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20 results for “luck”
"I made the recording because Iam an amateur recording engineer and also work for a radio station. At the time, Iwas researching for a religious programme, for the radio and by pure chance and good luck, Iwas in the centre of York at the time the street preacher was there. Iam building up a personal library of 'ambient sounds' to use on various radio shows as 'sound effects'. The recording was taken outside St Helen's Church in St Helen's Square, in the centre of York. There was a fairly large crowd walking about, shopping. It was a Saturday. Some people were standing and listening to the man, some were mocking him, others didn't even notice. It was a sunny day, with a slight wind. St Helen's square is a large 'meeting place' for people with seats, flowers and usually musicians. I live in the centre of York and hear a lot of very interesting sounds there, everything from busking musicians, to many foreign languages, church bells, animals and much more. Ireally liked the recording of the preacher as it is quite clear that he passionately believes what he is saying. He was unaware that Iwas recording him. Iwish Ihad captured his whole sermon. He, and other members of his church visit the centre of York quite often, and preach there. Idon't know the name of his church." [Jools/vedas]19 in Collecting Sounds. Online Sharing of Field Recordings as Cultural Practice
"I made the recording because Iam an amateur recording engineer and also work for a radio station. At the time, Iwas researching for a religious programme, for the radio and by pure chance and good luck, Iwas in the centre of York at the time the street preacher was there. Iam building up a personal library of 'ambient sounds' to use on various radio shows as 'sound effects'. The recording was taken outside St Helen's Church in St Helen's Square, in the centre of York. There was a fairly large crowd walking about, shopping. It was a Saturday. Some people were standing and listening to the man, some were mocking him, others didn't even notice. It was a sunny day, with a slight wind. St Helen's square is a large 'meeting place' for people with seats, flowers and usually musicians. I live in the centre of York and hear a lot of very interesting sounds there, everything from busking musicians, to many foreign languages, church bells, animals and much more. Ireally liked the recording of the preacher as it is quite clear that he passionately believes what he is saying. He was unaware that Iwas recording him. Iwish Ihad captured his whole sermon. He, and other members of his church visit the centre of York quite often, and preach there. Idon't know the name of his church." [Jools/vedas]19
Data from: Luck, skill, and depth of competition in games and social hierarchies
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R code for Snyder, Ellner, and Hooker, "Time and chance: using age partitioning to understand how luck drives variation in reproductive success"
<p>Over the course of individual lifetimes, luck usually explains a large fraction of the between- individual variation in lifespan or lifetime reproductive output (LRO) within a population, while variation in individual traits or "quality" explains much less. To understand how, where in the life cycle, and through which demographic processes luck trumps trait variation, we show how to partition by age the contributions of luck and trait variation to LRO variance, and how to quantify three distinct components of luck. We apply these tools to several empirical case studies.</p> <p>We find that luck swamps effects of trait variation at all ages, primarily due to randomness in individual state dynamics ("state trajectory luck"). Luck early in life is most important. Very early state trajectory luck generally determines whether or not an individual ever breeds, likely by ensuring that they are not dead or doomed quickly. Less early luck drives variation in success among those breeding at least once. Consequently, the importance of luck often has a sharp peak early in life, or two peaks. We suggest that ages/stages where the importance luck peaks are potential targets for interventions to benefit a population of concern, different from those identified by eigenvalue elasticity analysis.</p>
Data from: When are extinctions simply bad luck? rarefaction as a framework for disentangling selective and stochastic extinctions
1. A key challenge in conservation biology is that not all species are equally likely to go extinct when faced with a disturbance. Traditionally, differences in species extinction risk are considered a form of extinction selectivity, a nanrondom process by which species' extinction risks are associated with their traits. While selectivity clearly contributes to varation in extinction among taxa, it is also clear that rare species are more likely to go extinct than are common species. While obvious, this law of extinction suggests that random chance, operating on species abundance, plays an important role in the extinction process. Unless ecologists and conservation biologists can disentangle random and nonrandom extinction processes, then the prediction and prevention of future extinctions will continue to be an elusive challenge. 2. We suggest that a modified version of a common null model procedure, rarefaction, can be used to disentangle the influence of stochastic species loss from selective nonrandom processes. To this end we applied a rarefaction based null model to three published data sets to characterize the influence of species rarity in driving biodiversity loss following three disturbance events: i) disease-associated bat declines; ii) disease-associated amphibian declines; and iii) habitat loss and invasive species-associated gastropod declines. For each case study, we used rarefaction to generate null expectations of stochastic biodiversity loss and species-specific extinction probabilities. 3. In each of our case studies we find evidence for random and nonrandom (selective) extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering that some species extinctions are the result of stochastic processes, i.e., bad luck. 4. Policy Implications If there is a first law of extinction, it is that rare species are most likely than common species to go extinct. We suggest that taking this law into account in analyses of extinction risk is critical to the identification of selective extinctions. Our results suggest that rarefaction can be used to identify nonrandom decline, extirpation, and extinction events and provide an important baseline comparison point for future extinction analyses.12-Jul-2019
Data from: Luck in food-finding affects individual performance and population trajectories
Energy harvesting by animals is important because it provides the power needed for all metabolic processes. Beyond this, efficient food-finding enhances individual fitness [1] and population viability [2], although rates of energy accumulation are affected by the environment and food distribution. Typically, differences between individuals in the rate of food acquisition are attributed to varying competencies [3] even though food encounter rates are known to be probabilistic [4]. We used animal-attached technology to quantify food intake in four disparate free-living vertebrates (condors, cheetahs, penguins and sheep) and found that inter-individual variability depended critically on the probability of food encounter. We modelled this to reveal that animals taking rarer food, such as apex predators and scavengers, are particularly susceptible to breeding failure because this variability results in larger proportions of the population failing to accrue the necessary resources for their young before they starve, and because even small changes in food abundance can affect this variability disproportionately. A test of our model on wild animals indicated why Magellanic penguins have a stable population while the congeneric African penguin population has declined for decades. We suggest that such models predicting probabilistic ruin can help predict the fortunes of species operating under globally changing conditions.
Good luck Ishinomaki signboard(photogrammetry)
On April 11, 2011, exactly one month after the day of the Great East Japan Earthquake, a large signboard was created and installed with the hope of encouraging the local people not to be defeated by the tsunami. Ever since then, it has become a symbol of reconstruction and a place visited by many people from inside and outside of the prefecture. 東日本大震災が起きた日からちょうど1カ月後の2011年4月11日に、「津波に負けたくない、地域の人々を励ましたい」という思いで作成し、設置された大看板。以来ずっと、復興のシンボルとして県内外から多くの人が訪れる場所となりました。 https://www.umimachi-sanpo.com/spot100/026-2/ 📍 [石巻南浜津波復興祈念公園, 石巻市, 宮城県](https://scaniver.se/L38.41881,141.30174) Source: Objaverse 1.0 / Sketchfab
厄除け祈願の御札 Prayer for protection from bad luck
# Prayer for protection from bad luck when I was 25. The talisman to ward off bad luck I received at the Kitaguchi Hongu Fuji Sengen Shrine in the year I turned 25. I always felt that it was protecting me. Therefore, I could not return it to the shrine. This time, I decided to gave it up in the form of a virtual dedication. The image of the prayer remains with me in the clear, along with our memories, and the object returns to the earth. I think this is a very interesting new form of dedication. # 厄除け祈願の御札 25歳の年に、北口本宮富士浅間神社でいただいた厄除けの御札。 いつも護っていただいている気がしていました。 それゆえなかなか神社にお戻しできずに、、 今回、バーチャル奉納というカタチで手放す?ことに。 想い出とともにイメージはクリアに手元に残り、モノは土に還る。とてもおもしろい新しい奉納の形だと思います。 Source: Objaverse 1.0 / Sketchfab
R code for Snyder, Ellner, and Hooker, "Time and chance: using age partitioning to understand how luck drives variation in reproductive success"
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Data from: When are extinctions simply bad luck? rarefaction as a framework for disentangling selective and stochastic extinctions
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Data from: Luck in food-finding affects individual performance and population trajectories
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FIGURE 5 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 5. Distributional records of Helicops species occurring in the Pantanal and neighboring ecoregions. Symbols denote the type-locality of Helicops boitata (black triangle), as well as localities with vouchers of H. angulatus (white crosses), H. leopardinus (white diamonds), and H. polylepis (white circles). The white circle marked with an asterisk refer to a specimen determined as Helicops polylepis from São Domingos, state of Mato Grosso (IBSP 31712), destroyed by fire on May 15th of 2010.
FIGURE 4 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 4. General views of dorsum, venter and detail of head of the holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940) in life (SVL 437 mm, tail length 205 mm), from the margins of Transpantaneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Bra- zil.
FIGURE 1 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 1. Phylogenetic relationships of the tribe Hydropsini (comprising one species of Hydrops Wagler, 1830, one species of Pseudoeryx Fitzinger, 1826, and 10 species of Helicops Wagler, 1828) based on a concatenated dataset of the 12S, 16S, BDNF, C-mos, and NT3 sequence data. Numbers at nodes indicate the values of Bayesian Credibility/Maximum Likelihood bootstrap. The bar represents the number of expected changes per site in the Bayesian Analysis. The name Helicops pictiventris is currently a junior synonym of H. infrataeniatus, but it appears in the tree exactly as the pertinent sequences appear in the GenBank dataset (see Grazziotin et al. 2012).
FIGURE 3 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 3. Dorsal, ventral, and lateral (left/right) views of the head of the holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940), from the margins of Transpantaneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Scale bar = 10 mm.
FIGURE 2 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 2. Dorsal and ventral views of the holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940), from the margins of Transpantaneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Scale bar = 100 mm.
FIGURE 6 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 6. Sulcate (left) and asulcate (right) faces of the fully everted and maximally expanded hemipenis (right organ) of the holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940), from the margins of Transpantaneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Scale bar = 10 mm.
FIGURE 7 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 7. The holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940) in the wild, as found in the moment of collection (above), and a general perspective of the habitat in the collection site on May 2016 (below), at Pantanal wetlands in the margins of Transpan- taneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil.
Data from: Pluck or luck: does trait variation or chance drive variation in lifetime reproductive success?
While there has been extensive interest in how intraspecific trait variation affects ecological processes, outcomes are highly variable even when individuals are identical: some are lucky while others are not. Trait variation is therefore only important if it adds substantially to the variability produced by luck. We ask when trait variation has a substantial effect on variability in lifetime reproductive success (LRS), using two approaches: 1) we partition the variation in LRS into contributions from luck and trait variation; 2) we ask what can be inferred about an individual's traits, and with what certainty, given their observed LRS. In theoretical stage- and size-structured models, and two empirical case studies, we find that luck usually dominates the variance of LRS. Even when individuals differ substantially in ways that affect expected LRS, unless the effects of luck are substantially reduced (e.g. low variability in reproductive lifespan or in annual fecundity), most variance in lifetime outcomes is due to luck, implying that departures from "null" models omitting trait variation will be hard to detect. Luck also obscures the relationship between realized LRS and individual traits. While trait variation may influence the fate of populations, luck often governs the lives of individuals.
Data from: Pluck or luck: does trait variation or chance drive variation in lifetime reproductive success?
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Good luck Ishinomaki signboard(LiDAR version)
On April 11, 2011, exactly one month after the day of the Great East Japan Earthquake, a large signboard was created and installed with the hope of encouraging the local people not to be defeated by the tsunami. Ever since then, it has become a symbol of reconstruction and a place visited by many people from inside and outside of the prefecture. 東日本大震災が起きた日からちょうど1カ月後の2011年4月11日に、「津波に負けたくない、地域の人々を励ましたい」という思いで作成し、設置された大看板。以来ずっと、復興のシンボルとして県内外から多くの人が訪れる場所となりました。 https://www.umimachi-sanpo.com/spot100/026-2/ 📍 [石巻南浜津波復興祈念公園, 石巻市, 宮城県](https://scaniver.se/L38.41881,141.30174) Source: Objaverse 1.0 / Sketchfab
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