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54 results for “winter climate”
Data from: They like it cold, but only in winter: climate‐mediated effects on a hibernator
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Data from: Floral diversity enhances winter survival of honey bee colonies across climatic regions
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Data from: Climate drives body mass changes in a mountain ungulate: Shorter winters lead to heavier Alpine ibex
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Data from: Geography and site-specific factors, rather than recent climate, dominated Spanish wintering bird communities
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Is winter precipitation change over Europe underestimated in current climate projections?
<p>Model output, observational data, and scripts corresponding to the manuscript "Is winter precipitation change over Europe underestimated in current climate projections?"</p> <p><strong>Abstract</strong></p> <p>IPCC models project a likely increase in winter precipitation over northern Europe under a high-emission scenario. These projections, however, typically rely on relatively coarse ~100-km-resolution models that might misrepresent important processes driving precipitation, such as extratropical cyclone activity. Here, we show that a pioneering 50-km-atmosphere–1/12°-ocean global coupled model simulation projects a substantially larger increase in winter precipitation over northwestern Europe by mid-century than lower-resolution configurations. For this increase, both the highest ocean and atmosphere resolutions are essential: First, only the eddy-rich (1/12°) ocean projects a progressive northward shift and warming of the Gulf Stream. Second, only the 50-km atmosphere translates such warming into strengthened North Atlantic extratropical cyclone activity through enhanced diabatic heating and eddy-driven jet. Our results suggest that climate projections using traditional ~100-km-resolution models might underestimate the precipitation increase over Europe in winter and, consequently, the related potential risks.</p>
Data from: Wintering bird communities are tracking climate change faster than breeding communities
<p><span>1. Global climate change is driving species' distributions towards the poles and mountain tops during both non-breeding and breeding seasons, leading to changes in the composition of natural communities. However, the degree of season differences in climate-driven community shifts has not been thoroughly investigated at large spatial scales. </span></p> <p><span>2. We compared the rates of change in the community composition during both winter (non-breeding season) and summer (breeding) and their relation to temperature changes.</span></p> <p><span>3. Based on continental-scale data from Europe and North America, we examined changes in bird community composition using the community temperature index (CTI) approach and compared the changes with observed regional temperature changes during 1980–2016.</span></p> <p><span>4. CTI increased faster in winter than in summer. This seasonal discrepancy is probably because individuals are less site-faithful in winter, and can more readily shift their wintering sites in response to weather in comparison to the breeding season. Regional long-term changes in community composition were positively associated with regional temperature changes during both seasons, but the pattern was only significant during summer due to high annual variability in winter communities. Annual changes in community composition were positively associated with the annual temperature changes during both seasons. </span></p> <p><span>5. Our results were broadly consistent across continents, suggesting some climate-driven restructuring in both European and North American avian communities. Because community composition has changed much faster during the winter than during the breeding season, it is important to increase our knowledge about climate-driven impacts during the less-studied non-breeding season.</span></p>
Where to spend the winter? The role of intraspecific competition and climate in determining the selection of wintering areas by migratory caribou
<p>Depicted as predictable movements, migrations can, however, show important interannual variations, making the conservation of migratory species particularly challenging. Plasticity in migratory behaviour allows individuals to adjust their migratory tactics to maximize their fitness. Destination of migration, and therefore migration patterns, may vary according to climatic and environmental conditions encountered during migration or at the arrival site but also according to competition. In Northern-Québec and Labrador, Canada, fall migration patterns of caribou from the Rivière-George (RGH) and the Rivière-aux-Feuilles (RFH) herds have varied greatly during the last decades. Meanwhile, both herds have shown large fluctuations in abundance. We assessed the influence of environmental factors and changes in population size on wintering area selection. Based on 649 fall migrations of 284 females equipped with ARGOS collars, we used a machine-learning algorithm, the random forests, to assess how climate, resources and population size affected the selection of four different wintering areas. Individuals followed over several years switched to a different wintering area 45% of the time between consecutive years, and this probability increased at high population size. The main determinant of wintering area selection was the population size for both herds, suggesting intra- and inter-herd competition for wintering areas. The long migrations of RGH toward the western wintering areas, also used by RFH, were favoured when the herd was abundant and when the availability of resources was low at the departure. The migrations of RFH toward the south-western area increased as RGH declined, possibly because the past presence of RGH in this area reduced access for caribou from RFH. These results highlight the flexibility in the migratory behaviour of caribou in response to variation in competition. Our study is the first to suggest that wintering area selection can be determined by competition between populations of the same ungulate species.</p>
Data from: Seasonality in spatial distribution: climate and land use have contrasting effects on the species richness of breeding and wintering birds
Aim: Many studies have examined large-scale distributions of various taxa and their drivers, emphasizing the importance of climate, topography, and land-use. Most studies have dealt with distributions over a single season or annually without considering seasonality. However, animal distributions and their drivers can differ among seasons because many animals migrate to suitable climates and areas with abundant prey resources. We aim to clarify seasonality in bird distributions and their drivers. Location: Japan. Methods: We examined the effects of climate (annual mean temperature, snow depth), topography (elevation), and land use (extent of surrounding habitat) on bird species richness, in the breeding and wintering seasons separately, using nationwide data (254 forest and 43 grassland sites, respectively). We separately analyzed the species richness of all species, residents, short-, and long-distance migrants in forests and grasslands. Results: In the breeding season, the annual mean temperature negatively affected all groups (except for forest and grassland residents), and the extent of surrounding habitat positively affected many groups. By contrast, in the wintering season, temperature positively affected all groups (except for forest residents), and the extent of surrounding habitat positively affected only grassland long-distance migrants. In both seasons, the species richness of forest and grassland residents was high in regions of moderate and high temperature, respectively. Moreover, snow depth negatively affected all forest groups in the wintering season. Mapping expected species richness suggested that regions with different climates served as habitats for different groups during different seasons. Main conclusions: All regions were important bird habitats depending on the season, reflecting the contrasting effects of temperature across seasons. In the breeding season, surrounding land-use was also an important driver. To understand the seasonal role that each region and environment plays in maintaining species/communities, a large-scale study considering both environmental seasonality and species distribution is needed.
Data from: What is a mild winter? Regional differences in within-species responses to climate change
Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species' demographic response to climate change.
Simulated winter snow, soil thermal regime, and artificial drainage dynamics under climate change.
<p>This dataset provides simulated winter subsurface drainage outputs from the calibrated Root Zone Water Quality Model–Simultaneous Heat and Water (RZ-SHAW) and four machine-learning models (Cubist, LSTM, Multilinear, SVM) for five agricultural research sites across Eastern Canada (Alfred, Harrow, Kentville, Ottawa-Greenbelt, and St-Emmanuel). The simulations span from 1950 to 2100 under the high-emission climate change scenario RCP8.5, derived from the Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CANRCM4 LE).</p> <p>Included in this repository are:</p> <ul> <li> <p>Winter drainage volume's future projections from 1950 to 2100 the RZ-SHAW and machine-learning models.</p> </li> <li> <p>RZ-SHAW simulated future projections from 1950 to 2100 in snow cover, soil thermal conditions, subsurface drainage volume and frequency, evaporation, surface runoff, and soil water storage.</p> </li> </ul> <p>This dataset also contains simulated annual crop yield projections (kg/hectare) from 1950 to 2100 the five sites Alfred (corn), Harrow (corn and soybean), Kentville (corn), Ottawa (corn), St-Emmanuel (corn). Simulations were performed using the RZ-SHAW model under RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Each site's data includes annual grain yield values and Sen's slope trend analysis with Mann-Kendall significance test results.</p> <p>Users should note the following important limitations when interpreting these yield projections:</p> <ol> <li>Simplified Crop Growth Parameters: The crop module was implemented primarily to account for crop residue effects on winter soil conditions, not for yield prediction. No calibration was performed for crop growth parameters.</li> <li>No Nutrient Stress: Simulations were run without nitrogen or phosphorus limitations for simplicity, which may overestimate yields in scenarios where nutrient availability would be constraining.</li> <li>Fixed Management Practices: Planting and harvest dates were held constant throughout the simulation period (1950-2100) based on historical averages, which becomes increasingly unrealistic under future climate conditions.</li> <li>No CO₂ Fertilization Effect: Atmospheric CO₂ concentration changes were not incorporated, potentially underestimating photosynthetic responses in future climate scenarios.</li> <li>Limited Stress Responses: The model's representation of heat stress, drought tolerance, and other physiological responses to extreme conditions may not fully capture crop responses under future climate scenarios.</li> <li>No Adaptation Strategies: The simulations do not account for potential adaptations such as cultivar changes, shifting planting dates, or irrigation implementation that would likely occur in response to changing conditions.</li> </ol>
Data from: Northwest range shifts and shorter wintering period of an Arctic seabird in response to four decades of changing ocean climate
<p>Climate change is altering the marine environment at a global scale, with some of the most dramatic changes occurring in Arctic regions. These changes may affect the distribution and migration patterns of marine species throughout the annual cycle. Species distribution models have provided detailed understanding of the responses of terrestrial species to climate changes, often based on observational data; biologging offers the opportunity to extend those models to migratory marine species that occur in marine environments where direct observation is difficult. We used species distribution modelling and tracking data to model past changes in the non-breeding distribution of thick-billed murres <em>Uria lomvia</em> from a colony in Hudson Bay, Canada, between 1982 and 2019. The predicted distribution of murres shifted during fall and winter.</p> <p>The largest shifts have occurred for fall migration, with range shits of 211 km west and 50 km north per decade, compared with a 29 km shift west per decade in winter. Regions of range expansions had larger declines in sea ice cover, smaller increases in sea surface temperature, and larger increases in air temperature than regions where the range was stable or declining. Murres migrate in and out of Hudson Bay as ice forms each fall and melts each spring. Habitat in Hudson Bay has become available later into the fall and earlier in the spring, such that habitat in Hudson Bay was available for 21 d longer in 2019 than in 1982. Clearly, marine climate is altering the distribution and annual cycle of migratory marine species that occur in areas with seasonal ice cover.</p>
Data for: Abundance and accessibility of forage for reindeer in forests of Northern Sweden: impacts of landscape and winter climate regime
<p>The survival of reindeer during winter, their period of greatest food stress, is largely dependent upon the abundance and accessibility of food in their pastures. In Northern Sweden this realised availability of forage is notably affected by snow conditions and the impacts of forestry on understorey in these pastures. Whilst these factors have been examined to some extent in isolation, their combined effect on overall forage availability has, to the best of our knowledge to date, not been studied.</p> <p>In this study, vegetation surveys and analysis of snow conditions were undertaken in 16 forest stands at various stages of recovery from clear-cutting. The variation in abundance and growth of understorey species edible by reindeer, such as lichen, were noted as forest age increased. The barrier effect of ice lenses in snow during winter was also noted. Lichen biomass was significantly affected by a combination of stand age, understorey vegetation height, and lichen height. Soil disturbance from the processes of felling, and competition in the vegetation communities recovering from this disturbance were identified as key drivers of change in lichen biomass. Overall, clear-cut forests had some of the greatest prevalence of ice lenses in the snow column, and forage availability at these sites was up to 61 % less than in stands over 58 years in age.</p>
Model data - Impact of Ural blocking on early-winter climate variability under different Barents-Kara sea ice conditions
<p>Model data for JGR paper : Impact of Ural blocking on early-winter climate variability under different Barents-Kara sea ice conditions</p>
Impact of Ural blocking on early-winter climate variability under different Barents-Kara sea ice conditions
<p>Model data from "Impact of Ural blocking on early-winter climate variability under different Barents-Kara sea ice conditions".</p>
Effects of winter wheat irrigation on local climate and extreme events over the North China by using the high resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model
<p>The control and irrigation simulation dataset from RegCM4.7.</p>
Data from: What is a mild winter? Regional differences in within-species responses to climate change
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Data from: Long-term declines in winter body mass of tits throughout Britain and Ireland correlate with climate change
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Data for: Abundance and accessibility of forage for reindeer in forests of Northern Sweden: impacts of landscape and winter climate regime
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Phenology in winter-deciduous relict mediterranean forests as a tool to understand their adaptation to climatic seasonal cycles
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Data from: Northwest range shifts and shorter wintering period of an Arctic seabird in response to four decades of changing ocean climate
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OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.