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opencc-zeroDec 2017View details →

Data from: Species distribution models of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii, Diptera: Drosophilidae) in its native and invasive range reveal an ecological niche shift

The Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) is native to Southeast Asia. Since its first detection in 2008 in Europe and North America, it has been a pest to the fruit production industry as it feeds and oviposits on ripening fruit. Here we aim to model the potential geographical distribution of D. suzukii. We performed an extensive literature review to map the current records. In total, 517 documented occurrences (96 native and 421 invasive) were identified spanning 52 countries. Next, we constructed three species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrence records in: 1) the native range (SDMnative), 2) the invasive range in Europe (SDMEurope) and 3) a global model of all records (SDMglobal). The models aimed to investigate, whether this species will be able to occupy additional ecological niches beyond its native range and expand its current geographic distribution both globally and in Europe. The SDMs were generated using Maximum Entropy algorithms (Maxent) based on present occurrence records and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim). Predictions of habitat suitability vary greatly depending on the origins of occurrence records. According to all models, precipitation and low temperatures were key limiting factors for the distribution of D. suzukii, which suggests that this species requires a humid environment with mild winters in order to establish a permanent population in its invasive range. Several regions in the invasive range, not presently occupied by this species, were predicted highly suitable, especially in northern Europe, suggesting that D. suzukii is not occupying its full fundamental niche yet. Synthesis and applications. Based on these models of potential geographic distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii), we show a shift in the ecological niche in D. suzukii populations, emphasizing the importance of using presence and local environmental data. Further investigation regarding new occurrences is recommended to secure optimal pest management. Despite a continuing expansion, many countries still lack proper surveillance schemes, and we urge policymakers to initiate appropriate management programs.

opencc-zeroMar 2024View details →

Resources for: Spatio-temporal integrated Bayesian species distribution models reveal lack of broad relationships between traits and range shifts

Aim: Climate change and habitat loss or degradation are some of the greatest threats that species face today, often resulting in range shifts. Species traits have been discussed as important predictors of range shifts, with the identification of general trends being of great interest for conservation efforts. However, studies reviewing relationships between traits and range shifts have questioned the existence of such generalized trends, due to mixed results and weak correlations, as well as analytical shortcomings. The aim of this study was to test this relationship empirically, using analytical approaches that account for common sources of bias when assessing range trends. Location: Tanzania, East Africa. Time period: 1980-1999 and 2000-2020. Major taxa studied: 57 savannah specialist birds found in Tanzania, belonging to 26 families and 11 orders. Methods: We applied recently developed integrated spatio-temporal species distribution models in R-INLA, combining citizen science and bird atlas data to estimate ranges of species, quantify range shifts, and test the predictive power of traditional trait groups, as well as exposure-related and sensitivity traits. We based our study on 40 years of bird observations in East African savannahs, a biome that has experienced increasing climatic and non-climatic pressures over recent decades. We correlated patterns of change with species traits. Results: We find indications of relationships identified by previous research, but low average explanatory power of traits from an ecological perspective, confirming the lack of meaningful general associations. However, our analysis finds compelling species-specific results. Main conclusions: We highlight the importance of individual assessments, while demonstrating the usefulness of our analytical approach for analyses of range shifts.

opencc-zeroDec 2023View details →

Variable species establishment in response to microhabitat indicates different likelihoods of climate-driven range shifts

Climate change is causing geographic range shifts globally, and understanding the factors that influence species' range expansions is crucial for predicting future biodiversity changes. A common, yet untested, assumption in forecasting approaches is that species will shift beyond current range edges into new habitats as they become macroclimatically suitable, even though microhabitat variability could have overriding effects on local population dynamics. We aim to better understand the role of microhabitat in range shifts in plants through its impacts on establishment by Q1) examining microhabitat variability along large macroclimatic (i.e., elevational) gradients, Q2) testing which of these microhabitat variables explain plant recruitment and seedling survival, and Q3) predicting microhabitat suitability beyond species range limits. We transplanted seeds of 25 common tree, shrub, forb, and graminoid species across and beyond their current elevational ranges in the Washington Cascade Range, USA, along a large elevational gradient spanning a broad range of macroclimates. Over five years, we recorded recruitment, survival, and microhabitat (i.e., high resolution soil, air, and light) characteristics rarely measured in biogeographic studies. We asked whether microhabitat variables correlate with elevation, which variables drive species establishment, and whether microhabitat variables important for establishment are already suitable beyond leading range limits. We found that only 30% of microhabitat parameters covaried with elevation. We further observed extremely low recruitment and moderate seedling survival, and these were generally only weakly explained by microhabitat. Moreover, species and life stages responded in contrasting ways to soil biota, soil moisture, temperature, and snow duration. Microhabitat suitability predictions suggest that distribution shifts are likely to be species-specific, as different species have different suitability and availability of microhabitat beyond their present ranges, thus calling into question low-resolution macroclimatic projections that will miss such complexities. We encourage further research on species responses to microhabitat and including microhabitat in range shift forecasts.

Fig. 4 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

Fig. 4 Area projected as suitable or unsutable under current and future (2081–2100) climatic conditions (km2) for the three tick species in comparison. a Ixodes ricinus. b Dermacentor reticulatus. c D. marginatus. The corresponding maps are shown in Figs. 1–3 in the main document. Future suitable conditions refers to the area (km2) projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions but suitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential new range). Continuing suitable conditions refers to area (km2) projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable presence). Continuing unsuitable conditions refers to area (km 2) projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e. stable absence). Future unsuitable conditions refers to the area (km.2) projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction)

Fig. 2 Projected future changes for Dermacentor reticulatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

Fig. 2 Projected future changes for Dermacentor reticulatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585. In dark blue: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction). In light blue: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable absence). In orange: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable range). In red: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions but suitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential new range). AUC = 0.8333 (average over 10 replicates using cross-validation, standard deviation = 0.001113603). Threshold to transform the logistic model output: 0.3816 (10% omission rate threshold). Maps were built using ESRI ArcGIS (Release 10.7, www.esri.com). Projection: Europe Albers Equal Area Conic

Fig. 2 Projected future changes for Dermacentor reticulatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

Fig. 4 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

Fig. 1 Projected future changes for Ixodes ricinus until 2081–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

Fig. 1 Projected future changes for Ixodes ricinus until 2081–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585. In dark blue: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction). In light blue: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable absence). In orange: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable range). In red:

Fig. 5 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

Fig. 5 Potential co-occurrence under current and future climatic conditions. a Under near current climatic conditions (1970–2000). b Under projected future climatic conditions (exemplarily for SSP 245) for the period 2041–2060. c Under projected future climatic conditions (SSP 245) for the period 2081–2100. Colors indicate areas where climatic suitability is projected for the respective species; for non-mentioned species ("none of them"), the area is climatically unsuitable according to the modelling results. The thresholds to transform the logistic model output (10% omission rate threshold) are as follows: 0.3368 for Ixodes ricinus, 0.3816 for Dermacentor reticulatus, and 0.4298 for D. marginatus. Maps were built using ESRI Arc-GIS (Release 10.7, www.esri.com). Projection: Europe Albers Equal Area Conic. (A hatch-based version of this figure is additionally provided in the Supplementary Material: Figure S11.)

Fig. 3 Projected future changes for Dermacentor marginatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585 in Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

Fig. 3 Projected future changes for Dermacentor marginatus until 2080–2100. a SSP 126. b SSP 245. c SSP 370. d SSP 585. In dark blue: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions but unsuitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential extinction). In light blue: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable absence). In orange: area projected as suitable under current climatic conditions as well as under future climatic conditions (i.e., stable range). In red: area projected as unsuitable under current climatic conditions but suitable under future climatic conditions (i.e., potential new range). AUC = 0.8229 (average over 10 replicates using cross-validation, standard deviation = 0.001121953). Threshold to transform the logistic model output: 0.4298 (10% omission rate threshold). Maps were built using ESRI ArcGIS (Release 10.7, www.esri.com). Projection: Europe Albers Equal Area Conic

publicMar 2024View details →

Resources for: Spatio-temporal integrated Bayesian species distribution models reveal lack of broad relationships between traits and range shifts

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publicOct 2018View details →

Data from: Species distribution models of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii, Diptera: Drosophilidae) in its native and invasive range reveal an ecological niche shift

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publicDec 2024View details →

Data from: Lagged climate-driven range shifts at species’ leading, but not trailing, range edges revealed by multispecies seed addition experiment

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publicMay 2024View details →

Variable species establishment in response to microhabitat indicates different likelihoods of climate-driven range shifts

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opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Adaptive evolution to novel predators facilitates the evolution of damselfly species range shifts

Most species have evolved adaptations to reduce the chances of predation. In many cases adaptations to coexist with one predator generate tradeoffs in the ability to live with other predators. Consequently, the ability to live with one predator may limit the geographic distributions of species, such that adaptive evolution to coexist with novel predators may facilitate range shifts. In a case study with Enallagma damselflies, we used a comparative phylogenetic approach to test the hypothesis that adaptive evolution to live with a novel predator facilitates range size shifts. Our results suggest that the evolution of Enallagma shifting from living in ancestral lakes with fish as top predators, to living in lakes with dragonflies as predators, may have facilitated an increase in their range sizes. This increased range size likely arose because lakes with dragonflies were widespread, but unavailable as a habitat throughout much of the evolutionary history of Enallagma because they were historically maladapted to coexist with dragonfly predators. Additionally, the traits that have evolved as defenses against dragonflies also likely enhanced damselfly dispersal abilities. While many factors underlie the evolutionary history of species ranges, these results suggest a role for the evolution of predator-prey interactions.

opencc-zeroJan 2020View details →

Data From: An artificial habitat increases the reproductive fitness of a range-shifting species within a newly colonized ecosystem

When a range-shifting species colonizes an ecosystem it has not previously inhabited, it may experience suboptimal conditions that challenge its continued persistence and expansion. Some impacts may be partially mitigated by artificial habitat analogues: artificial habitats that more closely resemble a species' historic ecosystem than the surrounding habitat. If conditions provided by such habitats increase reproductive success, they could be vital to the expansion and persistence of range-shifting species. We investigated the reproduction of the mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii in its historic mangrove habitat, the suboptimal colonized salt marsh ecosystem, and on docks within the marsh, an artificial mangrove analogue. Crabs were assessed for offspring production and quality, as well as measures of maternal investment and egg quality. Aratus pisonii found on docks produced more eggs, more eggs per unit energy investment, and higher quality larvae than conspecifics in the surrounding salt marsh. Yet, crabs in the mangrove produced the highest quality larvae. Egg lipids suggest these different reproductive outcomes result from disparities in the quality of diet-driven maternal investments, particularly key fatty acids. This study suggests habitat analogues may increase the reproductive fitness of range-shifting species allowing more rapid expansion into, and better persistence in, colonized ecosystems.

opencc-zeroApr 2022View details →

Data on where and why species' range shifts are hampered by unsuitable landscapes: for moth species in Great Britain

This dataset concerns moth (Lepidoptera) species in Great Britain and was compiled to address the question: Which landscape attributes have caused differential speeds of range expansion since 1985, both between landscapes and between species? More specifically, does the 'conductance' measured across a network of habitat help to predict the speed of range expansion? Conductance is a modelled measure of the speed at which a species could colonise a defined 'target' from a defined 'source' via a network of habitat patches. If it is predictive of real range expansion rates, it could be used to pinpoint the best places to target habitat conservation and restoration efforts. Our analysis leverages climate and landcover data alongside two exceptional spatio-temporal databases for moth species in Britain. The Rothamsted Insect Survey is a scattered network of traps that are continuously monitored, which provides ideal "target" locations to test when each species arrived. The National Moth Recording Scheme collates verified records of species from all locations, providing the most complete picture possible of the "source" distribution where expanding species could have originated. We used previous studies (Fox et al., 2014) and these databases to select 54 species that were southerly distributed in Britain and showed some sign of range expansion. Then we tested how attributes of both the species and the landscapes affected the observed arrival times.

opencc-zeroFeb 2023View details →

Data from: Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be travelled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land areas and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30x30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.

opencc-zeroJun 2023View details →

Winter range shifts and their associations with species traits are heterogeneous in eastern North American birds

Many species' distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Many distributional shifts are predictably poleward or higher in elevation, but heterogeneity in the rate and direction of shifts both within and between species appears to be common. We found high heterogeneity in the trajectory of winter range shifts for 65 species of birds across eastern North America and in the different traits and trait interactions associated with these shifts across the spatial scales we examined. We used data from the Christmas Bird Count to quantify the trajectory of winter latitudinal center of abundance range shifts over four decades (1980–2019) for 65 species of songbirds and woodpeckers in North America, both across eastern North America (ENA) as a whole and for the Atlantic (ATL) and Mississippi (MISS) flyways separately. We then used linear models and AICc model selection to test whether species traits could explain variation in range shifts or flyway discrepancies. Across ENA, most species showed northward latitudinal range shifts, but some showed no latitudinal shift while others shifted southwards. Amongst ATL and MISS, we documented both within- and between-species differences in the rate and direction of latitudinal shifts, complicating the results from across ENA. No single trait emerged as a dominant driver of range shift differences at the ENA and flyway scales. Migration strategy interacted with insectivory to explain variation at the largest spatial scale (ENA), whereas frugivory and mean winter latitude explained much of the variation in ATL and MISS, respectively. Exploring heterogeneity in range shifts within and between species, and in the associations between range shifts and life history traits, will help us better understand the mechanisms that mediate differing responses to environmental change and predict which species will be better able to adapt to those changes.