100 with a day resolution based on different combinations of 4 climate RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) and 4 Shared Social-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios for the Oudlandpolder region in Belgium. This coastal lowland (polder) faces challenges related to climate adaptation and mitigation to be addressed by, amongst others, a proper balance of water distribution for the two main land use categories: agriculture and nature. The following variables are included:</p> <ul> <li>land use cover (agriculture and nature) in ha related to SSP</li> <li>crop fractions for 13 crops related to SSP</li> <li>crop factors Kc (dimensionless)</li> <li>precipitation in mm/day related to RCP</li> <li>potential evapotranspiration in mm/day related to RCP</li> <li>sea level in mm wrt January 1, 2020 related to RCP </li> <li>Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) effluence ratio wrt to 2020</li> </ul> <p>RCP scenarios: RCP 2.6; RCP 4.5; RCP 6.0; RCP 8.5</p> <p>SSP scenarios: SSP1; SSP2; SSP4; SSP5. These SSP scenarios are based on consistent projections for land use change (agriculture vs nature) and crop schemes. </p> <p>Land use cover change was modelled with the VITO spatial-dynamic RuimteModel (see references below). </p> <p>Uncertainty in the RCP scenarios has been addressed by working with an ensemble of the following 8 climate models:</p> <ul> <li>BNU-ESM</li> <li>CSIRO-Mk3-6-0</li> <li>GFDL-ESM2G</li> <li>GFDL-ESM2M</li> <li>IPSL-CM5A-MR</li> <li>MPI-ESM-LR</li> <li>MPI-ESM-MR</li> <li>NorESM1-M</li> </ul> <p>The scenarios point at potential seasonal water shortages for certain combinations of RCP and SSP scenarios, in particular during the dry summer season. Climate adaptation actions can also benefit to a limited extent from identifying the climate robust crop schemes. </p> <p>For further information see: </p> <ul> <li>https://h2020-coastal.eu</li> <li>https://h2020-coastal.eu/publications/flipbook/171</li> <li>https://www.vlm.be/nl/projecten/Paginas/Oudlandpolder.aspx</li> <li>https://vito.be/en/spatial-model-flanders-ruimtemodel-vlaanderen</li> </ul>
Global agricultural land use scenarios for estimating the potential of forest regeneration for climate mitigation to 2050
<p>The dataset includes 90 global food system and land use scenarios developed with the model BioBaM-GHG 2.0. The scenarios have been developed for assessing the global potential of forest regeneration for climate mitigation to 2050 under various food system pathways, i.e. diets, crop yield developments, land requirements for energy crops, and two variants of grassland use.</p> <p>The scenarios include the following data on country level: Land use and land-use change, cropland area by crop group, grazing area by quality classes, crop production by crop groups, crop consumption by crop groups and use types, crop wastes (losses), net imports/exports, production and consumption of animal products, grass supply and demand, GHG emissions from land-use change, GHG emissions from agricultural activities, and total cumulated GHG emissions.</p> <p>The main model result in this context, cumulative carbon sequestration from forest regeneration until 2050, is calculated as difference between the parameters "GHG emissions from land use change (cumulative) (Mt CO2e)" and "GHG emissions from land use change excluding C stock changes from natural succession (cumulative) (Mt CO2e)".</p> <p>Please refer to the related publication "Exploring the option space for land system futures at regional to global scales: The diagnostic agro-food, land use and greenhouse gas emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0" (Kalt et al., 2021 - currently under review at Ecological Modelling) for further information.</p> <p>This work was funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) within project P29130-G27 GELUC.</p>
Reptile diversity patterns under climate and land use change scenarios in a subtropical montane landscape in Mexico
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Dataset for Bukovsky et al. (2021): "SSP-Based Land Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections"
<p>This dataset contains derived data and model data necessary for reproducing the results found in "SSP-Based Land Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections" by Melissa S. Bukovsky, Jing Gao, Linda O. Mearns, and Brian C. O'Neill. This dataset contains data not otherwise available in other public archives, as noted in Bukovsky et al. (2021, Earth's Future; preprint available at https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504141.2). That is, this dataset contains data from the land-use change simulations that are not part of NA-CORDEX (na-cordex.org), but which are complementary to those published in the NA-CORDEX archive.</p>
Data from: Predicting range shifts of the giant pandas under future climate and land use scenarios
<p><span><strong>Aim</strong>:</span><span> Understanding and predicting how species will respond to global environmental change (i.e., climate and land use change) is essential to efficiently inform conservation and management strategies for authorities and managers. Here, we assessed the combined effect of future climate and land use change on the potential range shifts of the giant pandas (<em>Ailuropoda melanoleuca</em>). </span></p> <p><span><strong>Location</strong>:</span><span> Sichuan Province, China.</span></p> <p><span><strong>Methods</strong>: </span><span>We used ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast range shifts of the giant pandas by the 2050s and 2070s under four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We also</span><span> compared the differences in </span><span>distributional changes of giant pandas among the five mountains in the study area. </span></p> <p><span><strong>Results</strong>: </span><span>Our ensemble SDMs exhibited good model performance in terms of both AUC (0.931) and TSS (0.747), and suggested that precipitation seasonality, annual mean temperature, the proportion of forest cover and total annual precipitation are the most important factors in shaping the current distribution patterns for the giant pandas. Our projections of future species distribution also suggested a range expansion under an optimistic greenhouse gas emission, while suggesting a range contraction under a pessimistic greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, we found that there is considerable variation in the projected range change patterns among the five mountains in the study area. Especially, the suitable habitat of the giant panda is predicted to increase under all scenarios in Minshan mountains, while is predicted to decrease under all scenarios in Daxiangling and Liangshan mountains, indicating the vulnerability of the giant pandas at low latitudes. </span></p> <p><span><strong>Main conclusions</strong>: </span><span>Our findings highlight the importance of an integrated approach that combines climate and land use change to predict the future species distribution and the need for a spatial explicit consideration of the projected range change patterns of target species for guiding conservation and management strategies. </span></p>
Data and code of Land use scenario for 'Development of common socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessments in Japan'
<p>Land use scenario calculation: Executable files, source code files and data files<br> This dataset contains program codes and input data used for reproducing land use scenarios explained in Chapter 5.2 in Yoshikawa et al. (submitted to GMDD).</p> <p>We found a few fatal errors in the following code.<br> These code were fixed from version 2 (http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7090670).<br> /Step3/a01_calc_land_use.py<br> /Step3/a01_calc_land_use_std.py<br> /Step3/a01_calc_land_use_rate.py<br> /Step3/run03.bat</p>
Code and data to reproduce the results of the paper: "Land Use Patterns and Climate Change---A Modeled Scenario of the Late Bronze Age in Southern Greece"
<p>Code and data to reproduce the results of Knitter et al. (2019): Land Use Patterns and Climate Change---A Modeled Scenario of the Late Bronze Age in Southern Greece. ERL.</p>
Data from: Predicting range shifts of pikas (Mammalia, Ochotonidae) in China under scenarios incorporating land-use change, climate change, and dispersal limitations
<p><span>Two of the most important forces affecting biodiversity are land-use change (LUC) and global climate change (GCC). Previous studies have modeled their impacts on species separately and together, but few have done so for multiple species with dispersal limitations incorporated into the models.</span></p> <p><span>We integrate species distribution models plus a dispersal model to predict LUC and GCC impacts on the ranges of five species of pikas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region of China. Pikas are sensitive to land-use and climate change, and have limited dispersal abilities.</span></p> <p><span>The predicted impacts of LUC and GCC on pikas vary between species as well as between LUC and GCC projections. Incorporation of dispersal limitations appreciably restricts the amount of colonized habitat. For all five species, the amount of habitat abandoned or colonized when LUC and GCC are modeled together is less than the sum of LUC and GCC modeled separately. Three of the five species experience a net increase in occupied habitat by 2080 relative to their current ranges under all modeled projections. However, relative to a "Dispersal Only" baseline scenario that assumes no environmental change but continued range expansion into suitable, unoccupied habitat, all five species suffer a net loss of occupied habitat by 2080 under some or all projections.</span></p> <p><span>Predictions of future distributions of species based solely on LUC or GCC, as well as predictions assuming additive impacts, can be misleading. Inclusion of dispersal limitations in models markedly alters predicted future distributions of species. The use of a "Dispersal Only" scenario provides a different and perhaps more accurate way to gauge net impacts to species. Future work should consider incorporating all these parameters to better predict the impacts of LUC and GCC on biodiversity.</span></p>
Data from: Predicting range shifts of pikas (Mammalia, Ochotonidae) in China under scenarios incorporating land-use change, climate change, and dispersal limitations
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Data from: Predicting range shifts of the giant pandas under future climate and land use scenarios
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Results and plotting scripts for the manuscript 'SuCCESs – a global IAM for exploring the interactions between energy, materials, land-use and climate systems in long-term scenarios'
<p><br>This archives the results for the manuscript 'SuCCESs – a global IAM for exploring the interactions between energy, materials, land-use and climate systems in long-term scenarios'</p> <p>For the model version used to create these results, please see: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13981520</p> <p>Files to reproduce the figures, in R language:<br>SuCCESs validation.R - Reads GDX files and produces plots for energy and emissions.<br>SuCCESs validation MC.R - The same, but with the Monte Carlo GDXs.</p> <p>External data sources:</p> <p>***<br>GHG emissions are from IGCC and PRIMAP</p> <p>IGCC: https://climatechangetracker.org/igcc (CC-BY license)</p> <p>PRIMAP:<br>Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gieseke, Robert; Gebel, Ronja; Stevens, David; Krapp, Mario; Rocha, Marcia (2016): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 571-603, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-571-2016<br>Gütschow, Johannes ; Busch, Daniel ; Pflüger, Mika (2024): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023) v2.6. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13752654<br>https://primap.org/primap-hist/ (CC-BY-4.0 license)</p> <p>***<br>Historical energy production and use data are from IEA Energy Statistics Data Browser (CC BY 4.0 licence).<br>https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser?country=WORLD&fuel=CO2%20emissions&indicator=CO2BySource</p> <p>***<br>IAM results are from the SSP database: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb </p> <p>Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds, Brian C. O’Neill, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Rob Dellink, Oliver Fricko, Wolfgang Lutz, Alexander Popp, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Samir KC, Marian Leimbach, Leiwen Jiang, Tom Kram, Shilpa Rao, Johannes Emmerling, Kristie Ebi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlík, Florian Humpenöder, Lara Aleluia Da Silva, Steve Smith, Elke Stehfest, Valentina Bosetti, Jiyong Eom, David Gernaat, Toshihiko Masui, Joeri Rogelj, Jessica Strefler, Laurent Drouet, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Mathijs Harmsen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Lavinia Baumstark, Jonathan C. Doelman, Mikiko Kainuma, Zbigniew Klimont, Giacomo Marangoni, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Michael Obersteiner, Andrzej Tabeau, Massimo Tavoni.<br>The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environmental Change, Volume 42, Pages 153-168, 2017,<br>DOI:110.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009</p> <p>Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K.V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D.P., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Tavoni, M., Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change 8, 2018, 325-332.<br>DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3</p>
Data from: A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness
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