Figure 2 from: Sundermann EM, Correia Carreira G, Käsbohrer A (2021) An FSKX compliant source attribution model for salmonellosis and a look at its major hidden pitfalls. Food Modelling Journal 2: e70008. https://doi.org/10.3897/fmj.2.70008

Figure 2 Starting points for the Markov chains of Parameter scenario 1, their effects on the convergence behaviour and the model predictions. The starting points are evenly spaced in the lower fifth of the space of possible starting points (see the points in the scatter plot in the upper right corner). With this set of starting points, Markov chains converge quickly as can be seen in the four trace plots on the left hand side which show how the paramter values that the model estimates change through the iteration steps of the model calculations. Each of the four trace plots correspond to one model parameter (\documentclass[12pt]{standalone} \usepackage{varwidth} \usepackage[utf8x]{inputenc} \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} \usepackage{lmodern} \usepackage{amsmath, amssymb, graphics, setspace} \newcommand{\mathsym}[1]{{}} \newcommand{\unicode}[1]{{}} \newcounter{mathematicapage} \begin{document} \begin{varwidth}{50in} \begin{equation*} a_1 \end{equation*} \end{varwidth} \end{document} , \documentclass[12pt]{standalone} \usepackage{varwidth} \usepackage[utf8x]{inputenc} \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} \usepackage{lmodern} \usepackage{amsmath, amssymb, graphics, setspace} \newcommand{\mathsym}[1]{{}} \newcommand{\unicode}[1]{{}} \newcounter{mathematicapage} \begin{document} \begin{varwidth}{50in} \begin{equation*} a_2 \end{equation*} \end{varwidth} \end{document} \documentclass[12pt]{standalone} \usepackage{varwidth} \usepackage[utf8x]{inputenc} \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} \usepackage{lmodern} \usepackage{amsmath, amssymb, graphics, setspace} \newcommand{\mathsym}[1]{{}} \newcommand{\unicode}[1]{{}} \newcounter{mathematicapage} \begin{document} \begin{varwidth}{50in} \begin{equation*} , \(q_2\) \end{equation*} \end{varwidth} \end{document} and \documentclass[12pt]{standalone} \usepackage{varwidth} \usepackage[utf8x]{inputenc} \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} \usepackage{lmodern} \usepackage{amsmath, amssymb, graphics, setspace} \newcommand{\mathsym}[1]{{}} \newcommand{\unicode}[1]{{}} \newcounter{mathematicapage} \begin{document} \begin{varwidth}{50in} \begin{equation*} q_3 \end{equation*} \end{varwidth} \end{document} , where types 1, 2 and 3 correspond to S. enterica serotype Enteritidis PT 11, PT 14b, and PT 19, respectively). In each trace plot there are five traces, one trace for each Markov chain. Each Markov chain has its own colour. The predicted source attribution shows small error bars (see the bar plot).