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134 results for “climate vulnerability”
Climate change exposure and vulnerability of the global protected area estate from an international perspective
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Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use
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Data from: Phenotypic plasticity and genetic diversity shed light on endemism of rare Boechera perstellata and its potential vulnerability to climate warming
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Assessing the vulnerability of plant functional trait strategies to climate change
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Data from: Genomics-informed conservation units reveal spatial variation in climate vulnerability in a migratory bird
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Climate Vulnerability of Southern Appalachian Forests
The loss of species due to climate change and their replacement by expansion and immigration of others will depend on individual responses in terms of fecundity, growth, and survival. The approach involves longitudinal analysis of individuals subjected to variation in risk factors over time. Individual trees differ in how they respond to temperature and moisture, depending on their local competitive environment. For example, individuals with access to high light levels can often better exploit available moisture, an example of a positive interaction. By documenting changes in growth, fecundity, and survival between individuals subject to different conditions and within individuals, as their environments change through time we can develop a detailed understanding of how vulnerability differs among individuals and why.
Genomic vulnerability to rapid climate warming in a tree species with a long generation time
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>The ongoing increase in global temperature affects biodiversity, especially in mountain regions where climate change is exacerbated. As sessile, long-lived organisms, trees are especially challenged in terms of adapting to rapid climate change. Here, we show that low rates of allele frequency shifts in Swiss stone pine (<i>Pinus cembra</i>) occurring near the treeline result in high genomic vulnerability to future climate warming, presumably due to the species' long generation time. Using exome sequencing data from adult and juvenile cohorts in the Swiss Alps, we found an average rate of allele frequency shift of 1.23×10<sup>-2</sup>/generation (i.e. 40 years) at presumably neutral loci, with similar rates for putatively adaptive loci associated with temperature (0.96×10<sup>-2</sup>/generation) and precipitation (0.91×10<sup>-2</sup>/generation). These recent shifts were corroborated by forward-in-time simulations at neutral and adaptive loci. Additionally, in juvenile trees at the colonisation front we detected alleles putatively beneficial under a future warmer and drier climate. Notably, the observed past rate of allele frequency shift in temperature-associated loci was decidedly lower than the estimated average rate of 6.29×10<sup>-2</sup>/generation needed to match a moderate future climate scenario (RCP4.5). Our findings suggest that species with long generation times may have difficulty keeping up with the rapid climate change occurring in high mountain areas and thus are prone to local extinction in their current main elevation range.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
Data from: Phylogeography, population genetics, and distribution modeling reveal vulnerability of Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae) and the Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora to climate change.
A proactive approach to conservation must be predictive, anticipating how habitats will change and which species are likely to decline or prosper. We use composite species distribution modeling to identify suitable habitats for 18 members of the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora (ACPF) since the Last Glacial Maximum and project these into the future. We then use Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae), a globally imperiled ACPF sedge with many of the characteristics of extinction vulnerability, as a case study. We integrate phylogeographic and population genetic analyses and species distribution modeling to develop a broad view of its current condition and prognosis for conservation. We use genotyping-by-sequencing to characterize the genomes of 142 S. longii individuals from twenty populations distributed throughout its range (New Jersey to Nova Scotia). We measure the distribution of genetic diversity in the species and reconstruct its phylogeographic history using SNAPP and RASE. Extant populations of S. longii originated from a single refugium south of the Laurentide ice sheet around 25 thousand years ago. The genetic diversity of S. longii is exceedingly low, populations exhibit little genetic structure, and the species is slightly inbred. Projected climate scenarios indicate that nearly half of extant populations of S. longii will be exposed to unsuitable climate by 2070. Similar changes in suitable habitat will occur for many other northern ACPF species – centers of diversity will shift northward and Nova Scotia may become the last refuges for those species not extinguished.
Indicators used to calculate the Vulnerability of European wine PDOs to climate change
<p>Dataset of the indicators used to define the Vulnerability of European wine PDO to climate change. The database includes the values of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for each PDO region. In the case of Exposure we also included the values for the indicators of Cool Night Iindex, Dryness Index and Huglin index. In the case of Adaptive Capacity we also included all the fifteen indicators used for the assessment of financial, natural, physical, social and human capacity. The classification in one of the Vulnerability classes is included in the related field.</p> <p>Please refer to the following article when citing the dataset:</p> <p>Tscholl, S., Candiago, S., Marsoner, T., Fraga, H., Giupponi, C., & Egarter Vigl, L.Climate resilience of European wine regions. Nat Commun 15, 6254 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50549-w</p>
Data for: Temperate and tropical lizards are vulnerable to climate warming due to increased water loss and heat stress
<p><span>Climate warming has imposed profound impacts on species globally. Understanding the vulnerabilities of species from different latitudinal regions to warming climates is critical for biological conservation. </span><span>Using five species of <em>Takydromus </em>lizards as a study system, we quantified physiological and life-history responses and geography range change across latitudes under climate warming. Using integrated biophysical models and hybrid species distribution models, w</span><span>e found: (1) thermal safety margin is larger at high latitudes, and is predicted to decrease under climate warming for lizards at all latitudes; (2) climate warming will speed up embryonic development and increase annual activity time of adult lizards, but will exacerbate water loss of adults across all latitudes; and (3) species across latitudes are predicted to experience habitat contraction under climate warming due to different limitations: tropical and subtropical species are vulnerable due to increased extremely high temperatures, whereas temperate species are vulnerable due to both extremely high temperatures and increased water loss. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the vulnerability of species from different latitudinal regions to climate warming in ectotherms and also highlights the importance of integrating environmental factors, behavior, physiology, and life-history responses in predicting the risk of species to climate warming.</span></p>
VCF datasets and analysis scripts for: The combination of genomic offset and niche modelling provides insights into climate change-driven vulnerability
<p>Global warming is increasingly exacerbating biodiversity loss. Populations locally adapted to spatially heterogeneous environments may respond differentially to climate change, but this intraspecific variation has only recently been considered when modelling vulnerability under climate change. Here, we incorporate intraspecific variation in genomic offset and ecological niche modelling to estimate climate change-driven vulnerability in two bird species in the Sino-Himalayan Mountains. We found that the cold-tolerant populations show higher genomic offset but risk less challenge for niche suitability decline under future climate than the warm-tolerant populations. Based on a genome-niche index estimated by combining genomic offset and niche suitability change, we identified the populations with the least genome-niche interruption as potential donors for evolutionary rescue, i.e., the populations tolerant to climate change. We evaluated potential rescue routes via a landscape genetic analysis. Overall, we demonstrate that the integration of genomic offset, niche suitability modelling, and landscape connectivity can improve climate change-driven vulnerability assessments and facilitate effective conservation management.</p>
Data for: Social-ecological vulnerability of fishing communities to climate change: a U.S. West Coast case study
<p><span>Climate change is already impacting coastal communities, and ongoing and future </span><span>shifts in fisheries species productivity from climate change have implications for the </span><span>livelihoods and cultures of coastal communities. Harvested marine species in the </span><span>California Current Large Marine Ecosystem support U.S. West Coast communities </span><span>economically, socially, and culturally. Ecological vulnerability assessments exist for </span><span>individual species in the California Current but ecological and human vulnerability are </span><span>linked and vulnerability is expected to vary by community. Here, we present </span><span>automatable, reproducible methods for assessing the vulnerability of U.S. West Coast </span><span>fishing-dependent communities to climate change within a social-ecological </span><span>vulnerability framework. We first assessed the ecological risk of marine resources, on </span><span>which fishing communities rely, to 50 years of climate change projections. We then </span><span>combined this with the adaptive capacity of fishing communities, based on social </span><span>indicators, to assess the potential ability of communities to cope with future changes. </span><span>Specific communities (particularly in Washington state) were determined to be at risk to </span><span>climate change mainly due to economic reliance on at risk marine fisheries species, </span><span>like salmon, hake, or sea urchins. But, due to higher social adaptive capacity, these </span><span>communities were often not found to be the most vulnerable overall. Conversely, </span><span>certain communities that were not the most at risk, ecologically and economically, </span><span>ranked in the category of highly vulnerable communities due to low adaptive capacity </span><span>based on social indicators (particularly in Southern California). Certain communities </span><span>were both ecologically at risk due to catch composition and socially vulnerable (low </span><span>adaptive capacity) leading to the highest tier of vulnerability. The integration of climatic, </span><span>ecological, economic, and societal data reveals that factors underlying vulnerability are </span><span>variable across fishing communities on the U.S West Coast, and suggests the need to </span><span>develop a variety of well-aligned strategies to adapt to the ecological impacts of climate </span><span>change.</span></p>
Data from: Too much of a good thing? Supplementing current species observations with fossil data to assess climate change vulnerability via ecological niche models
<p>Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a powerful tool in ecological research and conservation planning. Since ENMs provide probability maps of suitable areas under environmental change, they may assist in designing conservation actions and addressing conservation priorities. However, ENMs are usually implemented by learning the species climatic preferences from their current geographic distribution, which leaves them vulnerable to the issue of niche truncation issues, as if comes with non-climatic limits to the current species distribution posed by e.g. anthropic activities and settlements, and is bound to assume that species are at equilibrium with their environments. These problems might be alleviated by the inclusion of fossil occurrences, which refer to moments during species evolution when such limits were absent, and a larger fraction of the species fundamental niche was probably explored. Here, we combined current and fossil occurrence data for 38 medium-large mammal species of conservation concern to assess the influence of the fossil record on ENM predictions under future climate change scenarios. We found that ignoring or including fossil data yields consistent trends in terms of predicted range increase/decrease. Yet, although adding fossil data invariably results in increased niche width, estimates of range change magnitude improved for just one half only of the species. These results suggest that most species might be in non-equilibrium with their environment, and that the inclusion of fossil data may be crucial to the better understanding of species climatic requirements, hence for designing effective conservation strategies. </p>
Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia
<p>Data and code for the paper "Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia" by Muhlfeld et al. (2024) accepted in the journal <em>Global Change Biology</em>. This an extensive fish community and environmental dataset for 1,762 lakes sampled across Scandinavia (mid-1990s) that were used to model the climate vulnerability of Arctic char (<em>Salvelinus alpinus</em>) under baseline (1990s) and future climate warming scenarios (2050s and 2080s). </p>
Data from: Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate-induced latitudinal shifts
<p><strong>Objective:</strong> Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution pattern of <em>Tetracentron sinense</em> Oliv. and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the effective protection and management of the species.</p> <p><strong>Methods: </strong>The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of <em>T. sinense</em> in different periods such as the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MID), the current and future (2050s, 2070s). On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes of <em>T. sinense</em> under different ecological climate situations were quantitatively analyzed.</p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> (1) The AUC and TSS values predicted by the optimized model were 0.959 and 0.835, respectively, indicating a good predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for <em>T. sinense</em> in the current period are mainly located in southwest China, which are wider compared to the actual habitats. (2) Jackknife testing showed that the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4) and surface calcium carbonate content (T-CACO3) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of <em>T. sinense</em>. (3) From the last interglacial period to the current period, the total suitable area of <em>T. sinense</em> showed a decreasing trend; the distribution points of <em>T. sinense</em> populations in Mid-Holocene period may be the origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. (4) Compared with the current period, the total suitable area ranges of <em>T. sinense</em> in China in the 2050s and 2070s decreased, and the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> Temperature was the principal factor influencing the geographical distribution of <em>T. sinense</em>. With the global warming, the range of <em>T. sinense</em> suitable areas will show a shrinking trend, with a shift towards higher-latitude regions. Ex-situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources.</p>
Data from: Quantifying coextinctions and ecosystem service vulnerability in coastal ecosystems experiencing climate warming
<p>Climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being, known as ecosystem services. Previous research has mainly focused on the direct effects of climate change on species and ecosystem services, leaving a gap in understanding the indirect impacts resulting from changes in species interactions within complex ecosystems. This knowledge gap is significant because the loss of a species in a food web can lead to additional species losses or "co-extinctions," particularly when the species most impacted by climate change are also the species that play critical roles in food web persistence or provide ecosystem services. Here, we present a framework to investigate the relationships among species vulnerability to climate change, their roles within the food web, their contributions to ecosystem services, and the overall persistence of these systems and services in the face of climate-induced species losses. To do this, we assess the robustness of food webs and their associated ecosystem services to climate-driven species extinctions in eight empirical rocky intertidal food webs. Across food webs, we find that highly connected species are not the most vulnerable to climate change. However, we find species that directly provide ecosystem services are more vulnerable to climate change and more connected than species that do not directly provide services, which results in ecosystem service provision collapsing before food webs. Overall, we find that food webs are more robust to climate change than the ecosystem services they provide and show that combining species roles in food webs and services with their vulnerability to climate change offer predictions about the impacts of coextinctions for future food web and ecosystem service persistence. However, these conclusions are limited by data availability and quality, underscoring the need for more comprehensive data collection on linking species roles in interaction networks and their vulnerabilities to climate change.</p>
Towards an understanding of the latitudinal patterns in thermal tolerance and vulnerability of woody plants under climate warming
<p>Predicting spatial patterns in thermal tolerance and vulnerability of species under climate warming remains a challenge. Current knowledge is mainly from experiment-based thermal physiology of limited numbers of ectotherms, yet large-scale evaluations on plants remain elusive. Here, using distribution maps with spatial resolutions of 20×20 km for 5628 woody species in China, we propose a novel approach, i.e. thermal distribution curves, to describe species' realized thermal niches, and then estimate their thermal tolerance and warming risks under projected climate warming in 2050s and 2070s. We find that species' vulnerability and potential local extinction risks within grid cells decrease with latitude and increase with aridity due to narrow thermal tolerance of species located at low latitudes and arid regions. Over 90% of species could still tolerate future warming in most areas, indicating relatively optimistic expectation of potential local extinctions. Our study presents a new framework to quantify climate warming impacts on a large number of species without sufficient physiological information, and provides fundamental references for conservation planning under climate change.</p>
Magnitude-duration relationships of physiological sensitivity and environmental exposure improve climate change vulnerability assessments
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Integrating thermal physiology with environmental temperature is essential to understanding distributions of species and vulnerability to climate change. Warming tolerance—the difference between an organism's maximum thermal tolerance (T<sub>max</sub>) and maximum habitat temperature (T<sub>hab</sub>)—is frequently used to integrate organismal sensitivity and environmental exposure. Traditionally, applications of warming tolerance define T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>hab</sub> as invariable magnitudes, yet tolerance magnitude depends on exposure duration and diel temperature cycles expose organisms to a range of temperature magnitudes and durations. How traditional (<em>i.e.</em>, acute) estimates of warming tolerance compare to estimates from prolonged exposures remains poorly understood. In this study, magnitude-duration curves for tolerances of one cold-water, two cool-water, and one warm-water species of freshwater fish were compiled from the literature and compared to magnitude-duration exposures from 66 streams across the eastern United States. Warming tolerances were estimated for exposure durations spanning 0.01 to 24 hours. Current acute (0.01 hours) warming tolerances ranged from median 6.30°C for the cold-water species to 9.68°C for the warm-water species. The lowest warming tolerances corresponded to prolonged exposures lasting median 3.85 to 5.30 hours among species and were 2.51 to 4.38°C lower than acute estimates. Although acute estimates remained positive in historically occupied and unoccupied streams (6.30°C versus 2.33°C), estimates based on prolonged exposure were positive at occupied streams of the cold-water species but transitioned to negative in unoccupied streams (2.19°C versus -1.12°C). Acute warming tolerances for the cold-water species also remained positive under future climate (6.29 to 4.23°C) but approached zero at prolonged durations (2.19 to 0.09°C) and transitioned to negative for 47.2% of streams. Results demonstrate that acute measures of T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>hab</sub> overestimate warming tolerances and therefore underestimate climate change vulnerability. Integrating magnitude-duration relationships into warming tolerance estimates can elucidate physiological mechanisms underlying species distributions and can improve accuracy of climate change vulnerability assessments.</span></p>
Data from: Heat tolerance variation reveals vulnerability of tropical herbivore-parasitoid interactions to climate change
<p>Assessing the heat tolerance (CTmax) of organisms is central to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity. While both environment and evolutionary history affect CTmax, it is unclear how these factors and their interplay influence ecological interactions, communities, and ecosystems under climate change. We collected and reared caterpillars and parasitoids from canopy and ground layers in different seasons in a tropical rainforest. We tested the CTmax and Thermal Safety Margins (TSM) of these food webs with implications for how species interactions could shift under climate change. We identified strong influence of phylogeny in herbivore-parasitoid community heat tolerance. The TSM of all insects were narrower in the canopy and parasitoids had lower heat tolerance compared to their hosts. Our CTmax-based simulation showed higher herbivore-parasitoid food web instability under climate change than previously assumed, highlighting the vulnerability of parasitoids and related herbivore control in tropical rainforests, particularly in the forest canopy.</p>
Data from: Relative brain size is associated with natal dispersal rate and species' vulnerability to climate change in seabirds
<p><span>The cognitive buffer hypothesis proposes that species with larger brains (relative to their body size) exhibit greater behavioural flexibility, conferring an advantage in unpredictable or novel environments. Therefore, behavioural flexibility – and relative brain size – are likely to be important predictors of a species' vulnerability to anthropogenic pressures and, ultimately, extinction risk. However, current evidence linking brain size to species vulnerability and extinction risk is inconclusive. Furthermore, studies examining the relationship between relative brain size and behavioural flexibility have mainly focused on foraging innovations, whilst other forms of behavioural flexibility remain unexplored. In this study, we collate species-specific information and examine links between relative brain size, rates of natal and adult dispersal (a measure of flexibility in breeding site fidelity), vulnerability to six anthropogenic threats and extinction risk for 131 species of seabird. We focused our study on seabirds, a highly threatened group that displays large variation in both relative brain size and dispersal behaviour. We found a significant positive relationship between relative brain size and natal dispersal rate, suggesting that relative brain size could enhance flexibility in breeding site choice in seabirds, consistent with the cognitive buffer hypothesis. However, this relationship does not persist when we consider adult dispersal, possibly reflecting constraints imposed by mate selection and knowledge transfer in seabirds. We also show that relative brain size is negatively associated with vulnerability to climate change. These findings have immediate application for predicting interspecific variation in species' vulnerability to climate change and identifying priority species for conservation.</span></p>
ScienceDex guides
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These curated guides explain access requirements, typical timelines, costs, and reuse considerations for widely used research datasets.
Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.