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5 results for “migration lags”
Data from: Hurricanes overcome migration lag and shape intraspecific genetic variation beyond a poleward mangrove range limit
<p>Expansion of many tree species lags behind climate-change projections. Extreme storms can rapidly overcome this lag, especially for coastal species, but how will storm-driven expansion shape intraspecific genetic variation? Do storms provide recruits only from the nearest sources, or from more distant sources? Answers to these questions have ecological and evolutionary implications, but empirical evidence is absent from the literature. Hurricane Irma provided an opportunity to address this knowledge gap at the northern range limit of the neotropical black mangrove (<i>Avicennia germinans</i>) on the Atlantic coast of Florida, USA. We observed massive post-hurricane increases in beach-stranded <i>A. germinans</i> propagules at, and past, this species' present-day range margin when compared to a previously-surveyed, non-hurricane year. Yet, propagule dispersal does not guarantee subsequent establishment and reproductive success (i.e., effective dispersal). We also evaluated prior effective dispersal along this coastline with isolated <i>A. germinans</i> trees identified beyond the most northern established population. We used 12 nuclear microsatellite loci to genotype hurricane-driven drift propagules from nine sites (n = 896 propagules) and isolated trees from four sites (n = 10 trees), determined their sources of origin, and estimated dispersal distances. Almost all drift propagules and all isolated trees came from the nearest sources. This research suggests that hurricanes are a prerequisite for poleward range expansion of a coastal tree species and that storms can shape the expanding gene pool by providing almost exclusively range-margin genotypes. These insights and empirical estimates of hurricane-driven dispersal distances should improve our ability to forecast distributional shifts of coastal species.</p>
Data from: Hurricanes overcome migration lag and shape intraspecific genetic variation beyond a poleward mangrove range limit
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Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species
<p>Boreal forests are experiencing dramatic climate change, having warmed 1-1.9°C over the last century. Yet forest regeneration practices are often still dictated by a fixed seed zone framework, in which seeds are both harvested from and planted into predefined areas. Our goal was to determine whether seedlings sourced from southern seed zones in Minnesota USA are already better adapted to northerly seed zones because of climate change. Bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra) seedlings from two seed zones (i.e. tree ecotypes) were planted into 16 sites in two northern seed zones and measured for three years. Our hypotheses were threefold: 1) tree species with more southern geographic distributions would thrive in northern forests where climate has already warmed substantially, 2) southern ecotypes of these species would have higher survival and growth than the northern ecotype in northern environments, and 3) natural selection would favor seedlings that expressed phenotypic and phenological traits characteristic of trees sourced from the more southern seed zone. For both species, survival was high (>93%), and southern ecotypes expressed traits consistent with our climate adaptation hypotheses. Ecotypic differences were especially evident for red oak; the southern ecotype had had higher survival, lower SLA, faster height and diameter growth, and extended leaf phenology relative to the northern ecotype. Bur oak results were weaker, but the southern ecotype also had earlier budburst and lower SLA than the northern ecotype. Models based on the fixed seed zones failed to explain seedling performance as well as those with continuous predictors (e.g. climate and geographical position), suggesting that plant adaptations within current seed zone delineations do align with changing climate conditions. Adding support for this conclusion, natural selection favored traits expressed by the more southern tree ecotypes. Collectively, these results suggest that state seed sourcing guidelines should be reexamined to permit plantings across seed zones, a form of assisted migration. More extensive experiments (i.e. provenance trails) are necessary to make species-specific seed transfer guidelines that account for climate trends while also considering the precise geographic origin of seed sources.</p>
Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts (Van Nuland et al. 2024; PNAS)
<p>These R scripts describe the setup, data wrangling, climate envelope modeling, and spatial analysis of Tree-EMF habitat overlap and mismatches associated with the manuscript Van Nuland et al. (2024) “<em>Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts</em>”.</p> <p>Data included in this study are available from the National Ecological Observatory Network at http://doi.org/10.48443/ybrs-zv89, RELEASE-2021 (DP1.10086.001) and the BIEN R package. Microbial sequence data are available through the ‘neonMicrobe’ R package (ref. 29 in the manuscript) and the NCBI SRA (accession number: PRJNA950128). Climate data is available from worldclim (https://www.worldclim.org/). Additional data sources from the Peay Lab NSF Dimensions of Biodiversity project on EMF surveys in Pine forests across North America (Talbot et al. 2014 PNAS, Steidinger et al. 2021 Journal of Biogeography).</p>
Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species
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