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18 results for “state-space model”
State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan
<p>To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point-transect distance-sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: 1) <i>explanatory predictions</i> to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and 2) <i>anticipatory predictions</i> to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved non-linearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and management of wildlife populations exposed to rapid climate change. We provide recommendations for how to improve this approach.</p>
On the computation of stable coupled state-space models for dynamic substructuring applications
<p>This paper aims at introducing a methodology to compute stable coupled state-space models for dynamic substructuring applications by introducing two novel approaches targeted to accomplish this task: (a) a procedure to impose Newtons's second law without relying on the use of undamped RCMs (residual compensation modes) and (b) a novel approach to impose stability on unstable coupled state-space models. The enforcement of stability is performed by dividing the unstable model into two different models, one composed by the stable poles (stable model) and the other composed by the unstable ones (unstable model). Then, the poles of the unstable state-space model are forced to be stable, leading to the computation of a stabilized state-space model. If this model is composed by real poles, it should be divided into two different ones, one composed by the pairs of complex conjugate poles and the other composed by the real poles. Afterwards, to make sure that the Frequency Response Functions (FRFs) of the stabilized model well match the FRFs of the unstable model, the Least-Squares Frequency Domain (LSFD) method is exploited to update the modal parameters of the stabilized model composed by the pairs of complex conjugate poles. The validity of the proposed methodologies is presented and discussed by exploiting experimental data. Indeed, by exploiting the FRFs of a real system, accurate state-space models respecting Newton's second law are computed. Then, decoupling and coupling operations are performed with the identified state-space models, no matter the models resultant from the decoupling/coupling operations are unstable. Stability is then imposed on the computed unstable coupled model by following the approach proposed in this paper. The methodology proved to work well on these data. Moreover, the paper also shows that the coupled state-space models obtained using this methodology are suitable to be exploited in time-domain analyses and simulations.</p>
On the prediction of the time-varying behaviour of dynamic systems by interpolating state-space models
<p>In this article, a local Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) model identification approach is exploited to analyze the dynamic behaviour of a structure whose dynamics varies over time. This structure is composed by two aluminum crosses connected by a rubber mount. To observe time-dependent variations on the dynamics of this assembly, it is placed in a climate chamber and submitted to a six minute temperature run-up. During this run-up the structure is continuously excited by a shaker. The load provided by this device is measured by a load cell, while six accelerometers are measuring the responses of the system. The temperatures of the air inside the climate chamber and at the surface of the mount are also continuously measured. It is found that during the performed temperature run-up, the rubber mount temperature increased from, roughly, 14℃ to, approximately, 35.2℃. By using the measured load provided by the shaker and the measured accelerations, Frequency Response Functions (FRFs) at five different rubber mount temperatures are computed. From each of these sets of FRFs, state-space models are estimated. Afterwards, these models are used to define an interpolating LPV model, which enables the computation of interpolated state-space models representative of the dynamics of the system at each time sample. It is found that by feeding the interpolated state-space models with the measured load, an accurate simulation of the measured accelerations is obtained. Moreover, by exploiting a joint input state estimation algorithm with the interpolated state-space models and with the measured accelerations, a very good prediction of the applied load can be obtained. It is also shown that if the time dependency of the dynamics of the system is ignored, the results are less accurate.</p>
Prediction of COVID-19 case numbers using state-space modeling and wastewater virus datasets
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State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan
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Estimating spatio-temporal reproductive dynamics of fish populations with passive acoustic monitoring: A state-space model approach
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Data from: State-space modelling of the flight behaviour of a soaring bird provides new insights to migratory strategies
1. Characterizing the spatiotemporal variation of animal behaviour can elucidate the way individuals interact with their environment and allocate energy. Increasing sophistication of tracking technologies paired with novel analytical approaches allows the characterisation of movement dynamics even when an individual is not directly observable. 2. In this study, high-resolution movement data collected via global positioning system (GPS) tracking in three dimensions were paired with topographical information and used in a Bayesian state-space model to describe the flight modes of migrating golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in eastern North America. 3. Our model identified five functional behavioural states, two of which were previously undescribed variations on thermal soaring. The other states comprised gliding, perching and orographic soaring. States were discriminated by movement features in the horizontal (step length and turning angle) and vertical (change in altitude) planes, and by the association with ridgelines promoting wind deflection. Tracked eagles spent 2%, 31%, 38%, 9% and 20% of their day time in directed thermal soaring, gliding, convoluted thermal soaring, perching and orographic soaring, respectively. The analysis of the relative occurrence of these flight modes highlighted yearly, seasonal, age, individual and sex differences in flight strategy and performance. Particularly, less energy-efficient orographic soaring was more frequent in autumn, when thermals were less available. Adult birds were also better at optimising energy efficiency than sub-adults. 4. Our approach represents the first example of a state-space model for bird flight mode using altitude data in conjunction with horizontal locations, and is applicable to other flying organisms where similar data are available. The ability to describe animal movements in a three-dimensional habitat is critical to advance our understanding of the functional processes driving animals' decisions.
Data from: Population dynamics of an Arctiid caterpillar-tachinid parasitoid system using state-space models
1. Population dynamics of insect host–parasitoid systems are important in many natural and managed ecosystems and have inspired much ecological theory. However, ecologists have a limited knowledge about the relative strengths of species interactions, abiotic effects and density dependence in natural host–parasitoid dynamics. Statistical time-series analyses would be more informative by incorporating multiple factors, measurement error and noisy dynamics. 2. We use a novel maximum likelihood and model-selection analysis of a state-space model for host–parasitoid dynamics to examine 21 years of annual census data for woolly bear caterpillars (Platyprepia virginalis) and their locally host-specific tachinid parasitoids (Thelaira americana). 3. Caterpillar densities varied by three orders of magnitude and were driven by density dependence and precipitation from the previous March but not detectably by parasitoids, despite variable and sometimes high (>50%) parasitism. 4. Fly fluctuations, as estimated from per cent parasitism, were affected by density dependence and precipitation from the previous July. There was marginal evidence that host abundance drives fly fluctuations as a generic linear effect but no evidence for classical Nicholson–Bailey coupling. 5. The state-space model analysis includes new methods for likelihood calculation and allows a balanced consideration of effect magnitude and statistical significance in a nonlinear model with multiple alternative explanatory variables.
Data from: Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models
Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations.
Data from: State-space modeling to support management of brucellosis in the Yellowstone bison population
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Data from: State-space modelling of the flight behaviour of a soaring bird provides new insights to migratory strategies
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Data from: State-space modeling reveals habitat perception of a small terrestrial mammal in a fragmented landscape
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Data from: Estimating range expansion of wildlife in heterogeneous landscapes: a spatially explicit state-space matrix model coupled with an improved numerical integration technique
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Data from: Population dynamics of an Arctiid caterpillar-tachinid parasitoid system using state-space models
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Data from: Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models
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Data from: State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars
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Data from: State-space reduction and equivalence class sampling for a molecular self-assembly model
Direct simulation of a model with a large state space will generate enormous volumes of data, much of which is not relevant to the questions under study. In this paper, we consider a molecular self-assembly model as a typical example of a large state-space model, and present a method for selectively retrieving 'target information' from this model. This method partitions the state space into equivalence classes, as identified by an appropriate equivalence relation. The set of equivalence classes H, which serves as a reduced state space, contains none of the superfluous information of the original model. After construction and characterization of a Markov chain with state space H, the target information is efficiently retrieved via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. This approach represents a new breed of simulation techniques which are highly optimized for studying molecular self-assembly and, moreover, serves as a valuable guideline for analysis of other large state-space models.
Data from: State-space reduction and equivalence class sampling for a molecular self-assembly model
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ScienceDex guides
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These curated guides explain access requirements, typical timelines, costs, and reuse considerations for widely used research datasets.
Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.