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180 results for “range shift”
Replication Data for: "Ocean acidification increases susceptibility to sub-zero air temperatures in ecosystem engineers and limit poleward range shifts"
<p>These datasets contain all the raw data needed to replicate the results from our paper <em>Ocean acidification increases susceptibility to sub-zero air temperatures in ecosystem engineers and limit poleward range shifts</em> published in eLife - <a href="https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.81080">https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.81080</a></p>
Range shifts of overwintering birds depend on habitat type, snow conditions and habitat specialization
<p>Data and R code accompanying the publication "Range shifts of overwintering birds depend on habitat type, snow conditions and habitat specialization"</p> <p>Bosco L, Xu Y, Deshpande P, Lehikoinen A</p> <p>2022</p> <p>---------</p> <p>The data and code to calculate range shifts based on the center of gravity are provided here.</p> <p>The RData files contains raw data from the winter bird counts with added average snow depth values downloaded from open source databases (described in the paper), 100x100km grid info (grid ID, centroid coordinates and average (geographical) coordinates).</p> <p>The csv file contains the route lengths from the winter bird count transects per habitat type.</p> <p>The R file contains the R code used to clean the data (see methods in the publication) and calculate the habitat specific center of gravity (based on bird densities) which were used to calculate shift direction and distance.</p>
Data from: Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts
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Latitudinal core habitat prediction data for the manuscript: "Seascape topography slows predicted range shifts in fish under climate change"
<p>Latitudinal locations of core environmental habitat for yellowtail kingfish (<em>Seriola lalandi</em>), Australian bonito (<em>Sarda australis</em>), Australian spotted mackerel (<em>Scomberomorus munroi</em>), narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (<em>Scomberomorus commerson</em>) and common dolphinfish (<em>Coryphaena hippurus</em>) nearshore of the continental shelf break (i.e. 200-m isobath) within 145 – 160°E, 15 – 45°S and between years 1998 – 2018.</p>
Data from: Species distribution models of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii, Diptera: Drosophilidae) in its native and invasive range reveal an ecological niche shift
<p>The Spotted Wing Drosophila (<em>Drosophila</em> <em>suzukii</em>) is native to Southeast Asia. Since its first detection in 2008 in Europe and North America, it has been a pest to the fruit production industry as it feeds and oviposits on ripening fruit. Here we aim to model the potential geographical distribution of <em>D. suzukii</em>. We performed an extensive literature review to map the current records. In total, 517 documented occurrences (96 native and 421 invasive) were identified spanning 52 countries. Next, we constructed three species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrence records in: 1) the native range (SDMnative), 2) the invasive range in Europe (SDMEurope) and 3) a global model of all records (SDMglobal). The models aimed to investigate, whether this species will be able to occupy additional ecological niches beyond its native range and expand its current geographic distribution both globally and in Europe. The SDMs were generated using Maximum Entropy algorithms (Maxent) based on present occurrence records and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim). Predictions of habitat suitability vary greatly depending on the origins of occurrence records. According to all models, precipitation and low temperatures were key limiting factors for the distribution of <em>D. suzukii</em>, which suggests that this species requires a humid environment with mild winters in order to establish a permanent population in its invasive range. Several regions in the invasive range, not presently occupied by this species, were predicted highly suitable, especially in northern Europe, suggesting that <em>D. suzukii</em> is not occupying its full fundamental niche yet. Synthesis and applications. Based on these models of potential geographic distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (<em>Drosophila</em> <em>suzukii</em>), we show a shift in the ecological niche in <em>D. suzukii</em> populations, emphasizing the importance of using presence and local environmental data. Further investigation regarding new occurrences is recommended to secure optimal pest management. Despite a continuing expansion, many countries still lack proper surveillance schemes, and we urge policymakers to initiate appropriate management programs.</p>
Data from: Fluctuation of ecological niches and geographic range shifts along chile pepper's domestication gradient
<p>Domestication is an ongoing well-described process. However, while many have stud- ied the changes domestication causes in plant genetics, few have explored its impact on the portion of the geographic landscape in which the plants exist. Therefore, the goal of this study was to understand how the process of domestication changed the geographic space suitable for chile pepper (<em>Capsicum annuum</em>) in its center of origin (domestication). <em>C. annuum</em> is a major crop species globally whose center of domes- tication, Mexico, has been well-studied. It provides a unique opportunity to explore the degree to which ranges of different domestication classes diverged and how these ranges might be altered by climate change. To this end, we created ecological niche models for four domestication classes (wild, semiwild, landrace, modern cultivar) based on present climate and future climate scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Considering present environment, we found substantial overlap in the geographic niches of all the domestication classes. Yet, environmental and geographic aspects of the current ranges did vary among classes. Wild and commercial varieties could grow in desert conditions, while landraces could not. With projections into the future, habitat was lost asymmetrically, with wild, semiwild, and landraces at greater risk of territorial declines than modern cultivars. Further, we identified areas where future suitability overlap between landraces and wilds is expected to be lost. While range expansion is widely associated with domestication, we found little support of a con- stant niche expansion (either in environmental or geographical space) throughout the domestication gradient in chile peppers in Mexico. Instead, particular domestication transitions resulted in loss, followed by capturing or recapturing environmental or geographic space. The differences in environmental characterization among domes- tication gradient classes and their future potential range shifts increase the need for conservation efforts to preserve landraces and semiwild genotypes</p>
Resources for: Spatio-temporal integrated Bayesian species distribution models reveal lack of broad relationships between traits and range shifts
<p><strong>Aim</strong>: Climate change and habitat loss or degradation are some of the greatest threats that species face today, often resulting in range shifts. Species traits have been discussed as important predictors of range shifts, with the identification of general trends being of great interest for conservation efforts. However, studies reviewing relationships between traits and range shifts have questioned the existence of such generalized trends, due to mixed results and weak correlations, as well as analytical shortcomings. The aim of this study was to test this relationship empirically, using analytical approaches that account for common sources of bias when assessing range trends.<br><strong>Location</strong>: Tanzania, East Africa.<br><strong>Time period</strong>: 1980-1999 and 2000-2020.<br><strong>Major taxa studied</strong>: 57 savannah specialist birds found in Tanzania, belonging to 26 families and 11 orders.<br><strong>Methods</strong>: We applied recently developed integrated spatio-temporal species distribution models in R-INLA, combining citizen science and bird atlas data to estimate ranges of species, quantify range shifts, and test the predictive power of traditional trait groups, as well as exposure-related and sensitivity traits. We based our study on 40 years of bird observations in East African savannahs, a biome that has experienced increasing climatic and non-climatic pressures over recent decades. We correlated patterns of change with species traits.<br><strong>Results</strong>: We find indications of relationships identified by previous research, but low average explanatory power of traits from an ecological perspective, confirming the lack of meaningful general associations. However, our analysis finds compelling species-specific results.<br><strong>Main conclusions</strong>: We highlight the importance of individual assessments, while demonstrating the usefulness of our analytical approach for analyses of range shifts.</p>
Accounting for nonlinear responses to traits improves range shift predictions
<p>Accurately predicting species' range shifts in response to environmental change is paramount for understanding ecological processes and global change. In synthetic analyses, traits emerge as significant but weak predictors of species' range shifts across recent climate change. These studies assume linear responses to traits, while detailed empirical work often reveals trait responses that are unimodal and contain thresholds or other nonlinearities. We hypothesize that the use of linear modeling approaches fails to capture these nonlinearities and therefore may be under-powering traits to predict range shifts. We evaluate the predictive performance of approaches that can capture nonlinear relationships (ridge-regularized linear regression, support vector regression with linear and nonlinear kernels, and random forests). We apply our models using six multi-decadal range shift datasets for plants, moths, marine fish, birds, and small mammals. We show that nonlinear approaches can perform better than least-squares linear modeling in reproducing historical range shifts. Consistent with expectations, we identify dispersal and climatic niche traits as primary determinants of distribution shifts. Traits identified as important predictors and the direction of trait effects are generally consistent across models but there are notable exceptions. Among important predictors, there are more consistent responses to climatic niches than dispersal ability. Modest improvements in predictability when accounting for nonlinearities and interactions and the overall low amount of variance accounted for by trait predictors suggest limits to trait-based statistical predictive frameworks.</p>
Variable species establishment in response to microhabitat indicates different likelihoods of climate-driven range shifts
<p>Climate change is causing geographic range shifts globally, and understanding the factors that influence species' range expansions is crucial for predicting future biodiversity changes. A common, yet untested, assumption in forecasting approaches is that species will shift beyond current range edges into new habitats as they become macroclimatically suitable, even though microhabitat variability could have overriding effects on local population dynamics. We aim to better understand the role of microhabitat in range shifts in plants through its impacts on establishment by Q1) examining microhabitat variability along large macroclimatic (i.e., elevational) gradients, Q2) testing which of these microhabitat variables explain plant recruitment and seedling survival, and Q3) predicting microhabitat suitability beyond species range limits. We transplanted seeds of 25 common tree, shrub, forb, and graminoid species across and beyond their current elevational ranges in the Washington Cascade Range, USA, along a large elevational gradient spanning a broad range of macroclimates. Over five years, we recorded recruitment, survival, and microhabitat (i.e., high resolution soil, air, and light) characteristics rarely measured in biogeographic studies. We asked whether microhabitat variables correlate with elevation, which variables drive species establishment, and whether microhabitat variables important for establishment are already suitable beyond leading range limits. We found that only 30% of microhabitat parameters covaried with elevation. We further observed extremely low recruitment and moderate seedling survival, and these were generally only weakly explained by microhabitat. Moreover, species and life stages responded in contrasting ways to soil biota, soil moisture, temperature, and snow duration. Microhabitat suitability predictions suggest that distribution shifts are likely to be species-specific, as different species have different suitability and availability of microhabitat beyond their present ranges, thus calling into question low-resolution macroclimatic projections that will miss such complexities. We encourage further research on species responses to microhabitat and including microhabitat in range shift forecasts.</p>
Fig. 1 in On The Limit Of Altitudinal Range Shifts - Population Genetics Of Relict Butterfly Populations
Fig. 1. Neighbour-joining tree based on genetic distances (CAVALLI-SFORZA & EDWARDS 1967) performed on five microsatellite loci, representing the analysed populations of Scandinavia, Finland, eastern Europe (Poland, Lithuania, Romania) and the Vosges. Genetic distances are projected on a map. Solid lines display the genetic distance, arrows show the locations of the sampling sites. Data
Fig. 2 in On The Limit Of Altitudinal Range Shifts - Population Genetics Of Relict Butterfly Populations
Fig. 2. Allele frequency distributions of L. helle populations of the Pyrenees and the western low-altitude mountains (Massif Central, Vosges, Ardennes). The colours in the pie charts indicate the distribution of alleles (white: occurring in several mountain areas, black: exclusive to a single mountain area, grey: exclusively occurring in the respective population). Data taken from FINGER et al. (2009)
Fig. 4 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus
Fig. 4 Area projected as suitable or unsutable under current and future (2081–2100) climatic conditions (km2) for the three tick species in comparison. a Ixodes ricinus. b Dermacentor reticulatus. c D. marginatus. The corresponding maps are shown in Figs. 1–3 in the main document. Future suitable conditions refers to the area (km2) projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions but suitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential new range). Continuing suitable conditions refers to area (km2) projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable presence). Continuing unsuitable conditions refers to area (km 2) projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e. stable absence). Future unsuitable conditions refers to the area (km.2) projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction)
Fig. 2 Projected future changes for Dermacentor reticulatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus
Fig. 2 Projected future changes for Dermacentor reticulatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585. In dark blue: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction). In light blue: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable absence). In orange: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable range). In red: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions but suitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential new range). AUC = 0.8333 (average over 10 replicates using cross-validation, standard deviation = 0.001113603). Threshold to transform the logistic model output: 0.3816 (10% omission rate threshold). Maps were built using ESRI ArcGIS (Release 10.7, www.esri.com). Projection: Europe Albers Equal Area Conic
Fig. 2 Projected future changes for Dermacentor reticulatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus
Fig. 2 Projected future changes for Dermacentor reticulatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585. In dark blue: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction). In light blue: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable absence). In orange: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable
Fig. 4 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus
Fig. 4 Area projected as suitable or unsutable under current and future (2081–2100) climatic conditions (km2) for the three tick species in comparison. a Ixodes ricinus. b Dermacentor reticulatus. c D. marginatus. The corresponding maps are shown in Figs. 1–3 in the main document. Future suitable conditions refers to the area (km2) projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions but suitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential new range). Continuing suitable conditions refers to area (km2) projected as suitable under
Fig. 1 Projected future changes for Ixodes ricinus until 2081–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus
Fig. 1 Projected future changes for Ixodes ricinus until 2081–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585. In dark blue: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction). In light blue: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable absence). In orange: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable range). In red:
Fig. 5 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus
Fig. 5 Potential co-occurrence under current and future climatic conditions. a Under near current climatic conditions (1970–2000). b Under projected future climatic conditions (exemplarily for SSP 245) for the period 2041–2060. c Under projected future climatic conditions (SSP 245) for the period 2081–2100. Colors indicate areas where climatic suitability is projected for the respective species; for non-mentioned species ("none of them"), the area is climatically unsuitable according to the modelling results. The thresholds to transform the logistic model output (10% omission rate threshold) are as follows: 0.3368 for Ixodes ricinus, 0.3816 for Dermacentor reticulatus, and 0.4298 for D. marginatus. Maps were built using ESRI Arc-GIS (Release 10.7, www.esri.com). Projection: Europe Albers Equal Area Conic. (A hatch-based version of this figure is additionally provided in the Supplementary Material: Figure S11.)
Fig. 3 Projected future changes for Dermacentor marginatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus
Fig. 3 Projected future changes for Dermacentor marginatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585. In dark blue: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction). In light blue: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable absence). In orange: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable range). In red: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions but suitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential new range). AUC = 0.8229 (average over 10 replicates using cross-validation, standard deviation = 0.001121953). Threshold to transform the logistic model output: 0.4298 (10% omission rate threshold). Maps were built using ESRI ArcGIS (Release 10.7, www.esri.com). Projection: Europe Albers Equal Area Conic
FIGURE 4 in Heterobranch Sea Slug Range Shifts in the Northeast Pacific Ocean associated with the 2015-16 El Niño
FIGURE 4. Abundance of the Bulla gouldiana and Aplysia vaccaria in the low rocky intertidal at Naples, Santa Barbara, California 2006–2017.
Data from: Fluctuation of ecological niches and geographic range shifts along chile pepper's domestication gradient
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Allen Brain Atlas
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